That's fine, but what happens when Danault/Arrvidson begin their decline? This season is very likely their peak production wise and we should expect a decline going forward. Danault and Arrvy are both 29 and will be 30 next season. Players do not usually progress much once they hit their late 20's, in fact they typically begin to decline, especially among non superstar players. The Kings have boxed themselves into a corner, to where they have Arrvy, Danault, Iafallo and Kopitar taking up ~25 million in cap space in 2 seasons and those 4 will all be over the age of 30. The 2012 LA Kings roster only had 1 regular forward over the age of 30 and that was Williams who was 30 exactly. Have there been any cup winners who just added players in their late 20's to go for missing the playoffs to cup contender?
Speculation: LA Kings News, Rumors, Roster Thread part VII
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That's fine, but what happens when Danault/Arrvidson begin their decline? This season is very likely their peak production wise and we should expect a decline going forward. Danault and Arrvy are both 29 and will be 30 next season. Players do not usually progress much once they hit their late 20's, in fact they typically begin to decline, especially among non superstar players. The Kings have boxed themselves into a corner, to where they have Arrvy, Danault, Iafallo and Kopitar taking up ~25 million in cap space in 2 seasons and those 4 will all be over the age of 30. The 2012 LA Kings roster only had 1 regular forward over the age of 30 and that was Williams who was 30 exactly. Have there been any cup winners who just added players in their late 20's to go for missing the playoffs to cup contender?
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
Ignoring altogether the increase in scoring, and focusing on Kopitar the complete 200 ft center
2012 Kopitar was a best-on-team despite deployment 57.81 CF% (+5.36 rel) and 53% GF% (62 GF, 55 GA, +6.14rel). 21:20 TOI/GP including 3:24 of PP time and 2:15 of PK time.
2014 Kopitar was a best-on-team despite deployment 61% CF% (+6.41 rel) and 69.39% GF% (68 GF, 30 GA, and an absolutely absurd nearly +20%rel). 20:53 TOI/GP, including 3:24 of PP time and 2:01 of PK time.
2022 Kopitar: worst-amongst-regular-Cs 54.46% CF% (+0.67 rel) and 47.46% GF% (56 GF, 62 GA, and -5.10 rel). Still, 20:49 TOI/GP, including 3:18 of PP time 1:44 of PK time.
He's driving much less offense (5% worse in possession relative to team, never mind the point adjustment), getting crushed to the tune of over twice as many goals against (25% drop in goals percentages relative), and yet his deployment hasn't changed, hardly a smidgen.
I don't give a shit about points if you can't keep the puck out and that's not just me picking on Kopitar. It's the same issue that Erik Karlsson had most years too, and what we were laying into Doughty for the last few years. Its' one thing to cherry pick offense and put up points, it's another to do so while playing winning hockey--Kopitar is right now channeling what DL would call "good player on a bad team" hockey.
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I was at this game and many of the playoffs games for 2012 and 2014. This might have been the loudest I have ever heard that building (minus the 14 cup clinching goal). Deafening. Everyone just shocked we were gonna see the Kings in the Conference Finals. Pure euphoria.
cyclones22
Registered User
The EK reference is exactly what I was thinking. His point scoring was masking his complete inability to help keep the puck out of the net. Now, for EK that's been years of smoke and mirrors, but Kopi is really just recently. But part of the point is that TMc is NOT helping him at all. Just because you have a plough horse who can pull until sunset doesn't mean you should make him do it day in and day out. It's reckless and shortsighted.
MBH
Players Play
Every good team in the NHL is boxed into a corner.
Kopitar has 2 seasons left.
Iafallo is starting to look like a bad contract.
The Kempe deal is going to be tricky.
So next year, hopefully, you're letting brown go. Probably AA too.
Kempe will take most of that Brown money.
22-23 - should be similar to this year.
Kempe Kopitar Kaliyev - 2 vets, one kid
Moore Danault Vilardi - 2 vets, one kid
Iafallo Byfield Arvidsson - 2 vets, one kid
Kupari Lizotte Lemieux - (maybe Andersson).
JAD, Turcotte, Madden, TKachev, Fagemo callups
23-24 - drop Kopitar down the lineup. Hopefully Byfield grows into his role as a top 6 center. Lizotte let go. Turcotte takes the 4C. Team in flux. Fortunes depend on the kids developing.
Moore Danault Vilardi
Kempe Kopitar Kaliyev
Iafallo Byfield Arvidsson
Kupari Turcotte Lemieux
24-25
Big changes
Kopitar and Arvidsson leave UFAs, Kopy maybe retires at 37.
