Kingston Frontenacs 2024-25 Season Thread, Part I

[OMG67]

Short answer; yes, the people of Kingston seem to have no real attachment to the Frontenacs.
London is an anomaly. So is Flint I think. A far as I know the owner pretty much provided a blank cheque, but the team probably does not attract 3500 on average. I doubt Barrie is a whole lot different than Kingston. Are they averaging 4000 with a top contender? I’ll guess the (senior) Burkes were business savvy and cozied up to the casino to sell tickets as comps.

Longer term franchises like SBY, SSM, PBO, …had a market and a bond and history established before 20 NHL, NFL, NBA games each per week very cheap consumed all of the sports fan time.
In the ‘70s, if you offered a guy tickets to an OHA game he would drive 30 minutes in a blizzard without seatbelts and an open bottle of liquor to see the game. Now there are two generations that would not give up NFL Sunday to take their kids to a game if it was free and transportation provided. The only chance of infecting their kids with the bug is if they see ~10 games with minor hockey teams and school days for at least a few years. My girl sees a steelheads and/or a marlies game near weekly because she had a seat at wolves games from 4-17.

The wolves started when numerous NHL players, some future HOF came out of NE ON and played for the wolves. No matter how broken things have seemed, one tid bit of positive news sells 1000 tickets in a day because the wolves are already part of the fabric of the city.

With that logic, Major Junior Hockey is doomed to die. Or, at minimum, cannot expand and would likely contract over time. It would mean new franchises are impossible to build because there is no legacy to rely on. The ones that work are anomaly’s. The rest that work are legacy franchises. At best a new(er) franchise is 3500 average on a good year.

I’m not even trying to be a dick. That is literally what you are saying.

If that is the case, doing the absolute minimum and cutting costs is the best way forward for most franchises. Adding revenue is near impossible with ticket sales unless it is a crazy competitive year where they go deep into the playoffs.

So, Springer is actually a genius. He averages between 3100 and 3300 per game and does virtually nothing and spends virtually nothing. Other franchises int he same situation should follow suit.

EDIT: To be honest, I am not saying you are wrong, either. You may very well be right. But, if you are right, I think it needs to be expanded league wide and apply it to new franchises (and existing franchises). All the same criteria you use to justify Kingston carries over across the league.

 

[leafs4life94]

With that logic, Major Junior Hockey is doomed to die. Or, at minimum, cannot expand and would likely contract over time. It would mean new franchises are impossible to build because there is no legacy to rely on. The ones that work are anomaly’s. The rest that work are legacy franchises. At best a new(er) franchise is 3500 average on a good year.

I’m not even trying to be a dick. That is literally what you are saying.

If that is the case, doing the absolute minimum and cutting costs is the best way forward for most franchises. Adding revenue is near impossible with ticket sales unless it is a crazy competitive year where they go deep into the playoffs.

So, Springer is actually a genius. He averages between 3100 and 3300 per game and does virtually nothing and spends virtually nothing. Other franchises int he same situation should follow suit.

EDIT: To be honest, I am not saying you are wrong, either. You may very well be right. But, if you are right, I think it needs to be expanded league wide and apply it to new franchises (and existing franchises). All the same criteria you use to justify Kingston carries over across the league.

I think the ultimate truth is that everyone shoulders a little bit of the blame - the general population doesn't care/have a natural interest in the Fronts, the on ice product hasn't given them a reason to care, and ownership hasn't put any effort in making the general population care.

The biggest hockey event is the RMC-Queens game and that's because a) it's a very long-standing tradition, and b) current students and alumni will go to support it.

It all comes down to how do you make people care - and that's one of those questions that I don't have the answer to.

 

[leafs4life94]

Putting aside the ownership talk - obviously there's some smoke around Gibson but they seem fixated on getting '07 bodies, of which Kingston has one of value - and as far as I'm concerned he should not be touched.

I wonder if they'd be interested in Williamson + picks. He is an '06 but he's someone that could be back as an OA so it could fit their window.

Looking at the Jorian Donovan trade last year as the closest comparable, it was 2 2's, 4 3's and 2 4's - Kingston easily has that expendable so if they insist on bodies back, they could flip those picks to another team and get an equivalent body back - from what I've read i think Kitchener has a surplus of D they could target.

Considering Frasca got 2 2's, 2 3's and a 4, and Hopkins is a substantially better player for and extra half year, Hopkins value is at least close to the Donovan trade value, if not higher.

 

[frontsfan67]

Putting aside the ownership talk - obviously there's some smoke around Gibson but they seem fixated on getting '07 bodies, of which Kingston has one of value - and as far as I'm concerned he should not be touched.

