Kyle Dubas discussion

[Leaf Fans]

Leafs lose
- goalied
- expected wins/goals
-injuries
- bad luck
- deserved to win



If they ever win a round:
- totally deserve it, no luck involved, Leafs are the better team

Maybe in your opinion.

 

[Ciao]

How long have you watched hockey? It has always been mostly luck and goaltending. There was a skit on TSN where the “insiders” got beat in predictions of series by a literal monkey.

The blues won the cup with a 5th string goalie who played for the bruins team because he was so bad they didn’t have room in their own system.

The pens rode a rookie back to back who can’t stop a beachball in ottawa.

The caps were a post away from going down 3-0 in a series.

Hockey is mostly luck and goaltending. Any team can go on streaks. Injuries bounces and goalie streaks have always been a part of it.

This isn’t new

Poor goaltending can undermine the best teams, but great goaltending isn't enough.

You need good but not great goaltending, and one Hell of a lot more than pure luck.

If you really think that hockey is mostly luck and goaltending then I think you're totally wrong. Bad luck and bad goaltending can do you in, but good luck and good goaltending aren't nearly enough.

 

[Stephen]

I think the Leafs are looking for an Antti Niemi, Chris Osgood level of netminding.

 

[Funk21]

Dubas for his early missteps with the big 3 contracts has done some very Solid GM work putting a great product on the ice. He didn’t get sentimental about players (Hyman) and has been able to find value to round out this team. When there was an error in player personnel he has been able to pivot (Ritchie) and add (Lyubushki) with little cost. He has added some great pieces at the deadline in Campbell, Muzzin, Lyubushkin and, finally Gio. Sure Foligno was a step price but had he not gotten hurt who knows.

He has allowed players to develop in the minors and the number of home grown talent continues to grow. While I have always wined about the size of the players picked he certainly has a good eye for talent. Knies exception on the size complaint, Neimela and a few others look to be on their way to the show.

If it weren’t for the pandemic and the flat CAP we likely would be class of the NHL and we aren’t far off as is. Just saying

 

[Nylanderthal]

Well I think adding new GM would be way for Sakic to get longer leash. They have been stagnated for few seasons. I'm not saying that this would happen, but that might be the scenario if we don't extend Dubas. He will find job in the NHL, easily.

Sakic tried to hire Kyle when he was still just AGM here and Lou was GM. Shanny blocked it, likely creating the succession path we saw unfold the following season.

 

[IPS]

Poor goaltending can undermine the best teams, but great goaltending isn't enough.

You need good but not great goaltending, and one Hell of a lot more than pure luck.

If you really think that hockey is mostly luck and goaltending then I think you're totally wrong. Bad luck and bad goaltending can do you in, but good luck and good goaltending aren't nearly enough.

4 teams have won 9 of the last 12 Stanley Cups. If hockey was mostly luck, something like this wouldn't happen.

Dubas seems to be getting closer and closer to hacking it.

 

[Martin Skoula]

4 teams have won 9 of the last 12 Stanley Cups. If hockey was mostly luck, something like this wouldn't happen.

Dubas seems to be getting closer and closer to hacking it.

The only time Tampa won with Vasi at 9.5 they coincidentally got 9.5 worth of free cap space with Kucherov. Take away 10 mil of depth and they probably don't repeat.

Having good goalies is important but I the argument for spending a lot of money on them isn't that strong.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

I’m so happy that “this team has regressed since he’s been here” argument can be put to rest

I believe that's now 3 consecutive leagues where within 2 to 4 years in control, he has established club records.

Next up.....hopefully move the playoff needle.

 

[TheRumble]

Late to the thread but here's my takes:

The biggest mistake IMO: "If you have time, you should use it."

This was said in the 2018 offseason with regards to the Mitch Marner contract and was a philosophy that he took from Lou. The Leafs got burned hard by this:

1st was the Nylander extension which caused a contract dispute that lasted half the season. Had Lou extended Nylander a year earlier, we don't have the issue. Had Dubas just been less rigid with his asking price, they would have met in the middle long before December of that season.

2nd was the Marner extension. Similar to Lou with Nylander, Dubas waited until Marner's contract expired and subsequently was forced into overpaying for a guy who put up 94 points in a contract year. Had he extended Marner a year earlier coming off a 69 point season, he'd have to overpay for a 69 point season instead of a 94 point season and then Marner's progression would just make that deal a bargain over time. This is something that is very common now in the NHL, GMs would much rather overpay early than wait for expiration and overpay late.

