Proposal: Jets/Panthers

[TheImpatientPanther]

Hub has a full NMC so there's no way he's waiving to come to Winnipeg.

Ekblad's NMC is going to kick in after the season so if there was a thought about moving him, because the bonus money is going to be problematic with no fans, etc. the time would be now to move him out.

The offer in the OP is dead because of the NMC for Hub so really IMO the question is Ekblad for ???

Would Florida think they'd need a replacement top 4 RD? They have Stralman and Gudas already and then Nutivara (a LHS that plays RD) and Weegar (a RHS that plays LD). If they think Weegar can move to the Right side or Stalman, Nuti, Gudas is good enough then maybe Pionk isn't really that enticing to them as part of an Ekblad trade?

Obviously Laine for Ekblad is the move that stares you in the face with his relationship with Barkov and the fact he's our only young top 6 forward that isn't locked up long term. We're then back to a bit of a surplus on RD and have some protection issues in the expansion draft but if we were going to make a move it seems like it would just be Ekblad. not the guy with the NMC.

And FLA would be insane to trade a prime aged #1 RD with 5 years left for a winger, as good as he may be.
Yes he may be BFF with Barkov but hopefully FLAs GM just waits out Laine until the price comes down as he gets closer to UFA, and it will eventually, just like Troubas did.

 

[Heldig]

1. Slight?

2. Glass houses, dude.

OK, so you think Huberdeau is so much better than Connor the Jets would have to add MORE than Pionk, Copp. Heinola and a 1st? Honestly?

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

OK, so you think Huberdeau is so much better than Connor the Jets would have to add MORE than Pionk, Copp. Heinola and a 1st? Honestly?

Look at what Dougie Hamilton went for two years ago. Might be the closest comparison to Ekblad.

DH was 24-25 years old at the time, had 3 years left on his deal and went for two recent top 5 picks in Lindholm and Hanifin who were 23 and 21 years old respectively.
Ekblad has 5 years left.

Fox and Ferland were basically throw in sweeteners to balance it out.

Do Pionk, Copp, Heinola and a 1st equal two top 5 picks in value in a vacuum? Then what about the additional 2 years Ekblad has remaining versus the 3 years left of DH

 

[Jimmyjets]

And FLA would be insane to trade a prime aged #1 RD with 5 years left for a winger, as good as he may be.
Yes he may be BFF with Barkov but hopefully FLAs GM just waits out Laine until the price comes down as he gets closer to UFA, and it will eventually, just like Troubas did.

Obviously right. When he's a 1 year rental it'll be a middle 6 forward + 1st + prospect type return.

The real issue is that Laine has 3 years of control and Barkov only has 2. If the idea was to try to entice Barkov to stay for the rest of his career by bringing in one of his best friends, instead of chasing a cup elsewhere you'd need to move sooner than the Jets need to. The piece the Jets would covet the most also has a full NMC kicking in at the end of the season so that option goes away. By the time the asking price is what you'd want to pay in 2 years, Barkov could be gone to UFA and Hub will also be 1 year from UFA but will be 29 years old and starting his decline. Bob will be 35 and still making $10M per year so it may be time to tear it down instead of acquire high priced talent.

I get you'd be against this trade but that's what the return would need to be to make sense for the Jets.

I think it really comes down to how difficult are the signing bonus' to manage for the Panthers with no revenue coming in. My understanding was that the Panthers always lost money but the concerts from the arena more than offset those losses so overall the venture was profitable. With no gate revenue and no concerts, $15ish million in signing bonus money (that doesn't get prorated with a shortened season) could be difficult to cashflow for a team that is a long shot to make the playoffs being stuck behind Tampa, Boston and Toronto in their division they're hoping for a wild card spot at best.

I could see trying to sell tickets based on the best line in the NHL. Obviously isn't going to happen as I think both fanbases would be happiest keeping what they have.

 

[Heldig]

Look at what Dougie Hamilton went for two years ago. Might be the closest comparison to Ekblad.

DH was 24-25 years old at the time, had 3 years left on his deal and went for two recent top 5 picks in Lindholm and Hanifin who were 23 and 21 years old respectively.
Ekblad has 5 years left.

Fox and Ferland were basically throw in sweeteners to balance it out.

Do Pionk, Copp, Heinola and a 1st equal two top 5 picks in value in a vacuum? Then what about the additional 2 years Ekblad has remaining versus the 3 years left of DH

Except I was responding to a comment that it would take more than that for just Huberdeau.