I wonder if they'd be interested in Williamson + picks. He is an '06 but he's someone that could be back as an OA so it could fit their window.

Looking at the Jorian Donovan trade last year as the closest comparable, it was 2 2's, 4 3's and 2 4's - Kingston easily has that expendable so if they insist on bodies back, they could flip those picks to another team and get an equivalent body back - from what I've read i think Kitchener has a surplus of D they could target.

Considering Frasca got 2 2's, 2 3's and a 4, and Hopkins is a substantially better player for and extra half year, Hopkins value is at least close to the Donovan trade value, if not higher.

If Soo isn’t open to Velliaris/moore and weir and Kingston really wants Gibson and wants to keep Hopkins then Williamson is that guy for sure.

If the Soo is asking for a kings ransom though me personally I wouldn’t go for that for a 1 year player. And DEFINITELY NOT trading Hopkins- I don’t care if Allard would be involved with that or not I am not giving up Hopkins.

Williamson is ready for more responsibility and would get that in the Soo as an 18 year old this year. Then next year as a 19 year old will be even better, first pairing for sure maybe even gets an invite to an nhl camp. Year after as a 20 year old should be an “OHL all star level” dman. I expect big things out of the kid and maybe the soo would be open to that with a guy like weir who had some potential his rookie year but clearly needs a change in scenery. (And picks)

They’re gonna be building next year anyways around their 07 group and could use some good 06’s for OA’s for when in 2026-27 they are competing for the west. Williamson could be their guy.

 

[Houndzfan20]

If Soo isn’t open to Velliaris/moore and weir and Kingston really wants Gibson and wants to keep Hopkins then Williamson is that guy for sure.

If the Soo is asking for a kings ransom though me personally I wouldn’t go for that for a 1 year player. And DEFINITELY NOT trading Hopkins- I don’t care if Allard would be involved with that or not I am not giving up Hopkins.

Williamson is ready for more responsibility and would get that in the Soo as an 18 year old this year. Then next year as a 19 year old will be even better, first pairing for sure maybe even gets an invite to an nhl camp. Year after as a 20 year old should be an “OHL all star level” dman. I expect big things out of the kid and maybe the soo would be open to that with a guy like weir who had some potential his rookie year but clearly needs a change in scenery. (And picks)

They’re gonna be building next year anyways around their 07 group and could use some good 06’s for OA’s for when in 2026-27 they are competing for the west. Williamson could be their guy.

We don't really need a defenseman tho. We are stocked at d.

It would have to be a forward. Imo anyway

 

[frontsfan67]

We don't really need a defenseman tho. We are stocked at d.

It would have to be a forward. Imo anyway

Interesting. Not sure it gets done then. Weir doesn’t hold much value I assume and you probably wouldn’t want an 05 like McNamara in a trade

 

[dirty12]

Interesting. Not sure it gets done then. Weir doesn’t hold much value I assume and you probably wouldn’t want an 05 like McNamara in a trade

packing it in if moving a piece like McNamara imo

 

[Logosarejusttargets]

packing it in if moving a piece like McNamara imo

Why he doesn't really move the needle all that much. While he does have spurts of decent play, he often is the place where plays go to die, and his teammates are not fans of him by any means.

 

[dirty12]

Why he doesn't really move the needle all that much. While he does have spurts of decent play, he often is the place where plays go to die, and his teammates are not fans of him by any means.

I've only seen a few full Kingston games this season and maybe parts of his finest moments, Idk. But what I've seen is McNamara playing the critical minutes well with a lead or trailing.

 

[Fischhaber]

Putting aside the ownership talk - obviously there's some smoke around Gibson but they seem fixated on getting '07 bodies, of which Kingston has one of value - and as far as I'm concerned he should not be touched.

I wonder if they'd be interested in Williamson + picks. He is an '06 but he's someone that could be back as an OA so it could fit their window.

Looking at the Jorian Donovan trade last year as the closest comparable, it was 2 2's, 4 3's and 2 4's - Kingston easily has that expendable so if they insist on bodies back, they could flip those picks to another team and get an equivalent body back - from what I've read i think Kitchener has a surplus of D they could target.

Considering Frasca got 2 2's, 2 3's and a 4, and Hopkins is a substantially better player for and extra half year, Hopkins value is at least close to the Donovan trade value, if not higher.

The Hounds biggest need is at forward and one would expect that they already have an offer of Brady Smith and/or Logan Hawery + several picks in their back pocket.

After recently signing a big NCAA commitment in Chase Reid, I'm almost 100% sure they won't add another defenseman. They have 9 on the roster now.