Jack Hughes earlier this year coming off a 31 point in 51 game campaign got an $8 million dollar deal which will kick in next year. That's definitely an overpay at the time but look what happened, Hughes is only 21 and rapidly improved and now he's an above PPG player. Next year he'll likely be even better.

Clayton Keller got a $7 million dollar extension coming off a 40 point season in 2019. It took him longer than Hughes to be worth it but two years into his deal, he's a PPG player while being on the worst team in the league.

You contrast that with Calgary who's facing a similar problem to Dubas.

Tkachuck is his the final year of his 3 year, $21 million bridge deal. He's the 6th leading scorer in the league at 96 points and counting. He won't be that cheap again.

Johnny Gaudreau is a UFA this year, he'll be coming off a 105+ point season in his contract year. He's definitely not reupping for less than $9 million, unless it's short term.

If these players are in your long term plans, it means you have faith in them to develop into something better than they currently are. It's better to overpay before they get leverage and lock them up early. and put faith in your organization to develop them into better players down the road.

Dubas' biggest strength IMO: He doesn't give up on prospects, even ones he didn't draft and are late round picks. He turned the Marlies into a bonafide player factory during his time as the GM of the Marlies.

Look at how many ex-Marlies are currently still in the league and excelling in their roles:

Trevor Moore - This guy was an undrafted free agent.

Connor Brown - 6th round pick from the Burke/Nonis Era

Zach Hyman - College free agent that needed some additional time to marinate in the minors.

Kasperi Kapanen - Late 1st round pick.

Andreas Johnsson - 7th round pick from the Burke/Nonis era

Pierre Engvall - Ditto

Justin Holl - He was an abandoned 2nd round Blackhawks pick. Dubas had him in the ECHL to AHL to a net positive contributing player

Mason Marchement - Undrafted free agent. Unfortunately we never reaped the rewards from his play but he's a very noteworthy Marlie success story nonetheless.

Travis Dermott - I had higher hopes for him but he's an everyday 3rd pairing Dman on most teams.

Frederik Gauthier - He was a bonafide first round bust, broke his leg and worked his way back and was a decent 4th liner for a while.

Timothy Liljegren - It took him 5 years to establish himself as an everyday player for the Leafs. How many teams stick with players that long? Hint, look at the 2017 1st round. The players that didn't establish themselves as regulars by now are on other teams. The two exceptions are Shane Bowers (Ottawa's pick) and Liljegren.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I believe that's now 3 consecutive leagues where within 2 to 4 years in control, he has established club records.

Next up.....hopefully move the playoff needle.

I think Dubas has mostly done good work, but the "club records" argument isn't a good one. Without adjusting for 3 point games, you can only really compare the team to the teams since OT started and during that time, the team's mostly been terrible so not much of an accomplishment. He also started from an enviable position so basically, the team not setting these club records would have been an enormous failure.

The playoffs needle needs to be moved, no doubt about it. Some people were just excited beyond belief about "club records" in November as if it matters. Lose in the 1st round again and maybe some people will still be proud about how we played in November but I won't be one of them. Goaltending is the most important position in the playoffs so we're gambling on Campbell and all we have signed for next season is Mrazek and Kallgren. Other than that the team looks good but as the saying goes, you're only as good as your weakest link and it's hard to be confident right now that our goaltending will be up to the task and if it's not, that's easily enough to sink us. We'll see what happens.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

I think Dubas has mostly done good work, but the "club records" argument isn't a good one. Without adjusting for 3 point games, you can only really compare the team to the teams since OT started and during that time, the team's mostly been terrible so not much of an accomplishment. He also started from an enviable position so basically, the team not setting these club records would have been an enormous failure.

The playoffs needle needs to be moved, no doubt about it. Some people were just excited beyond belief about "club records" in November as if it matters. Lose in the 1st round again and maybe some people will still be proud about how we played in November but I won't be one of them. Goaltending is the most important position in the playoffs so we're gambling on Campbell and all we have signed for next season is Mrazek and Kallgren. Other than that the team looks good but as the saying goes, you're only as good as your weakest link and it's hard to be confident right now that our goaltending will be up to the task and if it's not, that's easily enough to sink us. We'll see what happens.

Yes he started with Matthews, Rielly, Nylander and Liljegren. All GMs start with players. The rest is his. Goal is a question mark, though if rumored cost was true, he was smart not to move on it. Keep building. Upside is three consecutive leagues, three consecutive records. Now to work towards Marlieing the playoffs.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Perhaps fitting versus Lou, Kyle sets the club record for wins and points. 2 more wins sets the record for winning percentage.

