Player Discussion Jeremy Swayman -VI .. *crickets*

[TD Charlie]

He signs in next 7-10 days remains engaging and happy all good

If he signs for 50 M or more and comes across upset at the shit that went on (Bruins I think got in the mud as well) the fans are going to turn on him. A bunch of people already hate Sweeney so what’s he care - but anyone flipping on Swayman is a bummer

Attitude is everything ~ be positive be grateful and avoid missing real games he will be fine

Once he gets past real games it’s a problem

The one thing that makes me hopeful he’s gone radio silence about this and sounds like is pushing for a deal

I disagree he has leverage ~ he’s an RFA passed on arbitration- no one is going to fork over 4 first round picks on an offer sheet (the main board they are barely offering a second and B prospects)

His future is at stake - the Bruins are very good and the situation is perfect for him.

To blow it up for the unknown is freaking stupid - he’s not that

I still think he gets 8ish mil per year, but I am in agreement with everything you put up here.

If he's as smart as he claims to be, then the attitude shouldn't be an issue...once there's cash in hand of course

 

[Scotto74]

He signs in next 7-10 days remains engaging and happy all good

If he signs for 50 M or more and comes across upset at the shit that went on (Bruins I think got in the mud as well) the fans are going to turn on him. A bunch of people already hate Sweeney so what’s he care - but anyone flipping on Swayman is a bummer

Attitude is everything ~ be positive be grateful and avoid missing real games he will be fine

Once he gets past real games it’s a problem

The one thing that makes me hopeful he’s gone radio silence about this and sounds like is pushing for a deal

I disagree he has leverage ~ he’s an RFA passed on arbitration- no one is going to fork over 4 first round picks on an offer sheet (the main board they are barely offering a second and B prospects)

His future is at stake - the Bruins are very good and the situation is perfect for him.

To blow it up for the unknown is freaking stupid - he’s not that

I am with you on all of this.

I hope he learned to keep a low profile and stay out of the media stuff when it comes to contract talks. doing that never ends well.

I really want him to be part of the Bruins future and hope they come to a deal and all of this is put as a small footnote come his next contract and isn't talked about between now and then.

I agree he has no leverage. 44 game high and 132 total games. i don't see any team in the league that will risk 4 1st round picks on that resume. If i am a fan of a team that did that I would lose my mind.

 

[Pia8988]

If only they could have played him more to see how he would react to a full workload. But I guess it's important to keep the goalie you already tried to dump happy. Priorities

 

[Scotto74]

If only they could have played him more to see how he would react to a full workload. But I guess it's important to keep the goalie you already tried to dump happy. Priorities

I am sure you would find a lot of teams that would sit the guy that just won the Vezina just to see if your rookie could carry the workload.

then again you probably wouldn't

 

[lopey]

Off topic but Elias Lindholm had a baby boy today. Congrats

 

[wintersej]

I'm not suggesting he trumps the team at all. I'm saying the fans here who think a player should take a team friendly deal just to stay in Boston are grossly misrepresenting the importance of a guy not from that area playing for their team. It's delusional to think they have any real ties to the area in most cases.

Now, specific to Swayman, he definitely has benefitted from playing on some very good defensive teams here, but he's also been a big reason why those teams looked so solid defensively. Mainly because under Monty's system, they give up way more odd man rushes the other way with the d constantly jumping up into the offensive zone play. So the sheer frequency with which that happens requires a good goalie. I'm not so sure it will look the same with Korpisalo and Bussi back there over Sway over the course of 82 games. In fact, I'd bet it looks significantly worse. Which makes the haggling over every last dime a little pointless. He's by far their best goalie. Stop playing games and get the guy signed already.

i don’t really think there is anyone is the “he needs to take a team friendly deal” or in the “give him 9.5AAV” camp.

It’s a more of a question of if he should take a deal in line with his previous comps (and agreeing on those comps) or if Swayman should get a deal that no one with his resume has gotten in over 10 years.

 

[Dr Quincy]

Wait, wait, wait! Jesus Christ on a bicycle @LSCII for the last time, Boston didn't take Swayman to arbitration.

