LA KINGS 2023/4 Regular season discussion

[JJDrums]

TSN has a piece on who is the biggest disappointment in the NHL this year. And the kings have a finalist. Lol
PLD or Ovechkin.

 

[Schrute farms]

Yeah, I think dumping Iafallo, Durzi, and co. was the right approach.

Dumping Vilardi for a huge AAV center on pace for barely more points than my grandmother was where Blake lost me. But it is what it is we’re stuck with PLD forever one way or another.

This ^

 

[chris kontos]

what a paradox- to have incredible talent and skills as a young man and be richly rewarded for employment in a profession you have such little interest in. i think eventually he will get to the point where he has enough money to quietly pursue what hobby or artistic pursuit interests him. i hope that time comes sooner than 2031

 

[King'sPawn]

I’m not exactly stoked with how PLD has played so far but I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make. The one thing he has done well so far is generate quality chances off the rush, generally by powering his way to the net.

One of the faults of analytics, like any stats, is the context it lacks. Obviously we can all agree there are times he shows up with a scoring chance, but there are arguments of how it's skewed.

- as has been used as a defense for him, he doesn't have the most dangerous wingers as far as scoring goals, so what's the quality of competition he's facing? I know you can find it much faster than I can, and it's a genuine question in this case - how does he rank relative to the other forwards? Quality of players he plays against can lead to more scoring chances and easier opportunity for entry.

- he gets a lot of favorable offensive zone starts; since he's already on that side of the ice, there would be more clears to center ice during his shift, so more opportunity for zone entries.

This isn't to say he does zero work. He's talented. But I think there's some unintentional skewing going on with the analytics.

Edit: missed the graph label so I wanted to remove a faulty counterpoint.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Romantic like hoping a cheap sex worker falls in love with you?


The difference though is two players who are more productive would take up the cap space instead of one player.

Inconvenient facts

https://x.com/JWPatarino/status/1735752104927473971?s=20

Another inconvenient fact--you can funnel the puck to the net for less than 8.5 million.

Mind blowing how much rope this guy gets given Turcotte and Byfield as teenagers got eviscerated for doing similar things with worse players.

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

He hasn’t generated anything with the sort of consistency expected of an 8.5M dollar player, all the while contributing zero on the defensive side of the puck.

It’s utterly baffling watching such a physically gifted player float around & contribute so little while being paid so much.

At least with a guy like Fiala, you question the decision making & not the effort. PL, on the other hand, looks like he could not be bothered to give a solitary f*** about anything besides his 2x too small gucci suits & where his next oatmilk latte is gonna come from.

As I prefaced my post with, I'm not singing his praises, but one thing that is quantifiable about his play so far this season is that he's done very well at generating scoring chances off the rush. Among many here, I wish he would apply himself in all other aspects of the game.

 

[chris kontos]

So the displayed statistic indicates he would be more productive on a line with a scorer or scorers.
The present mgmt and coaching of this team drive me bugshit

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

One of the faults of analytics, like any stats, is the context it lacks. Obviously we can all agree there are times he shows up with a scoring chance, but there are arguments of how it's skewed.

- as has been used as a defense for him, he doesn't have the most dangerous wingers as far as scoring goals, so what's the quality of competition he's facing? I know you can find it much faster than I can, and it's a genuine question in this case - how does he rank relative to the other forwards? Quality of players he plays against can lead to more scoring chances and easier opportunity for entry.

- he gets a lot of favorable offensive zone starts; since he's already on that side of the ice, there would be more clears to center ice during his shift, so more opportunity for zone entries.

- I don't see it saying anything about this exclusively being 5-on-5. So does this include when he's on the powerplay, as well as the time his teammates play shorthanded?

This isn't to say he does zero work. He's talented. But I think there's some unintentional skewing going on with the analytics.

I stopped my subscription to jfresh's stuff so I don't have access to his cards that would have info on QoC, unfortunately. Other sites like Evolving Hockey require a subscription too.

As far as PLD's creation off of the rush, the cited stat at least was at 5 on 5:

In no way am I saying I approve of how he is playing overall; he's played like a bag of smashed assholes overall. There is one thing he has done very well, though, and that's create scoring chances when he's carrying the puck into the zone. The talent is obviously there to power his way around the ice. He just does it in very selective circumstances. It'd be nice to see him actually play like he gives a shit.

 

[King'sPawn]

I stopped my subscription to jfresh's stuff so I don't have access to his cards that would have info on QoC, unfortunately. Other sites like Evolving Hockey require a subscription too.

As far as PLD's creation off of the rush, the cited stat at least was at 5 on 5:

View attachment 784473
In no way am I saying I approve of how he is playing overall; he's played like a bag of smashed assholes overall. There is one thing he has done very well, though, and that's create scoring chances when he's carrying the puck into the zone. The talent is obviously there to power his way around the ice. He just does it in very selective circumstances. It'd be nice to see him actually play like he gives a shit.

