Post-Game Talk: Kucherov’s “no move” move, meet Skinner’s “no save” save

[K1984]

I wish there was a way to normalize out our fist 3 games of the season from any statistical summary.

Those first 3 games in particular were especially rancid. I am assuming that nearly every single aggregated statistic would improve if those were taken out. Normally I don't like the "if we add this and remove that it looks even better!" type of analysis, but we were still playing pre-season hockey for those first 3. Hockey that even faintly resembled a regular season level of effort started in Game 4.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I said before over analyzing the Oilers early is a waste of time. Just a bizarre team. Once they get rolling after January, they are a very hard time to beat when they are playing their A game.

I just hope they play the way they are capable of in Games 1/2 of the playoffs.

They say that top offensive games involving superstar players take longer to unpack. Not just us, look at Colorado. It takes longer to get the supreme skill clubs to start ticking. Engine doesn't run smooth to start. Also to get that same team to buy in on all aspects of game. Takes awhile. Conversely lunchbucket clubs like Calgary, even LA, they can find early success and then hit doldrums. After awhile the hard work all day clubs just start getting outgunned once the big battleships show up. At no point did I think this wasn't a playoff team. Last season or this season knew they would get there. Still think the team needs a few answers but Emberson and Stecher, and Kapanen and Pods have answered some requirements. its even possible we got the one shot scorer and linemate for Drai. Kap has a cannon. He starts callibrating that through increased minutes and he could really surprise. I like his play.

 

[bellagiobob]

 

[MessierII]

They say that top offensive games involving superstar players take longer to unpack. Not just us, look at Colorado. It takes longer to get the supreme skill clubs to start ticking. Engine doesn't run smooth to start. Also to get that same team to buy in on all aspects of game. Takes awhile. Conversely lunchbucket clubs like Calgary, even LA, they can find early success and then hit doldrums. After awhile the hard work all day clubs just start getting outgunned once the big battleships show up. At no point did I think this wasn't a playoff team. Last season or this season knew they would get there. Still think the team needs a few answers but Emberson and Stecher, and Kapanen and Pods have answered some requirements. its even possible we got the one shot scorer and linemate for Drai. Kap has a cannon. He starts callibrating that through increased minutes and he could really surprise. I like his play.

We’ve been a better back half team every season McDavid has played here. It’s just who this team is. They always take a bit to get going.

 

[CupofOil]

Its kind of crept up on people but overall the team D is as good as its been since the Pronger year. They're back to doing things they were last season on the roll and everybody buying in. Levels of D, backpressure, Nurse has improved, Ekholm excellent. Booch for the most part good but Kulak and Emberson slotting right in and Stecher filling in as well. The trouble for opponents is we don't have any glaringly weak D pairing. There issn't a D pair we have where opponents are being able to lick their chops. Also as you mentioned yesterday we don't have any lines hurting us either. Maybe not all scoring but oftentimes you look and surprised the 3rd and 4th line are hemming other club in even in tough matchups. Opposing coaches are having a hard time finding our weakspots and the forwards are too. You could never tell me off last night that Point and Kucherov are dangerous. We just shut em down. Shut!

Nurse's much improved play has balanced out the pairings nicely. He's always been a good regular season player but the wheels fell off last season even in the regular season. The 1st and 3rd pairings have always been strong since Ekholm arrived, it was always that 2nd pairing that's been inconsistent. Makes me wonder if Ceci was the problem.

 

[guymez]

I mean do you have something that does? I’m all ears.

Well...I mean I have discussed this quite a bit on here over the first couple of months of the season.
I dont have an appetite to go over all of that again.
Im fine if you believe theres nothing.
Its all good.

More than anything I am just happy that the team is playing better. That was a pretty good defensive game they played against Tampa.

 

[K1984]

They say that top offensive games involving superstar players take longer to unpack. Not just us, look at Colorado. It takes longer to get the supreme skill clubs to start ticking. Engine doesn't run smooth to start. Also to get that same team to buy in on all aspects of game. Takes awhile. Conversely lunchbucket clubs like Calgary, even LA, they can find early success and then hit doldrums. After awhile the hard work all day clubs just start getting outgunned once the big battleships show up. At no point did I think this wasn't a playoff team. Last season or this season knew they would get there. Still think the team needs a few answers but Emberson and Stecher, and Kapanen and Pods have answered some requirements. its even possible we got the one shot scorer and linemate for Drai. Kap has a cannon. He starts callibrating that through increased minutes and he could really surprise. I like his play.

