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Jake Muzzin

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zeke said:
Muzzin gets the toughest matchups on one of the best defenses in hockey.

And people think he's someone that not only needs to be dumped but would be impossible to dump?

Leafs fans are so weird.
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All fancy stats aside, the eye test certainly shows Muzzin's game having dropped off.

He looks like he has cement in his skates, treats the puck as if it were a grenade and isn't physical like he used to be.

Personally, I think he'd be more suited as a 3rd D pairing. I also believe he'd have some trade value should Dubas decide to trade him.
 
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Maybe Dubas should call Ken Holland and work out a deal to send Muzzin there.

Oilers have a rich history of overpaying....
 
CantLoseWithMatthews said:
last year he had 42% of his ice time against elite competition, and he was actually really good in those minutes. He had a 53.7 high danger% and 69 GF%. this year he's down to 32% of his shifts, and is managing 44.8 high danger% and 30 GF%. He went from a legit top pairing guy, to someone who gets lit up against top players. I don't think he would be impossible to dump in the offseason, but I don't see much point in keeping him
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It's funny - when a Leafs player struggles for a month or two they tumble all the way from Elite to Untradeable. It's amazing.

Muzzin gets the toughest matchups on the team, and the toughest zone deployment.

Expected Goals against:

1. Sandin 2.07
2. Liljegren 2.12
3. Holl 2.33
4. Muzzin 2.35
5. Dermott 2.41
6. Brodie 2.41
7. Rielly 2.41

Did he have a rough start to the year in terms of goals against? Sure. A disastrous 5.08ga/60 in his first 7gms. But down to 2.57ga/60 since.

In fact....

First 7gms: 22.5gf% (1.46/5.08), 48.2xgf% (2.52/2.71), 86.0sv%
Ever Since: 54.4gf% (3.07/2.57), 54.4xgf% (2.70/2.27), 91.4sv%

Muzzin is a stud top matchup NHL dman. It is so hilariously Leafs fan to think he's untradeable due to a little slump.
 
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You can use advanced stats to make anyone look good.

He’s 33 in a month, forget the back nine of his career he’s on the fairway of the 15th.

He still has the size, and is competent moving the puck from the D zone and defending against the cycle, but his lack of speed is becoming a big problem.

He gets the puck in the Ozone and it’s a guaranteed unscreened floater - I mentioned this against the Blues, and then he did it again about a minute later.

He isn’t fast enough any more, and not like JT, JT is a slow but very cerebral player, Muzzin isn’t dumb but he’s not able to assess the situation and make the best play at speed anymore.

I think he’s still a 4 who could be a 3 with the right partner - maybe Timmy?

He isn’t completely replaceable, at least not yet, and he will have value.
 
zeke said:
It's funny - when a Leafs player struggles for a month or two they tumble all the way from Elite to Untradeable. It's amazing.

Muzzin gets the toughest matchups on the team, and the toughest zone deployment.

Expected Goals against:

1. Sandin 2.07
2. Liljegren 2.12
3. Holl 2.33
4. Muzzin 2.35
5. Dermott 2.41
6. Brodie 2.41
7. Rielly 2.41

Did he have a rough start to the year in terms of goals against? Sure. A disastrous 5.08ga/60 in his first 7gms. But down to 2.57ga/60 since.

In fact....

First 7gms: 22.5gf% (1.46/5.08), 48.2xgf% (2.52/2.71), 86.0sv%
Ever Since: 54.4gf% (3.07/2.57), 54.4xgf% (2.70/2.27), 91.4sv%

Muzzin is a stud top matchup NHL dman. It is so hilariously Leafs fan to think he's untradeable due to a little slump.
Click to expand...
Yup I think I'd have to agree with you on this one. The hard part is there have been far too many unforced errors off of Muzz's tape that seems to embody his entire season. Completely uncharacteristic for Muzz