I understand and wasn't trying to say anything otherwise about you. I misread the title, just saw the axis labels. Thank you for pointing that out and will correct a part of my post.

I do maintain there are other factors contributing to these analytics, but I also concede he does generate opportunities as well.

 

[tigermask48]

Maybe it's me, but if your 8.5 million dollar winger needs better line mates to produce more. Perhaps he isn't worth 8.5 million dollars a year and you've just identified the problem?

 

[Trash Panda]

Maybe it's me, but if your 8.5 million dollar winger needs better line mates to produce more. Perhaps he isn't worth 8.5 million dollars a year and you've just identified the problem?

Kind of the crux of the argument, isn’t it?

For all of Fiala’s shortcomings, the guy produces no matter who you pair him with (mainly out of generating absolute chaos in all directions).

 

[bland]

Dubois hasn't done a damn thing "very" well.

Stats mean nothing. Dubois is 9th among Kings forwards in shots on goal - he turns pucks over at the top of the circles regularly, he VERY seldom generates more than one scoring chance per night. How exactly is this stat supposed to mean anything?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Dubois hasn't done a damn thing "very" well.

Stats mean nothing. Dubois is 9th among Kings forwards in shots on goal - he turns pucks over at the top of the circles regularly, he VERY seldom generates more than one scoring chance per night. How exactly is this stat supposed to mean anything?

That's the problem with this stat.

It means SOMETHING--he's excellent at getting the puck into the offensive zone and on net, but so was Nick Shore and he's a lot cheaper.

There's a lot of circumstances that happen before and after that that he's been godawful at.

I can acknowledge his whole lines luck is likely to change but even as it does they need to do more better than just 'be luckier with your shooting'.

 

[bland]

That's the problem with this stat.

It means SOMETHING--he's excellent at getting the puck into the offensive zone and on net, but so was Nick Shore and he's a lot cheaper.

There's a lot of circumstances that happen before and after that that he's been godawful at.

I can acknowledge his whole lines luck is likely to change but even as it does they need to do more better than just 'be luckier with your shooting'.

Is he? Or is he on the ice when Laferriere enters the zone with speed and chucks the puck at the net?

What exactly is that graph indicating? Because posting a chart like that as "evidence" is a weak attempt at denying reality with zero context.

Is it suggesting that the majority of Dubois shot attempts are from more dangerous areas? He is 9th among Kings forwards in goals, 7th among forwards in assists and 9th in shots.

This is a legitimate 3rd line forward. He isn't excellent at anything.

 

[King'sPawn]

Is he? Or is he on the ice when Laferriere enters the zone with speed and chucks the puck at the net?

What exactly is that graph indicating? Because posting a chart like that as "evidence" is a weak attempt at denying reality with zero context.

Is it suggesting that the majority of Dubois shot attempts are from more dangerous areas? He is 9th among Kings forwards in goals, 7th among forwards in assists and 9th in shots.

This is a legitimate 3rd line forward. He isn't excellent at anything.

Specifically, it's saying he's entering the zone successfully more regularly than his teammates, and there are scoring chances which generate from his entry.

As mentioned, I think the chart itself is faulty, because if you start more in the offensive zone than your other linemates, you already get more scoring chances and have to work less hard to re-enter the zone, as opposed to starting from your own end or the neutral zone.

I don't feel the chart tells the whole story - it's being leaned on by PLD apologists to try and say he's not been as bad as we say he's been. I think it just more goes on to say the same thing we've been saying - he benefits from favorable deployments.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Is he? Or is he on the ice when Laferriere enters the zone with speed and chucks the puck at the net?

What exactly is that graph indicating? Because posting a chart like that as "evidence" is a weak attempt at denying reality with zero context.

Is it suggesting that the majority of Dubois shot attempts are from more dangerous areas? He is 9th among Kings forwards in goals, 7th among forwards in assists and 9th in shots.

This is a legitimate 3rd line forward. He isn't excellent at anything.

buddy im agreeing with you for the most part

im just trying to help you understand that those stats can actually be used to diagnose the issues with PLDs game and that you'd probably be happy to note that they say almost to a word the same things you're saying if you weren't being such a petulant child about it

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

Dubois hasn't done a damn thing "very" well.

Stats mean nothing. Dubois is 9th among Kings forwards in shots on goal - he turns pucks over at the top of the circles regularly, he VERY seldom generates more than one scoring chance per night. How exactly is this stat supposed to mean anything?

Lol. Like clockwork.

 

[bland]

Lol. Like clockwork.

