JT Miller vs Ryan Kesler

[CanucksSayEh]

#1 in league scoring not 4th... again peak to peak.

Kes 40 goals... in suppressed scoring... 32 in his best.

Offensive starts vs defensive. the list goes on and on.

Like it shouldn't be much of an argument if we are talking peak performances.

Millers season is comparable to Hanks 2011 year (4th) obv not his ross season. You're also flip flopping between Kes 41 goals, and his 15th overall scoring (2 different seasons) so... If we're comparing Kes best to JT, Keslers best 2 years are close to the number of games from JT's 3 seasons here (not even gonna exclude the disaster for everyone Canada div year). The production gap is massive, too big for any other factors to close.

That list can be made just as long in JT's favor. He hasn't had nearly the level of support, and has been the #1 target.

 

[Cornwallace]

You said "Kesler had some amazing stretches but was never capable of putting up a season like Miller just had offensively." I refuted that point by suggesting in 2011 Kesler finished 15th in league scoring this season Miller finished 9th in league scoring. Kesler was 4th in the NHL in goals, Miller was 38th in the league in goals. You can't simply look at HockeyDB raw numbers and make conclusions, you need to look at context. League scoring is drastically different now than it was in 2011.

It's ridiculous to suggest that a guy that a guy that finished 15th in the entire NHL in points wasn't clearly a number 1 centre at his pinnacle. Using career PPG when the question clearly states "who's better at their peak" makes zero sense.

Kesler doesn't have the offensive longevity but clearly was among the elite players in the league at both ends of the rink during his peak. Again this argument stemmed from the fact that I suggested that Kesler would produce more at even strength with a linemate like Pettersson than a revolving door of tweener wingers.

Again I don't think Kesler was better than Miller offensively but I think it was closer than you think. Raw points isn't the way to assess things. As much as Pettersson and Boeser struggled at evens this year, they're much better than Raymond/Samuelsson.

Per Jfreshs model which adjusts even strength production over the 3 seasons Miller has played in Vancouver and Kesler's best 3 year stretch here. Kesler was a slightly better even strength goal scorer per 60 and actually his per 60 primary assists numbers were slightly better.

Again, you've fundamentally misunderstood what I've said...

I said Kesler was more of a 2c/1B. 1B as in a lower-end first line center playing behind a better center. He was never a true #1 center as he was always behind Henrik/Getzlaf. As I said before, he was pretty much the ideal center you'd want manning your 2nd line. You'll never actually know how Kesler would have faired as a true #1 C because he was never the #1 C on any of his teams. It's just conjecture on your part assuming that he would score more with better linemates. The NHL is filled with players that didn't produce more with better linemates so I think it's a little naive to just say he would absolutely do better in a completely different role.

One player was apart of 40% of his teams goals, while the other got to play behind a center that was apart of 40% of his teams goals. At even strength Miller is going up against teams top shutdown lines while Kesler got the benefit of teams sending their top shutdown lines at the Sedins. You're trying to compare players in two different roles and restrict what stats are used to try and prove your argument. Yes, Kesler ate up tough minutes trying to shutdown other teams top lines, but a lot of the time those top lines aren't exactly the strongest defensively and lead to a lot of counter-attack offense

I'd also say it's somewhat disingenuous to say "league scoring is drastically different" and then completely ignore that both of Kesler's top offensive years were on teams that scored more goals than Millers.... So he was on higher scoring teams but contributed less total offense.

You can project and predict that Kesler would do better with better linemates all you want but it doesn't change the fact that over Kesler's entire career he was never actually deployed a true #1 C. Which is the major flaw in what your arguing.

I don't think they're drastically far apart as overall players, but they're each considerably better suited for the roles that they do actually play/played.

 

[racerjoe]

Millers season is comparable to Hanks 2011 year (4th) obv not his ross season. You're also flip flopping between Kes 41 goals, and his 15th overall scoring (2 different seasons) so... If we're comparing Kes best to JT, Keslers best 2 years are close to the number of games from JT's 3 seasons here (not even gonna exclude the disaster for everyone Canada div year). The production gap is massive, too big for any other factors to close.

That list can be made just as long in JT's favor. He hasn't had nearly the level of support, and has been the #1 target.

Again when you just add points, and compare it doesn't account for the difference in league scoring.

