Tribute Jack Campbell Discussion

[Dekes For Days]

Getting outscored 15-2 over 10 periods of play is playing absolutely horribly. You disagree with that "perception" and that's fine.

I just acknowledge the fact that there's more to evaluating hockey and teams than simply looking exclusively at the contextless goal differential a team had in 10 cherry picked periods of play over a previous 4 year period. There's nothing wrong with acknowledging that a team ranked in the top-5 of the league is one of the best in the league.

For the record, that 15-2 turns into 10-2 when you remove empty net goals, and the biggest factor in that goal differential is the 0.981 vs. 0.879 goaltending differential in those periods. Which just supports my original position to not sell off our Vezina-contending #1 goalie as we approach the playoffs.

You seem to have the energy to type thousands of words but I stopped reading here.

You seem to have no issue reading or making long posts until it comes time to respond to actual on-topic questions, justify your position, or answer for the things you've done and said in a conversation you started. How convenient.

 

[ULF_55]

No he's not he's proven it, most recently against Arizona

He needs to get some games.

You think a keeper is going to be sharp after playing 4 games in 4 months?

They have to find out and/or prove he can earn his contract.

Otherwise he'll be 4 years of dead capspace starting next year.

 

[Mess]

Werent you critical of Dubas for going into the season with an unproven Campbell? Especially while Andersen was hot...

Now 29 games later hes a proven commodity that requires an overpayment to retain?

Mrazek, in comparison, is literally 1 month YOUNGER than Campbell and has 2.5x more career games played. So while Campbell has been significantly better, and due for a raise, his argument to be making significantly more than Mrazek is based on a grand total of 57 games (including playoffs last season).

Realistically, his comparables should include:
Robin Lehner 5 x 5 mill (6.1% of the cap signed at 28 years old)
Cal Petersen 3 x 5 mill (6.1% of the cap signed at 27 years old)
Elvis Merzlikins 5 x 5.4 mill (6.64% of the cap signed at 28 years old)
Linus Ullmark 4 x 5 mill (6.1% of the cap signed at 28 years old)

Roughly 4-5 years at 6-6.5% of the cap or 5-5.4 mill. Even if he gets a Vezina nomination, Lehner did as well.

How do your comparables compare statistically to Campbell in their contract years?

Regular Season	Career
Season	Team	GP	GS	TOI/G	WINS	L	T	OTL	GA	GA/G	SA	SV	SV%	SO
20-21	TOR	22	22	58:22:00	17	3	0	2	46	2.15	585	539	0.921	2
21-22	TOR	28	27	58:17:00	19	5	0	3	58	2.13	842	784	0.931	4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Campbell has started 49 games and has a record of 36 - 8 - 5 with the above sv% and GAA

I personally wouldn't take any of those goalies you listed as replacement for Campbell if you think they're all comparatively similar in skill, contribution and price point.

Jacob Markstrom a year older than Campbell just signed a 6 year $36 mil contract for $6 mil AAV and 7.4% CH%. That might be the range of what Campbell might be interested in. IMO

Markstrom posted 43 games 23- 16-4 record with .918 sv% and 2.75 GAA before signing his new deal.

 

[The Podium]

How do your comparables compare statistically to Campbell in their contract years?

Regular Season	Career
Season	Team	GP	GS	TOI/G	WINS	L	T	OTL	GA	GA/G	SA	SV	SV%	SO
20-21	TOR	22	22	58:22:00	17	3	0	2	46	2.15	585	539	0.921	2
21-22	TOR	28	27	58:17:00	19	5	0	3	58	2.13	842	784	0.931	4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Campbell has started 49 games and has a record of 36 - 8 - 5 with the above sv% and GAA

I personally wouldn't take any of those goalies you listed as replacement for Campbell if you think they're all comparatively similar in skill, contribution and price point.

Jacob Markstrom a year older than Campbell just signed a 6 year $36 mil contract for $6 mil AAV and 7.4% CH%. That might in the range of what Campbell might be interested in. IMO

3 months ago you were critical about how unproven Campbell is and how much of a gamble it is to go into this season with him as our starter.

