Post-Game Talk: ITS OVER- Did we make a huge mistake on Pierre-Luc Dubois Thread?

[BLONG7]

I really don't get our board's obsession with this player.

163 pages? He has a career high of 63 points.

If you combine his last 2 seasons - he is 94th across the NHL for ppg.

A very large majority of fans on here are always mocking and criticizing the Habs organization for only hiring french speaking coaches/gms, or for targeting french speaking players when possible. Yet here we are - 163 pages worth of discussion of an average player who isn't even ours, just because he expressed interest in maybe playing here one day.

True.............but let's not forget where he was born....

60 pt player............can't be stated, enough.
Still can be a good add, as long as it doesn't cost us a fortune.....

 

[BehindTheTimes]

First of all, there is no fear involved at all. I have no "fear" about anything to do with roster construction let alone "constant fear."

Secondly, I highly doubt there's even a single person who is unaware that assets are there to support the construction of the team. This isn't a revelation of any kind.

I have said - repeatedly - in this thread that my issue is with this proposed transaction centres around the notion of paying for something that will be available for free in a years time. I think it's a stupid waste of assets to pay a steep price to acquire something that you could get for free if we waited a year.

I believe the "advantage" of getting him a year earlier is minimal if not non-existent. I would much rather use the picks and prospects for Montreal's gain rather than trading them away; I would prefer the draft position we would get if we continued to develop on schedule with our own pics and projects and I think the "extra year" we could offer Dubois as a free agent is largely meaningless.

Finally, I find it utterly pointless to pretend this is a good move to make because he would be a top 3 forward on the team right now. The team is terrible and largely stripped down so being a Top 3 forward on this current iteration of the roster means very little. It's like being valedictorian of summer school.

Great post

 

[Belial]

I agree that Dubois won't sign an offersheet, unless it is for one year.

But no team will look to give him the money he'd be worth on an offersheet with the corresponding loss of a 1st-round pick+ potentially, and the fact that Dubois could leave after that one year due to reaching UFA status for '24-'25.

The only potential way to abuse the fact that Dubois is eligible for an offersheet (after season but only until July 5th if he refuses to sign his QO, before team-elected arbitration protection would apply*) would be for a team like Montreal, which would be looking to extend him after the one year deal, to sign him to a one-year offersheet.

The scenario that would most screw-over Winnipeg and won't happen, as it would be both humanly and financially dumb of Dubois to do so, would be for him to sign a one year, sub-$1.386M offersheet.

In that scenario, the Jets get nothing back for Dubois if they let him go because of compensation thresholds. But if they match the offersheet, they also now can't trade him for a year afterwards, which leads straight to UFA.

It would be truly "Get rekt Winnipeg! time", but fortunately extremely unrealistic.

Now, back to more realistic matters, as for Dubois' QO, I think he would be smart not to sign it when it inevitably is tendered by Winnipeg this Summer. And the reason is that if he refuses to sign it and gets taken to arbitration, the corresponding award by the arbitrator should be plain higher than the $6M that this QO would entitle him to.

Meaning that Dubois could theoretically make more money than the $6M of his QO next year thanks to arbitration AND still be in line for full UFA status for 2024.

It just seems like a no-brainer, smart business decision to me. And also way less disrespectful than the highly toxic, pure hyperbole "Get rekt Winnipeg!" scenario.



* More on that here:
HOW SALARY ARBITRATION WORKS IN THE NHL - Beyond the Playbook

Dubois doesn't need arbitration and stuff...

He'll get the cash once he gets the UFA status.

That's why a lot of people think it would be smarter to trade for him this summer and sign him to an extension right away instead of waiting for him to reach the UFA status.

Even if he loves MTL and everything, when you have a significant pile of cash on the table it's tough to say no.

 

[nhlfan9191]

I agree that Dubois won't sign an offersheet, unless it is for one year.