Level of support? Again Kesler was playing with Raymond and a rotating winger vs JT playing with the best players on the team. Again Kesler often starting in the defensive zone vs JT playing offensive.

Miller is a fabulous player, he was our best forward last year, and has been easily one of our best players since we got him, but he just simply isn't as good. Just like if I were to compare Kesler to Crosby, it shouldn't be a bad to say Kes is not as good.

 

[4Twenty]

5 on 5 Miller had 31 primary points.

This as the go-to forward getting offensive minutes.


Kesler had 30 primary points 5 on 5 in a much tougher role with Samuelson and Raymond and the 3rd most utilized forward teammate was Jeff Tambellini.


On ice Kesler 50GF vs 35GA at 5 on 5.

Miller 58 GF vs 44 GA at 5 on 5.


If both were at their peak in 2010 one would be a winger, I’ll let you figure out who.

 

[Hit the post]

I will say this in Miller's defense, who know how well he would've even developed further as a NHLer had he a REAL NHL head coach instead of Travis Green. Miller sort of 'butted heads' early on his career with Alain Vigneault but Miller said he turned out for the better for it (the way Vigneault treated him):

Canucks: Alain Vigneault gets an assist on J.T. Miller's career ascension

In the pre-COVID era of unmasked and unbridled observations, it was Alain Vigneault’s one-line summation of J.T. Miller that proved a springboard to reaching new career heights.

theprovince.com

 

[rypper]

PIcture if they both played on a line together during their individual peaks.

 

[Hit the post]

PIcture if they both played on a line together during their individual peaks.

I'd rather have the Fraser-Gradin-Smyl (at their peaks) in 2011 than Miller & Kesler.

 

[CanucksSayEh]

Again when you just add points, and compare it doesn't account for the difference in league scoring.

Level of support? Again Kesler was playing with Raymond and a rotating winger vs JT playing with the best players on the team. Again Kesler often starting in the defensive zone vs JT playing offensive.

Miller is a fabulous player, he was our best forward last year, and has been easily one of our best players since we got him, but he just simply isn't as good. Just like if I were to compare Kesler to Crosby, it shouldn't be a bad to say Kes is not as good.

We aren't just adding points, we're adding a LOT of points. As much as the difference between Miller and McDavid. The league being up on scoring this past season doesn't mean much when the team scored less than the peak Kes years. If it does, someone should tell the rest of the gang that's scoring is easier now and they're free to join in on the fun.

The linemate argument doesn't real hold weight to me. We are talking about the #1 scorer, vs the #3. He is the top guy, and just outscored his 2 most common wingers COMBINED. Boeser was better in the Canada year, but other than that this has been JT's offense.

Miller isn't some one dimensional player, he brings a lot to the table and can be played in all situations. There's higher scoring players than him that I'd rank lower, as I value the C position and all around player, but there's a limit to that.

For an all time Canuck team I probably have them play together, but if I have to choose a top center for this team right now, its JT without hesitation

 

[racerjoe]

5 on 5 Miller had 31 primary points.

This as the go-to forward getting offensive minutes.


Kesler had 30 primary points 5 on 5 in a much tougher role with Samuelson and Raymond and the 3rd most utilized forward teammate was Jeff Tambellini.


On ice Kesler 50GF vs 35GA at 5 on 5.

Miller 58 GF vs 44 GA at 5 on 5.


If both were at their peak in 2010 one would be a winger, I’ll let you figure out who.

Basically what the above says....

We aren't just adding points, we're adding a LOT of points. As much as the difference between Miller and McDavid. The league being up on scoring this past season doesn't mean much when the team scored less than the peak Kes years. If it does, someone should tell the rest of the gang that's scoring is easier now and they're free to join in on the fun.

The linemate argument doesn't real hold weight to me. We are talking about the #1 scorer, vs the #3. He is the top guy, and just outscored his 2 most common wingers COMBINED. Boeser was better in the Canada year, but other than that this has been JT's offense.

Miller isn't some one dimensional player, he brings a lot to the table and can be played in all situations. There's higher scoring players than him that I'd rank lower, as I value the C position and all around player, but there's a limit to that.

For an all time Canuck team I probably have them play together, but if I have to choose a top center for this team right now, its JT without hesitation

 

[bandwagonesque]

Miller does so much of his scoring in the half court, protecting the puck with his body and wheeling around the offensive zone looking for seams to pass or go to the net. It's cool and all, but Kesler could make zone entries through pressure, blow defenses away off the rush and play fantastic hockey all over the ice. He was also way meaner and more physical.