And I really dont think Ferland and Fox were merely sweeteners. Ferland had just had his first 20 goal season (and only 3 fewer points than Lindholm) and was looked at as a budding power forward. Fox was a top D prospect.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Obviously right. When he's a 1 year rental it'll be a middle 6 forward + 1st + prospect type return.

The real issue is that Laine has 3 years of control and Barkov only has 2. If the idea was to try to entice Barkov to stay for the rest of his career by bringing in one of his best friends, instead of chasing a cup elsewhere you'd need to move sooner than the Jets need to. The piece the Jets would covet the most also has a full NMC kicking in at the end of the season so that option goes away. By the time the asking price is what you'd want to pay in 2 years, Barkov could be gone to UFA and Hub will also be 1 year from UFA but will be 29 years old and starting his decline. Bob will be 35 and still making $10M per year so it may be time to tear it down instead of acquire high priced talent.

I get you'd be against this trade but that's what the return would need to be to make sense for the Jets.

I think it really comes down to how difficult are the signing bonus' to manage for the Panthers with no revenue coming in. My understanding was that the Panthers always lost money but the concerts from the arena more than offset those losses so overall the venture was profitable. With no gate revenue and no concerts, $15ish million in signing bonus money (that doesn't get prorated with a shortened season) could be difficult to cashflow for a team that is a long shot to make the playoffs being stuck behind Tampa, Boston and Toronto in their division they're hoping for a wild card spot at best.

I could see trying to sell tickets based on the best line in the NHL. Obviously isn't going to happen as I think both fanbases would be happiest keeping what they have.

I think it comes down to 3 teams at most for Barkov, just like any other big ticket free agent.

Lots of teams may line up but FLA will be one of them and will have that 8th year option as a big money motivator. We currently have $36 million in space ready for him without any major deals due in 2 years unless Tippett becomes a 60-70pt guy off the hop.

Our owner did fairly well this year with his business and is nearing top 10 richest in the league.
We get help from revenue/profit sharing (think Brian Burke said around $25 million a year) + our owner will get a one time check for around $20 million when SEA starts playing.

Huberdeau is likely gone when he is due. Barkov, Ekblad and Bob would be the 3 big deals on the books and Bob's last two years become easier to move because his NMC becomes a 16 team no trade list and the last two years he's owed $6 mil a year.
FLA retains the last two years of the deal to move him if need be. Otherwise you have Knight come in on his ELC and overpay in goaltending for a couple years.

Laine is a luxury and would help but not essential to keeping Barkov in FLA imo.

Except I was responding to a comment that it would take more than that for just Huberdeau.

And I really dont think Ferland and Fox were merely sweeteners. Ferland had just had his first 20 goal season (and only 3 fewer points than Lindholm) and was looked at as a budding power forward. Fox was a top D prospect.

My bad, meant to quote this one below.
My point is still valid that Hamilton was the major chunk of what went for two top 5 picks. WPGs 2021 1st is likely a mid to late 1st, same spot Heinola was picked + Copp who may be undervalued but likely isn't worth a 1st and Pionk may produce points but is nowhere near the all around defenseman Ekblad is.

Connor likely has equal or maybe more value to Huberdeau when you factor in contracts (his 4 extra years) and assumed increased productivity. Its up for debate but the next 3 years are currently in Huberdeaus favor.

First, I noted the Panthers would not do this. They cant afford to deal their clear #1 D in Ekblad. And, yes, it is a quantity for quality deal (to an extent). And I may be under rating Huberdeau.

Still, from a Jets point of view they are giving up a LOT. An elite goal scoring 1st line winger, a good #3 RHD that finished 11th in D points (5th in PPP), a great 3rd line C (I think Copp is extremely under rated), a very good D prospect AND a 1st round pick.

 

[One Winged Angel]

OK, so you think Huberdeau is so much better than Connor the Jets would have to add MORE than Pionk, Copp. Heinola and a 1st? Honestly?

Pionk is a redundant piece for Florida. Why do they want another defenseman who isn’t all that great in his own zone? They need more shutdown/2-way types.

What does a late 1st round pick in a weak draft do for Florida?

Heinola is honestly the only other piece that Florida would value in that package.

It’s more quantity than quality for them.