It's interesting to me that the same teams seem to start red hot almost every year in the West. Kings, Knights, Jets, and to a lesser extent Wild. As you mentioned, all of these teams hang their hat on defensive play and hard work on the forecheck. And as you mentioned, all these teams tend to flail down the stretch when everyone else gets their feet under them.

Winning on pure hard work only is sustainable for so long. Knights have more game/talent to lean on (when healthy) than the other teams I listed, but you can set a clock to the rest starting well then slowing way down. The Stanley Cup predictions for the Jets on November 1 made me laugh. They were producing some of the fewest scoring opportunities in the league, but scoring 5/6 goals per game. To nobody's surprise, that has normalized along with their win/loss record.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Well...I mean I have discussed this quite a bit on here over the first couple of months of the season.
I dont have an appetite to go over all of that again.
Im fine if you believe theres nothing.
It’s all good.

ok.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Nurse's much improved play has balanced out the pairings nicely. He's always been a good regular season player but the wheels fell off last season even in the regular season. The 1st and 3rd pairings have always been strong since Ekholm arrived, it was always that 2nd pairing that's been inconsistent. Makes me wonder if Ceci was the problem.

We just never know for sure with these things. All I know is that when Nurse scored that one big game winning goal him jumping around like a kid with his tongue stuck out. I knew Nursey was back. I hadn't seen him having fun in the rink for awhile. Its weird to say but Nurse is an Alpha. In his mind he wants to be the best at his position due to his nature. So that bringing in Ekholm, and the emergence of Booch, while it helped the team it might not have helped Nurse confidence. I think it was maybe hard for him to see other D on the club surpass him and have such success. It maybe took him awhile to adjust to that. Other suggestions its because he and his wife had a baby and lack of sleep. Thankful he's back and playing solid. We suddenly look set on D. But unsung elevations from Kulak and Emberson also so huge. I'm sure every opponent expected our D to have some question marks, a weak pairing, and that just hasn't happened. To be able to switch from one pair to another and not worry is huge.

 

[CupofOil]

We just never know for sure with these things. All I know is that when Nurse scored that one big game winning goal him jumping around like a kid with his tongue stuck out. I knew Nursey was back. I hadn't seen him having fun in the rink for awhile. Its weird to say but Nurse is an Alpha. In his mind he wants to be the best at his position due to his nature. So that bringing in Ekholm, and the emergence of Booch, while it helped the team it might not have helped Nurse confidence. I think it was maybe hard for him to see other D on the club surpass him and have such success. It maybe took him awhile to adjust to that. Other suggestions its because he and his wife had a baby and lack of sleep. Thankful he's back and playing solid. We suddenly look set on D. But unsung elevations from Kulak and Emberson also so huge. I'm sure every opponent expected our D to have some question marks, a weak pairing, and that just hasn't happened. To be able to switch from one pair to another and not worry is huge.

Yeah, Nurse is feeling it this year. He seems a lot happier than he's been the last few years.
I've said this a few times, I wonder if new fatherhood sapped a lot of energy from him. Nuge seems to be hitting that wall now maybe for similar reasons. Who knows though? I'm just glad he's playing like old Nurse again, that'll be huge if he can carry it into the playoffs which have been his kryptonite although, again, I wonder how much of that was Ceci related.

Kulak has always been awesome in his role, one of the more underrated Oilers that I can remember right up there with Mike Smith.
Emberson settling in nicely as well, like you said. I still see more potential in him than just 3rd pairing but he's solid in that role for now.,

 

[Drivesaitl]

It's interesting to me that the same teams seem to start red hot almost every year in the West. Kings, Knights, Jets, and to a lesser extent Wild. As you mentioned, all of these teams hang their hat on defensive play and hard work on the forecheck. And as you mentioned, all these teams tend to flail down the stretch when everyone else gets their feet under them.