Now you are comparing him to the high end of his comparables? Why does Markstrom make a better one than Lehner? Other than pushing your rhetoric

Lehner has a career .917 over 300+ games and signed at a year younger than Campbell one year removed from the season he was 3rd in Vezina voting.

In fact, Lehner has better career numbers and single season totals than Markstrom.

But since you asked:
Ullmark 9-6-3 .917 on the worst team in the league
Merzlikins 8-12-5 .916 on the 4th worst team in the league
Lehner 19-10-5 .920 Playoffs 9-7-0 with a .917 and 4 SO
Markstrom 23-16-4 .918 Playoffs 8-6-0 with a .919 and 1 SO

 

[Racer88]

They haven't really played a lot since he's fully recovered and you'd have to think priority is keeping Jack limber and loose. I'm confident that once the schedule condenses a tonne we will see lots of Petr.

I for one would like to see what we have in him.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I just acknowledge the fact that there's more to evaluating hockey and teams than simply looking exclusively at the contextless goal differential a team had in 10 cherry picked periods of play over a previous 4 year period. There's nothing wrong with acknowledging that a team ranked in the top-5 of the league is one of the best in the league.

For the record, that 15-2 turns into 10-2 when you remove empty net goals, and the biggest factor in that goal differential is the 0.981 vs. 0.879 goaltending differential in those periods. Which just supports my original position to not sell off our Vezina-contending #1 goalie as we approach the playoffs.

You seem to have no issue reading or making long posts until it comes time to respond to actual on-topic questions, justify your position, or answer for the things you've done and said in a conversation you started. How convenient.

Of course there's more to "evaluating teams", what we're evaluating is a teams performance in the highest pressure situations over the last 4 years which just happens to encompass 12 periods of play. You can't even acknowledge that the 4 most important games that we've played in the last 4 years have been 4 humiliating losses, why is that and how do you expect anyone to take you seriously? And LOL at a 15-2 goal differential being "contextless", 15-2 is what makes beyond dispute that these weren't just plain old run of the mill losses, they were season ending games where we just gave the games away to our opponents and losing like that like that 4 years in a row to end our season is anything but satisfactory.

It's beyond dispute, yet you're disputing it. And you sound like you're actually serious. Amazing!

 

[Nylanderthal]

I for one would like to see what we have in him.

You and me both!

 

[Dekes For Days]

Of course there's more to "evaluating teams"

Then you should have no issue with somebody referring to a team that is currently in the top 5 of the league as one of the best teams in the league.

what we're evaluating is a teams performance in the highest pressure situations over the last 4 years which just happens to encompass 12 periods of play.

Actually, nobody else was evaluating that. You just started talking about that in a Campbell thread for no reason. But now that we're talking about it...

1. There's more to evaluating how a team played in any sample than goal differential.
2. You didn't even include the 12 periods of play in your number. You used 10 of the 12 to make it look worse.
3. We faced high pressure situations outside of those 4 games. For example, as I noted in the part you supposedly "stopped reading", you excluded 3 playoff games we won in that time frame, where our season ended if we lost.

And as somebody who recently stated that "narratives based on small sample sizes are a joke", it's interesting that you're now forming narratives and suggesting we can't possibly be a top team right now, based on our goal differential in 10 periods of hockey in previous years.

And LOL at a 15-2 goal differential being "contextless"

I'd say 1/3 of the goals against being into an empty net is a pretty big piece of missing context, to start, before even getting to the 0.981 vs. 0.879 goaltending discrepancy. Looking at how impactful goaltending has been in our game 7 outcomes, I'm sure you would agree with me that it would be a mistake to sell off our Vezina-contending #1 goalie as we approach the playoffs, right? Which is what I said right from the start.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Unless the AAV is low enough. But there's no way it would low enough so yeah, I don't see 8 years happening either.