 

[ScoutLife4]

Hopkins will not be included in any deal Fronts brass has been very clear on that and it has halted a lot of trade discussions.

I highly doubt Mcnamara goes anywhere either with the relationship between Troy and his Dad.

For them to upgrade goaltending it would have to be Vaccari that goes and he doesn't have much value imo.
No one is going to take on Lalonde at this point. -If there was a market for OA goalies Stuszka wouldn't be in the BCHL right now and Colin Mckenzie would have been traded by now.

Weir, Velliaris, Moore, Clark, Pickell, Kelly, Buttar and even Dervin are guys names i have heard come up through the season,.

 

[dirty12]

Hopkins will not be included in any deal Fronts brass has been very clear on that and it has halted a lot of trade discussions.

I highly doubt Mcnamara goes anywhere either with the relationship between Troy and his Dad.

For them to upgrade goaltending it would have to be Vaccari that goes and he doesn't have much value imo.
No one is going to take on Lalonde at this point. -If there was a market for OA goalies Stuszka wouldn't be in the BCHL right now and Colin Mckenzie would have been traded by now.

Weir, Velliaris, Moore, Clark, Pickell, Kelly, Buttar and even Dervin are guys names i have heard come up through the season,.

a couple of those listed are '08s; are two-part trades being discussed?

 

[frontsfan67]

Hopkins will not be included in any deal Fronts brass has been very clear on that and it has halted a lot of trade discussions.

I highly doubt Mcnamara goes anywhere either with the relationship between Troy and his Dad.

For them to upgrade goaltending it would have to be Vaccari that goes and he doesn't have much value imo.
No one is going to take on Lalonde at this point. -If there was a market for OA goalies Stuszka wouldn't be in the BCHL right now and Colin Mckenzie would have been traded by now.

Weir, Velliaris, Moore, Clark, Pickell, Kelly, Buttar and even Dervin are guys names i have heard come up through the season,.

Kelly and Buttar are guys who can’t be traded though

I agree about goalies for sure. If they had to burn a few picks they have included with Lalonde for half a year of parsons on Kitchener I’d be very open to that. Clear the goaltending is very iffy and I’d almost feel more comfortable with our rookie Betts over both which is a problem.

What’s the odds they try and get a starter like Gillespie from Guelph if they do a full year down and swap vaccari?

 

[leafs4life94]

Kelly and Buttar are guys who can’t be traded though

I agree about goalies for sure. If they had to burn a few picks they have included with Lalonde for half a year of parsons on Kitchener I’d be very open to that. Clear the goaltending is very iffy and I’d almost feel more comfortable with our rookie Betts over both which is a problem.

What’s the odds they try and get a starter like Gillespie from Guelph if they do a full year down and swap vaccari?

I'm starting to think that if they decide to upgrade on Lalonde with another OA goalie, Lalonde just ends up released. Considering the lack of market for Sztuska and MacKenzie, if the team we get the goalie from has a couple younger goalies they want to get experience it's not worth taking back Lalonde.

If they upgrade Vaccari with another 05 goalie, I think you have to move on from Lalonde because you can't have an OA as a back up. That'd open up possibilities to use that OA spot on a D or RW.

 

[frontsfan67]

I'm starting to think that if they decide to upgrade on Lalonde with another OA goalie, Lalonde just ends up released. Considering the lack of market for Sztuska and MacKenzie, if the team we get the goalie from has a couple younger goalies they want to get experience it's not worth taking back Lalonde.

If they upgrade Vaccari with another 05 goalie, I think you have to move on from Lalonde because you can't have an OA as a back up. That'd open up possibilities to use that OA spot on a D or RW.

I agree he could end up released. Liam Sztuska was better than him for sure and he wound up in the QMJHL and now he is released from there and is playing bchl.

From kitcheners point of view you get some extra picks in no go year and someone who can help ease schaubel in more and more as the season goes on before being their eventual starter next year at just 17. Fronts get an upgrade in net while using some excess picks, parsons goes onto a contender and Lalonde still gets a place in the league. Everybody wins. Kitchener may be good enough to win a playoff round anyways. They’re not competing at all though with London or Erie for starters and Windsor probably won’t be tearing down the fort the way Kitchener is with ando, possibly misaljevic and Trent swick. I see Kitchener at seasons end being the 4 seed


Edit: don’t think they make this move though. I assume they keep lalonde

 

[leafs4life94]

I agree he ends up released. Liam Sztuska was better than him for sure and he wound up in the QMJHL and now he is released from there and is playing bchl.

