Prospect Info: - Ivan Demidov (2024 5th OA): SKA St. Petersburg (KHL): Part III - IN SASHA ORLOV WE TRUST | Page 8 | HFBoards - NHL Message Board and Forum for National Hockey League

Prospect Info: Ivan Demidov (2024 5th OA): SKA St. Petersburg (KHL): Part III - IN SASHA ORLOV WE TRUST

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I don't think the habs even want to see Demidov in Montreal this spring, I think they are very content in letting his contract expires and waiting to see him at training camp next year.

Habs management has been very consistent in saying he wasn't coming this year, there was never any ambiguity in their message all over the season.

Plus, that would mean signing Demidov and burning his first ELC year... but Demidov is exactly the kind of guy you don't want to burn a ELC year on. He's expected to become very good very fast, so you want to benefit from these sweet and cheap 3 ELC years before his next contract kicks.
 
I don't think the habs even want to see Demidov in Montreal this spring, I think they are very content in letting his contract expires and waiting to see him at training camp next year.

Habs management has been very consistent in saying he wasn't coming this year, there was never any ambiguity in their message all over the season.

Plus, that would mean signing Demidov and burning his first ELC year... but Demidov is exactly the kind of guy you don't want to burn a ELC year on. He's expected to become very good very fast, so you want to benefit from these sweet and cheap 3 ELC years before his next contract kicks.
Demidov wouldn't burn his first ELC year if he played this year with the Habs.This isn't his age 20 season, his contract will slide, there isn't enough games left for the opposite to happen.
 
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I don't think the habs even want to see Demidov in Montreal this spring, I think they are very content in letting his contract expires and waiting to see him at training camp next year.

Habs management has been very consistent in saying he wasn't coming this year, there was never any ambiguity in their message all over the season.

Plus, that would mean signing Demidov and burning his first ELC year... but Demidov is exactly the kind of guy you don't want to burn a ELC year on. He's expected to become very good very fast, so you want to benefit from these sweet and cheap 3 ELC years before his next contract kicks.
The Habs brass would never, under any circumstances, say that they expected him to come over this season while he is under contract with SKA, regardless of whether they thought it was a possibility or not. That would be extremely unprofessional. So whatever they have said about it thus far does not mean much.
 
SKA is owned by people with deeper pockets than Montreal. They don't need whatever money Montreal might offer them.

And the optics of trying to send money (bribe, basically) to an oligarch-owned russian team to get a player across the pond might not be in the best interests of the Canadiens given the current political climate.

SKA's owners have also been an integral part of the recent change of KHL rules to extend players' contract until May for the express purpose of not losing talent to NHL teams before the season in the KHL is fully done, so I don't really know if they'd be all that excited over meeting us over backwards and letting us bring Demidov over before his contract is fully over.
their pockets are deep because they don't miss many opportunities like this. why not to cash in on a guy that's already gone in less than two months anyway?
 
Plus, that would mean signing Demidov and burning his first ELC year... but Demidov is exactly the kind of guy you don't want to burn a ELC year on. He's expected to become very good very fast, so you want to benefit from these sweet and cheap 3 ELC years before his next contract kicks.

It's the complete opposite.

Habs have around 51 mil going out in the next 27 months (Price, Matheson, Armia, Dvo, Anderson, Gally, Savard, Laine, contract retentions), plus 25mil more from the growing cap. That's 76mil in 26 months. Even if we keep Laine, sign Hutson to a hefty contract and include Slaf's upgrade, we'll still have way too much cap space for Demidov's one extra ELC year to be of any relevance by the time we're at Demidov's 3rd ELC year, especially since we're usually not an attraction for UFAs.

With the cap going up so much, we should rather want to burn a year on Demidov so that we can re-sign him after only a single season of play (like Hutson), so that we can get him for cheaper on the long term, especially since he'll break out quicker. That extra ELC year is chump change compared to the long term savings of signing him earlier. Demidov will also cost a lot more than 1mil on his ELC as he'll probably get all his bonuses, ramping up his cap hit to ~4.5 mil. We also might get rid of Dach and Newhook, which will be further added cap space.

In our situation, Demidov is exactly the kind of player you want to burn an ELC year on.
 
Demidov wouldn't burn his first ELC year if he played this year with the Habs.This isn't his age 20 season, his contract will slide, there isn't enough games left for the opposite to happen.

It's 11 games needed to not slide and playoffs are included, so if the Habs make the playoffs and he plays 11 games total (~5-6 in season, ~5-6 in playoffs), we can burn a year.
 
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I don't think the habs even want to see Demidov in Montreal this spring, I think they are very content in letting his contract expires and waiting to see him at training camp next year.