15-2 isn't "perception", it's fact. I never said that these 12 periods of "selected" hockey are:

"the best and only representation of the team we had in the past, and everything from the past is the same in the present"

Those are your words, not mine and the fact that you need to spin the hell out of everything I say just shows how deep in denial you are. Those 12 period of hockey are the ONLY representation of how our team has played in the 4 years when our entire season rides on one game. That's a simple fact and please don't waste any more time and energy twisting this around to something I haven't said.

When our season comes down to one game, our level of play has plummeted for the last 4 years straight. You can shrug it off as "small sample size" but game 7's in the playoffs carry a lot more weight than any regular season games do and when you keep getting blown out in every game 7, there is cause for concern whether you can bring yourself to admit it or not. You buddy Zeke called the game 7 loss to MTL the worst loss in franchise history and called our players "choking dogs". He's one of the biggest homers ever seen around here and even he could admit the truth in this case, why can't you do the same?



I'd do 5x5 in a heartbeat. I liked Andersen back then , he was a good goalie then (and he's having a great season this year BTW) but I like Jack today better than I liked Andersen back then. Hell if the price was 5x6 I'd probably willing to pay that as well, working around having to overpay him a little bit seems like much less of a challenge then finding someone else to pin our hopes on.

Yup agreed. Ya Andy was definitely quite a solid goalie for his first few years here then faded due to perhaps confidence and overuse. I definitely think you find a sub 1 million backup for at least next season and try to resign Jack.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Then you should have no issue with somebody referring to a team that is currently in the top 5 of the league as one of the best teams in the league.

Actually, nobody else was evaluating that. You just started talking about that in a Campbell thread for no reason. But now that we're talking about it...

1. There's more to evaluating how a team played in any sample than goal differential.
2. You didn't even include the 12 periods of play in your number. You used 10 of the 12 to make it look worse.
3. We faced high pressure situations outside of those 4 games. For example, as I noted in the part you supposedly "stopped reading", you excluded 3 playoff games we won in that time frame, where our season ended if we lost.

And as somebody who recently stated that "narratives based on small sample sizes are a joke", it's interesting that you're now forming narratives and suggesting we can't possibly be a top team right now, based on our goal differential in 10 periods of hockey in previous years.

I'd say 1/3 of the goals against being into an empty net is a pretty big piece of missing context, to start, before even getting to the 0.981 vs. 0.879 goaltending discrepancy. Looking at how impactful goaltending has been in our game 7 outcomes, I'm sure you would agree with me that it would be a mistake to sell off our Vezina-contending #1 goalie as we approach the playoffs, right? Which is what I said right from the start.

You've been repeating yourself for some time now. Do you think if you say the same thing for a 7th time, I will suddenly agree with you? You're also asking some of the same questions over and over again which you wouldn't even need to ask if you'd only read what I've already posted. I'd consider answering again if it wasn't for the fact that no matter how many times I explain myself, you seem just ignore what I say.

If you have nothing new to say then stop wasting my time, agree to disagree, move on already, sheesh.

Yup agreed. Ya Andy was definitely quite a solid goalie for his first few years here then faded due to perhaps confidence and overuse. I definitely think you find a sub 1 million backup for at least next season and try to resign Jack.

Andy was a bit of an enigma. He had his ups and downs here and his play took a big dip but now he's playing great with his new team, go figure. Goes to show how unpredictable goalies can be, will be interesting to see how he performs in the playoffs. I wasn't unhappy to see his time here come to an end but I don't think he was as bad as some people say either and one of the dumbest narratives around here was that is was his fault we lost to CLB in the playoffs. But whatever, he's gone, time to extend Jack already.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I think we haven't rushed it, so we will pay for our patience. If we would have rushed it we would have had a good deal.

And then he bombs next year like Binner and Murray and we are screwed on CAP for 6-8 years ..

 

[Gary Nylund]

And then he bombs next year like Binner and Murray and we are screwed on CAP for 6-8 years ..

Are you predicting he bombs next year or do you just not want to commit to any goalie long term?

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Are you predicting he bombs next year or do you just not want to commit to any goalie long term?

