Speculation: Jets - General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation (Part XVII)

[Grind]

True, but there is more to it than "Bogo was bad in Atlanta". There are more variables than that.

When Bogo was in Atlanta he was 18-20. He had an un-repaired wrist injury. He had a coach that was terrible at coaching him, etc.

IMO, you can't compare each of these seasons and give them equal weight. What Bogo was doing at 18 or 19 is a metric, but it shouldn't have equal value to the more recent play. And yes, his most recent play has a bad 20 game stretch. Some might not think he was injured and give him no leeway, I think he was so I do. I doubt we will ever know, so that might have to be left apart.

You're saying you are looking at some of the historical data from Bogo's 18 to 20 year old years and saying "look, here is some evidence that he has played poorly." I'm saying that it's rare for defenseman to even have those 18-20 year old years in the NHL to look back at. In this instance, Bogo is being punished in that case because he was in the NHL when 99% of other defensemen are not.

I'm not trying to make out like I'm making all kinds of excuses for him. IMO, he needs to come back healthy and play 100% better than he did for the 1st 20. I'm just saying it seems like a very quick turn around on the perception of Bogo in just 20 games.

Last year we were all pretty happy he got extended for 7 years. Maybe the money was a little high, but with the way he played last season, the idea was he would be well worth it. In the minds of many, he was playing excellent on the 2nd pair, and was looking to push to become a true top pairing guy. He was already playing 25 minutes a night. How many times was he winning survivor polls here? I mean, the guy was on the Olympic radar for pete's sake.

And now, after 20 games, all that has gone down the tubes?

You and matt make good points.

all I can say is..... fair deuce.

I agree, if he comes back and plays lights out after this injury that'll be just dandy.

I just think his achievements the last two years get a little blown out of proportion as well. He was only playing as, on average, a #3 and a #4, and i've had the concern that some of that might have had quite a bit to do with everyone's favorite ex-jet The Negotiator.

Certainly he was mismanaged in LA (EDIT: uhhh ATL...). And yes, its surprising he was able to play then even at all. But i don't like the idea of completely striking that from the record book, or assuming #3 now means #1 later.

Tempered enthusiasm i guess is all...that and i must admit i've been a little bit of a debbie downer for most of this season. Call me disenchanted but i'm getting wary of our "rising stars" propensity to rise.

 

[Huffer]

I hear ya too Grind.

Bogo could still come back, play poorly, regress, etc. I guess I'm not so much saying that can't or won't happen, I'm just surprised how quickly, and seemingly easily some perceptions have changed.

Like we switched from our "core" D man, locked up long term, looking to make the next step on the top pair, possible Olympian, To, possibly regressing, grenade contract, and possible trade bait in 20 games?

 

[truck]

Year one he was 21 years old and you're saying he was playing as a #3. And you're saying at the end of last year (at 22 and coming off of a wrist surgery) he was looking like a #2 (a little more than #3).

That's exactly what I am saying. That's pretty good IMO for a 22 year old. Maybe it's not AP, but we didn't draft AP, so I'm comparing him to the average production of 22 year old defenseman.

The only place we differ I think, is I'm scratching my head why we would look at this last 20 game sample size, and injury or no, start to question the guy to the point that he's in trade proposals. After they signed him for 7 more years.

And if there is even a chance that he WAS injured, I just don't see how we're so quick to want to jump to ANY conclusions until we see how he can play when healthy.

I don't think I am looking at this 20 game stretch more than an other 20 game stretch. It is his career trajectory that worries me and the fact that he doesn't appear to be thinking the game any better this year than he did two years ago.

Bogo is a great athlete. I don't worry about his athletics (which would be impacted by injuries), I worry about how he thinks the game. I worry about this based on his 318 games played, not his most recent 21.

There is an easy case to be made that last year's 33 games is the outlier - and he wasn't flawless in that stretch.

Bogo may come back and figure things out. Perhaps he just needs to find the right partner, but I do have concerns. That's all I'm saying.

 

[Huffer]

So you're saying that Bogo's game one at 18, carries the same weight as his last game in the season last year in trying to determine his trajectory?