He didn't say that the Bruins selected arbitration

Gross & Swayman opted for arbitration. And once there the Bruins laid out their case & Gross and Swayman laid out theirs. WTH was Sweeney supposed to do? Go easy on Swayman to avoid hurting his widdle fweeings?? It's obvious now that Gross didn't prepare Swayman for the process & it came as a shock to his client.

Oh, so you think Swayman is no better than Dan Vladar.... interesting.

And this talking point about Gross not preparing Swayman for arbitration needs to stop.
1) Yes players know that arbitration will have teams saying mean things about them in order to keep the $ down.
2) Because of that players should understand they may not like that.

All true.

But you leave out a couple other things:
3) Player are human, and having people who are supposed to be your "family"(Oh the Bruins are a family!!!!!!!) twisting things to cheap out on you after you sacrifice your body for them... hurts.
4)"Managers" in all business "need to be prepared' by someone that tells them- Pooping on your workforce might hurt morale and may end up doing more harm to the business than good.

Harvard Donnie apparently never learned how to handle people he manages. Probably got the Harvard "gentleman C" in people management classes.

Good movie, good acting, not seen much anymore.

Good writing (William Goldman I believe) even less prevalent now.

 

[Pia8988]

I am sure you would find a lot of teams that would sit the guy that just won the Vezina just to see if your rookie could carry the workload.

then again you probably wouldn't

They tried to trade him at the deadline. They already knew Ullmark was never playing for them next year. Vezina winner doesn't mean shit anymore. He was no longer in the future plans of this organization.

 

[LSCII]

i don’t really think there is anyone is the “he needs to take a team friendly deal” or in the “give him 9.5AAV” camp.

It’s a more of a question of if he should take a deal in line with his previous comps (and agreeing on those comps) or if Swayman should get a deal that no one with his resume has gotten in over 10 years.

I'd disagree with your view that people aren't expecting him to take a team friendly deal here. I've seen plenty of clownish posts to that end in this thread. I also have an issue with your assertion that he should take a deal in line with the comps, because as I've covered it a hundred times in this very string of threads, the comps are all depending on who's providing them. The team comps are low balls. The player comps are high. The onus is on the team and the player to reach an amenable deal. As this team has weirdly decided to seemingly draw a line in the sand and make a stand on this negotiation, I don't see it happening unless they capitulate. Swayman has been pretty steadfast in is desire to get a fair market value type of deal. The holdup would appear to be on the Bruins side with the really pathetic lowball offers we've seen be leaked.

 

[wintersej]

He didn't say that the Bruins selected arbitration

Oh, so you think Swayman is no better than Dan Vladar.... interesting.

And this talking point about Gross not preparing Swayman for arbitration needs to stop.
1) Yes players know that arbitration will have teams saying mean things about them in order to keep the $ down.
2) Because of that players should understand they may not like that.

All true.

But you leave out a couple other things:
3) Player are human, and having people who are supposed to be your "family"(Oh the Bruins are a family!!!!!!!) twisting things to cheap out on you after you sacrifice your body for them... hurts.
4)"Managers" in all business "need to be prepared' by someone that tells them- Pooping on your workforce might hurt morale and may end up doing more harm to the business than good.

Harvard Donnie apparently never learned how to handle people he manages. Probably got the Harvard "gentleman C" in people management classes.


Good writing (William Goldman I believe) even less prevalent now.

You harping on the Vladar comp is just eye rolling.

Clearly Boston made their case well enough to get the award down the middle.

We all know that in negotiations they were not offering 2m. Gross decided to take his client to arbitration and maybe gained a few hundred K (if anything, we have no idea) out of it.

Is your stance that anytime agents select arbitration the team should just fold? I'm genuinely confused if you think that is the right long term strategy for the Bruins or any team.

I'd disagree with your view that people aren't expecting him to take a team friendly deal. I also have an issue with your assertion that he should take a deal in line with the comps because as I've covered it a hundred times in this very string of threads, the comps are all depending on who's providing them. The team comps are low balls. The player comps are high. The onus is on the team and the player to reach an amenable deal. As this team has weirdly decided to seemingly draw a line in the sand and make a stand on this negotiation, I don't see it happening unless they capitulate. Swayman has been pretty steadfast in is desire to get a fair market value type of deal. The holdup would appear to be on the Bruins side with the really pathetic lowball offers we've seen be leaked.