Winning on pure hard work only is sustainable for so long. Knights have more game/talent to lean on (when healthy) than the other teams I listed, but you can set a clock to the rest starting well then slowing way down. The Stanley Cup predictions for the Jets on November 1 made me laugh. They were producing some of the fewest scoring opportunities in the league, but scoring 5/6 goals per game. To nobody's surprise, that has normalized along with their win/loss record.

Jets specifically benefit from being such a set roster and org. They've limited changeover in that org on the bench and in coaching and so their sets, their team play they're all familiar. Easy to unpack. The continuity in Winnipeg is both their success and their downfall. They're always going to be that middle team not good enough to get much done, but good enough to have hot starts because they hit the ice running, everybody knows each other. Yeah I wasn't worried about the Jets streak. The Kings did have me fooled last season. But these seem to be like balloons popped. Once the mojo gone it turns south.

Rangers another example. A flawed club that can either look like world beaters one month or not making the playoffs the next. Looks like the Oilers wrecked the Rangers. They wee hammered in that game and have been bad since.

 

[Juxta Position]

I have to admit I thought they objectively looked slow from preseason even, and they are the oldest team in the league. They are playing far better defensively since Nurse has returned and Coffey moved Kulak up to play about half the 2RD minutes freeing up Emberson and Stetcher to take the less onerous 3rd pair minutes and now have a nice rotation going on D.

The goalscoring is coming up with the normalizing of shooting percentage and the Skinner we have is the good Skinner, with his evil twin bad Skinner in hiding.

Oilers will have to broaden the offense out as right now there is a statistical over reliance on the 2 big guns but its nice to see their game stabilized.

I am returning to the top of the pyramid.

View attachment 943608

I get that people keeping bring up the fact they are the oldest team in the league, but that's essentially 2 players, Ryan and Perry driving the average age up significantly.

right now their average age is 30.2, you remove Ryan and Perry and bring in Savoie and Philip and their average drops to 28.4 which puts them squarely in the middle of the league.

the team is essentially a bunch of players right in the heart of their primes with a few outliers on the older end without the 2 or 3 20-year-olds to balance it out, as most teams have.

Ryan and Perry massively skew those age numbers.

 

[FlameChampion]

They say that top offensive games involving superstar players take longer to unpack. Not just us, look at Colorado. It takes longer to get the supreme skill clubs to start ticking. Engine doesn't run smooth to start. Also to get that same team to buy in on all aspects of game. Takes awhile. Conversely lunchbucket clubs like Calgary, even LA, they can find early success and then hit doldrums. After awhile the hard work all day clubs just start getting outgunned once the big battleships show up. At no point did I think this wasn't a playoff team. Last season or this season knew they would get there. Still think the team needs a few answers but Emberson and Stecher, and Kapanen and Pods have answered some requirements. its even possible we got the one shot scorer and linemate for Drai. Kap has a cannon. He starts callibrating that through increased minutes and he could really surprise. I like his play.

I agree with your post in theory. I do think the lunchpail teams get off to better starts. Takes more time for skill teams to hit their stride.

I just don’t think theres another team quite like Oilers are. At least not to the same extent. It feels like they have to fall into a hole before they get going.

Colorado is an interesting comparison. I think there are similarities. But I think they have been basically playing Colorado hockey but not getting saves. But I think their team in general gets in sync quicker than the Oilers do.

Oilers are somewhat similar. If goaltending was better to start, we would have more wins. But I think it goes a bit beyond that. PK and secondary scoring usually takes a long time to get going. This year is kind of even more weird because the PP isn’t going but historically has.

The good news is I guess is the Oilers will continue to build and will take some time to grow into something more.

I feel like a team like Colorado, they are what they are. If goaltending stabilizes, they will win more games. But not really another level for them.

 

[guymez]

The Oilers metrics most of the season was of a team that should have been elite but weren't because of near league worst goaltending (and I say this as a Skinner backer) and leagues worst PDO. The team was generally outshooting and outchancing their opponents nightly but were getting sunk by not finishing their chances and goaltending that just wasn't making enough saves. Those things have normalized, although the 2nd line needs to get going, so now the wins are starting to happen.

Granted, the defense is playing better now but they as a unit have been pretty solid most of the season.

They actually havent though and when you watch the games and take notes (and watch the replay over and over) on scoring plays against and for and compare the notes to the metrics you can see where the metrics have been somewhat misleading.