I don't believe from any teams perspective you go long on an NHL tender til he has given you 3 years of solid play in both regular season and playoff hockey .. I would much rather go very high on AAV short term and assess with tenders .. way more examples of failures then successes

 

[Gary Nylund]

I don't believe from any teams perspective you go long on an NHL tender til he has given you 3 years of solid play in both regular season and playoff hockey .. I would much rather go very high on AAV short term and assess with tenders .. way more examples of failures then successes

I understand and can respect that POV. There are always exceptions though, sometimes you have to with your gut feeling and my gut feeling since even before the playoffs started last year is that Jack is the man.

 

[Mess]

3 months ago you were critical about how unproven Campbell is and how much of a gamble it is to go into this season with him as our starter.

Now you are comparing him to the high end of his comparables? Why does Markstrom make a better one than Lehner? Other than pushing your rhetoric

Lehner has a career .917 over 300+ games and signed at a year younger than Campbell one year removed from the season he was 3rd in Vezina voting.

In fact, Lehner has better career numbers and single season totals than Markstrom.

But since you asked:
Ullmark 9-6-3 .917 on the worst team in the league
Merzlikins 8-12-5 .916 on the 4th worst team in the league
Lehner 19-10-5 .920 Playoffs 9-7-0 with a .917 and 4 SO
Markstrom 23-16-4 .918 Playoffs 8-6-0 with a .919 and 1 SO

Both things can be true..The numbers are what the numbers are .. .

Its a true fact that Campbell had never started more than 30 games in any previous season before this one, but he was coming off an impressive although debatable (All CND North QofC ) year 2020-2021 with 22 games 17-3-2 record with a 2.15 GAA and .921 sv& with 2 SO. He played on all 7 Leafs playoff games.

Small sample size, and so still unproven and once we returned to normal Division and full seasons.

Jack Campbell is proving to Toronto every game that he is a capable starting goalie (baring injury) and can carry the load as a #1 starter with another strong year as his sample size grows. 27 games 19-5-3 record with 2.13 GAA and .931 sv% with 4 SO and named to the NHL all-star team.

Do you honestly believe even Dubas was convinced Campbell was their #1 starter able to play +65 games putting up strong personal stats when he went out and signed Mrazek for 3 years at $3.8 mil and calling it a tandem 1A/1B plan?

PS. Those so call comparables you listed are tandem/backup goalies and perhaps you didn't notice but Jack Campbell's numbers make all those you listed look like sliced liver in comparison. Using your Linus Ullmark comparable 9-6-3 record .917 SV% and 2.63 GAA on the worst team in the league got 4 years at $5 mil for those numbers on a 9 win season.

Here is the true test if you believe your own posts ... Would you trade Jack Campbell today straight up for Ullmark and his 4 year $5 mil contract and think you would get equal goaltending and comfortable paying him $5 mil the same amount you believe Campbell is deserving?

 

[ToneDog]

Both things can be true..The numbers are what the numbers are .. .

Its a true fact that Campbell had never started more than 30 games in any previous season before this one, but he was coming off an impressive although debatable (All CND North QofC ) year 2020-2021 with 22 games 17-3-2 record with a 2.15 GAA and .921 sv& with 2 SO. He played on all 7 Leafs playoff games.

Small sample size, and so still unproven and once we returned to normal Division and full seasons.

Jack Campbell is proving to Toronto every game that he is a capable starting goalie (baring injury) and can carry the load as a #1 starter with another strong year as his sample size grows. 27 games 19-5-3 record with 2.13 GAA and .931 sv% with 4 SO and named to the NHL all-star team.

Do you honestly believe even Dubas was convinced Campbell was their #1 starter able to play +65 games putting up strong personal stats when he went out and signed Mrazek for 3 years at $3.8 mil and calling it a tandem 1A/1B plan?

PS. Those so call comparables you listed are tandem/backup goalies and perhaps you didn't notice but Jack Campbell's numbers make all those you listed look like sliced liver in comparison. Using your Linus Ullmark comparable 9-6-3 record .917 SV% and 2.63 GAA on the worst team in the league got 4 years at $5 mil for those numbers on a 9 win season.