Habs management has been very consistent in saying he wasn't coming this year, there was never any ambiguity in their message all over the season.

Plus, that would mean signing Demidov and burning his first ELC year... but Demidov is exactly the kind of guy you don't want to burn a ELC year on. He's expected to become very good very fast, so you want to benefit from these sweet and cheap 3 ELC years before his next contract kicks.
The big issue is going to be Hutson's new deal...
 
The big issue is going to be Hutson's new deal...
How so?

If you are reasonable in what you establish for a given type of player, all will work out -- and Hughes, as an ex-agent, knows how to convey those concepts.

For example, Suzuki is the de facto leader of this team. but, despite being an elite two-way C that could one day win a Selke trophy, he is not a franchise player under a labelling of Generational, franchise, elite and star as levels of skill.

Hutson, IMO, is at a franchise player level as he definitely makes everyone around him better, except maybe for lost cases at the end of their rope like Savard with no upside remaining to tap into.

Demidov may well prove to be another such franchise level player, but that remains to be seen.

If Suzuki got 8.9% of the cap when he signed his current contract, as an elite C, Hughes will have to offer a higher percentage to franchise level players on their 2nd NHL contracts.

I don't think that 10% is enough of a bump based on the difference in talent levels, but no player -- not even generational talents -- get the 20% maximum allowed by the current CBA, because hockey is truly a team sport and can't be compared to basketball, for example, where 5 or 6 players can earn the vast majority of the Cap.

If a generational talent earns 15.72% of the Cap space for a team (McDavid's last percentage of his team's Cap ceiling at the time), how much should a franchise player earn? I'd suggest that 13% should be about right, but it would be up to Hughes to convince both Hutson and Demidov (if he also proves to be a franchise level player) that 12% is a fair expression of the compensation required on an 8-Year contract for players of their talent level.

Hutson would be entitled to a roughly 12.5M Cap hit based on a 104M Cap and, when his turn comes when the Cap has reached 113.5M, Demidov would command a 13.5M Cap hit

While fair, it would quickly contribute to not all that many players eating up a good chunk of the Cap ceiling (even at 113.5M). Demidov (13.5M), Hutson (12.5M), Suzuki (7.875M), Caufield (7.85M), Slafkovsky (7.6M) and Guhle (5.55M) would already account for 48.35% of a 113.5M Cap ceiling, with 17 other players for a maximum roster size and some leeway for the injury reserve (not the LTIR) to consider when trying to fit under the maximum cap allowed.

While an average of 3.45M for the 17 remaining players, before considering at least 1M for the IR, seems like a lot on the surface, it doesn't take into account the salary for a genuine 2C, or the 2nd NHL contract for a player with the projected skill ceiling of a Reinbacher, for example.

If you consider that Reinbacher, at 7.5M under a 113.5M total Cap , were to get a percentage of the cap equivalent to Guhle's contract (6.57%), for example, if he pans out as projected and, very conservatively speaking, 6.5M for a 2C worth speaking of, that's 14M more to amputate from the 113.5M Cap ceiling, leaving an average of under 3M per remaining player to sign (15) at 2.975M now.

By then, 2.975M (2.6% of the Cap) will be perceived as chump change for a 4th line player and not commensurate to what a 3rd pairing D is earning.

Talent creates a lot of work for Hughes who will also need to convince players like Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky and Guhle that they are worth the same amount of money, as they earned in a lesser Cap environment, when they are due to sign an extension for a third NHL contract.

That will become more difficult as mere supporting cast players start earning closer to what these players are earning in a much larger role with the team.

While it demonstrates just how important it was to sign long term contracts at reasonable cap hits with Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky and Guhle, it also illustrates how quickly the cap will become tight going forward for Hughes, even if it is scheduled to rise sharply for the next three years.
 
What if the team SKA lets Nikishi, a prospect of Hurricanes that plays in the same team as Demidov, joining Canes, and not letting Demidov doing so with Habs ? That would be quite frustrating, no ?
 
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Why? We'll have more cap space than we can spend in the next few years. His extention will be a non-issue.
Only because I suspect he will be the highest paid player, besides that Laine contract lol.
We need that Gallagher contract to come off the books, f*** that thing is ugly
 
Only because I suspect he will be the highest paid player, besides that Laine contract lol.
We need that Gallagher contract to come off the books, f*** that thing is ugly

When Hutson's new contract comes into effect, Armia, Dvo, Savard, Price, Matheson, Laine and 4.2 mil in cap retention will be off the books. That's 30 mil even if we keep Laine at the same salary, plus 10 mil of cap growth. It's a complete non-issue.
 
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