When the spirit moves me I will do that and it really does show where some of those those stats are lacking.
This is why I have made statements about the HDSC stats not being granular enough.

This is also why I didnt buy into the popular narrative that the Oilers issues to start the season was 100% goaltending.
There is no doubt that the goaltending wasnt good enough BUT that wasnt the only major issue.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Yeah, Nurse is feeling it this year. He seems a lot happier than he's been the last few years.
I've said this a few times, I wonder if new fatherhood sapped a lot of energy from him. Nuge seems to be hitting that wall now maybe for similar reasons. Who knows though? I'm just glad he's playing like old Nurse again, that'll be huge if he can carry it into the playoffs which have been his kryptonite although, again, I wonder how much of that was Ceci related.

Honestly I don't think it was Ceci related. I'm not a fan of Ceci but he is somebody that can play in a system suited to him. For some reason it just wasn't a pairing that worked or clicked. hard to say why. That said I think Ceci has two types of games. Alert and engaged or seeming to miss threats. I thought Ceci was better in playoffs. I could be wrong on that.

 

[K1984]

Jets specifically benefit from being such a set roster and org. They've limited changeover in that org on the bench and in coaching and so their sets, their team play they're all familiar. Easy to unpack. The continuity in Winnipeg is both their success and their downfall. They're always going to be that middle team not good enough to get much done, but good enough to have hot starts because they hit the ice running, everybody knows each other. Yeah I wasn't worried about the Jets streak. The Kings did have me fooled last season. But these seem to be like balloons popped. Once the mojo gone it turns south.

Rangers another example. A flawed club that can either look like world beaters one month or not making the playoffs the next. Looks like the Oilers wrecked the Rangers. They wee hammered in that game and have been bad since.

It's at the point where you almost have to dismiss any team that starts lightning hot. To my memory, literally none of them end up getting anywhere by the end of the year over the past 5 years or so. Always seems the red hot starters ride the wave of PDO and good vibes until the PDO dies down and then they don't know where to go.

Oilers were that team once in 21-22 as well. Still ended up in the Conference Finals, but not without a massive mid-season crater in the middle that knocked them back a few pegs that required a coach firing to fix.

 

[K1984]

I get that people keeping bring up the fact they are the oldest team in the league, but that's essentially 2 players, Ryan and Perry driving the average age up significantly.

right now their average age is 30.2, you remove Ryan and Perry and bring in Savoie and Philip and their average drops to 28.4 which puts them squarely in the middle of the league.

the team is essentially a bunch of players right in the heart of their primes with a few outliers on the older end without the 2 or 3 20-year-olds to balance it out, as most teams have.

Ryan and Perry massively skew those age numbers.

Can we pin this post? The two 4th line players that might not even be in the opening night lineup when the playoffs start are basically the only thing that have people going sideways about age upset.

 

[Drivesaitl]

We’ve been a better back half team every season McDavid has played here. It’s just who this team is. They always take a bit to get going.

Drai is a slow starter as well. At least in the 200ft aspect. Amazed though he's off to a 20G start. I didn't think he was hitting 50 this year.

 

[Fourier]

I wish there was a way to normalize out our fist 3 games of the season from any statistical summary.

Those first 3 games in particular were especially rancid. I am assuming that nearly every single aggregated statistic would improve if those were taken out. Normally I don't like the "if we add this and remove that it looks even better!" type of analysis, but we were still playing pre-season hockey for those first 3. Hockey that even faintly resembled a regular season level of effort started in Game 4.

You can do it on Natural Stat Trick for example by simply using a date filter.

Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

 

[Captain Controversy]

I would say, a Seizure after watching that edited clip.

 

[Fourier]

Drai is a slow starter as well. At least in the 200ft aspect. Amazed though he's off to a 20G start. I didn't think he was hitting 50 this year.

