Speculation: Jets - General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation (Part XVII)

[Grind]

I don't think it's as simple as just favorite color, for me. I just think there are other types and styles of cars out there that I think would be of better fit, more reliable. Will we ever get one? maybe, maybe not. Should I be happy with what we've got? probably, maybe, but maybe not.

And, for me it's not just a Byfuglien problem with this team, it's Pavelec, Wheeler, Bogosian, etc. We're an inconsistent team because those who we rely on the most are inconsistent, in my opinion. I think, or hope they can be good enough, consistent enough. They'll have to be if this core group will ever be worth a damn.

I don't think we'll ever see eye to eye on this one mat

I dunno, its a results based business. Buff gets results in the top 30-40 in the league for his position.

I just have a major bone with downgrading to appease something other then strait results.

To me "consistancy" is just another word for "good results". Buff may appear to put forth an "inconsistent" effort, but he "consistantly" performs as top 30-40 dman. Sometimes he performs as a top 5 dman. sometimes he performs as 50-100 dman. but it averages out to be in that top 30 IMO. And i assure you, none of his fellow top 30 dmen perform as 20-30 dmen EVERY game. they, like buff, have their ups and downs.


I guess the root is, do you believe consistancy is something different then result? If so, we won't agree, as i believe at this level of performance, consistancy is mostly just a narrative.

You don't amass the metrics buff has over the past 3-4 seasons without being a better D man then 90% of the league more often then not.

I think people get painted as "not being consistnat" because we watch them. We see them every game.

Ex, Pavelec.

Pavelec can be a great goalie some games. He can be terrible others. So people say he's inconsistant. The problem is, i would wager that most of the goalies with similar carreer numbers to pav are the exact same. None of them show up and are .908 goalies every game. They throw up a big game then suck for 3 games. The difference between great goalies and goalies like pav is that when a great goalie sucks for 3 games, it's at a considerably higher level then Pav sucking.


this post got a lot longer then it was suppsoed to.


TLDR: Consistancy is just another word for results. Buff gets results. Anything else is aesthetics. Buff players like a top 5 some games, and bottom 50 others, but it evens out to a top 30. I don't believe the player that plays like a 20-30 every game exists.

 

[truck]

I don't think we will hear if Bogo was really playing this season injured or not. With the way his skating looked all year, and the fact that it took basically nothing (no big hit, I don't think anything that is captured on screen), for Bogo to now have a serious groin injury, it's obvious to me that he has been playing injured. Maybe others don't think so, or think that's an excuse, but I've thought he was injured since the beginning of the season, and his play has reflected that IMO.

I think some of the comments about Bogo's recent 21 games this year, and how he's been a disappointment, and people now talking about trading him are more than surprising, and especially from people that have been here for years.

Does no one remember how Bogo played last year? When he missed the first half of the shortened season, played his first game in February, and played 25 bloody minutes? He immediately stepped in the lineup, Enstrom gets injured the same night, and Bogo is one of our best defenseman.

There seems to be a lot of hand wringing for a guy that's shown how good he can be as recent as last season, over a 20 game stretch where there's a high probability he's been playing injured.

I thought he was good over that stretch, but I don't think he really took a massive step. He still made a number of odd errors. Watching him regress this year makes me nervous, especially as his errors seem to be more on the mental side than the physical side.

 

[Guerzy]

Fantastic post, Grind, excellent points and truthfully I think you're right.

At the end of the day my opinion is (and hey, I could be wrong!) I just don't think this Jets team will get to where we want to be with Byfuglien in the role he is in for this team, even if the results indicate he's a top 30 defenseman, which I agree with you, he is. I just don't think he is a top pairing guy on a top end team, and in order for us to be that team one day, I think it's going to be without #33.

 

[bennysflyers16]

I was busy yest and missed all this fun

Flyers fan perspective .

