Post-Game Talk: Kucherov’s “no move” move, meet Skinner’s “no save” save

syz

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Jul 13, 2007
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Kapanen has been playing great from the start. But his defensive game he's playing right now an even better sign. The guy can cycle, play with skill, is defending very well, and he has a no duster howitzer. From range he's challenging goalies. He has a couple posts here as well as scoring. His play on the goal credited to Drai is what pressured that play. He really zips around well but meaningfully. Good player. Right now he's a better option in that slot than Arvid would be.
I give both him and Podkolzin credit on that Draisaitl goal. Podkolzin in particular was the last man back to break up Tampa's rush and yet him and Kapenen were still the first 2 guys behind Drai to get to Tampa's net somehow. Vasilevskiy having to try and chip the rebound away was because both other Oilers forwards beat the rest of his team to it.
 

Soundwave

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The issue...while it paints an interesting picture the HDSC metric isnt close to being defintive.

How about a more simple, less fancy-schmancy stat then.

The Oilers have allowed only 2.4 GA/G since the 3rd game of the season.

That would be a goals against rate good for 2nd best in the league.

Considering this season has seen a ton of shit PK and poor goaltending ... I think Knob/Coffey deserve a fair bit of credit here.

These results are impressive given everything, now whether Knob knows how to make good offensive adjustments at the NHL level, maybe he needs to learn that side of things better.
 
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McDoused

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Interesting that Nurse played 9 minutes with both Stetcher and Kulak. With stetcher it was not good with with a CF% of 15%. The opposite was true playing with Kulak with 100 CF%.

I keep saying it, Kulak might just be the answer.
 
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syz

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The issue...while it paints an interesting picture the HDSC metric isnt close to being defintive.
You're right, it typically does the Oilers a disservice because chances like Draisaitl one-timers from the goal line don't count.
 
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McAsuno

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I don't think small players move the dial in these tournaments. Point had definitely lost a step and he did nothing all night. the guy has 18G this season only because he has a fluke 37% shooting this season. Over twice what he usually has. I could see him getting nothing done against a team like the US. I think it comes down to Canada US and I don't like what we've selected for beating that side. All things equal pick some guys that can bruise and score. Id' even pick Marchment over some of these guys. Clearly anybody in Winnipeg top scoring better option as well.

I think Point will be fine. Regardless, I just view it as a gimicky tournament. I'll actually give a shit when it matters like the Olympics. How we haven't seen Crosby and McDavid on Olympic hockey ice yet is just criminal. Dumb ass Bettman.
 

Drivesaitl

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Point is only 28 years old and is coming off back to back 90+ point seasons and currently on pace for more than 100 right now. Only Pastrnak and Matthews have more goals than him in the entire league going back to the start of the 2022-2023 season.

I agree with you on Marchand. He shouldn't be there. But not having Point? That's crazy talk. He's a stone cold mortal lock.
Like I said though Point only has that many goals this season because he's shooting a crazy 37%, clearlier outlier, clearly unsustainable. To me theres been a lot of dropoff in his play. If you didn't know his number or them calling his name he had nothing going tonight. Oilers would paper this guy in a playoff series. He has no answer to heavy teams defending him well and just taking him out. One of the reasons Tamps are first round exits every year recently.

meh. Never been a fan of small players which my posting shows. But any game I see Tampa Kucherov is very noticeable, usually, and Point isn't. I never seem to see the Point good games. Seems a real up and down player. Loads up on pts against p***y teams like SJ and the Nucks then is invisible against a harder to play club.
 

TheNumber4

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I agree and the best part is that there is plenty of room for a number of wingers to find their game.
If this team can ever get a balanced offence from their forwards...and still play high quality defence ...and get solid goaltending...look out.
I look at the 5 man unit that dominates possession. Ekholm Bouch McD Nuge Hyman. We replicate that and we are laughing.

Right now we got Drai and XX Wingers. XX would have to be a surging Podz, Arvie, Kap, or Skinner hopefully. (Edit: or Kane). Nurse can replicate the Ekholm impact. So what we need is Bouch-lite.

Skilled puckmoving RHD that can make plays and score huge goals when we need it.
 
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guymez

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You're right, it typically does the Oilers a disservice because chances like Draisaitl one-timers from the goal line don't count.
There are more than a few HDSC's that have a substantially lower proabaility due to other unlisted factors. Actually watching the game matters a lot.
 

McAsuno

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I look at the 5 man unit that dominates possession. Ekholm Bouch McD Nuge Hyman. We replicate that and we are laughing.

Right now we got Drai and XX Wingers. XX we need to be on being a surging Podz, Arvie, Kap, or Skinner hopefully. Nurse can replicate the Ekholm impact. So what we need is Bouch-lite.