Also, I'm not saying there are not concerns, just wondering how some opinions have changed so quickly.

I don't think I am looking at this 20 game stretch more than an other 20 game stretch. It is his career trajectory that worries me and the fact that he doesn't appear to be thinking the game any better this year than he did two years ago.

Bogo is a great athlete. I don't worry about his athletics (which would be impacted by injuries), I worry about how he thinks the game. I worry about this based on his 318 games played, not his most recent 21.

There is an easy case to be made that last year's 33 games is the outlier - and he wasn't flawless in that stretch.

Bogo may come back and figure things out. Perhaps he just needs to find the right partner, but I do have concerns. That's all I'm saying.

 

[truck]

I hear ya too Grind.

Bogo could still come back, play poorly, regress, etc. I guess I'm not so much saying that can't or won't happen, I'm just surprised how quickly, and seemingly easily some perceptions have changed.

Like we switched from our "core" D man, locked up long term, looking to make the next step on the top pair, possible Olympian, To, possibly regressing, grenade contract, and possible trade bait in 20 games?

I haven't switched away from any of that stuff because I never said any of that stuff.

That being said, I am not really worried about his contract. Something in the McDonagh range would have been a little more comfortable, but I don't thing he is overpaid by a ton.

So you're saying that Bogo's game one at 18, carries the same weight as his last game in the season last year in trying to determine his trajectory?

Also, I'm not saying there are not concerns, just wondering how some opinions have changed so quickly.

I am not saying game 1 carries the same weight as game 318, I am talking about the progression (or lack there of) from game 1 to game 318.

That matters.

 

[Huffer]

True, that would have been better, but Bogo already played 5 years and already had a bridge deal. McD had 3 years played so he had a little less leverage.

I haven't switched away from any of that stuff because I never said any of that stuff.

That being said, I am not really worried about his contract. Something in the McDonagh range would have been a little more comfortable, but I don't thing he is overpaid by a ton.

 

[buggs]

Can we move Kane instead of Buff? I left the Chicago game with the distinct impression I wanted to keep one and not the other, thinking maybe there's an even better return for Kane out there? Cranky now, may change mind later.

 

[JC Numminen]

Can we move Kane instead of Buff? I left the Chicago game with the distinct impression I wanted to keep one and not the other, thinking maybe there's an even better return for Kane out there? Cranky now, may change mind later.

Thinking this myself, came over to say this exact same thing. I imagine the return could be amazing, he just dosent seem to be a fit with the jets. If we trade him, it could be a great desicion or a horrible one.

 

[KingBogo]

I actually to tend to start the clock for Bogosian the day he arrived in Winnipeg. To be honest he was rushed and developed like a steaming pile of dog **** in Atlanta. I think it's pretty evident if Zach/Atlanta did not move to Winnipeg, god knows how his career would have transpired to this point. Truthfully, I hate thinking about it as someone who watched all of his junior hockey in the OHL. Kid was a stud at a young age, got thrown to the wolves in the NHL, chewed up and spit out by a highly incompetent NHL organization. All while sustaining and fighting a wrist injury and broken leg through those years. To put it bluntly, it completely ****ed him. When you are that young, confidence and the mental state of the game and life in general can sink you quicker than you know it, and it did just that with Zach. Getting the hell out of Atlanta was a blessing, and it showed nearly immediately. I view his time in Atlanta as a period of time not to take a single damn ounce of it in correlation to the player he was, is or can be. But, that's just me.

I'm with Huffer on this one. I've seen enough of Bogosian to believe we've got a gem here and a legit top 3, hopefully top pairing guy in the near future. Sometimes I wish we would play Bogosian 25-30 minutes a night, he can take it, and to me he is better the more he plays. I believe he's said as much, and sure many players would say that but there was a period where our defense was banged up and Zach was getting some real prime minutes and looked great in doing so. A part of me is excited for the departure of Byfuglien if only so we can hand the reigns over to Bogosian (though I understand Trouba could very well jump Bogosian, we'll see), because I think he'll run with them when given the full on opportunity to be 'the guy'. When you see the play he's demonstrated in Winnipeg alone, there is enough there for me to think he's got it, he's just got to put it all together at once, and I think he will; I surely hope he will.