I would much rather have Bogo than Buff but it is well known they love Buff so not gonna even talk Bogo (worth way more imo). If we are to assume that it is based round Brayden for Buff the question is who goes with Brayden. Jets should ask for Coburn ( NTC, and playing well) or Grossmann who would be killer back in the Western conference. Big mean solid stay at home guy, although he will be the perfect partner for Buff. Untouchable from Flyers if it is Brayden going are this years 1st, Laughton(Brayden repl), Morin , Hagg and Ghost. As dumb as Flyers have been in past, they have a nice little stable of D man that they have drafted and they are committed to seeing them through.

I think the deal of Schenns for Buff works for both teams, nothing added by either team. I am not a Buff fan and am so against trading a young forward again , but this is what I think the FLyers would do. The Schenns would be close to home as well, so would be happy in the Peg. And fyi, Luke is no where near as bad as media makes him to be, they are ****ing with his confidence, he was our best D man last year. His physical nature would help the Jets D in west as well.

 

[Grind]

Fantastic post, Grind, excellent points and truthfully I think you're right.

At the end of the day my opinion is (and hey, I could be wrong!) I just don't think this Jets team will get to where we want to be with Byfuglien in the role he is in for this team, even if the results indicate he's a top 30 defenseman, which I agree with you, he is. I just don't think he is a top pairing guy on a top end team, and in order for us to be that team one day, I think it's going to be without #33.

fair enough!

I guess the other thing is...what does the difference do for us now?

and so the plot thickens...


I do think, we could be a contender now with Enstroma nd Buff on the top pair. Honestly to me, they are probably the only facet/role on this team that could do their job "on a contender" (maybe LLW as well if its a "boston style" forward core).

The problem to me is with bogo's apparent regression we do not have "contender" 2nd and third d pairs, and we'll need Schief and "mystery RW" to step up for have a"contender" 2nd line. I think Frolik is "contender" 3rd line material, and joki might even be (for a year or two), but for the most part were missing bottom six "contender" pieces as well.


So i guess that's the problem. To me they are some of the "only" contender pieces we have. That being said, that's why it probably makes sense to trade them, as are we realistically likely to acquire the other necessary "contender" pieces within their shelf life?

 

[Mathmew Purrrr Oh]

I was busy yest and missed all this fun

Flyers fan perspective .

I would much rather have Bogo than Buff but it is well known they love Buff so not gonna even talk Bogo (worth way more imo). If we are to assume that it is based round Brayden for Buff the question is who goes with Brayden. Jets should ask for Coburn ( NTC, and playing well) or Grossmann who would be killer back in the Western conference. Big mean solid stay at home guy, although he will be the perfect partner for Buff. Untouchable from Flyers if it is Brayden going are this years 1st, Laughton(Brayden repl), Morin , Hagg and Ghost. As dumb as Flyers have been in past, they have a nice little stable of D man that they have drafted and they are committed to seeing them through.

I think the deal of Schenns for Buff works for both teams, nothing added by either team. I am not a Buff fan and am so against trading a young forward again , but this is what I think the FLyers would do. The Schenns would be close to home as well, so would be happy in the Peg. And fyi, Luke is no where near as bad as media makes him to be, they are ****ing with his confidence, he was our best D man last year. His physical nature would help the Jets D in west as well.

how has Manning been playing?

edit: not to be a part of a deal necessarily, I'm just curious

 

[Huffer]

I thought he was good over that stretch, but I don't think he really took a massive step. He still made a number of odd errors. Watching him regress this year makes me nervous, especially as his errors seem to be more on the mental side than the physical side.

I agree, he didn't take a massive step last year or anything. Not towards AP levels for sure.

I'm just saying, some of the hand wringing seems very disproportional when compared to how Bogo played over a larger sample size last year, and under the assumption that he has been injured this year.

 

[Huffer]

I was busy yest and missed all this fun

Flyers fan perspective .

I would much rather have Bogo than Buff but it is well known they love Buff so not gonna even talk Bogo (worth way more imo). If we are to assume that it is based round Brayden for Buff the question is who goes with Brayden. Jets should ask for Coburn ( NTC, and playing well) or Grossmann who would be killer back in the Western conference. Big mean solid stay at home guy, although he will be the perfect partner for Buff. Untouchable from Flyers if it is Brayden going are this years 1st, Laughton(Brayden repl), Morin , Hagg and Ghost. As dumb as Flyers have been in past, they have a nice little stable of D man that they have drafted and they are committed to seeing them through.