 

[TS Quint]

Look at what Dougie Hamilton went for two years ago. Might be the closest comparison to Ekblad.

DH was 24-25 years old at the time, had 3 years left on his deal and went for two recent top 5 picks in Lindholm and Hanifin who were 23 and 21 years old respectively.
Ekblad has 5 years left.

Fox and Ferland were basically throw in sweeteners to balance it out.

Do Pionk, Copp, Heinola and a 1st equal two top 5 picks in value in a vacuum? Then what about the additional 2 years Ekblad has remaining versus the 3 years left of DH

I like how you have to pump that trade with “two recent top 5 picks” which means absolutely nothing. You go ahead and pay more for draft position, I got some Yakupov and Galchenyuk trade ideas you are going to love.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

I like how you have to pump that trade with “two recent top 5 picks” which means absolutely nothing. You go ahead and pay more for draft position, I got some Yakupov and Galchenyuk trade ideas you are going to love.

Yes because two players who are 9 and 8 years removed from their draft is the same difference from two players who were 5 and 3 years removed from their draft at the time.
Great detective work there Columbo.
Prospects typically take 3-4 years to develop

 

[TS Quint]

Yes because two players who are 9 and 8 years removed from their draft is the same difference from two players who were 5 and 3 years removed from their draft at the time.
Great detective work there Columbo.
Prospects typically take 3-4 years to develop

wow, I love how you even attempt to justify putting that much weight into what a player did at 17 Vs everything they did within the most recent 3-5 years. Classic Example of trying to shine shit.

maybe we should shine up Barrett Hayton, Lias Andersson, Casey Middlestadt, Jesse Puljujarvi, Olli Juolevi Etc etc

 

[AvroArrow]

So Winnipeg gets the two best players in the deal ? Seems legit

 

[violaswallet]

wow, I love how you even attempt to justify putting that much weight into what a player did at 17 Vs everything they did within the most recent 3-5 years. Classic Example of trying to shine shit.

maybe we should shine up Barrett Hayton, Lias Andersson, Casey Middlestadt, Jesse Puljujarvi, Olli Juolevi Etc etc

I get your point but I think my friend is arguing high-end potential as proxies by draft position

the major difference is argue is that there seemed to push factors for the Hamilton trade that we do not see with Ekblad.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

wow, I love how you even attempt to justify putting that much weight into what a player did at 17 Vs everything they did within the most recent 3-5 years. Classic Example of trying to shine shit.

maybe we should shine up Barrett Hayton, Lias Andersson, Casey Middlestadt, Jesse Puljujarvi, Olli Juolevi Etc etc

Uh both Hanifin and Lindholm were in the NHL at 19 years, one year after their draft years and have played ever since. You saying they're bad players?

Nice cherry picking there, what about the other 80% of top 5 picks (outside the 2012 draft, may be worst in last two decades) that seem to be doing fine?
Which list is longer, the top 5 picks that produce or the top 5 picks that bust?
What a horrible take Columbo

Hayton drafted just two years ago and you're already writing him off?
Middlestadt was drafted 8th overall and has played 114 games to date.
Andersson was drafted 7th overall

 

[TS Quint]

Uh both Hanifin and Lindholm were in the NHL at 19 years, one year after their draft years and have played ever since. You saying they're bad players?

Nice cherry picking there, what about the other 80% of top 5 picks (outside the 2012 draft, may be worst in last two decades) that seem to be doing fine? Which list is longer, the top 5 picks that produce or the top 5 picks that bust?
What a horrible take Columbo

Hayton just drafted two years ago and you're already writing him off?
Middlestadt was drafted 8th overall and has played 114 games to date.

Keep trying to shine it up bud. I gave you examples your plugged your ears and screamed. I have you more recent examples you were looking for, you plugged your ears and screamed some more. Keep moving the goalposts around it doesn’t matter. What a player does as 17 year old is worthless 3-5 years later.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Keep trying to shine it up bud. I gave you examples your plugged your ears and screamed. I have you more recent examples you were looking for, you plugged your ears and screamed some more. Keep moving the goalposts around it doesn’t matter. What a player does as 17 year old is worthless 3-5 years later.

Post the production of ALL top 5 picks within their first 5 years, see which list is longer than.
Show us all your work.
And then show which list is longer, top 5 picks 23 years or younger that are traded vs not traded.