I have felt the same as Huffer re; Bogosian possibly fighting an injury this season, and in my opinion/guess work it dates back to game one vs. Edmonton where he took that hit that put him down and sent him to the bench in pain. They showed him on the bench and it was clear he endured something. All I was thinking was "oh no, please don't be injured". I am personally placing my bets that he did sustain some sort of injury that game and night and it has lingered with him this season.

True, but there is more to it than "Bogo was bad in Atlanta". There are more variables than that.

When Bogo was in Atlanta he was 18-20. He had an un-repaired wrist injury. He had a coach that was terrible at coaching him, etc.

IMO, you can't compare each of these seasons and give them equal weight. What Bogo was doing at 18 or 19 is a metric, but it shouldn't have equal value to the more recent play. And yes, his most recent play has a bad 20 game stretch. Some might not think he was injured and give him no leeway, I think he was so I do. I doubt we will ever know, so that might have to be left apart.

You're saying you are looking at some of the historical data from Bogo's 18 to 20 year old years and saying "look, here is some evidence that he has played poorly." I'm saying that it's rare for defenseman to even have those 18-20 year old years in the NHL to look back at. In this instance, Bogo is being punished in that case because he was in the NHL when 99% of other defensemen are not.

I'm not trying to make out like I'm making all kinds of excuses for him. IMO, he needs to come back healthy and play 100% better than he did for the 1st 20. I'm just saying it seems like a very quick turn around on the perception of Bogo in just 20 games.

Last year we were all pretty happy he got extended for 7 years. Maybe the money was a little high, but with the way he played last season, the idea was he would be well worth it. In the minds of many, he was playing excellent on the 2nd pair, and was looking to push to become a true top pairing guy. He was already playing 25 minutes a night. How many times was he winning survivor polls here? I mean, the guy was on the Olympic radar for pete's sake.

And now, after 20 games, all that has gone down the tubes?

I like to thank everyone who posted on this thread today, it is easily the best discussion I've read in a long time and reminded me why I joined a couple years ago. People don't always have to see eye to eye but a nice balanced insightful discussion is enjoyable to read through.

MattG and Huffer almost match my views entirely. Does Bogo make the odd bonehead play yes, but he also does a lot that goes unnoticed. I was at tonights game and sure there were no glaring giveaways (okay a couple), but the Hawks basically had free reign in our end and controlled the puck uncontested for large parts of the game. IMO we are a much better team with Bogo in the lineup, and our win-loss record with him in and out of the lineup would support this. He is still at the age when a lot of good defenseman are just breaking into the league. My fear is we bail on Bogo and he lands somewhere stable puts his injury problems behind and in 5 years we are the team that gave away a heart and sole top pairing guy for peanuts. I believe Chevy sees that and he will ride out some of these down times with the big picture in mind.

 

[Duke749]

I like to thank everyone who posted on this thread today, it is easily the best discussion I've read in a long time and reminded me why I joined a couple years ago. People don't always have to see eye to eye but a nice balanced insightful discussion is enjoyable to read through.

MattG and Huffer almost match my views entirely. Does Bogo make the odd bonehead play yes, but he also does a lot that goes unnoticed. I was at tonights game and sure there were no glaring giveaways (okay a couple), but the Hawks basically had free reign in our end and controlled the puck uncontested for large parts of the game. IMO we are a much better team with Bogo in the lineup, and our win-loss record with him in and out of the lineup would support this. He is still at the age when a lot of good defenseman are just breaking into the league. My fear is we bail on Bogo and he lands somewhere stable puts his injury problems behind and in 5 years we are the team that gave away a heart and sole top pairing guy for peanuts. I believe Chevy sees that and he will ride out some of these down times with the big picture in mind.

Well of course we'd look better with Bogo in the line up. You'd be inserting at worst a #4 defenseman for at best a #5 defenseman.

 

[jetkarma*]

My fear is we bail on Bogo and he lands somewhere stable puts his injury problems behind and in 5 years we are the team that gave away a heart and sole top pairing guy for peanuts. I believe Chevy sees that and he will ride out some of these down times with the big picture in mind.