I think the deal of Schenns for Buff works for both teams, nothing added by either team. I am not a Buff fan and am so against trading a young forward again , but this is what I think the FLyers would do. The Schenns would be close to home as well, so would be happy in the Peg. And fyi, Luke is no where near as bad as media makes him to be, they are ****ing with his confidence, he was our best D man last year. His physical nature would help the Jets D in west as well.

Good to have your input Benny.

Would love to have Laughton on the Jets. I'd even be so generous to send Lukas Sutter the other way. jk.

 

[truck]

I agree, he didn't take a massive step last year or anything. Not towards AP levels for sure.

I'm just saying, some of the hand wringing seems very disproportional when compared to how Bogo played over a larger sample size last year, and under the assumption that he has been injured this year.

The larger sample size was only 33 games vs 21 this year and many over the years previous.

 

[bennysflyers16]

how has Manning been playing?

edit: not to be a part of a deal necessarily, I'm just curious

Pretty good, but no future with the FLyers imo. Guys like Laurisden are ahead of him and the biggest surprise is Mark Alt who imo is the top D man on the Phantoms.

 

[bennysflyers16]

Good to have your input Benny.

Would love to have Laughton on the Jets. I'd even be so generous to send Lukas Sutter the other way. jk.

No doubt. It is very apparent that he is too good for Jr and I was happy the Flyers sent him down, but his almost 2 pt per game avg is crazy to go along with his overall defensive game. Was named captain of OHL select team and some say good shot at captain of WJHC. I assume his stock could go through the roof after the WJHC and everyone sees how good he is. The FLyers record of drafting forwards or centers in later 1st round picks is insane !!

Now defenceman Getting Morin and Hagg this year and Ghost looking like a home run should help though and I believe they are close to untouchable as they have to start developing D man and they finally admit that neglecting that has hurt the team.

It is weird with Buff as I am one of his biggest critics, but he either is growing on me or I am secretly trying to convince myself I like him cause I have a feeling he will be a Flyer.

 

[allan5oh]

Benny do you think buff for b schenn and Coburn could possibly happen? I think the jets add but not much. I think angry coburn with angry bogosian would be a force of nature.

 

[garret9]

I find that depth is the problem not consistency. All players have inconsistencies. The standard deviation of performance in players doesn't seem to differ.

The more good players you have though, the better chance that when one is having a bad game, another one is having a good game. This is how you win with depth model.

The greater your best players are, the less likely their "bad games" are not good enough. This is how you win with top heavy model.

Both model you have huge inconsistencies in play, the difference is having a lot of good players so you always have someone firing or you have a few amazing players who bad games are still usually ok relatively speaking.

For the Jets they need 3 possession + lines and 2 pairs to make it as a contender. Historically we've never have had more than 2 lines and one pair (although Ron-Bogo was close).


I'm okay with trading Byfugline because he is a great piece for a contender with tons of value and we have an over abundance of RHD so we have depth to make up for it. However, I am to be honest skeptical if Bogosian ever will get the elite results that Byfuglien gets.

 

[Grind]

I find that depth is the problem not consistency. All players have inconsistencies. The standard deviation of performance in players doesn't seem to differ.

The more good players you have though, the better chance that when one is having a bad game, another one is having a good game. This is how you win with depth model.

The greater your best players are, the less likely their "bad games" are not good enough. This is how you win with top heavy model.

Both model you have huge inconsistencies in play, the difference is having a lot of good players so you always have someone firing or you have a few amazing players who bad games are still usually ok relatively speaking.

For the Jets they need 3 possession + lines and 2 pairs to make it as a contender. Historically we've never have had more than 2 lines and one pair (although Ron-Bogo was close).


I'm okay with trading Byfugline because he is a great piece for a contender with tons of value and we have an over abundance of RHD so we have depth to make up for it. However, I am to be honest skeptical if Bogosian ever will get the elite results that Byfuglien gets.

and that's the question....but what if trouba can? Well bless my nickers and call me susan, i'll learn to fly, steal a plane, and deliver buff myself.


unfortunately i'm not so convinced either Trouba or Bogo can get those results. That being said, I don't think we're likely to acquire the depth to support buff to make those results "valuable" before he starts to degrade.