If Byfield and Turcotte have developed, this is great. If not, the Kings are probably sucking or seeking UFA help.
Kempe Byfield Vilardi
Moore Danault Kaliyev
Iafallo Turcotte Tkachev
Madden Kupari Lemieux
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
The difference being, of course, that Kopitar has no need to be playing those minutes when every C behind him has been super effective at at least keeping the puck out. Danault should regularly be getting equal minutes to Kopitar, if not more. Lizotte can play up 3C minutes if he needs to since TM doesn't trust any of the kids. Just go 18-18-15-9 if you're going to roll Kupari as 4C with no faith and everyone stays relatively fresh (I'd rather have the depth playing 12 minutes for a smaller spread but if you absolutely HAVE to keep them down you can easily give Kopi's extra minutes to Danault and Lizotte).
I've given up on the special teams myself but if you absolutely have to play PP1 the whole 2 minutes there's zero need for Kopi on the PK as well with elite guys like Moore out there and good enough guys like Lizotte.
I don't even have to change TM's all-vets-all-the-time philosophy to help Kopitar's deployment. I'd like to see bigger changes of course but give Danault 2 more minutes and Lizotte 2 more minutes and it's as simple as that.
kilowatt
the vibes are not immaculate
- Jan 1, 2009
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Kings fans: We want Artemi Panarin
Rob Blake: We have Artemi Panarin at home
Artemi Panarin at home:
head eyes
Registered User
- Oct 8, 2015
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Gotta give Tkachev credit for sticking around. I thought he'd be back in Russia after 2 weeks in the AHL.Kings fans: We want Artemi Panarin
Rob Blake: We have Artemi Panarin at home
Artemi Panarin at home:
Since the beginning of March, Danault has the third worst xGA/60 on the team with 2.93(just behind of AA and Lemeiux). He also is 3rd among forwards with 21.18 offensive zone faceoffs per 60(behind AA and Frk). Over that same time frame Kopitar is 12th worst in XGA/60 with 2.62 and he is 11th among forwards with 15.36 offensive zone faceoffs per 60.
Danault is already getting more prime opportunities than Kopitar, the difference is that Kopitar has to carry more defensive minutes against tougher competition. I actually think it should have been Kopitar with a 53% oZone start percentage, while Danault had Kopi's 46% this whole season. This might have extended Kopitar's sustainability, but I do think the team was worried more about not giving Danault too many minutes. His highest ATOI previously was 18:51 and his second highest ATOI was 17:47, since they promised that he would have the prime offensive opportunities, the defensive responsibilities fell more to Kopitar.
KingsHockey24
Registered User
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I'm willing to bet a case of beer that Tkachev would've out produced Byfield by twice the amount playing the same number of games.Kings fans: We want Artemi Panarin
Rob Blake: We have Artemi Panarin at home
Artemi Panarin at home:
ibleedkings
Rob Fake
My favorite part of that night was heckling the red wing fans when they were laughing and rubbing it in all game. They stormed out of there real quick lol.
kilowatt
the vibes are not immaculate
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No doubt. I feel like we did him dirty, he could have been an asset for our near-league-worst powerplay. Tkachev had two power play points in 10 minutes this season. That's more points on the power play than Athanasiou (36 minutes), as many points as Trevor Moore (78 minutes), Matt Roy (50 minutes), Gabe Vilardi (40 minutes), and Jordan Spence (32 minutes), and just one fewer point than Danault (152 minutes) and Brown (129 minutes).
Fun little side note here, among players with more than 100 minutes on the power play this season, three of the ten least-effective players are on the Kings: Phillip Danault (1.18 power play points per 60 minutes), Dustin Brown (1.39 PPP/60), and Alex Iafallo (1.47 PPP/60).
For players with more than 200 minutes on the power play this season, Iafallo is in dead last by a significant margin. Iafallo's 1.47 PPP/60 is nearly half Jeff Skinner's 2.84 PPP/60.
By contrast, Artemi Panarin leads the league with 10.14 PPP/60!
King'sPawn
Enjoy the chaos
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No?