 

[rypper]

He was also way meaner

"Tell Kelly I say hi!"

 

[MatthewMurdock]

Again, you've fundamentally misunderstood what I've said...

I said Kesler was more of a 2c/1B. 1B as in a lower-end first line center playing behind a better center. He was never a true #1 center as he was always behind Henrik/Getzlaf. As I said before, he was pretty much the ideal center you'd want manning your 2nd line. You'll never actually know how Kesler would have faired as a true #1 C because he was never the #1 C on any of his teams. It's just conjecture on your part assuming that he would score more with better linemates. The NHL is filled with players that didn't produce more with better linemates so I think it's a little naive to just say he would absolutely do better in a completely different role.

One player was apart of 40% of his teams goals, while the other got to play behind a center that was apart of 40% of his teams goals. At even strength Miller is going up against teams top shutdown lines while Kesler got the benefit of teams sending their top shutdown lines at the Sedins. You're trying to compare players in two different roles and restrict what stats are used to try and prove your argument. Yes, Kesler ate up tough minutes trying to shutdown other teams top lines, but a lot of the time those top lines aren't exactly the strongest defensively and lead to a lot of counter-attack offense

I'd also say it's somewhat disingenuous to say "league scoring is drastically different" and then completely ignore that both of Kesler's top offensive years were on teams that scored more goals than Millers.... So he was on higher scoring teams but contributed less total offense.

You can project and predict that Kesler would do better with better linemates all you want but it doesn't change the fact that over Kesler's entire career he was never actually deployed a true #1 C. Which is the major flaw in what your arguing.

I don't think they're drastically far apart as overall players, but they're each considerably better suited for the roles that they do actually play/played.

It's disingenuous to claim that because Kesler played behind two of the best centres of his generation that he was never a 1C!!! Evgeni Malkin spent his entire career behind Sidney Crosby. If you finish top 15 in league scoring while being voted as the best two/way forward in the entire NHL you're clearly a 1C. Kesler put up pretty much the same results as Patrice Bergeron at his peak at both ends of the rinks, do you consider him a lower end 1c? I

It's absolutely not naive to suggest that a player would score more points with better linemates, you don understand that every metric of advanced data has shown that the most import driver is quality of teammate right? It's absolutely outrageous to suggest that moving away from tweener wingers and instead playing with much better players wouldn't help a players production just because "some players play worse with good player". Kesler played great with Demitra/Sundin and fit the Sedins like a glove.

Goal% is a weird way to analyze players, Kesler played on a better team but played in a worse situation, clearly. Miller got prime offensive minutes with elite offensive players and Kesler was tasked with tough deployment against other teams best players. If you think it's easier to score in against others team best players than it is to score against other teams best defenders, you don't understand how the NHL works.

Coaches do their best to free up their best offensive players by giving them an ample of offensive zone starts and opportunities. I'll pose this question to you, who do you think played in a more favourable situation in 2011 David Krejci or Patrice Bergeron? Krejci was the teams number 1 offensive centre where as Bergeron was the teams all situation matchup defender.

There's no "major flaw" in what I'm arguing, it's a pretty fair assessment to suggest if a player went from being tasked with defensive zone starts, lower QOT and higher QOC to better a better quality of teammate, lower quality of competition and more offensive zone starts his offensive number would absolutely increase.

 

[MatthewMurdock]

Millers season is comparable to Hanks 2011 year (4th) obv not his ross season. You're also flip flopping between Kes 41 goals, and his 15th overall scoring (2 different seasons) so... If we're comparing Kes best to JT, Keslers best 2 years are close to the number of games from JT's 3 seasons here (not even gonna exclude the disaster for everyone Canada div year). The production gap is massive, too big for any other factors to close.

That list can be made just as long in JT's favor. He hasn't had nearly the level of support, and has been the #1 target.

Comparing Henrik Sedins 2011 season to Miller is again you getting lost in raw point totals.

In 2011 Henrik finished 4th in the NHL in points, Miller finish 9th. Sedin finished 5th in the NHL in even strength points, Miller finished 21st. Sedin finished 5th in the NHL in even strength points/60, Miller finished 25th

Kesler's 41 goal season was his 15th overall scoring season. For the tenth time league scoring is up drastically so looking at raw point numbers is ridiculous.

