Value of: Karlsson at $5 million to Ottawa

[Empoleon8771]

Would there be interest here? Ottawa and Pittsburgh are both struggling and seemingly need to shake things up. The Penguins retaining Karlsson down to $5 million is a big cap hit penalty, but not as big of a money penalty ($11.5 million spread out over 3 years). I figure this is also appealing for Ottawa to be spending only $11.5 million on Karlsson in real money over the next 3 years.

Would something around Zub+ for Karlsson at $5 million be workable? Zub has 3 years at $4.6 million left, so the swap would be almost an equal contract swap.

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[Dipsy Doodle]

I don't think the Pens should be retaining money on any player unless its an impending UFA at the deadline to facilitate getting more futures.

 

[Manhattan]

They still retain 5m so it’s not an equal $ swap and not a player swap for the same money.

It’s like you Pay 9,6 for Zub.
Or 4,6 for Zub, 5 million in bonus/charity to Karlsson and get 5m $ less in cap space all together.

I think Ottawa would like to keep Zub and add Karlsson for Jensen+ pick/picks.

Karlsson would definitely sell tickets/merch and be a possible staff member for the future and ambassador for the Sens.

Personally I’d do a Karlsson for Jensen trade over a Zub deal.

 

[Empoleon8771]

They still retain 5m so it’s not an equal $ swap and not a player swap for the same money.

It’s like you Pay 9,6 for Zub.
Or 4,6 for Zub, 5 million in bonus/charity to Karlsson and get 5m $ less in cap space all together.

I think Ottawa would like to keep Zub and add Karlsson for Jensen+ pick/picks.

Karlsson would definitely sell tickets/merch and be a possible staff member for the future and ambassador for the Sens.

Personally I’d do a Karlsson for Jensen trade over a Zub deal.

I had initially thought Jensen made more sense but it looks like he's having a great year and playing in a larger role than Zub. I'd be fine with Jensen as well, but I'd want more futures on top of Jensen than I would on top of Zub most likely.

Retaining money on Karlsson is basically a prerequisite in needing to trade him. No one is touching him at his current AAV.

I don't think the Pens should be retaining money on any player unless its an impending UFA at the deadline to facilitate getting more futures.

I think it would make far more sense to retain significant money on Karlsson to get a good return for him than retain on some shitty rentals so you can get a 3rd instead of a 5th.

 

[Xspyrit]

Would there be interest here? Ottawa and Pittsburgh are both struggling and seemingly need to shake things up. The Penguins retaining Karlsson down to $5 million is a big cap hit penalty, but not as big of a money penalty ($11.5 million spread out over 3 years). I figure this is also appealing for Ottawa to be spending only $11.5 million on Karlsson in real money over the next 3 years.

Would something around Zub+ for Karlsson at $5 million be workable? Zub has 3 years at $4.6 million left, so the swap would be almost an equal contract swap.

If you retain 5 M$ on Karlsson yes I would do it for Zub

Jensen is a stop gap for Ottawa but he allows Chabot to be back to form so don't want to mess with that.

Zub has been excellent but not this season, he has had a lot of injuries so I don't know, I'd be ok to sacrifice him.

Sanderson - Karlsson
Chabot - Jensen

 

[elmaco]

I don't think this accomplishes anything for OTT, basement teams do not need high paying vets who are better used as rentals.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't think this accomplishes anything for OTT, basement teams do not need high paying vets who are better used as rentals.

Ottawa isn't trying to be a basement team. That's the point of trading for Karlsson, to attempt to not be a basement team.

I also don't see how Karlsson at $5 million is a "high paying vet" either.

 

[sensfan4lifee]

Nty

 

[banks]

I'd love to see EK back to Ottawa. But I don't think Dubas has the guts to trade a major piece away. Even with him supposedly saying everyone is available except Crosby, I just don't think it happens.

 

[NyQuil]

I think the Karlsson era in Ottawa should be and is long done.

 

[Xspyrit]

I don't think this accomplishes anything for OTT, basement teams do not need high paying vets who are better used as rentals.

Ottawa isn't trying to be a basement team. That's the point of trading for Karlsson, to attempt to not be a basement team.

I also don't see how Karlsson at $5 million is a "high paying vet" either.