But no team will look to give him the money he'd be worth on an offersheet with the corresponding loss of a 1st-round pick+ potentially, and the fact that Dubois could leave after that one year due to reaching UFA status for '24-'25.

The only potential way to abuse the fact that Dubois is eligible for an offersheet (after season but only until July 5th if he refuses to sign his QO, before team-elected arbitration protection would apply*) would be for a team like Montreal, which would be looking to extend him after the one year deal, to sign him to a one-year offersheet.

The scenario that would most screw-over Winnipeg and won't happen, as it would be both humanly and financially dumb of Dubois to do so, would be for him to sign a one year, sub-$1.386M offersheet.

In that scenario, the Jets get nothing back for Dubois if they let him go because of compensation thresholds. But if they match the offersheet, they also now can't trade him for a year afterwards, which leads straight to UFA.

It would be truly "Get rekt Winnipeg! time", but fortunately extremely unrealistic.

Now, back to more realistic matters, as for Dubois' QO, I think he would be smart not to sign it when it inevitably is tendered by Winnipeg this Summer. And the reason is that if he refuses to sign it and gets taken to arbitration, the corresponding award by the arbitrator should be plain higher than the $6M that this QO would entitle him to.

Meaning that Dubois could theoretically make more money than the $6M of his QO next year thanks to arbitration AND still be in line for full UFA status for 2024.

It just seems like a no-brainer, smart business decision to me. And also way less disrespectful than the highly toxic, pure hyperbole "Get rekt Winnipeg!" scenario.



* More on that here:
HOW SALARY ARBITRATION WORKS IN THE NHL - Beyond the Playbook

Don’t we have to give up our first round pick unprotected in any scenario involving an oversheet? No way in hell we’re doing that. We wouldn’t do that for an extended Dubois during a rebuild. Winnipeg is the one laughing at us if we offersheet for a 1 year contract.

 

[WeThreeKings]

Don’t we have to give up our first round pick unprotected in any scenario involving an oversheet? No way in hell we’re doing that. We wouldn’t do that for an extended Dubois during a rebuild. Winnipeg is the one laughing at us if we offersheet for a 1 year contract.

The offersheet is not happening.

 

[MXD]

Don’t we have to give up our first round pick unprotected in any scenario involving an oversheet? No way in hell we’re doing that. We wouldn’t do that for an extended Dubois during a rebuild. Winnipeg is the one laughing at us if we offersheet for a 1 year contract.

That wouldn't be the Habs making the offersheet.
(And it's probably not happening anyways).

But the Jets have to weigh PLD's value with what they'd get should a team like the Avs offer PLD such an offer sheet... All the while keeing in mind they can't trade him if they match.

 

[BaseballCoach]

First of all, there is no fear involved at all. I have no "fear" about anything to do with roster construction let alone "constant fear."

Secondly, I highly doubt there's even a single person who is unaware that assets are there to support the construction of the team. This isn't a revelation of any kind.

I have said - repeatedly - in this thread that my issue is with this proposed transaction centres around the notion of paying for something that will be available for free in a years time. I think it's a stupid waste of assets to pay a steep price to acquire something that you could get for free if we waited a year.

I believe the "advantage" of getting him a year earlier is minimal if not non-existent. I would much rather use the picks and prospects for Montreal's gain rather than trading them away; I would prefer the draft position we would get if we continued to develop on schedule with our own pics and projects and I think the "extra year" we could offer Dubois as a free agent is largely meaningless.

Finally, I find it utterly pointless to pretend this is a good move to make because he would be a top 3 forward on the team right now. The team is terrible and largely stripped down so being a Top 3 forward on this current iteration of the roster means very little. It's like being valedictorian of summer school.

The assumption that we need to pay a steep price to get PLD now, and the assumption that we can get him for free in a year are BOTH incorrect in my opinion.

I'm willing to pay a not-steep price to get him this summer, if possible.

PLD was a top 3 forward on Winnipeg who is a playoff team. He should be top 3 or 4 on a rebuilt Montreal squad, and should be paid as such, but not as a 1 or 2.