Players drafted in the 2019 draft or later scoring at >=.33 pts/gm:
Jack Hughes (NJ)
Kaapo Kakko (NYR)
Kirby Dach (CHI)
Bowen Byram (COL)
Moritz Seider (DET)
Dylan Cozens (BUF)
Trevor Zegras (ANA)
Matthew Boldy (MIN)
Cole Caufield (MON)
Alex Newhook (COL)
Peyton Krebs (BUF)
Ville Heinola (WPG)
Philip Tomasino (NSH)
Nils Hoglander (VAN)
Adam Beckman (MIN)
Jordan Spence (LAK)
Alexis Lafreniere (NYR)
Tim Stutzle (OTT)
Lucas Raymond (DET)
Jamie Drysdale (ANA)
Jack Quinn (BUF)
Cole Perfetti (WPG)
Anton Lundell (FLA)
Seth Jarvis (CAR)
Dawson Mercer (NJ)
Matty Beniers (SEA)
Mason McTavish (ANA)
William Eklund (SJ)
Cole Sillinger (CBJ)
JJ Moser (ARI)
I don't expect Kaliyev to outproduce all these players. But there is a good number of players in Kaliyev's age range who are producing at his clip or better. So to say most teams don't have it, when I'm counting 20 teams from the list above... that's over half the league. I just don't think it jives with your assessment. Granted, this list may be whittled down a bit due to sample size (for example, some have 1 point in 3 games).
What it boils down to is there are some on more successful teams. Look at Anton Lundell on the Florida Panthers, Seth Jarvis on the Carolina Hurricanes, Bowen Byram and Alex Newhook on Colorado.
At least be honest, Beniers, McTavish, Perfetti, I believe are all what, 2-3 up to 9 game samples? Why don't you redo it with 50+ games played....you will see what happens.
I didn't see your sample size quote, so you had already put that in there, my bad.
Tomasino, Boldy, Newhook, Caufield, Hoglander, Seider, Cozens, Kaako, Dach, Zegras, Hughes, Stutzle, Raymond. Lafreniere, Lundell, Mercer, Drysdale, Jarvis, and Sillinger all meet your requirements I believe.
They do, and I didn't see what he had said about sample size....but 23 players, 32 teams, 736 players and we have a list of .02% of the league......not sure if this is the point I'd be panicking over....
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
I don't think there are any complaints about Kaliyev's production. Who's saying that? Sounds like more red herring stuff to me.
The complaints are about Kaliyev's deployment, i.e. he's good and should play more.
The complaints are about Kaliyev's deployment, i.e. he's good and should play more.
kilowatt
the vibes are not immaculate
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» The Ewing Theory
grantland.com
I wonder how the offense would have responded if it was Kopitar instead of Doughty out for the season?
King'sPawn
Enjoy the chaos
- Jul 1, 2003
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Not sure what the comment is. I'm pretty sure it involves ignoring a clear point that there are several teams with players in Kaliyev's age range who is scoring at his clip - so the claim that not many teams have a player producing at this clip and range is incorrect.
This isn't a dump on Kaliyev. Just that getting him more opportunities isn't unheard of, and it's not necessarily detrimental.
Mats26
Vet Movement - What's the Maatta?
- Sep 16, 2005
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I think Blake and company mis read where the league is going and it might cost him and his buddies their jobs. This ain't a 3-2 league no more, we needed to draft top end skill and sign or trade for character. Now we are faced with an uphill battle to acquire talent while trying to salvage the prospects, doing so in a 1-3-1 formation. I really hope the kids take a major step next season because there will be more pressure on them to produce and be able to contribute for another playoff run.
MBH
Players Play
Montreal Canadiens just made the finals on Danault, Weber and Price.
The cup winners won the cup with a 1-0 game. They gave up 8 goals in 4 games.
They gave up 11 goals in 7 games in the conference final.
The GA of the four finalists:
Tampa - 1.93
Montreal - 2.39
Vegas - 2.37
NYI - 2.66
Oh, I wasn't trying to say anything, just giving him a list of guys that meet his criteria, which is still pretty substantial. I wasn't dumping on Kaliyev either, he has definitely shown a lot of promise so far this season.
MBH
Players Play
I don't give a f*** about CF%.
It's just a metric that helps you confirm what you're seeing with your eyes. It can help you find diamonds in the rough, or silver linings in players that might otherwise not have stats that stand out.
The issue with Kopitar is that his production has gone south.
His P/60 is at 1.6.
His high water mark for the last 1.77 or something.
His GA/60 is 2.78 - 3rd worst in his career.
His GF/60 is 2.19 - 2nd worst in his career.
His GF% is the second worst of his career at 44.09 despite his good corsi numbers.
The only regulars with worse GF% on the team are Byfield, Kempe and Kupari.
All the other regulars are over 50.9GF%
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