 

[Huffer]

The larger sample size was only 33 games vs 21 this year and many over the years previous.

True, but what I'm saying is that he was good for us in Jets year 1, really good for us last year after coming back from wrist surgery, and now after 21 injury plagued games (IMO), some people are wringing their hands.

Huge over reaction IMO.

 

[bennysflyers16]

Benny do you think buff for b schenn and Coburn could possibly happen? I think the jets add but not much. I think angry coburn with angry bogosian would be a force of nature.

If I was Jets I would sure ask to see how bad they want Buff. NTC would play a factor, him being longest serving Flyer and his play of late has been very improved, so doubt it happens. You are right tho, Bogo and Coburn would be a pair that easily could play 25 mins per night for next 5 years. Me as a Flyer fan also would love that pairing

I would imagine Flyers would want Buff to play with Coburn though. Ideally I would want Buff to play with Gross as he never goes past center, but he wouldn't be able to handle the minutes.

 

[Grind]

True, but what I'm saying is that he was good for us in Jets year 1, really good for us last year after coming back from wrist surgery, and now after 21 injury plagued games (IMO), some people are wringing their hands.

Huge over reaction IMO.

I applaude your optimism Huff but i just can't get behind it.

And i don't think you can call it a "huge' overreaction considering the injury your discussing is technically "huge" speculation.

I think it's fair to be critical of him. What we have is a player who played one season of good hockey (for a rookie). two seasons of bad hockey. One season of progression. 33 games of good hockey. and 22 games of bad hockey.

Is it an over reaction to say this badness is what will continue? of course, we have no way of knowing that. But It's also an overly positive reaction to say, the 60-80 good games is what's indicitive of the future and not the other 150.

it's obviously not cut and dry, but as much as saying "damnit, he's definitly a dud" is an overreaction, ignoring the fact that these 20 games increases the liklihood that that's true is a leap of faith.

I'm not saying he's toast. I'm just saying that the past 20 games have significantly dampened my enthusiasm as unless there actually was an injury (of which i think we have to operate on the assumption there isn't until something other then speculation says otherwise) it's shown a return to what, objectively, has been his career norm thus far.

I'm not writing him off by any stretch, but the past 20 games have increased his risk factor undoubtedly.

 

[truck]

True, but what I'm saying is that he was good for us in Jets year 1, really good for us last year after coming back from wrist surgery, and now after 21 injury plagued games (IMO), some people are wringing their hands.

Huge over reaction IMO.

I suppose I differ in the fact that I was meh on his year one.

He was good, but no better than a number 3 IMO. He looked like a little more than that towards the end of last year, but that appears to have disappeared again. I am worried that is where he will top out based on years worth or play, not a small sample.

 

[allan5oh]

If I was Jets I would sure ask to see how bad they want Buff. NTC would play a factor, him being longest serving Flyer and his play of late has been very improved, so doubt it happens. You are right tho, Bogo and Coburn would be a pair that easily could play 25 mins per night for next 5 years. Me as a Flyer fan also would love that pairing

I would imagine Flyers would want Buff to play with Coburn though. Ideally I would want Buff to play with Gross as he never goes past center, but he wouldn't be able to handle the minutes.

Thanks for the insight.

 

[Huffer]

I applaude your optimism Huff but i just can't get behind it.

And i don't think you can call it a "huge' overreaction considering the injury your discussing is technically "huge" speculation.

I think it's fair to be critical of him. What we have is a player who played one season of good hockey (for a rookie). two seasons of bad hockey. One season of progression. 33 games of good hockey. and 22 games of bad hockey.

Is it an over reaction to say this badness is what will continue? of course, we have no way of knowing that. But It's also an overly positive reaction to say, the 60-80 good games is what's indicitive of the future and not the other 150.

it's obviously not cut and dry, but as much as saying "damnit, he's definitly a dud" is an overreaction, ignoring the fact that these 20 games increases the liklihood that that's true is a leap of faith.