 

[Love]

Come on now

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Totally. In addition to this, here’s some other guys who are way better than Miller:

All hail jfresh!

 

[strattonius]

I'm in the minority on this one. I think Miller is going to have a longer peak and that's more valuable to me than the short-lived peak of Kesler.

No question Kesler was a defensive beast and had an insane year in 2011 - which he continued in the playoffs until he was unfortunately injured like the rest of our team.

I think Miller has another 4 elite years in him. That being said, I still don't think we should sign him long term .

 

[CanucksSayEh]

It's not pure points, its scoring relative to peers and teammates.

Kesler finished as high as 15th, 1st place PP, with teammates finishing 4th and 1st.. his peak years he was outscored by his own teammate (ross winners) by 37 & 31 points. His best 3 consecutive years he's 29th in league scoring.

Miller finished 9th, 9th place PP, with his next closest teammate at FIFTY-FIVE! a 31 point gap, and largest in the league. He was outscored by Mcdavid by 24p (whos teammate finished 4th). 3 years as a Canuck, he is 12th in league scoring.

Guys, this ain't an insignificant gap.

Keslers Canucks averaged more goals in each season, even with the higher scoring now, and JT scores a much larger % of the teams total offence. To argue that Kes on the top team in the league was in a worse position to put up points than the clusterfunk of the Green era is..... odd. There's not much reason to think Kes would score much more with a different situation, certainly not carry a teams offense. He just wasn't that player. JT doesn't need hypotheticals or what ifs, dude just did it.

Keslers peak was so short. Miller could very well improve and have multiple more elite seasons.

 

[Love]

After 10/11 the narrative around here was “Yeah Kesler won the Selke, but Malhotra was the real shutdown centre and defensive anchor of the team.” There was a fairly widespread belief that Kesler, while good defensively, won the Selke at least in part due to reputation and not entirely because of merit.

I’m not saying Kesler wasn’t awesome, but the gap offensively is too much for me. And I also haven’t forgotten that Kesler didn’t know how to use his linemates while Miller makes all his linemates significantly better.

 

[Ace of Hades]

After 10/11 the narrative around here was “Yeah Kesler won the Selke, but Malhotra was the real shutdown centre and defensive anchor of the team.” There was a fairly widespread belief that Kesler, while good defensively, won the Selke at least in part due to reputation and not entirely because of merit.

I’m not saying Kesler wasn’t awesome, but the gap offensively is too much for me. And I also haven’t forgotten that Kesler didn’t know how to use his linemates while Miller makes all his linemates significantly better.

Kesler should've won the selke in 09-10 regardless.

There is no offensive gap here.

 

[sting101]

PIcture if they both played on a line together during their individual peaks.

Gillis tried. His name was David Booth. Similar but different

 

[rypper]

Gillis tried. His name was David Booth. Similar but different

They were good to start until Kevin Porter took out his knee. (Not Miller good but good.)

 

[sting101]

Even strength points

Miller 308 in 637 games so far .48
Kesler by 31 had 280 in 657 games .42

Kesler was better defensively. Miller is a much better playmaker and a better offensive player

2 of my favorite Canucks on ice. Gonna be unfortunate when Miller puts his foot down and the team has to move on

 

[sting101]

They were good to start until Kevin Porter took out his knee. (Not Miller good but good.)

Booth had success with pure athletic prowess. He was far from an intelligent player and a horrible playmaker i doubt they would have ever really formed great chemistry long term after watching him

12pts in 17 games was a good start and that injury did derail things but he also only missed 5 weeks not like it was a torn ACL or something.

It was a poor pro scouting decision to invest in that contract. That was a 6 million dollar deal in todays cap. The Richards hit i think did much more damage and Florida was probably pretty happy to clear him off the books after seeing he was a 1 trick pony and wasn't likely to get back close to 30 goals

 

[Bgav]

Kesler and it’s not close for me.

 

[F A N]

I voted Kesler pure because of his defensive prowess. That Nashville series kind of defined his peak.

 

[I Hart Conor Garland]

I don’t want to be too negative towards JT because I like him but I take Kesler here because I think he’s more of the win with this guy type. To me JT seems more like a bad team superstar.