So you think 8x9.5 is a fair market value deal?

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

I'd disagree with your view that people aren't expecting him to take a team friendly deal here. I've seen plenty of clownish posts to that end in this thread. I also have an issue with your assertion that he should take a deal in line with the comps, because as I've covered it a hundred times in this very string of threads, the comps are all depending on who's providing them. The team comps are low balls. The player comps are high. The onus is on the team and the player to reach an amenable deal. As this team has weirdly decided to seemingly draw a line in the sand and make a stand on this negotiation, I don't see it happening unless they capitulate. Swayman has been pretty steadfast in is desire to get a fair market value type of deal. The holdup would appear to be on the Bruins side with the really pathetic lowball offers we've seen be leaked.

Again, how are you determining what fair market is without a comp?

 

[wintersej]

On an 8 year deal we can be generous and say that a good recent comp is Sorokin at 8x8.25. Sorokin was more proven as a starter, was a pending UFA and had much higher Vezina finishes.

So it's a more than favorable comp for Swayman. It's being very generous.

If we believe 8x6.25 and 8x9.5 as the positions, are either of those particularly close to 8.25? This idea from some that its all on Sweeney and not on Gross at all just stinks of pre-conceived agendas.

 

[Beyonder]

It is interesting to ponder what the "restricted" part of RFA actually means, or what Swayman thinks it means at least. Operating as if that qualifier doesn't apply to his status isn't going to help close a deal.

 

[TD Charlie]

I'd disagree with your view that people aren't expecting him to take a team friendly deal here. I've seen plenty of clownish posts to that end in this thread. I also have an issue with your assertion that he should take a deal in line with the comps, because as I've covered it a hundred times in this very string of threads, the comps are all depending on who's providing them. The team comps are low balls. The player comps are high. The onus is on the team and the player to reach an amenable deal. As this team has weirdly decided to seemingly draw a line in the sand and make a stand on this negotiation, I don't see it happening unless they capitulate. Swayman has been pretty steadfast in is desire to get a fair market value type of deal. The holdup would appear to be on the Bruins side with the really pathetic lowball offers we've seen be leaked.

There was a post literally a week ago that pretty much said, 4 years at 6 or he can rot at home

 

[Dr Quincy]

You harping on the Vladar comp is just eye rolling.

Clearly Boston made their case well enough to get the award down the middle.

We all know that in negotiations they were not offering 2m. Gross decided to take his client to arbitration and maybe gained a few hundred K (if anything, we have no idea) out of it.

Is your stance that anytime agents select arbitration the team should just fold? I'm genuinely confused if you think that is the right long term strategy for the Bruins or any team.



So you think 8x9.5 is a fair market value deal?

Of course not. Teams should use genuine comparables that are accurate but come in on the lower end of what the player wants. I don't think that means using comps that you know are ridiculous.

I could ask you: Do you think the right long term strategy is to ghost players and agents (as multiple players have accused) or comparing a goalie with a sub 900 sv% to a goalie with a sv% around 920? I believe there is a middle ground between "just fold" and "try to weasel out of paying fair compensation".

But maybe you differ on that.

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

I’ve already provided why and it had nothing to do with playoffs and everything to do with his save perecentages every year.

Save percentages on an excellent defensive team really don't say much.

Consider, Sway was 4th in the league in save percentage in 2022-23 with a .920. But his partner Ullmark, playing for the same team, had a save percentage of .938. Last season he was 5th in the league with a .916. Ullmark was at .915.

Swayman may be a top 5 goalie. I just don't think so right now. Certainly not worth $9 mil or more based on his record.

 

[Beesfan]

I think the most sensible number is 8 years $65m for an $8.125 AAV. For Swayman, that total amount of guaranteed money is hard to turn down. For the Bruins, it is a reasonable gamble to lock up a core piece of the team in his prime years.

 

[mjhfb]

Off topic but Elias Lindholm had a baby boy today. Congrats

Boy that is news. Where was his wife when he had the baby?

 

[Donnie Shulzhoffer]

Boy that is news. Where was his wife when he had the baby?

“We’re pregnant”

 

[ON3M4N]

Swayman reportedly is considering playing this season in the khl

HockeyBuzz

 

[LSCII]

On an 8 year deal we can be generous and say that a good recent comp is Sorokin at 8x8.25. Sorokin was more proven as a starter, was a pending UFA and had much higher Vezina finishes.