I too have no fears, pretenses or delusions.

 

[MXD]

The assumption that we need to pay a steep price to get PLD now, and the assumption that we can get him for free in a year are BOTH incorrect in my opinion.

I'm willing to pay a not-steep price to get him this summer, if possible.

PLD was a top 3 forward on Winnipeg who is a playoff team. He should be top 3 or 4 on a rebuilt Montreal squad, and should be paid as such, but not as a 1 or 2.

I too have no fears, pretenses or delusions.

The problem is, there's definitely someone who'll come up with the claim that FLA 1st, Kidney and Dvorak is "Steep" because Kidney suddenly is a bluechip, yada yada. Some people will even claim Mesar is the best forward prospect this team has if they ever see him in trade proposals.

 

[Deleted member 257557]

… Implying that PLD is the "Offensive missing piece" is simply your own fabrication.

Thank you. That type of argument is a huge turn off for me, I find it really dishonest and not useful.

 

[Deleted member 257557]

It is. Getting this guy, not only you’ll pay assets but you’d have your hands tied on what acquisitions you could do in the future. He’d help the team be better now, but not good enough and we’d be in the same situation we always were.

Draft Smith, Michkov, Leonard/Benson and build organically like they said they would few months ago. No need to go too quick.

You have this picture in your mind’s eye of a theoretical, very uncertain future team that does not even exist on paper yet and you are using that picture as an argument against the habs acquiring good young players. The cynical in me would ask you what year and as of which game should I re-new my tsn account?

 

[ZUKI]

That would be disastrous.

We need a real elite offensive talent, not PLD.

and witch elite player do you think you can get for Panthers first, Dvorak and Harris ? seriously, a 2 times 27 goals seasons at 24 years old is an excellent investment.

Dubois plays in the face of the goalies , he goes to the net and in the corners and a 200’ game. He’s exactly what the Habs need to complete the more cerebral game of Suzuki

For a decade the only player going to the net is Gallagher and it’s easy to push him away. Dubois would be a great addition

 

[Destopcorner]

Don’t we have to give up our first round pick unprotected in any scenario involving an oversheet? No way in hell we’re doing that. We wouldn’t do that for an extended Dubois during a rebuild. Winnipeg is the one laughing at us if we offersheet for a 1 year contract.

How are they laughing? It means they can't trade him for the season and will loose him at the end of the season. If they don't equalize the offer, it's a very poor return for a player of his caliber.

PLD will be traded before the season for obvious reasons, Winnipeg can't afford to loose him for nothing. Can you imagine if he gets hurt before trade deadline and just leave for free on July first? Disaster.

 

[nhlfan9191]

How are they laughing? It means they can't trade him for the season and will loose him at the end of the season. If they don't equalize the offer, it's a very poor return for a player of his caliber.

PLD will be traded before the season for obvious reasons, Winnipeg can't afford to loose him for nothing. Can you imagine if he gets hurt before trade deadline and just leave for free on July first? Disaster.

They’re laughing because a lottery team is offering them a unprotected first round pick+ for a headache player on an expiring contract in that scenario. We also aren’t even guaranteed an extension if we offersheet him for one year. Do you really think they’re matching any 1 year OS we make that involves our first round pick next year?

 

[expy]

I really don't get our board's obsession with this player.

163 pages? He has a career high of 63 points.

If you combine his last 2 seasons - he is 94th across the NHL for ppg.

A very large majority of fans on here are always mocking and criticizing the Habs organization for only hiring french speaking coaches/gms, or for targeting french speaking players when possible. Yet here we are - 163 pages worth of discussion of an average player who isn't even ours, just because he expressed interest in maybe playing here one day.

We aren't obsessed, 64% of us wouldn't give up any assets to get him.