I'm not saying he's toast. I'm just saying that the past 20 games have significantly dampened my enthusiasm as unless there actually was an injury (of which i think we have to operate on the assumption there isn't until something other then speculation says otherwise) it's shown a return to what, objectively, has been his career norm thus far.

I'm not writing him off by any stretch, but the past 20 games have increased his risk factor undoubtedly.

True. If Bogo was indeed healthy for his 20 games this year, that would be concerning. But even if that were so, it's still 20 games when we've seen him play well for a season and a half. That to me is Chicken Little time. It's somewhat like the comments from our GDT, but extrapolated. In GDT's, a guy makes a mistake and it's "lol", or "player X sucks". Here now it's at a slightly larger size, but now people are making comments that Bogo sucks, or we're worried about him now, he's regressing, etc.

Seems like a big mood swings to have every 10 or 20 games.

 

[Huffer]

I suppose I differ in the fact that I was meh on his year one.

He was good, but no better than a number 3 IMO. He looked like a little more than that towards the end of last year, but that appears to have disappeared again. I am worried that is where he will top out based on years worth or play, not a small sample.

Year one he was 21 years old and you're saying he was playing as a #3. And you're saying at the end of last year (at 22 and coming off of a wrist surgery) he was looking like a #2 (a little more than #3).

That's exactly what I am saying. That's pretty good IMO for a 22 year old. Maybe it's not AP, but we didn't draft AP, so I'm comparing him to the average production of 22 year old defenseman.

The only place we differ I think, is I'm scratching my head why we would look at this last 20 game sample size, and injury or no, start to question the guy to the point that he's in trade proposals. After they signed him for 7 more years.

And if there is even a chance that he WAS injured, I just don't see how we're so quick to want to jump to ANY conclusions until we see how he can play when healthy.

 

[Grind]

True. If Bogo was indeed healthy for his 20 games this year, that would be concerning. But even if that were so, it's still 20 games when we've seen him play well for a season and a half. That to me is Chicken Little time. It's somewhat like the comments from our GDT, but extrapolated. In GDT's, a guy makes a mistake and it's "lol", or "player X sucks". Here now it's at a slightly larger size, but now people are making comments that Bogo sucks, or we're worried about him now, he's regressing, etc.

Seems like a big mood swings to have every 10 or 20 games.

I don't know how you can argue that though.....if Schiefele played 60 good games, then 20 bad ones you'd say he was regressing. At least i would. Especially if schiefele had played 50 bad games before that stretch of 60.

I also think the realistically saying "well we've watched him for 2 seasons and he's been good" si a little disingenuous. Lets not act like this is 160 games vs 20. It's more like 70-80 games versus 20 as he didn't look great at the start of the first season and was injured for much of the last shortened season.

Ontop of that, thsoe aren't the only games bogos played. He's played 300+ Nhl games. I won't artificially start his clock at when he got to winnipeg. he by all accounts played like garbage for the two seasons prior.

My point being, when you remove the Jets from the equation and look at Zach Bogosian the Player, 200 games of poor hockey, 80 games of good/improving hockey, and 20 games of poor hockey.


I get what your saying, these 20 games isn't necessarily a trend, but I think any concerns that they could be are well founded on his historical precident.

If he hadn't played 200 games of poor hockey prior to the 80 good ones, i wouldn't have any concern whatsoever. The point is, there wasa 200 game sample size of zach bogosian prior to what we started watching in 2011...and it wasn't pretty. By all accounts it looked a lot like the 20 games of this season (ok i don't think he's been THAT bad this season but you get the point)

The normal logic of the good sample is 2-3 x's the size of the bad sample (which i would normally agree with) doesn't fit, as the inverse is true. It's not the most recent data (only 20 games of it is) but i think it's fair cause for concern.

I wouldn't say the sky is falling, but i'm somewhat empathetic to those that would.

EDIT: sorry to keep on yah Huff, but i'm enjoying the debate. The other thing is we're paying him well above a 3. He's probably cropping up in proposals because at the end of the day we don't want to get stuck holding onto that grenade.