From kitcheners point of view you get some extra picks in no go year and someone who can help ease schaubel in more and more as the season goes on before being their eventual starter next year at just 17. Fronts get an upgrade in net while using some excess picks, parsons goes onto a contender and Lalonde still gets a place in the league. Everybody wins.

I just hope Cooper has the stones to do it with the connections and being a local kid. I also can't help but wonder if Columbus has any say in the situation - if Kitchener doesn't want Lalonde, I can't imagine they'd be too happy with one of their signees being dumped and unlikely to find a major junior landing spot.

Even though it didn't work out, it only cost a 3rd and a 7th to give it a shot.

 

[zaluty]

Even though it didn't work out, it only cost a 3rd and a 7th to give it a shot.

What are your parameters for not working out? 6th overall in the league for points, tied for 5th overall for goals against in the league Are there better goalies out there? Yes there is but saying it hasn't worked out is a bit of a stretch in my opinion so far. Now maybe at the end of the year the story may be different

 

[leafs4life94]

What are your parameters for not working out? 6th overall in the league for points, tied for 5th overall for goals against in the league Are there better goalies out there? Yes there is but saying it hasn't worked out is a bit of a stretch in my opinion so far. Now maybe at the end of the year the story may be different

Of course they're doing well but I'd almost argue they're doing well in spite of Lalonde - he's 4th last in SV% of all qualified goalies at 0.886, with all the goalies below him being either out of or right on the cusp of being out of a playoff spot. I find it hard to believe that that is the kind of production they were hoping for when they traded for him - especially using a valuable OA spot in an all in year.

Looking at his careers numbers I'm a little surprised this is actually his best SV% of his career so maybe I just had my expectations too high but I was expecting at least a .900 SV%.

It's pretty clear Oshawa has his number - 4 of his worst games were against Oshawa, and at this point I think that's in his head. When he lost his cool in the most recent game, took an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty to make it a 5-on-3, then immediately gave up a 5-3 PP goal - which made it 5-2 less than half way through the second on only 17 shots - which forced Mann's hand in bringing Betts in cold, against a very potent powerplay. That kind of stuff can't happen - especially with an OA that's supposed to be a leader.

Of course their one win against Lalonde he did play really well only giving up 1 on 31 so credit where credit is due, but to be 1-4 (Unfortunately the game he threw the tantrum Betts got credited with the loss because Kingston scored a couple goals at the end - but that's on Lalonde) against a team you know you're competing with in the division isn't good.

Kingston has the 2nd fewest shots allowed, and on a per game basis they're 3rd fewest (ahead of Flint and Ottawa, interestingly two of the teams who have goalies lower than Lalonde by SV%) - so I'd argue their goals against is more because of their defensive structure as opposed to the goaltending.

Manually added by individual goalie saves - apologies if there's any errors, I couldn't find anywhere that showed team shots against

Team	Shots	Games	Per Game
NIAG	1131​	27​	41.9​
OS	1036​	27​	38.4​
PBO	1148​	30​	38.3​
SAR	1118​	32​	34.9​
SOO	973​	28​	34.8​
BFD	957​	28​	34.2​
BRA	974​	29​	33.6​
SBY	920​	29​	31.7​
GUE	886​	28​	31.6​
ERIE	885​	28​	31.6​
NB	892​	29​	30.8​
OSH	947​	31​	30.5​
BAR	846​	28​	30.2​
LDN	835​	28​	29.8​
SAG	851​	29​	29.3​
KIT	844​	29​	29.1​
WSR	853​	30​	28.4​
KGN	810​	29​	27.9​
OTT	834​	30​	27.8​
FLNT	790​	29​	27.2​

Craziest part of this little exercise is seeing that Flores himself has more saves (889) than 10 entire teams - imagine if Kingston had Flores over Lalonde.

 

[frontsfan67]

Of course they're doing well but I'd almost argue they're doing well in spite of Lalonde - he's 4th last in SV% of all qualified goalies at 0.886, with all the goalies below him being either out of or right on the cusp of being out of a playoff spot. I find it hard to believe that that is the kind of production they were hoping for when they traded for him - especially using a valuable OA spot in an all in year.

Looking at his careers numbers I'm a little surprised this is actually his best SV% of his career so maybe I just had my expectations too high but I was expecting at least a .900 SV%.

It's pretty clear Oshawa has his number - 4 of his worst games were against Oshawa, and at this point I think that's in his head. When he lost his cool in the most recent game, took an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty to make it a 5-on-3, then immediately gave up a 5-3 PP goal - which made it 5-2 less than half way through the second on only 17 shots - which forced Mann's hand in bringing Betts in cold, against a very potent powerplay. That kind of stuff can't happen - especially with an OA that's supposed to be a leader.