You are using a chart to try to argue that an $8.5 million dud who cost Vilardi that is squarely at the bottom of the third line in all production categories is - what?

Not so bad?

Why?

 

[Trash Panda]

Arguing that PL has been anything short of a biblical disappointment is purely weapons-grade copium at this point.

 

[bland]

buddy im agreeing with you for the most part

im just trying to help you understand that those stats can actually be used to diagnose the issues with PLDs game and that you'd probably be happy to note that they say almost to a word the same things you're saying if you weren't being such a petulant child about it

That's the thing, it's a total fallacy that you can improve by statistical diagnosis. Numbers are just a sum total of very specific events that happened.

Trends matter, not sum total averages. The data gathered from the 3rd game in 4 in October has the same statistical value as the Rags game in sum total averages.

If one is attempting to use statistical analysis as a predictor, you follow trending numbers and not a graph that depicts data that has no influence on the next game. So what exactly is the point?

Its using numbers to support a theory, thats it. And that's fine, but if that theory is that Dubois is doing something "very well", gee whiz, it sure as shit isn't having any impact on the game so just how good of a theory is it?

 

[Chazz Reinhold]

You are using a chart to try to argue that an $8.5 million dud who cost Vilardi that is squarely at the bottom of the third line in all production categories is - what?

Not so bad?

Why?

Did you even read what I wrote above in this thread? He's played like shit this year overall and I never said otherwise. I understand this can be difficult for some, but it's possible to appreciate nuance enough to hold two thoughts in my head at once: (1) he's been terrible overall, with an extraordinary level of lack of effort; (2) he's capable of and has generated quality chances off of his carrying the puck into the zone.

 

[King'sPawn]

You are using a chart to try to argue that an $8.5 million dud who cost Vilardi that is squarely at the bottom of the third line in all production categories is - what?

Not so bad?

Why?

Chazz didn't even introduce the chart. He was clarifying a point I mistakenly brought up as a criticism to it, but he's also been pretty clear as far as recognizing PLD's flaws while also discussing the merits of the data being presented - whether or not they're agreeable with what we see.

We amateurs are basically engaging in a discussion that I can imagine isn't too dissimilar from what Yannetti previously spoke on - they watch players, but they also use analytics. When the analytics don't agree with the observation, the discussion goes into "why?"

I've said it before and I'm sure I'll say it again - analytics in hockey is still in its infancy relative to other sports, and it's much more difficult to map and gather data due to the pace and fluidity of the game. But I still believe in potential.

I remember reading a book when I was younger and unfortunately abandoned the pursuits of the math as a teenage boy who just became excited and curious about 20 other things. This book outlined a process in which dancers were put in complete darkness, but had glowing dots on their joints. The dancers then began, well, dancing. With enough data and using the points on the joints as references, data scientists were eventually able to start predict what their next movements would be.

It was incredibly cool to read for a nerd like myself - but it's information like that which reminds me that every movement, from the puck to player, is basically a point of data we just don't have the current sophisticated technology to capture. I'm not saying that anytime soon we'll be able to predict exactly how a player will behave, but I believe everything we observe can be quantified. With enough numbers, we can get a picture of what is happening, how, and why.

The analytics we are currently working with are clearly imperfect. Pretending like analytics are worthless won't make them better - PLD is a great case, in my opinion, of discussion what data is missing, while also reflecting on how we perceive the player.

Sorry to go on a soapbox, but while I disagree with the chart, I think it's a great opportunity of discussion.

 

[JeanBlanc]

I was shocked with how well Moverare was skating against the Kraken last night. Not the slow, immobile impression I had from previous years.

 

[Fishhead]

buddy im agreeing with you for the most part

im just trying to help you understand that those stats can actually be used to diagnose the issues with PLDs game and that you'd probably be happy to note that they say almost to a word the same things you're saying if you weren't being such a petulant child about it

This is exactly what needs to be done. It's easy to see where he is effective, it's just gonna take some digging because it's under a pile of loafing around out there right now.

Most think he's terrible defensively, but that's somewhat of a fallacy. He doesn't make crazy recovery plays but he makes smart ones. Last night he was out there against Beniers, Tatar, and McCann almost exclusively - 7 of the 8 minutes of that line's 5v5 time. PLD's line draws the other teams 2nd on the road and they played them to a standstill across the board. He's not nearly as bad as he's made out to be, his line does that most nights and he's a big part of it. It's just an easy target as he's not relentlessly hassling guys like most of the team is built to do. It seems a small thing but it's important. Kopitar's line was out vs Wennberg most of the night, which was a slaughter from a possession, shot, and scoring chances standpoint. Because of PLD's wingers other teams are trying to exploit that matchup, but so far it's not working as well as they hope.