I do think there has been a noticeable regression in his game this year. I don't think its been his footspeed, which seems to be the popular thought around here. Because lets be honest he's never been an overly great skater. His game has always been about making plays down low, protecting the house, and making a strong first pass. That first pass has been noticeably worse this year vs. the previous 3 seasons IMO. I think timing has a lot to do with it personally. It's hard to continue to be in rhythm when the season has stopped and started the way it has for the last month. Not to mention the rotisserie of partners he has had to deal with for decent parts of the year. I think it's understandable to have some gaps in communication and above average mistakes. His game was rounding into form before the initial stoppage, and then he's had to start all over again thereafter. We saw a bit of the same rust with JT as well to start the new year. To be expected to some degree, especially when you have to shake of that rust against the best players on the opposition night in and night out.

The reason I think his mistakes are so noticeable this year is because he's just never shown that in his game in prior years. He's been such a rock for us ever since we acquired him. Moving Muzz in a trade does absolutely nothing for our club. He is going to get his game back here shortly. He provides an element on the back end that we don't have with anyone else. I do think we will have to trade him down the line, but I suspect that was always the plan with him having a 10-team NTC as opposed to full NMC. But trading Muzz at this moment makes our team instantly worse in all likelihood. Unless we were to acquire a better version of that same style player, which seems highly unlikely to me.
 
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Voodoo Child said:
You can use advanced stats to make anyone look good.

He’s 33 in a month, forget the back nine of his career he’s on the fairway of the 15th.

He still has the size, and is competent moving the puck from the D zone and defending against the cycle, but his lack of speed is becoming a big problem.

He gets the puck in the Ozone and it’s a guaranteed unscreened floater - I mentioned this against the Blues, and then he did it again about a minute later.

He isn’t fast enough any more, and not like JT, JT is a slow but very cerebral player, Muzzin isn’t dumb but he’s not able to assess the situation and make the best play at speed anymore.

I think he’s still a 4 who could be a 3 with the right partner - maybe Timmy?

He isn’t completely replaceable, at least not yet, and he will have value.
Click to expand...
Probably imagining things but it seems(lately anyway) that when they're fishing the puck out of the net, more often than not, he's on the screen.
 
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zeke said:
It's funny - when a Leafs player struggles for a month or two they tumble all the way from Elite to Untradeable. It's amazing.

Muzzin gets the toughest matchups on the team, and the toughest zone deployment.

Expected Goals against:

1. Sandin 2.07
2. Liljegren 2.12
3. Holl 2.33
4. Muzzin 2.35
5. Dermott 2.41
6. Brodie 2.41
7. Rielly 2.41

Did he have a rough start to the year in terms of goals against? Sure. A disastrous 5.08ga/60 in his first 7gms. But down to 2.57ga/60 since.

In fact....

First 7gms: 22.5gf% (1.46/5.08), 48.2xgf% (2.52/2.71), 86.0sv%
Ever Since: 54.4gf% (3.07/2.57), 54.4xgf% (2.70/2.27), 91.4sv%

Muzzin is a stud top matchup NHL dman. It is so hilariously Leafs fan to think he's untradeable due to a little slump.
Click to expand...
I don't think anyone doubts that Muzzin is good on the PK and at defending in his own end, but his puck moving has dropped off and he's getting beat off the rush way more easily than ever before. Expected goals against doesn't really capture rush defense very effectively. Maybe I'm just being unfairly harsh on him because he was so elite last year, but it could just be the 33 year old physical defenseman with a few recent injuries is starting to actually decline. In any case, he should be fine in the playoffs when he can just interfere on zone entries assuming he can stay healthy
 
ACC1224 said:
Probably imagining things but it seems(lately anyway) that when they're fishing the puck out of the net, more often than not, he's on the screen.
Click to expand...

In the last 5 games, Brodie has been on the ice for 8 goals, Muzzin for 7 goals.

In the last 10 games, both have been on the ice for 13 goals.

That's in all situations.

This is with Muzzin getting the tougher matchups, the lesser defense partner, and posting a significantly better expected goals against mark.

And we all agree Brodie is a defensive beast.
 