So it's a more than favorable comp for Swayman. It's being very generous.

If we believe 8x6.25 and 8x9.5 as the positions, are either of those particularly close to 8.25? This idea from some that its all on Sweeney and not on Gross at all just stinks of pre-conceived agendas.

I think most reasonable people looking at this have come to the conclusion the range is $8-$8.5 mill per over 8 years. So why isn't it done? We've heard that Boston came in with a really bad lowball offer in the $6 mill range and nothing since. And the deal is still not done. So why? Do you really think that Gross is telling his client to not sign if they offer him $64-$68 million over 8 years?

 

[TD Charlie]

Save percentages on an excellent defensive team really don't say much.

Consider, Sway was 4th in the league in save percentage in 2022-23 with a .920. But his partner Ullmark, playing for the same team, had a save percentage of .938. Last season he was 5th in the league with a .916. Ullmark was at .915.

Swayman may be a top 5 goalie. I just don't think so right now. Certainly not worth $9 mil or more based on his record.

I hate this argument. What's the point of paying a goalie anything at this point? What would the criteria for a worthy goalie ever be on this team if we can't judge their play WHILE PLAYING ON THIS TEAM?

You could actually make a case for save percentage being the single most important statistic when grading goalies. Wins and losses have so much to do with the offense, goals against could just mean they are getting straight up peppered for 45 shots a game and letting in 3.

 

[LSCII]

Save percentages on an excellent defensive team really don't say much.

Consider, Sway was 4th in the league in save percentage in 2022-23 with a .920. But his partner Ullmark, playing for the same team, had a save percentage of .938. Last season he was 5th in the league with a .916. Ullmark was at .915.

Swayman may be a top 5 goalie. I just don't think so right now. Certainly not worth $9 mil or more based on his record.

Someone here said Kochetkov was a good comp, and the highest that dude ever had for SV% was last year with .911, Swayman's career average is .919. Those guys are not the same.

 

[TD Charlie]

I think most reasonable people looking at this have come to the conclusion the range is $8-$8.5 mill per over 8 years. So why isn't it done? We've heard that Boston came in with a really bad lowball offer in the $6 mill range and nothing since. And the deal is still not done. So why? Do you really think that Gross is telling his client to not sign if they offer him $64-$68 million over 8 years?

I'd be stunned if Swayman/Gross were rejecting an 8/8+ deal.

Of course I have to add that I really have no clue what has been offered or what the ask is, and how much wiggle room either side has. Just as an outsider, that seems like the sweet spot on this contract. It feels rather obvious to me, but I suck at these things.

For no particular reason other than a hunch, I have an easier time believing that the 8/8 deal has never been offered, than I do believing Swayman is holding super firm at 8/9.5

 

[BMC]

He didn't say that the Bruins selected arbitration

Oh, so you think Swayman is no better than Dan Vladar.... interesting.

And this talking point about Gross not preparing Swayman for arbitration needs to stop.
1) Yes players know that arbitration will have teams saying mean things about them in order to keep the $ down.
2) Because of that players should understand they may not like that.

All true.

But you leave out a couple other things:
3) Player are human, and having people who are supposed to be your "family"(Oh the Bruins are a family!!!!!!!) twisting things to cheap out on you after you sacrifice your body for them... hurts.
4)"Managers" in all business "need to be prepared' by someone that tells them- Pooping on your workforce might hurt morale and may end up doing more harm to the business than good.

Harvard Donnie apparently never learned how to handle people he manages. Probably got the Harvard "gentleman C" in people management classes.


Good writing (William Goldman I believe) even less prevalent now.

Swayman is clearly more talented & has greater potential than Vladar, I'm not disputing that at all. My point is that Swayman's resume at present is too thin to just hand him 8+ million a season. No RFA goalie with his stats has ever been signed to an elite goaltender level contract AFAIK. I don't think the Bruins want to set that precedent any more than Swayman wants to wreck the market for future goaltenders.

To your #3- but it's fine for Gross & Swayman to twist things as they surely did to squeeze more money out of the Bruins? Arbitration process sucks for both sides, nobody leaves happy or even content with the results.