Exactly, Ottawa is not tanking. Right now, Ottawa has the 5th worst PDO (2nd worst at 5v5), Ullmark is not making the saves and the shooters have been snake bitten or not converting enough (bottom-6 sucks offensively too). That is the problem because they do good things on the ice, like carrying the play most games. Look at this at Even Strength :

CF/60 : 6th
CA/60 : 5th
CF% : 3rd
CF/60 : 3rd
CA/60 : 6th
CF% : 3rd
xGF/60 : 20th
xGA/60 : 4th
xGF% : 10th

Ullmark needs to be much better and the guys need to stop gripping their sticks too hard but that being said, I was never really confident in how they built the bottom-6 (Perron, Amadio, Cousins, Gregor additions)

I think the Karlsson era in Ottawa should be and is long done.

At the same time, different owner and management. Alfie came back too.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

I think it would make far more sense to retain significant money on Karlsson to get a good return for him than retain on some shitty rentals so you can get a 3rd instead of a 5th.

A good return? We'd effectively be paying 9.6 mil for Artem Zub.

I'd stick with Karlsson.

 

[Empoleon8771]

A good return? We'd effectively be paying 9.6 mil for Artem Zub.

I'd stick with Karlsson.

The point would be to get futures on top of Zub, not just a straight up swap.

The ideal scenario would be something like Zub and Greig for Karlsson at $5 million. The Karlsson trade basically just ends up being Granlund, Petry, Rutta and the 15th overall pick for Zub and Greig, which isn't great but isn't terrible either.

 

[One Winged Angel]

The next time Karlsson wears an Ottawa jersey will be when they retire his number.

Can’t see this working.

 

[Xspyrit]

The point would be to get futures on top of Zub, not just a straight up swap.

The ideal scenario would be something like Zub and Greig for Karlsson at $5 million. The Karlsson trade basically just ends up being Granlund, Petry, Rutta and the 15th overall pick for Zub and Greig, which isn't great but isn't terrible either.

I don't think Greig is available

He just turned 22 y/o and from his 20-21 y/o seasons, produced at a 30 pts clip while bringing top notch defense and some grit/pest attributes

He is cost controlled, won't cost a fortune to extend and is a keeper IMO. I think the Sens would rather have the Pens retain less but take another contract back for example

Zub + Amadio for Karlsson (Pit retain 3 M$)

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't think Greig is available

He just turned 22 y/o and from his 20-21 y/o seasons, produced at a 30 pts clip while bringing top notch defense and some grit/pest attributes

He is cost controlled, won't cost a fortune to extend and is a keeper IMO. I think the Sens would rather have the Pens retain less but take another contract back for example

Zub + Amadio for Karlsson (Pit retain 3 M$)

Issue is that the point of trading Karlsson is to add futures, not to just get out of his deal for other pieces. Amadio wouldn't solve that issue.

I think there's zero chance he's available, but I think Pinto might be a middle ground ground there between "cost controlled rookie on ELC" and "28 year old bottom-6 forward on a sizable contract". But I'm super skeptical anything around Zub and Pinto for Karlsson with retention would be workable for Ottawa.

 

[Xspyrit]

Issue is that the point of trading Karlsson is to add futures, not to just get out of his deal for other pieces. Amadio wouldn't solve that issue.

I think there's zero chance he's available, but I think Pinto might be a middle ground ground there between "cost controlled rookie on ELC" and "28 year old bottom-6 forward on a sizable contract". But I'm super skeptical anything around Zub and Pinto for Karlsson with retention would be workable for Ottawa.

Yeah I understand but that's exactly why Ottawa and Pittsburgh can't be trading partners right now. Ottawa has literally no futures to spare outside of B/C level prospects. Dorion has literally dilapidated Ottawa's wealth and they need to recover from that. So unless you'd be able to then flip Zub and/or Amadio for assets from another team, there's no deal to be made here.

Same for Pinto as it is with Greig, not available and particularly not for Karlsson

Dorion already did Gustavsson for Talbot and look what it did. This is not deals Ottawa need to make.

 

[SEALBound]

Issue is that the point of trading Karlsson is to add futures, not to just get out of his deal for other pieces. Amadio wouldn't solve that issue.

I think there's zero chance he's available, but I think Pinto might be a middle ground ground there between "cost controlled rookie on ELC" and "28 year old bottom-6 forward on a sizable contract". But I'm super skeptical anything around Zub and Pinto for Karlsson with retention would be workable for Ottawa.