 

[Guerzy]

I don't know how you can argue that though.....if Schiefele played 60 good games, then 20 bad ones you'd say he was regressing. At least i would. Especially if schiefele had played 50 bad games before that stretch of 60.

I also think the realistically saying "well we've watched him for 2 seasons and he's been good" si a little disingenuous. Lets not act like this is 160 games vs 20. It's more like 70-80 games versus 20 as he didn't look great at the start of the first season and was injured for much of the last shortened season.

Ontop of that, thsoe aren't the only games bogos played. He's played 300+ Nhl games. I won't artificially start his clock at when he got to winnipeg. he by all accounts played like garbage for the two seasons prior.

My point being, when you remove the Jets from the equation and look at Zach Bogosian the Player, 200 games of poor hockey, 80 games of good/improving hockey, and 20 games of poor hockey.


I get what your saying, these 20 games isn't necessarily a trend, but I think any concerns that they could be are well founded on his historical precident.

If he hadn't played 200 games of poor hockey prior to the 80 good ones, i wouldn't have any concern whatsoever. The point is, there wasa 200 game sample size of zach bogosian prior to what we started watching in 2011...and it wasn't pretty. By all accounts it looked a lot like the 20 games of this season (ok i don't think he's been THAT bad this season but you get the point)

The normal logic of the good sample is 2-3 x's the size of the bad sample (which i would normally agree with) doesn't fit, as the inverse is true. It's not the most recent data (only 20 games of it is) but i think it's fair cause for concern.

I wouldn't say the sky is falling, but i'm somewhat empathetic to those that would.

EDIT: sorry to keep on yah Huff, but i'm enjoying the debate. The other thing is we're paying him well above a 3. He's probably cropping up in proposals because at the end of the day we don't want to get stuck holding onto that grenade.

I actually to tend to start the clock for Bogosian the day he arrived in Winnipeg. To be honest he was rushed and developed like a steaming pile of dog **** in Atlanta. I think it's pretty evident if Zach/Atlanta did not move to Winnipeg, god knows how his career would have transpired to this point. Truthfully, I hate thinking about it as someone who watched all of his junior hockey in the OHL. Kid was a stud at a young age, got thrown to the wolves in the NHL, chewed up and spit out by a highly incompetent NHL organization. All while sustaining and fighting a wrist injury and broken leg through those years. To put it bluntly, it completely ****ed him. When you are that young, confidence and the mental state of the game and life in general can sink you quicker than you know it, and it did just that with Zach. Getting the hell out of Atlanta was a blessing, and it showed nearly immediately. I view his time in Atlanta as a period of time not to take a single damn ounce of it in correlation to the player he was, is or can be. But, that's just me.

I'm with Huffer on this one. I've seen enough of Bogosian to believe we've got a gem here and a legit top 3, hopefully top pairing guy in the near future. Sometimes I wish we would play Bogosian 25-30 minutes a night, he can take it, and to me he is better the more he plays. I believe he's said as much, and sure many players would say that but there was a period where our defense was banged up and Zach was getting some real prime minutes and looked great in doing so. A part of me is excited for the departure of Byfuglien if only so we can hand the reigns over to Bogosian (though I understand Trouba could very well jump Bogosian, we'll see), because I think he'll run with them when given the full on opportunity to be 'the guy'. When you see the play he's demonstrated in Winnipeg alone, there is enough there for me to think he's got it, he's just got to put it all together at once, and I think he will; I surely hope he will.

I have felt the same as Huffer re; Bogosian possibly fighting an injury this season, and in my opinion/guess work it dates back to game one vs. Edmonton where he took that hit that put him down and sent him to the bench in pain. They showed him on the bench and it was clear he endured something. All I was thinking was "oh no, please don't be injured". I am personally placing my bets that he did sustain some sort of injury that game and night and it has lingered with him this season.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

EDIT: sorry to keep on yah Huff, but i'm enjoying the debate. The other thing is we're paying him well above a 3. He's probably cropping up in proposals because at the end of the day we don't want to get stuck holding onto that grenade.