Note doesn't factor in changes like ties, OT rules etc.

Yup. So many people either lack the ability to understand that these things are relevant, or they're so desperate to have something to brag about that they just ignore it.

Best Leaf team ever, wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!

It's like the teams that won all multiple cups didn't even exist.

Not sure what's more pathetic people thinking Lou's shootout inflated 105 point season was better than last year's Leafs or people who think the Leafs would still be better coached by Babcock then Keefe.

IMO, the most pathetic are the people who have bragging for years about how great this team is as if winning/losing in the playoffs is irrelevant.

 

[conFABulator]

Dubas was given this squad on a golden platter....Cup dreams seem very real. Overflowing with prospects the cue the disaster.....Overpaying guys, forced the bottom 6 to be a revolving door, no concept of grit, no concept of how important a D core is, cant develop Dmen, Goaltending is a roller coaster ride, deal all your picks. Worse than John Ferguson JR.

Disaster?!?!

I am not going to say that Dubas has been flawless, because no GM should have that bar set, but disaster? You know this season and last are the two best winning percentages in Leafs history, right?

That's a fact.

Your points are not facts, they are opinions and hot takes...and bad ones at that.

He was handed a squad on a golden platter? Really?

The prospects were there, but none of them were signed. He had to sign Nylander, Marner and Matthews and did it. The deals are good ones and would have aged very nicely if the cap followed is projected growth trajectory.

He inherited long term deals for Zaitsev and Andersen, and an extremely poison pill in Marleau's deal. He moved picks and prospects out to get rid of a couple of this and also picks for playoff re-enforcements.

In addition to keeping our core three young guys (plus getting Rielly extended at a bargain), he added JT (point a game, captain), Brodie, Muzzin, Giordano, Mikheyev, Bunting, Kerfoot, Kampf, Lyubushkin, and Campbell.

The prospect cupboard still has Sandin, Liljegren, Robertson, Knies, Abrusezze, Niemenen, Amirov, Woll and we have all of our 1sts moving forward.

Our D is the best unit we have assembled in twenty years and we are in good cap shape (relative to the contenders moving forward). Yes, goaltending is a question mark, but Campbell was an All-Star this year and Kallgren is pretty shrewd depth. Mrazek had a bad year - injuries undoubtedly played a role in that though.

Yes, we have to convert regular season progress into playoff success, but a disaster?!?!

Which teams (and GMs) have done a better job this past decade? That's an actual question...you can piss in Dubas, but who has done a better job exactly?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Yes he started with Matthews, Rielly, Nylander and Liljegren. All GMs start with players. The rest is his. Goal is a question mark, though if rumored cost was true, he was smart not to move on it. Keep building. Upside is three consecutive leagues, three consecutive records. Now to work towards Marlieing the playoffs.

Like I said, I think Dubas has done mostly good work but Matthews&Marner aren't just "players", come on now.

Look at the last dozen or whatever Leaf GM's before Dubas (even Lou), look at the "players" they inherited and tell me Dubas didn't start from a better position than they did.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The prospects were there, but none of them were signed. He had to sign Nylander, Marner and Matthews and did it. The deals are good ones and would have aged very nicely if the cap followed is projected growth trajectory.
...

Which teams (and GMs) have done a better job this past decade? That's an actual question...you can piss in Dubas, but who has done a better job exactly?

You talk as if there was any chance they wouldn't be signed. Any GM would have signed them, it was only a question of cap hit and Dubas didn't do all that well there. He walked into a very nice situation with the talent we had, there's zero question about it.

I agree he has mostly done a good job, but let's not pretend that getting the talent signed was some sort of impossible task. The team had control over them so let's be serious, they either sign or they don't play.

 

[All Mod Cons]

The fans and the media built this team.it is something we can all be incredibly proud of.

 

[conFABulator]

You talk as if there was any chance they wouldn't be signed. Any GM would have signed them, it was only a question of cap hit and Dubas didn't do all that well there. He walked into a very nice situation with the talent we had, there's zero question about it.

I agree he has mostly done a good job, but let's not pretend that getting the talent signed was some sort of impossible task. The team had control over them so let's be serious, they either sign or they don't play.

I don't think anyone would read
my comment as we risked losing them. The comment was clearly that they all had to extended and we had a lot of dead weight on the cap when he had to do it.

All three kids that Dubas signed have developed incredibly well and continue to grow and mature as players. If we were at a $90M+ cap right now they would look like bargains. It's a fact that they were signed when the cap was projected to be going up dramatically...Covid hit and that changed in a big way.

You know that's a fact, right?