I don't think you are or were implying we would give Bogo away for peanuts , but just to make sure , there is zero doubt in my mind that would not happen.

If Chevy did trade Bogo or another what we consider a key piece I believe it would be for at the very least a fair return. At least what would be considered that at the time , we can't predict the future.

However GM's are supposed to make educated decisions and if we do make a significant trade I am confident it would be for much much more than peanuts.

I very much agree with you in that I also believe Chevy has the big picture in mind and no major decision will be short sighted.

 

[KingBogo]

I don't think you are or were implying we would give Bogo away for peanuts , but just to make sure , there is zero doubt in my mind that would not happen.

If Chevy did trade Bogo or another what we consider a key piece I believe it would be for at the very least a fair return. At least what would be considered that at the time , we can't predict the future.

However GM's are supposed to make educated decisions and if we do make a significant trade I am confident it would be for much much more than peanuts.

I very much agree with you in that I also believe Chevy has the big picture in mind and no major decision will be short sighted.

IMO it may seem like a fair price to some now, but in 5 years it may just look like peanuts if he actually develops into a top pairing guy. I also think cutting Bogo loose would have other rippling effects. No Jet has embraced the city like he has and no Jet appears to reach out as consistently and generously to the young guys and prospects. IMO he is a heart and sole guy, who is a natural leader, who doesn't crave the glimmer of the big cities and that actually has high end talent. Again IMO when we luck into something like that we should hold onto it.

 

[truck]

Can we move Kane instead of Buff? I left the Chicago game with the distinct impression I wanted to keep one and not the other, thinking maybe there's an even better return for Kane out there? Cranky now, may change mind later.

What kind (age range / stage of development) of players would you get for Kane?

I can't see how moving him - unless you get a package of players the same age - does anything but more the Jets timeline backwards.

Byfuglien, Wheeler, Ladd and Enstrom will be in their 30s when this team rounds into a competitive group - their impact will be limited at that point.

The point of moving a Byfuglien (or other) IMO would be to players in around 20 years old that could grow with the new younger core of Bogo, Kane, Scheifele and Trouba. If not, you have two choices - get older (really dumb idea) or get younger (probably should have done this years ago / fan base won't be happy).

2008 1st round pick - Zach Bogosian
2009 1st round pick - Evander Kane (traded)
2010 1st round pick - Alex Burmistrov (KHL)
2011 1st round pick - Mark Scheifele

Losing back to back too 10 picks within a year would be pretty horrid and no doubt set the team back.

 

[Huffer]

As Truck indicates, to move Kane, I think you need to get guys that are no more than 24 or 25 years old. Preferably with RFA status, or terms on their deal. I don't think you can even think about moving Kane for older guys in some sort of "win now" move. The Jets are not at that stage.

A hypothetical trade on the trade boards that I think would be the best kind of blueprint would be something like Eller + Gallager. The Jets would lose the more dynamic player with the most upside, but the hope is that the two guys end up making the team better overall.

 

[Grind]

As Truck indicates, to move Kane, I think you need to get guys that are no more than 24 or 25 years old. Preferably with RFA status, or terms on their deal. I don't think you can even think about moving Kane for older guys in some sort of "win now" move. The Jets are not at that stage.

A hypothetical trade on the trade boards that I think would be the best kind of blueprint would be something like Eller + Gallager. The Jets would lose the more dynamic player with the most upside, but the hope is that the two guys end up making the team better overall.

I don't like that.


Not for kane. I don't know what eller is but i'm not convinced he's much more then a tweener 3rd/2nd C. You can usually acquire one of those through other means. Gallagher as well, too much of a "potential" boner for upping his value IMO.


Kanes a 5v5 30 goal scorer. That's a pretty rare asset. Those two pieces are good, but i don't think i do that trade.

I'm down on Kane at the moment, but i still think i hold off unless a deal really blows me away, and Eller + Gally doesn't.