That's kinda what I'm worried about. I just think he will be quickly be redundant with Trouba, as in before the end of this season. His money could be spent better elsewhere (LHD, C), nevermind the haul we can get with the return on him.

I also think Byfuglien is vastly underrated in his defensive zone. I think he has come a long ways, and is generally reliable for the most part. He doesn't make the gaffes that Bogosian doesn't at least, IMO. He is never going to be a great shutdown guy by any means, but I think he is better defensively than a Karlsson or Subban for example.

His skill set is just SO much harder to replicate, IMO. I really think Trouba will be better at everything than Bogosian if not this season, next season then for sure. I'd rather cash in on Bogosian at higher value now than Byfuglien. B. Schenn + Coburn/L. Schenn + ??? would be a great return. Bogosian will obviously be around longer, I just don't think we can afford to lose Buff right now compared to Bogosian which I think we could stomach with Trouba right now and will be better longterm.

 

[Huffer]

I don't know how you can argue that though.....if Schiefele played 60 good games, then 20 bad ones you'd say he was regressing. At least i would. Especially if schiefele had played 50 bad games before that stretch of 60.

I also think the realistically saying "well we've watched him for 2 seasons and he's been good" si a little disingenuous. Lets not act like this is 160 games vs 20. It's more like 70-80 games versus 20 as he didn't look great at the start of the first season and was injured for much of the last shortened season.

Ontop of that, thsoe aren't the only games bogos played. He's played 300+ Nhl games. I won't artificially start his clock at when he got to winnipeg. he by all accounts played like garbage for the two seasons prior.

My point being, when you remove the Jets from the equation and look at Zach Bogosian the Player, 200 games of poor hockey, 80 games of good/improving hockey, and 20 games of poor hockey.


I get what your saying, these 20 games isn't necessarily a trend, but I think any concerns that they could be are well founded on his historical precident.

If he hadn't played 200 games of poor hockey prior to the 80 good ones, i wouldn't have any concern whatsoever. The point is, there wasa 200 game sample size of zach bogosian prior to what we started watching in 2011...and it wasn't pretty. By all accounts it looked a lot like the 20 games of this season (ok i don't think he's been THAT bad this season but you get the point)

The normal logic of the good sample is 2-3 x's the size of the bad sample (which i would normally agree with) doesn't fit, as the inverse is true. It's not the most recent data (only 20 games of it is) but i think it's fair cause for concern.

I wouldn't say the sky is falling, but i'm somewhat empathetic to those that would.

EDIT: sorry to keep on yah Huff, but i'm enjoying the debate. The other thing is we're paying him well above a 3. He's probably cropping up in proposals because at the end of the day we don't want to get stuck holding onto that grenade.

True, but there is more to it than "Bogo was bad in Atlanta". There are more variables than that.

When Bogo was in Atlanta he was 18-20. He had an un-repaired wrist injury. He had a coach that was terrible at coaching him, etc.

IMO, you can't compare each of these seasons and give them equal weight. What Bogo was doing at 18 or 19 is a metric, but it shouldn't have equal value to the more recent play. And yes, his most recent play has a bad 20 game stretch. Some might not think he was injured and give him no leeway, I think he was so I do. I doubt we will ever know, so that might have to be left apart.

You're saying you are looking at some of the historical data from Bogo's 18 to 20 year old years and saying "look, here is some evidence that he has played poorly." I'm saying that it's rare for defenseman to even have those 18-20 year old years in the NHL to look back at. In this instance, Bogo is being punished in that case because he was in the NHL when 99% of other defensemen are not.

I'm not trying to make out like I'm making all kinds of excuses for him. IMO, he needs to come back healthy and play 100% better than he did for the 1st 20. I'm just saying it seems like a very quick turn around on the perception of Bogo in just 20 games.

Last year we were all pretty happy he got extended for 7 years. Maybe the money was a little high, but with the way he played last season, the idea was he would be well worth it. In the minds of many, he was playing excellent on the 2nd pair, and was looking to push to become a true top pairing guy. He was already playing 25 minutes a night. How many times was he winning survivor polls here? I mean, the guy was on the Olympic radar for pete's sake.

And now, after 20 games, all that has gone down the tubes?