 

[SlafySZN]

You have this picture in your mind’s eye of a theoretical, very uncertain future team that does not even exist on paper yet and you are using that picture as an argument against the habs acquiring good young players. The cynical in me would ask you what year and as of which game should I re-new my tsn account?

It’s kinda the point, we don’t know how the team is gonna be in the next few years, why tying yourself up to a big long-term contract to a player outside the organization.

And i have never said i was against them acquiring young players.

 

[Mudz]

I agree that Dubois won't sign an offersheet, unless it is for one year.

But no team will look to give him the money he'd be worth on an offersheet with the corresponding loss of a 1st-round pick+ potentially, and the fact that Dubois could leave after that one year due to reaching UFA status for '24-'25.

The only potential way to abuse the fact that Dubois is eligible for an offersheet (after season but only until July 5th if he refuses to sign his QO, before team-elected arbitration protection would apply*) would be for a team like Montreal, which would be looking to extend him after the one year deal, to sign him to a one-year offersheet.

The scenario that would most screw-over Winnipeg and won't happen, as it would be both humanly and financially dumb of Dubois to do so, would be for him to sign a one year, sub-$1.386M offersheet.

In that scenario, the Jets get nothing back for Dubois if they let him go because of compensation thresholds. But if they match the offersheet, they also now can't trade him for a year afterwards, which leads straight to UFA.

It would be truly "Get rekt Winnipeg! time", but fortunately extremely unrealistic.

Now, back to more realistic matters, as for Dubois' QO, I think he would be smart not to sign it when it inevitably is tendered by Winnipeg this Summer. And the reason is that if he refuses to sign it and gets taken to arbitration, the corresponding award by the arbitrator should be plain higher than the $6M that this QO would entitle him to.

Meaning that Dubois could theoretically make more money than the $6M of his QO next year thanks to arbitration AND still be in line for full UFA status for 2024.

It just seems like a no-brainer, smart business decision to me. And also way less disrespectful than the highly toxic, pure hyperbole "Get rekt Winnipeg!" scenario.



* More on that here:
HOW SALARY ARBITRATION WORKS IN THE NHL - Beyond the Playbook

Good post but only thing I'll add is Winnipeg cap situation and why it makes sense for Dubois to ask for arbitration.

I only did a quick cap friendly analysis of it, but Winnipeg is pretty much up to the cap. With Dubois at 6M. With a bunch of RFAs. Not sure which one will be kept or let go, but they are not in a favourable situation.

If it goes to arbitration, Dubois should get around 8M, which they seems to be unable to afford right now.

So it's not a lot of leverage but it's something.

 

[Deleted member 257557]

It’s kinda the point, we don’t know how the team is gonna be in the next few years, why tying yourself up to a big long-term contract to a player outside the organization.

And i have never said i was against them acquiring young players.

Because habs need to swap most of their team out with like 15 better-than-most players and a few stars. Acquiring pld does not impede that at all. It’s not like they have only 6 mil under the cap for a late playoff push they spend on an over-the hill vet who takes advantage and negotiates 3years type of situation. They need to add a lot good pieces, real ones not (only) potential ones.

 

[Destopcorner]

They’re laughing because a lottery team is offering them a unprotected first round pick+ for a headache player on an expiring contract in that scenario. We also aren’t even guaranteed an extension if we offersheet him for one year. Do you really think they’re matching any 1 year OS we make that involves our first round pick next year?

What are the odds this unprotected first becomes better than PLD ? I'll say it, next to none. If you have a read on PLD scouting report back in the days, pretty sure he'd go top 5 this year. I'd get him instead of Smith just for the size factor and 200 foot game...

Well developed 6f4 centers who score 60 points year in year out are worth much more than a first, especially at 25yo. I dont care about next year first who'll be ready when Suzy turns 30.

 

[Canadienna]

I still want to trade for him if possible, but it feels like the Jets are good with playing chicken. We know Habs and Jets have at least talked.