His on ice defensive stats are also excellent this year. They are of course not specifically individual numbers but his +15 is a result of not only his 5 vs 5 scoring but also the fact that his lines have given up very little. If you throw out the first 3 games since then 5 vs 5 the Oilers have scored 2.95 GF/60 and given up 1.48GA/60 with Leon on the ice.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I get that people keeping bring up the fact they are the oldest team in the league, but that's essentially 2 players, Ryan and Perry driving the average age up significantly.

right now their average age is 30.2, you remove Ryan and Perry and bring in Savoie and Philip and their average drops to 28.4 which puts them squarely in the middle of the league.

the team is essentially a bunch of players right in the heart of their primes with a few outliers on the older end without the 2 or 3 20-year-olds to balance it out, as most teams have.

Ryan and Perry massively skew those age numbers.

Some truth to this but its also not even game 30. A team has to be able to have teeth for a full 82 games and then playoffs. The Oilers have a lot of players over age 30, most of the starting lineup and remembering that Kane will be back, and will be starting.

One of the primary reasons the Oilers have looked as effective as they have is some stellar coaching that hasn't been given enough credit. The positional play of this team is outstanding. its not often they get caught now. The game last night played out as one team masterclass vs another team giving up brutal chances. 4 breakaways to McD and Drai alone. The attention to detail, the covering back for jumps, the looking out for trailers incoming, forwards back pressure. Its been outstanding. But positional play makes a team look faster because its not recovering from being out of position a lot. There were segments yesterday where Tampa own zone were getting schooled and Booch had 3 wide open shots that no good team in the West is giving him.

That we played a masterclass against Tampa is a real nice sign. We made them look second best most of the night.

I do think we will need the injections of Philps, Savoie but I'm not positive that this coaching staff will make that call. KK seems to prefer vets.

 

[Juxta Position]

Some truth to this but its also not even game 30. A team has to be able to have teeth for a full 82 games and then playoffs. The Oilers have a lot of players over age 30, most of the starting lineup and remembering that Kane will be back, and will be starting.

One of the primary reasons the Oilers have looked as effective as they have is some stellar coaching that hasn't been given enough credit. The positional play of this team is outstanding. its not often they get caught now. The game last night played out as one team masterclass vs another team giving up brutal chances. 4 breakaways to McD and Drai alone. The attention to detail, the covering back for jumps, the looking out for trailers incoming, forwards back pressure. Its been outstanding. But positional play makes a team look faster because its not recovering from being out of position a lot. There were segments yesterday where Tampa own zone were getting schooled and Booch had 3 wide open shots that no good team in the West is giving him.

That we played a masterclass against Tampa is a real nice sign. We made them look second best most of the night.

I do think we will need the injections of Philps, Savoie but I'm not positive that this coaching staff will make that call. KK seems to prefer vets.

while i don't disagree, i don't think it's neccessarily right for fans and media to keep trotting out the "the teams too old" gripe when the removal of 2 4th line players puts this team almost dead average in the league for age.

it's like anything with numbers used in a vacuum without context....irrelevant.

 

[Drivesaitl]

while i don't disagree, i don't think it's neccessarily right for fans and media to keep trotting out the "the teams too old" gripe when the removal of 2 4th line players puts this team almost dead average in the league for age.

it's like anything with numbers used in a vacuum without context....irrelevant.

Sure but like I said Kane is coming into the lineup. That makes the team older on average. Its not a certainty Philps and Savoie are coming in this year. I hope they are. In anycase last night this is what we dressed:

Last night we had 8 players over age 30 and two more that are 30 next month. Its conceivable when playoffs start we could be dressing a dozen or more players age 30 or over assuming Arvid and Kane coming in. Thats the context.

Why does that matter? Look at the team being out of gas at the end of the Dallas series and halfway through the SC final. We ran out of legs. We started getting some legs back giving young players some more minutes. To go all the way on the long hunt for SC you NEED some youth in lineup.

of course you're correct that Perry and Ryan skew average up, but still the median age and the curve distribution age, its still up there.

In anycase the team is doing very well with these players partly due to solid positional structure. Players not getting out of position and performing their roles. good times

 

[CornKicker]

Nurse's much improved play has balanced out the pairings nicely. He's always been a good regular season player but the wheels fell off last season even in the regular season. The 1st and 3rd pairings have always been strong since Ekholm arrived, it was always that 2nd pairing that's been inconsistent. Makes me wonder if Ceci was the problem.

ill say it....... nurse has been great since he took that hard hit from reaves. i think it knocked the dumb out of him