Here is the true test if you believe your own posts ... Would you trade Jack Campbell today straight up for Ullmark and his 4 year $5 mil contract and think you would get equal goaltending and comfortable paying him $5 mil ?

Seriously, if you are Campbell do you negotiate with Lehner who signed two years ago as your comparable or do you use Markstron/Grubaur who signed last year ?? Dubas needs to have the stones to push back because the Campbell camp looks like they will be digging in at 6+m.

 

[The Podium]

Seriously, if you are Campbell do you negotiate with Lehner who signed two years ago as your comparable or do you use Markstron/Grubaur who signed last year ?? Dubas needs to have the stones to push back because the Campbell camp looks like they will be digging in at 6+m.

Markstrom signed the same year as Lehner

 

[Confucius]

Both things can be true..The numbers are what the numbers are .. .

Its a true fact that Campbell had never started more than 30 games in any previous season before this one, but he was coming off an impressive although debatable (All CND North QofC ) year 2020-2021 with 22 games 17-3-2 record with a 2.15 GAA and .921 sv& with 2 SO. He played on all 7 Leafs playoff games.

Small sample size, and so still unproven and once we returned to normal Division and full seasons.

Jack Campbell is proving to Toronto every game that he is a capable starting goalie (baring injury) and can carry the load as a #1 starter with another strong year as his sample size grows. 27 games 19-5-3 record with 2.13 GAA and .931 sv% with 4 SO and named to the NHL all-star team.

Do you honestly believe even Dubas was convinced Campbell was their #1 starter able to play +65 games putting up strong personal stats when he went out and signed Mrazek for 3 years at $3.8 mil and calling it a tandem 1A/1B plan?

PS. Those so call comparables you listed are tandem/backup goalies and perhaps you didn't notice but Jack Campbell's numbers make all those you listed look like sliced liver in comparison. Using your Linus Ullmark comparable 9-6-3 record .917 SV% and 2.63 GAA on the worst team in the league got 4 years at $5 mil for those numbers on a 9 win season.

Here is the true test if you believe your own posts ... Would you trade Jack Campbell today straight up for Ullmark and his 4 year $5 mil contract and think you would get equal goaltending and comfortable paying him $5 mil the same amount you believe Campbell is deserving?

The North sucks fallacy, is mainly fueled by there is no defence, which makes Soup's numbers even more spectacular.
8 NHL seasons, 114 games sv% .921, GAA 2.38

The only thing is the number of games played, maybe it because was stuck behind a cup winning goaltender there in LA. I think he was just denied an opportunity. I think he was done a favour by LA and they knew he was a solid netminder. Jack is such a nice guy and must have been a good soldier in LA that management basically sent him east so he wouldn't haunt them, as a reward.

 

[zeke]

I'm just happy that Mess finally found a topic he can enjoy posting about this season - Leafs Future Cap Hell!

 

[The Podium]

Both things can be true..The numbers are what the numbers are .. .

Its a true fact that Campbell had never started more than 30 games in any previous season before this one, but he was coming off an impressive although debatable (All CND North QofC ) year 2020-2021 with 22 games 17-3-2 record with a 2.15 GAA and .921 sv& with 2 SO. He played on all 7 Leafs playoff games.

Small sample size, and so still unproven and once we returned to normal Division and full seasons.

Jack Campbell is proving to Toronto every game that he is a capable starting goalie (baring injury) and can carry the load as a #1 starter with another strong year as his sample size grows. 27 games 19-5-3 record with 2.13 GAA and .931 sv% with 4 SO and named to the NHL all-star team.

Do you honestly believe even Dubas was convinced Campbell was their #1 starter able to play +65 games putting up strong personal stats when he went out and signed Mrazek for 3 years at $3.8 mil and calling it a tandem 1A/1B plan?