Of course their one win against Lalonde he did play really well only giving up 1 on 31 so credit where credit is due, but to be 1-4 (Unfortunately the game he threw the tantrum Betts got credited with the loss because Kingston scored a couple goals at the end - but that's on Lalonde) against a team you know you're competing with in the division isn't good.

Kingston has the 2nd fewest shots allowed, and on a per game basis they're 3rd fewest (ahead of Flint and Ottawa, interestingly two of the teams who have goalies lower than Lalonde by SV%) - so I'd argue their goals against is more because of their defensive structure as opposed to the goaltending.


Craziest part of this little exercise is seeing that Flores himself has more saves (889) than 10 entire teams - imagine if Kingston had Flores over Lalonde.

Thank you for doing this.
Real cool to look at the averages. Wow Niagara’s defence sucks

 

[Fastpace]

There are 20 man on the team, how come only Lalonde gets the blame, where were all the other players on the ice?

 

[leafs4life94]

There are 20 man on the team, how come only Lalonde gets the blame, where were all the other players on the ice?

It's not about blaming Lalonde, I'm more just pointing out that if we're going to use a limited resource in an overage slot - I'd expect better results than a 0.886 SV%. Looking around the league, Saginaw is the only other team in the top half of the league with what I would call an underperforming OA goalie (Oke with a 0.889 SV%). Parsons and Schenkel are the top two in SV%, Flores is top 8 and Oster is just outside the Top 10 (but also has a much better track record).

We can absolutely go around point blame at other players on a game by game basis, especially defensively (ex. Battaglia only at +2 despite having 27 ES points and in general a very weak defensive player) - but goalies are the last line of defense and other than the Oshawa win, it's tough to say that Lalonde has stolen any games for Kingston - which you need to have happen occasionally with a team with deep run aspirations.

 

[Fastpace]

It's not about blaming Lalonde, I'm more just pointing out that if we're going to use a limited resource in an overage slot - I'd expect better results than a 0.886 SV%. Looking around the league, Saginaw is the only other team in the top half of the league with what I would call an underperforming OA goalie (Oke with a 0.889 SV%). Parsons and Schenkel are the top two in SV%, Flores is top 8 and Oster is just outside the Top 10 (but also has a much better track record).

We can absolutely go around point blame at other players on a game by game basis, especially defensively (ex. Battaglia only at +2 despite having 27 ES points and in general a very weak defensive player) - but goalies are the last line of defense and other than the Oshawa win, it's tough to say that Lalonde has stolen any games for Kingston - which you need to have happen occasionally with a team with deep run aspirations.

Again, they have twenty men on the team, why didn't they not play better at preventing dangerous shots on net and scored more to help win the games, goalies are as good as their team in front of them. Lalonde played well for a better Saginaw team, and the year before, not so well for a weaker Erie team

 

[leafs4life94]

Again, they have twenty men on the team, why didn't they not play better at preventing dangerous shots on net and scored more to help win the games, goalies are as good as their team in front of them.

So goalies are just completely exempt from any criticism because any goals allowed are all the defense's fault?

As I posted earlier Kingston allows the 3rd fewest shots against, and Kingston has scored the 3rd most goals. They are tied with Kitchener for second best goal differential at +31.

I'm not saying the whole season is a loss and they're totally doomed - it started as a comment about Lalonde not playing very well which I got fairly questioned on given how well Kingston is doing, so I took a deeper dive into the numbers.

 

[OMG67]

The problem is that there is a complete lack of good goalies that are not OAs. The vacuum for goaltending in the OHL right now is crazy.

Look at Leenders and Ivankovic. Both were considered too 5 coming into the season. Both play on pretty good squads. Ivankovic is with Team Canada right now sitting at 16th on GAA with a save% under .900. Leenders is 22nd in GAA with an .891!

There is no wonder there has been extensive talk about allowing an OA goalie to not count against the three OA slots.

Parsons and Flores are the only OA goalies available that may move the needle. I thought MacK would be as well but he has been poor this year. Maybe Schenkel will be available too?

I don’t have the answer but what I do know is Kingston has other gaps that need to be resolved, otherwise the goaltending is inconsequential. Goaltending is just another gap. Ya gotta fill all the gaps to have a real chance. Fixing goaltending at the cost of not fixing the defence isn’t an option IMO.

 

[GoFronts]

Unrelated to all this goalie talk, but I heard through the grapevine that Kieren Dervin is with the team this weekend and will make his debut tonight.