 

[Morbo]

Like I said, I think Dubas has done mostly good work but Matthews&Marner aren't just "players", come on now.

not at all! they're unprecedented dramatic overpayments!!!

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Like I said, I think Dubas has done mostly good work but Matthews&Marner aren't just "players", come on now.

Look at the last dozen or whatever Leaf GM's before Dubas (even Lou), look at the "players" they inherited and tell me Dubas didn't start from a better position than they did.

Dubas was at the helm when Marner was drafted.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

You talk as if there was any chance they wouldn't be signed. Any GM would have signed them, it was only a question of cap hit and Dubas didn't do all that well there. He walked into a very nice situation with the talent we had, there's zero question about it.

I agree he has mostly done a good job, but let's not pretend that getting the talent signed was some sort of impossible task. The team had control over them so let's be serious, they either sign or they don't play.

Had Lou done his job and signed Nylander instead of walking him to FA (same stupid move he pulled with Barzal), the other dominoes may never have fallen that way.

 

[The Podium]

Yup. So many people either lack the ability to understand that these things are relevant, or they're so desperate to have something to brag about that they just ignore it.

Best Leaf team ever, wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!

It's like the teams that won all multiple cups didn't even exist.


IMO, the most pathetic are the people who have bragging for years about how great this team is as if winning/losing in the playoffs is irrelevant.

The Leafs all time regulation win record is 44 (92-93), the Leafs are at 41. So they may still break the all time record without OT.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I don't think anyone would read
my comment as we risked losing them. The comment was clearly that they all had to extended and we had a lot of dead weight on the cap when he had to do it.

All three kids that Dubas signed have developed incredibly well and continue to grow and mature as players. If we were at a $90M+ cap right now they would look like bargains. It's a fact that they were signed when the cap was projected to be going up dramatically...Covid hit and that changed in a big way.

You know that's a fact, right?

You said we had to sign then, and "he did it" as it was some sort of achievement. I agree there was no risk of losing them which is why praising him for signing them makes no sense.

Dubas was at the helm when Marner was drafted.

Some people would say it was Hunter.

Had Lou done his job and signed Nylander instead of walking him to FA (same stupid move he pulled with Barzal), the other dominoes may never have fallen that way.

Still blaming things on Lou, really?

The Leafs all time regulation win record is 44 (92-93), the Leafs are at 41. So they may still break the all time record without OT.

Yeah those teams that won multiple cups couldn't manage 44 wins in a 50 game season, you got me there.

 

[GrizzLeaf]

Some GM's are criminally bad. At signings as well as trades.

Dubas doesn't belong in that conversation at all.

He's doing well. Good enough to ice a top 3 team! Lol

He's signed some off season dogs ad well as some trade deadline duds, since He's been here. But to be fair, you can never be 100% sure about a player.

On the flip side, he's mined some true nuggets as well.

You know you have some good talent on most positions when the fans' most recurring comments are about not affording to sign those guys on thier next contract lol

 

[The Podium]

You said we had to sign then, and "he did it" as it was some sort of achievement. I agree there was no risk of losing them which is why praising him for signing them makes no sense.

Some people would say it was Hunter.

Still blaming things on Lou, really?

Yeah those teams that won multiple cups couldn't manage 44 wins in a 50 game season, you got me there.

It’s been 70 games since 1949.

The Leafs are 41 - 20 - 15 going by the old W - L - T format.

That puts their P% at 0.638

P% (not including extra OTW/SOW)

1950-51 0.679
1934-35 0.667
1940-41 0.646
1960-61 0.643
1947-48 0.642
2021-22 0.638

So this team is 6th in Maple Leafs all time, game and extra point adjusted. And it is the best Leaf regular season in 61 years.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Some GM's are criminally bad. At signings as well as trades.

Dubas doesn't belong in that conversation at all.

He's doing well. Good enough to ice a top 3 team! Lol

He's signed some off season dogs ad well as some trade deadline duds, since He's been here. But to be fair, you can never be 100% sure about a player.

On the flip side, he's mined some true nuggets as well.

You know you have some good talent on most positions when the fans' most recurring comments are about not affording to sign those guys on thier next contract lol

Yup, all true IMO. I understand people criticizing some of the moves he's made and I especially understand people are unhappy with our lack of playoff success as I'm one of them. But the people saying he's the worst GM of all time and so on just make me roll my eyes.

If we lose in the 1st round again, I'd bet heavily that Dubas keeps his job. I'd also say that it's probably the right decision and to all those wanting him fired, all I can say is be careful what you wish for.