Skilled puckmoving RHD that can make plays and score huge goals when we need it.

Well according to the Bobfather during the 2nd intermission, "Do the Oilers need to look for a right handed top 4 defender? It could be a top 4 left handed defender at some point down the line."

At this point, I have no idea who they're truly targeting.
 

Soundwave

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Interesting that Nurse played 9 minutes with both Stetcher and Kulak. With stetcher it was not good with with a CF% of 15%. The opposite was true playing with Kulak with 100 CF%.

I keep saying it, Kulak might just be the answer.

I don't get why people still refuse to see the obvious thing sitting right in front of their faces.

The mythical "D-partner for Nurse" is already here and has been here for years.

It's Kulak. We're totally going to end up spending a bunch of assets to bring in someone who won't even play with Nurse because Kulak will outplay them at that spot, so basically a bottom pairing D.
 

guymez

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I look at the 5 man unit that dominates possession. Ekholm Bouch McD Nuge Hyman. We replicate that and we are laughing.

Right now we got Drai and XX Wingers. XX we need to be on being a surging Podz, Arvie, Kap, or Skinner hopefully. Nurse can replicate the Ekholm impact. So what we need is Bouch-lite.

Skilled puckmoving RHD that can make plays and score huge goals when we need it.
Im curious to see how an Arvidsson...Kane...Drai line would look.
Also....Skinner could well be an option on Drais line at some point.
They may not have consistent wingers on the 2nd line but I like that they have the ability to ride a number of players depending on who is hot and who isnt. Keeps players hungry.

Also...Nurse playing this well is a major boost for this team. He needs to maintain that and if he can then this team can grab another #5 dman (with some offense) instead of a much harder to get top 4 dman.
 

Soundwave

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I think Point will be fine. Regardless, I just view it as a gimicky tournament. I'll actually give a shit when it matters like the Olympics. How we haven't seen Crosby and McDavid on Olympic hockey ice yet is just criminal. Dumb ass Bettman.

If you're on pace for like 70 goals, you're going to make Team Canada, lol.
 
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TheNumber4

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Well according to the Bobfather during the 2nd intermission, "Do the Oilers need to look for a right handed top 4 defender? It could be a top 4 left handed defender at some point down the line."

At this point, I have no idea who they're truly targeting.
My read of Bob this year is that we want the RHD top 4, but the market is dictating us to settle on a LHD playing out of position. There’s just no one available that fits the mold perfectly. The best rumored available guys would be Mathesson or Provorov. Maybe it’s just a pipe dream, and I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again if EK65 ever hits the market at 50% you go all in.
 
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McAsuno

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My read of Bob this year is that we want the RHD top 4, but the market is dictating us to settle on a LHD playing out of position. There’s just no one available that fits the mold perfectly. The best rumored available guys would be Mathesson or Provorov. Maybe it’s just a pipe dream, and I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again if EK65 ever hits the market at 50% you go all in.

I was all in for EK65 or Chychrun but when they acquired Ekholm, that was it for me. I don't think we need EK65 anymore either. Somebody like Provorov would make sense. I just hope VGK doesn't meddle their way in again for a top rated player. Just waiting for their inevitable Stone LTIR due to getting a booboo.
 
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iCanada

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Defensively yeah I kinda feel like there are only two sets of people on the planet who could get that result.

And they're coincidentally about 130 KM apart in Alberta (Knoblaugh/Coffey and D. Sutter).

Can you imagine if we had like a star level goalie? We'd be the no.1 D in the league every year with metrics like that.

The other thing is - we're not just good defensively we're top 5 offensively as well. Puts us in a class of our own analytically that I've never seen before. Our fancies this year make the best analytics teams of the past decade look pedestrian.

We're also bottom 5 in the league in PDO, only ahead of like the Predators.

That kind of PDO is usually a death knell in the standings and gets coaches fired, yet we're humming along still outscoring and winning games at a decent pace. We're not scoring as much as expected and giving up more goals then expected, yet are still in a playoffs spot.

Once the worm turns and we get some puck luck that resembles the median... Look out.
 
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TheNumber4

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Im curious to see how an Arvidsson...Kane...Drai line would look.
Also....Skinner could well be an option on Drais line at some point.
They may not have consistent wingers on the 2nd line but I like that they have the ability to ride a number of players depending on who is hot and who isnt. Keeps players hungry.

Also...Nurse playing this well is a major boost for this team. He needs to maintain that and if he can then this team can grab another #5 dman instead of a much harder to get top 4 dman.
Ahh I forgot to put Kane in that list. Yes, if he’s healthy and has his head on right, he could the the guy too. Personally I’m a little down on Kane but I realize the injuries may be biasing my view. So we have good potential to fill those spots on the roster, just got to hope that these guys find their game. I liked the small bit we saw of Arvie and Drai, I think they were building towards something there. I don’t mind JSkinner driving his own offence from the 3rd line. So if Kane-Drai-Arvie can click. That’s one part of solution done and figured out .
 