PS. Those so call comparables you listed are tandem/backup goalies and perhaps you didn't notice but Jack Campbell's numbers make all those you listed look like sliced liver in comparison. Using your Linus Ullmark comparable 9-6-3 record .917 SV% and 2.63 GAA on the worst team in the league got 4 years at $5 mil for those numbers on a 9 win season.

Here is the true test if you believe your own posts ... Would you trade Jack Campbell today straight up for Ullmark and his 4 year $5 mil contract and think you would get equal goaltending and comfortable paying him $5 mil the same amount you believe Campbell is deserving?

Linus Ullmark had a winning record on the worst team in the league and is now following it up with a strong season in Boston 13-5-0 .918 save%. No he’s not at Campbells level this season, but give Campbell 5-6 year term and that 5 mill AAV shouldn’t change. Also remember Ullmark is 1.5 years younger than Campbell currently, and signed at 2.5 years younger than Campbell will so he’s signed through the average goaltenders prime.

Now if we’re speaking of Lehner, I certainly think he’s capable of providing the same quality goaltending that Campbell is.

 

[Confucius]

And then he bombs next year like Binner and Murray and we are screwed on CAP for 6-8 years ..

If we can sign Soup to the high AAV and not have to trade one of Mathews, Nylander, JT, Marner, Reily, then sure it's only cash which MLSE ends up giving to the league anyway. If we go low but longterm all he costs us is capspace, no big deal if he does indeed bomb there is always Robidas. If he gets injured there is insurance.

 

[ToneDog]

Markstrom signed the same year as Lehner

Either way if I am Jack I am using Markstrom as my comparable and if Dubas won't meet my price I am testing the free agent market.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Do you think if you say the same thing for a 7th time, I will suddenly agree with you?

Oh, so you did see all of the questions, discussion points, and evidence of the issues/inconsistencies in your statements? You said you "stopped reading", and have avoided answering or acknowledging anything, so I wasn't sure. Just a reminder that you are the one that started this back and forth and accused me of posting "nonsense" - all because I dared refer to a top-5 team in the league as one of the best. So if you now want to "move on", that's fine, and I'll just reiterate:

1. The Leafs are one of the best teams in the league. There is no problem with somebody stating this. The goal differential that we had within 10 cherry picked periods of play in the past does not change this fact.

2. Selling off Campbell at the deadline would be a horrible move. Teams that are in the position we are do not and should not sell off their Vezina-contending #1 goalie as they approach the playoffs.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Oh, so you did see all of the questions, discussion points, and evidence of the issues/inconsistencies in your statements? You said you "stopped reading", and have avoided answering or acknowledging anything, so I wasn't sure. Just a reminder that you are the one that started this back and forth and accused me of posting "nonsense" - all because I dared refer to a top-5 team in the league as one of the best. So if you now want to "move on", that's fine, and I'll just reiterate:

1. The Leafs are one of the best teams in the league. There is no problem with somebody stating this. The goal differential that we had within 10 cherry picked periods of play in the past does not change this fact.

2. Selling off Campbell at the deadline would be a horrible move. Teams that are in the position we are do not and should not sell off their Vezina-contending #1 goalie as they approach the playoffs.

Some of your questions were a complete waste of time as you were asking things that I'd already made my views clear on. Other questions I have answered several times and you keep ignoring my answers and repeating your questions. When the first paragraph you write is already full of nonsense, I reserve the right to stop reading at that point.

Best is a relative term so if you want keep bragging about how our team is one of the best, hey good for you. IMHO a team that keeps losing in the 1st round in humiliating fashion because they seem to have no will to win in the last game for 4 years in a row ... I think it's fair to say that it's a good regular season team but to me personally, you need to stop sucking in the playoffs before you can call yourself a very good team, let alone one of the best.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Seriously, if you are Campbell do you negotiate with Lehner who signed two years ago as your comparable or do you use Markstron/Grubaur who signed last year ?? Dubas needs to have the stones to push back because the Campbell camp looks like they will be digging in at 6+m.

His camp also knows we have noone else. We wouldn't want Mrazek as our #1