 

[TS Quint]

Post the production of ALL top 5 picks within their first 5 years, see which list is longer than.
Show us all your work.
And then show which list is longer, top 5 picks 23 years or younger that are traded vs not traded.

The fact you lump all players picked in an area of the draft into a single bucket 3-5 years later is hilarious.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

The fact you lump all players picked in an area of the draft into a single bucket 3-5 years later is hilarious.

The fact you are not providing any info to dispute claims to the success rate of top 5 picks vs rest of 1st round is more hilarious.

A Draftee's Chances (1995 to 2006)

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities (2000-2009)

Unfortunately the first article is based off 2 seasons, the second one off 100 games but typically, nobody is crazy enough to track it longer and suggest top 5 picks aren't as successful as the rest of their draft class.

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

Hub has a full NMC so there's no way he's waiving to come to Winnipeg.

Ekblad's NMC is going to kick in after the season so if there was a thought about moving him, because the bonus money is going to be problematic with no fans, etc. the time would be now to move him out.

The offer in the OP is dead because of the NMC for Hub so really IMO the question is Ekblad for ???

Would Florida think they'd need a replacement top 4 RD? They have Stralman and Gudas already and then Nutivara (a LHS that plays RD) and Weegar (a RHS that plays LD). If they think Weegar can move to the Right side or Stalman, Nuti, Gudas is good enough then maybe Pionk isn't really that enticing to them as part of an Ekblad trade?

Obviously Laine for Ekblad is the move that stares you in the face with his relationship with Barkov and the fact he's our only young top 6 forward that isn't locked up long term. We're then back to a bit of a surplus on RD and have some protection issues in the expansion draft but if we were going to make a move it seems like it would just be Ekblad. not the guy with the NMC.

That's nothing of a reason for Florida to trade him at all. Ekblad is a core piece. He's our young #1 defenseman. Those don't get traded unless you have multiple #1 defensemen on the same team, and then you might try to upgrade somewhere else. They are not going to trade him and keep the supporting pieces. The defense is bad enough, trading Ekblad makes no sense for a team like the Panthers. Even if the defense was good, he's still one of the last ones to trade.

 

[TS Quint]

The fact you are not providing any info to dispute claims of top 5 picks vs rest of 1st round success rate is more hilarious.

A Draftee's Chances (1995 to 2006)

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities (2000-2009)

Unfortunately the first article is based off 200 games, the second one off 100 games but typically, nobody is crazy enough to track it longer and suggest top 5 picks aren't as successful as the rest of their draft class.

You are now putting 10 years of draft picks into the same bucket when we are talking about specific players? HAHAHAHA!

I already provided you specific examples twice because we are talking about specific players. Maybe reading is hard for you. Whatever it is you think you are doing doesn’t even make sense if you are receiving a draft pick for next years draft because all drafts aren’t equal. Never mind you think that all players have equal value 3-5 years later. But keep shining it!

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

You are now putting 10 years of draft picks into the same bucket when we are talking about specific players? HAHAHAHA!

I already provided you specific examples twice because we are talking about specific players. Maybe reading is hard for you. Whatever it is you think you are doing doesn’t even make sense if you are receiving a draft pick for next years draft because all drafts aren’t equal. Never mind you think that all players have equal value 3-5 years later. But keep shining it!

Are you saying Hanifin and Lindholm aren't good top 5 picks or decent NHL players?

Laughing like the Joker in all caps and telling me I can't read isn't proving your point.
So 20% of the time your argument is right?
But 80% of the time it's wrong?
Whatever floats your boat Columbo.

 

[TS Quint]

So 20% of the time your argument is right?
But 80% of the time it's wrong?
Whatever floats your boat Columbo.

LMAO! This isn’t a general player in a trade, these are specific players. You have moved the goal posts so far it’s not even the same conversation. According to what you are laying out Puljujarvi has the same value if not more as Pettersson. HAHAHAHA! Keep up the good work.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

LMAO! This isn’t a general player in a trade, these are specific players. You have moved the goal posts so far it’s not even the same conversation. According to what you are laying out Puljujarvi has the same value if not more as Pettersson. HAHAHAHA! Keep up the good work.

I specifically brought up the Hamilton trade as Hanifin and Lindholm are decent NHL players and were recent top 5 picks when traded.
You still won't answer whether they are good players or not.

You moved the goal posts by bringing up other top 5 to 10 picks that have busted to try and shit on the value of two top 5 picks.