 

[truck]

As Truck indicates, to move Kane, I think you need to get guys that are no more than 24 or 25 years old. Preferably with RFA status, or terms on their deal. I don't think you can even think about moving Kane for older guys in some sort of "win now" move. The Jets are not at that stage.

A hypothetical trade on the trade boards that I think would be the best kind of blueprint would be something like Eller + Gallager. The Jets would lose the more dynamic player with the most upside, but the hope is that the two guys end up making the team better overall.

I'd suggest even 24 or 25 might be a little bit too old. At that point we largely know who players are and historically players tend to peak statistically at 25 or 26. I'd lean towards players in the 19-23 range.

 

[truck]

I don't like that.


Not for kane. I don't know what eller is but i'm not convinced he's much more then a tweener 3rd/2nd C. You can usually acquire one of those through other means. Gallagher as well, too much of a "potential" boner for upping his value IMO.


Kanes a 5v5 30 goal scorer. That's a pretty rare asset. Those two pieces are good, but i don't think i do that trade.

I'm down on Kane at the moment, but i still think i hold off unless a deal really blows me away, and Eller + Gally doesn't.

Aye. If you are trading Kane it would have to be for a BAD ASS package including a young NHLer, a top flight prospect or two and a 1st round pick.

 

[Heldig]

The one thing that scares me in talk about trading Kane is the Selanne deal.

Inevitably, talks are about trading a young, struggling scorer for a couple of promising players that maybe fit the needs of the team...

Kilger - the big, strong 2 way centre the team needs to be competitive and
Tverdovsky - the dynamic power play guy

More often than not when you trade the more talented player with higher upside, you lose the trade.

Big trades are even more difficult nowadays as salary cap plays such a huge role in deals.

IMO the challenge for the coaching staff and the GM are to find pieces that work with Kane not trading Kane to try and find pieces that work better.

 

[Jet]

The one thing that scares me in talk about trading Kane is the Selanne deal.

Inevitably, talks are about trading a young, struggling scorer for a couple of promising players that maybe fit the needs of the team...

Kilger - the big, strong 2 way centre the team needs to be competitive and
Tverdovsky - the dynamic power play guy

More often than not when you trade the more talented player with higher upside, you lose the trade.

Big trades are even more difficult nowadays as salary cap plays such a huge role in deals.

IMO the challenge for the coaching staff and the GM are to find pieces that work with Kane not trading Kane to try and find pieces that work better.

Thats fine except we all know the Selanne trade had nothing to do with hockey.

In this day and age there is no way we make that trade. We keep Teemu until he hangs em up.

 

[Huffer]

I don't like that.


Not for kane. I don't know what eller is but i'm not convinced he's much more then a tweener 3rd/2nd C. You can usually acquire one of those through other means. Gallagher as well, too much of a "potential" boner for upping his value IMO.


Kanes a 5v5 30 goal scorer. That's a pretty rare asset. Those two pieces are good, but i don't think i do that trade.

I'm down on Kane at the moment, but i still think i hold off unless a deal really blows me away, and Eller + Gally doesn't.

That's cool. I'm not saying I think that's the "best" we could do, I was just putting out there what I would personally hope for in terms of a blueprint. I do think that is a pretty decent return though.

I'd suggest even 24 or 25 might be a little bit too old. At that point we largely know who players are and historically players tend to peak statistically at 25 or 26. I'd lean towards players in the 19-23 range.

That would be ok too. I just don't want to see him traded for someone 30+ in what I would consider a short sighted move.

Aye. If you are trading Kane it would have to be for a BAD ASS package including a young NHLer, a top flight prospect or two and a 1st round pick.

That would be good too, but I think MattG made some good points yesterday about getting the guy or guys back that you want.

Just for arguments sake lets use Montreal. If the options are:

A) Two young NHL'rs (Eller + Gallager)

or

B) One young NHL'r (Eller), + Prospect (Tinordi?), + 1st

are we really all that better off with B over A? Unless you are very sure in the prospect, and the team you are trading with is closer to picking in the teens than the end of the round, isn't there more risk in B?

You would have to think if the Jets were open to moving Kane though that it wouldn't be very hard. He's young, but he can also help now. So both contending, and rebuilding teams would want him.