If the Jets are stuck on Dach, which it feels like to me, then I understand not trading for Dubois. It's one of those situations where it's hard to know what the ask is because it's pretty dependent on what Dubois plans to do.

The tanking in value of the FLA 1st might have influenced things as well.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

I still want to trade for him if possible, but it feels like the Jets are good with playing chicken. We know Habs and Jets have at least talked.

If the Jets are stuck on Dach, which it feels like to me, then I understand not trading for Dubois. It's one of those situations where it's hard to know what the ask is because it's pretty dependent on what Dubois plans to do.

The tanking in value of the FLA 1st might have influenced things as well.

The jets won't get offered a Dach-level asset by any team in the league.

 

[The Great Weal]

You can never have enough of these big bois that can play hockey.

I'd take PLD on this team any day of the week.

PLD is a good player, but we are realistically 2-3 years away from competing so why are we adding good but not great players to ruin our draft position? If he came for free that'd be a different conversation.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

@tazsub3 Too bad the Panthers went on a crazy run as I think a mid-first-rounder + a decent prospect would've been enough to get Dubois during the summer.

Now that pick is so late that they would probably get more at the TDL...

Paying a first rounder for ONE year of PLD when you can simply sign him asset-free next year, is completely berserk, especially since even if the team tries to do better next year, they sure as shit won't be making the playoffs. Get him for a lesser package or else wait a year.

No wonder you liked Bergevin so much.

 

[MXD]

What are the odds this unprotected first becomes better than PLD ? I'll say it, next to none. If you have a read on PLD scouting report back in the days, pretty sure he'd go top 5 this year. I'd get him instead of Smith just for the size factor and 200 foot game...

Well developed 6f4 centers who score 60 points year in year out are worth much more than a first, especially at 25yo. I dont care about next year first who'll be ready when Suzy turns 30.

Probably higher than next to none, but you do have a point about that 5th OA being likelier to be a worse player than PLD all things considered.

Still, the OS threat is just that : a threat. And we aren't a threatening team, at least I hope so. Colorado is the very obvious one. They really need him for only one year : if the Jets match, they can't trade him.

6.4M$ for a 1st and a 3rd. For the AVS 1st and 3rd, more accurately, Which is LESS than what a player like him would go at the TDL. And LESS than what they paid for Lehkonen.

 

[Destopcorner]

Probably higher than next to none, but you do have a point about that 5th OA being likelier to be a worse player than PLD all things considered.

Still, the OS threat is just that : a threat. And we aren't a threatening team, at least I hope so. Colorado is the very obvious one. They really need him for only one year : if the Jets match, they can't trade him.

6.4M$ for a 1st and a 3rd. For the AVS 1st and 3rd, more accurately, Which is LESS than what a player like him would go at the TDL. And LESS than what they paid for Lehkonen.

Ho I know it's just a threat because there is no chance Winnipeg equals the offer and loose him for nothing. That is the worst scenario for them which is why they won't even let it go to the point where it's possible: He's gone at the draft, 100%.

The risk is real PLD signs anywhere for one year at 6.4, he wants out and doesn't care that much about money as shown last year when he accepted the QO even tho he was worth at least a million more. Who's the last guy to do this?

People need to realize PLD want to be here for real. He's not just using us to leverage a bidding war for couple more millions on 8 years or else why did he do that last year? It was the easiest money ever and he deserved it.

 

[Rapala]

Paying a first rounder for ONE year of PLD when you can simply sign him asset-free next year, is completely berserk, especially since even if the team tries to do better next year, they sure as shit won't be making the playoffs. Get him for a lesser package or else wait a year.

No wonder you liked Bergevin so much.

We picked Owen Beck 32nd last draft and people are willing to give away our Florida pick as part of a package deal for Dubois in a much stronger draft.
I never understood how this could even be remotely beneficial to a rebuilding team. Let him come the following year if that is what he really wants. I'd like to see a full year of a healthy Suzuki/Caufield because it will have a direct affect on how much we would be willing to shell out for Dubois.