If Dubas could make that work, it would be a major win for us IMHO. Zub is a guy you can make available the second you get him. That said, he probably makes a bit more sense as our 2RD than Karlsson. Pinto obviously slots in at 3C long term and provides that fill-2C that we really need right now.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I’d do a Zub swap, in OP, not interested in any plus, didn’t really want Karl back, but guess I’d do a swap.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If Dubas could make that work, it would be a major win for us IMHO. Zub is a guy you can make available the second you get him. That said, he probably makes a bit more sense as our 2RD than Karlsson. Pinto obviously slots in at 3C long term and provides that fill-2C that we really need right now.

Yeah which is why I saw almost no chance they'd make that move, sending Pinto out for a 33 year old defenseman is a move I don't think any team should be making. Granted Ottawa does have a lot of talented young forward depth, but Karlsson is simply too old for me to think they'd do that.

The deal here would have to be Zub and picks/prospects for Karlsson, but it seems like Ottawa is pretty thin on picks and prospects right now. I'd personally take Zub, a B prospect and a 2025 2nd for Karlsson but the Senators aren't in a spot where they can comfortably do that. Especially with them having to forfeit a 1st rounder either this year or next year.

 

[Xspyrit]

Zub is injured and his season is pretty much down the drain... so maybe there would be something to do if Pitt wanted to get rid of Karlsson's contract.

Problem like discussed with OP of this thread, Ottawa doesn't have futures to spare.

 

[SEALBound]

Yeah which is why I saw almost no chance they'd make that move, sending Pinto out for a 33 year old defenseman is a move I don't think any team should be making. Granted Ottawa does have a lot of talented young forward depth, but Karlsson is simply too old for me to think they'd do that.

The deal here would have to be Zub and picks/prospects for Karlsson, but it seems like Ottawa is pretty thin on picks and prospects right now. I'd personally take Zub, a B prospect and a 2025 2nd for Karlsson but the Senators aren't in a spot where they can comfortably do that. Especially with them having to forfeit a 1st rounder either this year or next year.

At least not without a younger piece coming back which the Penguins are in very short supply of unless they think more highly of DOC or even Puustinen or Poulin. Adding Pinto would take the sting out of the loss of Yager from the standpoint of losing a center for a wing.

I'd take the flyer on Bourgault and then honestly, a 3rd would be okay with me especially if it means gaining some cap space that we could later weaponize. I have trouble believing Dubas would retain $5mil ($15mil in real money) for the next 2.5 years but I could see $2.5-3mil if it gets the deal over the line. But say it's even just up to $2mil, that's cap space that can be used later. You do a 3rd party retention brokerage or take an expiring deal for a 3rd later at the TDL and I think the overall value of the trade could come out well enough to make it worth it.

Zub is injured and his season is pretty much down the drain... so maybe there would be something to do if Pitt wanted to get rid of Karlsson's contract.

Problem like discussed with OP of this thread, Ottawa doesn't have futures to spare.

Fair which is why a cap-in, cap-out deal with the Pens is tough to dial in. Honestly though, I'd take the 3rd you have in 26 and be open to less retention.

 

[RickyLafleur]

I'd take him back at 5m since he would likely be our 2nd best defencemen.

 

[Goalie_Bob]

I think this is the type of deal that gets made in the offseason. The Pens only have one retention slot left and they would be better off using it to get the best return possible on one of the UFAs, like Pettersson.

In the offseason the Pens will have all three retention slots available.

And I think Ottawa will be more affable of such a deal in the offseason when they have more hope for the 2025-2026 season.

 

[stempniaksen]

I'd absolutely add futures to Zub for Karlsson at $5M but not Yakemchuk or Grieg and I'm not sure there's tons of incentives for the Penguins to make the deal which how depleted the rest of the prospect pool is. Would a few B-/C+ prospects get the deal done?

To Ottawa: EK @ $5M + Matt Nieto/Boko Imama/Sebastien Aho (warm body)
To Pittsburgh: Zub + Sogaard/Merilainen + Boucher/Crookshank + Hamara/Guenette

The Karlsson to Ottawa ship has mostly sailed, but under the scenario where they are swapping him for Zub at roughly the same cap hit it makes all the sense in the world. Zub from a few years ago may have been more valuable to this current version of the Senators but he's oft injured and his pairing with Sanderson has been playing arguably the worst hockey of their respective careers right now. This trade provides the doubled edged sword of shaking up the roster and also throwing the fanbase a bone by brining back a fan favourite when vibes are arguably at an all-time low.