 

[Grind]

The one thing that scares me in talk about trading Kane is the Selanne deal.

Inevitably, talks are about trading a young, struggling scorer for a couple of promising players that maybe fit the needs of the team...

Kilger - the big, strong 2 way centre the team needs to be competitive and
Tverdovsky - the dynamic power play guy

More often than not when you trade the more talented player with higher upside, you lose the trade.

Big trades are even more difficult nowadays as salary cap plays such a huge role in deals.

IMO the challenge for the coaching staff and the GM are to find pieces that work with Kane not trading Kane to try and find pieces that work better.

Very well put.


it's like saying $5 + $5 = $10, but $10 bills have gone out of print.


I agree we should be trying to find at least one forward that works with Kane (either a cente ror a winger) and the third wheel should fill the deficiencys left.

 

[Grind]

That's cool. I'm not saying I think that's the "best" we could do, I was just putting out there what I would personally hope for in terms of a blueprint. I do think that is a pretty decent return though.



That would be ok too. I just don't want to see him traded for someone 30+ in what I would consider a short sighted move.



That would be good too, but I think MattG made some good points yesterday about getting the guy or guys back that you want.

Just for arguments sake lets use Montreal. If the options are:

A) Two young NHL'rs (Eller + Gallager)

or

B) One young NHL'r (Eller), + Prospect (Tinordi?), + 1st

are we really all that better off with B over A? Unless you are very sure in the prospect, and the team you are trading with is closer to picking in the teens than the end of the round, isn't there more risk in B?

You would have to think if the Jets were open to moving Kane though that it wouldn't be very hard. He's young, but he can also help now. So both contending, and rebuilding teams would want him.

My problem with Eller is his ceiling is a consistent 2 C. I still think it's unlikely he becomes that. That's just not a piece i want. Even if he's young, youth doesn't always get better with age, and a 3c tweener at 23 isn't garaunteed to become a full time 2c. If i'm moving Kane, i want a forward of Little's quality + picks/prospects.

It's the rarity for me. Even if Eller reaches that ceiling...there's a good chance you can land that player in F/A.


I don't want a young NHL'r with "possible top 6 upside" i want a young "garaunteed" top 6 NHL'r + picks and prospects.


Upon rereading I realise i missed the point of your post: To me the point is, I don't want either of thos epackages. I keep Kane over both of those every day of the week.

 

[Huffer]

My problem with Eller is his ceiling is a consistent 2 C. I still think it's unlikely he becomes that. That's just not a piece i want. Even if he's young, youth doesn't always get better with age, and a 3c tweener at 23 isn't garaunteed to become a full time 2c. If i'm moving Kane, i want a forward of Little's quality + picks/prospects.

It's the rarity for me. Even if Eller reaches that ceiling...there's a good chance you can land that player in F/A.


I don't want a young NHL'r with "possible top 6 upside" i want a young "garaunteed" top 6 NHL'r + picks and prospects.


Upon rereading I realise i missed the point of your post: To me the point is, I don't want either of thos epackages. I keep Kane over both of those every day of the week.

I hope that IF the Jets decide to move Kane that they get a whole tonne back too.

I just have to look at it from the other team's perspective. If they have a young, guaranteed top 6 NHL'r with upside (what Kane is), why are they adding picks and prospects to get Kane?

 

[roosemoose]

I would like the Jets to take a shot at landing Brayden Schenn, he is young and talented and possibly could help this club.

 

[Grind]

I hope that IF the Jets decide to move Kane that they get a whole tonne back too.

I just have to look at it from the other team's perspective. If they have a young, guaranteed top 6 NHL'r with upside (what Kane is), why are they adding picks and prospects to get Kane?

I guess the difference to me is the upside. I still legitimately see Kanes upside as a top 15-20 LW in the league at his peak. Call it "elite" upside. I don't expect that kind of ceiling in my young top sixer coming back. I want a young, top half second liner, and the picks and prospects.

Players like kane imo are very very VERY hard to find.

first liners are very hard to find

high end second liners are hard to find

second/third line tweeners are not hard to find.