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I don't think he is healthy. The drop off from last year where he had a few brain farts to this year is quite visible. Rielly looked like he had an invisible anvil on his back a couple of years ago and we never heard the whole story but then he was better. Maybe Muzz just got old but they share little health information so long as a guy is able to play at all, so I think its at least as likely he is playing wounded. When a player has a back/hip/groin thing and can't turn as well or close his gaps he starts cheating or getting frozen because he knows he could get beat and needing more time to make his decisions. Maybe some time on the 3rd pair isn't a bad idea but I don't think he is done.
 
zeke said:
It's funny - when a Leafs player struggles for a month or two they tumble all the way from Elite to Untradeable. It's amazing.

Muzzin gets the toughest matchups on the team, and the toughest zone deployment.

Expected Goals against:

1. Sandin 2.07
2. Liljegren 2.12
3. Holl 2.33
4. Muzzin 2.35
5. Dermott 2.41
6. Brodie 2.41
7. Rielly 2.41

Did he have a rough start to the year in terms of goals against? Sure. A disastrous 5.08ga/60 in his first 7gms. But down to 2.57ga/60 since.

In fact....

First 7gms: 22.5gf% (1.46/5.08), 48.2xgf% (2.52/2.71), 86.0sv%
Ever Since: 54.4gf% (3.07/2.57), 54.4xgf% (2.70/2.27), 91.4sv%

Muzzin is a stud top matchup NHL dman. It is so hilariously Leafs fan to think he's untradeable due to a little slump.
Click to expand...
Gotta agree with your first point (I agree with most of everything in this post, but the lead in specifically.)
Muzzin sucks , JT is slow, mrazek blows, Sandin can’t skate, Timmy makes mistakes Mitch is a petulant child man, Willy has no heart but here we are top 5 in the league overall.
 
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Muzzin is the only guy we have capable of his role. The problem for me isn't the drop off. The problem is that the drop off makes Holl a liability for our playoff run. Someone said it best in the off-season referring to Holl as a "conditional top 4". One of those conditions have been breached.

Get him a better partner and the drop off is no longer an issue. His role is prone to lots of mistakes. I watch a lot of other teams and their d-men make a lot of mistakes too when the opponent presses. Imagine how worse things will be if you tried to move Sandin or Dermott to no.3 (or for sake of argument promote Holl or Lil to no.3 on the depth chart). It would be an absolute disaster. Lose Muzzin and we're in trouble.
 
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zeke said:
In the last 5 games, Brodie has been on the ice for 8 goals, Muzzin for 7 goals.

In the last 10 games, both have been on the ice for 13 goals.

That's in all situations.

This is with Muzzin getting the tougher matchups, the lesser defense partner, and posting a significantly better expected goals against mark.

And we all agree Brodie is a defensive beast.
Click to expand...
Muzzin-Brodie should be the shutdown pair. With the ozone starts and 2nd tier competition Rielly should be able to carry Liljegren or Dermott
 
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Muzzy is hitting father time territory .. I have not given up hope yet he can recover but he has lost some speed for sure .. he needs support .. it happened a year earlier than I thought .. but a trade won't work folks .. he signed here to retire here .. he has a condo at Kipling/Dundas and built a beautiful home next to his family and wife's family in Woodstock area to raise his kids .. very very similar to JT situation here
 
Similar usage 2nd pairings on elite teams:

FLA Forsling - Gudas 53.3xgf%
TOR Muzzin - Holl 53.2xgf%
TBL McDonagh - Cernak 52.6xgf%
CAR Skjei - Pesce 51.2xgf%
COL Girard - Johnson 47.2xgf%
 
Don't see the issue with Muzzin. Get him a better partner and he's good for the entirety of his contract. Then his cap hit frees up and we find someone else.
 
DraftSchmaft said:
Don't see the issue with Muzzin. Get him a better partner and he's good for the entirety of his contract. Then his cap hit frees up and we find someone else.
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This is my thinking too. The guy brings it in the playoffs and turns up the physicality. He's been in a bit of a rut but he'll work his way out of it.
 
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