He's also producing OK 5v5, it's the lack of PP points that's killing him. He has one less point 5v5 than Kopitar does - and he's playing with a rookie 3rd round draft pick and 3rd/4th liners. Think about that - Kopitar has had our top and 4th scorer with him for 353 minutes this year, while PLD has had our worst scoring forward stapled to him all year along with a mix of Grundstrom (10th among forwards) and Kaliyev (8th). And in that time Kopitar only has one more point. What's more, the difference is because Kopitar has 5 secondary assists while PLD has one. PLD has 2 fewer ES points than Danault who has been with Trevor MF'n Moore all year. So despite the optics and disappointment from high expectations, he's not doing nothing out there. It's actually to the contrary, he's been with weak wingers and is almost scoring at the same clip as our centers on dominant lines at ES. There is also this:

At ES he is 2nd in rush attempts, 2nd in rebounds created, 3rd in penalties drawn, 1st in expected goals, and 4th in high danger chances for. He's 2nd lowest in PDO as well. That's not cherry-picking one or two stats, that's a whole bunch of them. So while he looks like shit he's actually getting the job done, and he's doing it against solid competition. Currently this is the 3rd highest ES points rate of his career, higher than anything in Winnipeg when he was playing with absolute top talent. He's also on a career low PDO bender. He's had two low PDO seasons in his career, the rest are .997 or higher. That would be this one and the season he was first traded to Winnipeg.

I can say that I've never seen a player not match up stats and the eye test more than PLD. But stats are just numbers, they are unbiased and incapable of lying. Numbers can be used to give false impressions, but usually not when they are good across the board. The eye test though is affected by bias, and while I think he looks like shit right now I also realize that GV was my favorite King, and that's going to affect my viewing - especially now that he's on a hot streak.

So I'm pissed off at him but I can also see that it's nowhere near as bad as it seems.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

This is exactly what needs to be done. It's easy to see where he is effective, it's just gonna take some digging because it's under a pile of loafing around out there right now.

Most think he's terrible defensively, but that's somewhat of a fallacy. He doesn't make crazy recovery plays but he makes smart ones. Last night he was out there against Beniers, Tatar, and McCann almost exclusively - 7 of the 8 minutes of that line's 5v5 time. PLD's line draws the other teams 2nd on the road and they played them to a standstill across the board. He's not nearly as bad as he's made out to be, his line does that most nights and he's a big part of it. It's just an easy target as he's not relentlessly hassling guys like most of the team is built to do. It seems a small thing but it's important. Kopitar's line was out vs Wennberg most of the night, which was a slaughter from a possession, shot, and scoring chances standpoint. Because of PLD's wingers other teams are trying to exploit that matchup, but so far it's not working as well as they hope.

He's also producing OK 5v5, it's the lack of PP points that's killing him. He has one less point 5v5 than Kopitar does - and he's playing with a rookie 3rd round draft pick and 3rd/4th liners. Think about that - Kopitar has had our top and 4th scorer with him for 353 minutes this year, while PLD has had our worst scoring forward stapled to him all year along with a mix of Grundstrom (10th among forwards) and Kaliyev (8th). And in that time Kopitar only has one more point. What's more, the difference is because Kopitar has 5 secondary assists while PLD has one. PLD has 2 fewer ES points than Danault who has been with Trevor MF'n Moore all year. So despite the optics and disappointment from high expectations, he's not doing nothing out there. It's actually to the contrary, he's been with weak wingers and is almost scoring at the same clip as our centers on dominant lines at ES. There is also this:

At ES he is 2nd in rush attempts, 2nd in rebounds created, 3rd in penalties drawn, 1st in expected goals, and 4th in high danger chances for. He's 2nd lowest in PDO as well. That's not cherry-picking one or two stats, that's a whole bunch of them. So while he looks like shit he's actually getting the job done, and he's doing it against solid competition. Currently this is the 3rd highest ES points rate of his career, higher than anything in Winnipeg when he was playing with absolute top talent. He's also on a career low PDO bender. He's had two low PDO seasons in his career, the rest are .997 or higher. That would be this one and the season he was first traded to Winnipeg.

I can say that I've never seen a player not match up stats and the eye test more than PLD. But stats are just numbers, they are unbiased and incapable of lying. Numbers can be used to give false impressions, but usually not when they are good across the board. The eye test though is affected by bias, and while I think he looks like shit right now I also realize that GV was my favorite King, and that's going to affect my viewing - especially now that he's on a hot streak.

So I'm pissed off at him but I can also see that it's nowhere near as bad as it seems.

And i suspect this is the sole reason TM isn’t trying to jump start him by cycling players thru the lines or him vice Versa. He’s not scoring but he’s also not bleeding goals or chances so just biding time for him to figure it out

but it’s also a fair complaint that we need the numbers yesterday