TheNumber4

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I was all in for EK65 or Chychrun but when they acquired Ekholm, that was it for me. I don't think we need EK65 anymore either. Somebody like Provorov would make sense. I just hope VGK doesn't meddle their way in again for a top rated player. Just waiting for their inevitable Stone LTIR due to getting a booboo.
It’s possible EK65 is an overshoot. Maybe we don’t need elite skill, just good skill. But in our final Cup or Bust year before Drais contract kicks in, I think we have to consider the nuclear option. Winning a Cup will only get harder from this year out.
 

foshizzle

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S. Skinner played well again tonight. I don’t like the goal that beat him and I’ll explain why. Stu has an issue with anticipation. Tonight- the puck moved from behind the net (or slightly behind) out to Guentzal. Stuart was in his reverse VH- didn’t anticipate the pass out- failed to get out of his reverse VH and to the top of his crease- puck goes through him. Dubnyk on a podcast mentioned this earlier in the season as well. Last year- during the playoffs- Roli was on ched and spoke about how goalies do not know how to recover from the RVH. I think it’s coaching at this point. I have no idea why the oilers are married to Schwartz. I’d love to get Roli in here working with Stu.
 

McAsuno

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It’s possible EK65 is an overshoot. Maybe we don’t need elite skill, just good skill. But in our final Cup or Bust year before Drais contract kicks in, I think we have to consider the nuclear option. Winning a Cup will only get harder from this year out.

I'm fine with the 'go all in' approach. Been that way for awhile, and was so frustrated seeing Holland making excuses for 5 years in a row on why he couldn't go all in for this club. But I think there's just more better all in type of approaches that don't necessarily have to involve EK65.
 

guymez

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Ahh I forgot to put Kane in that list. Yes, if he’s healthy and has his head on right, he could the the guy too. Personally I’m a little down on Kane but I realize the injuries may be biasing my view. So we have good potential to fill those spots on the roster, just got to hope that these guys find their game. I liked the small bit we saw of Arvie and Drai, I think they were building towards something there. I don’t mind JSkinner driving his own offence from the 3rd line. So if Kane-Drai-Arvie can click. That’s one part of solution done and figured out .
Agreed...and what would make the next few months really interesting is if the Pens start slipping in the standings. ;)
 

Soundwave

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S. Skinner played well again tonight. I don’t like the goal that beat him and I’ll explain why. Stu has an issue with anticipation. Tonight- the puck moved from behind the net (or slightly behind) out to Guentzal. Stuart was in his reverse VH- didn’t anticipate the pass out- failed to get out of his reverse VH and to the top of his crease- puck goes through him. Dubnyk on a podcast mentioned this earlier in the season as well. Last year- during the playoffs- Roli was on ched and spoke about how goalies do not know how to recover from the RVH. I think it’s coaching at this point. I have no idea why the oilers are married to Schwartz. I’d love to get Roli in here working with Stu.

Roloson would be a great hire and he seems to like coming back to Edmonton too. Oilers should totally hire him.
 

TheNumber4

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I'm fine with the 'go all in' approach. Been that way for awhile, and was so frustrated seeing Holland making excuses for 5 years in a row on why he couldn't go all in for this club. But I think there's just more better all in type of approaches that don't necessarily have to involve EK65.
If Ek-Bouch is the template. And it is for me. I see EK65 as our best chance to get there. I know people hate his defensive game, and they aren’t wrong. But people hate his defensive game in similar ways to how people hate Bouchs defensive game. They see “lazy”. They see “weak”. But watch an EK65 game, count bad defence plays to good offence plays, and you come out way ahead. This can’t work on a tire fire like San Jose or Pittsburgh and I suspect that’s why his analytics takes a hit. It can work behind a strong Team defensive concept like Knob hockey though.

I see glimpses in Mathesson’s game, i watched him recently. Maybe he’s good enough, he’s not near to the execution machine that EK65 is. I have not watched Provorov yet though, that’s on my to do list.
 
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SupremeTeam16

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I Don't think Tampa had more than 3 good opportunities all game. Was a quiet night. I mean 18 shots and some of them dump ins. Skinner created the tampa goal on a dump in. Then 8 secs left losing the puck behind him. jebus. A goalie can't let that puck get over him with just secs left. Didn't like that play.

Oilers are playing airtight giving up practically nothing. When Tamps had some looks they were shooting wide. When Kuch had the breakaway he flubbed it. The deflection his Skinner where he was. Skinner is big, thats his big skillset. heh
Shut up.

Kucherov makes that half deke all the time, wasn’t a flub.
 

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