Its not early anymore - First Third Review

[EspenK]

I thought it would be interesting to think about how the Jackets have done so far now that the season is 1/3 finished.

Overall I think most would agree it has been disappointing and below most people's expectations based on last year's finish.

Here's what I see:

Injuries have played a part in that they haven't allowed the team to jell. Problem is that injuries started almost immediately and have continued with now 5 or 6 guys on IR. However, when injuries were limited to one or two guys team still didn't look real good.

The team has lost 6 times by 3 or more goals; won the same number. This to me was surprising.

We have been shut out 3 times and shut out one team.

Biggest problem that I see is that the team defense has been terrible, starting with a lack of forechecking forwards to maintain possession in our own end and progressing through the defensemen and as a result Bob has struggled.

In addition to Bob's struggles due to the above he has let in way too many soft goals.

To me our offensive system (if we have one) needs to be revised.
Guys seem to always be in the wrong spot and it just seems discombobulated to me.

Power play is 9th in the league. penalty kill is 21st Coming in I would have thought the reverse would have been much more likely.

We have only beaten 1 current playoff team - Toronto - and we have beaten them twice by a combined score of 11-2.

Bob has been a problem. His 2.81 GAA & .906 SV % don't cut it. Keeps this up and next year's contract negotiations will be interesting.

JJ is a -13. But we can't trade him because he logs big minutes and plays against the other guys top players. Maybe he shouldn't?

Consistency, what consistency? Other than losing to the better teams and winning most of the games against the worst teams there is none.

As Brass16 is always quick to point out we are still in the playoff hunt, due mostly in my opinion, to the slow starts of the Rangers, Philly and Washington. And as I am always quick to respond, we are the 6th worst team, point wise, in the league. I hope we don't squeak in but would welcome a strong finish where we actually were playing well enough to have a chance to win a series.

Most Surprising Performance (on the upside) - Joey. No question. He keeps this up he will be our #1 center for a while.

Most Surprising Performance (on the downside)

Bob. High Honorable mention to JJ & Anisimov (although Arty seems to be awakening). Honorable mention to Cam- not doing bad but I think we all expected more. Maybe this is on us rather then him?

Question marks-

When will Horton be ready to go and what impact will he have?
When Gabby returns will he light it up and be re-signed or is he out the door at the deadline?
Can Bob re-establish some semblance of last year's performance.

All in all a disappointing season thus far. If Horton-Joey-Gabby-Foligno-Dubi-Cam form two solid top lines, team defense improves and Bob wakes up maybe we can mount a second half rally.

Thoughts?

Click to read more...

 

[major major]

Agreed. I don't have much to add. We're not good, but because of the weak division we still have a chance if we can get healthy and get Bob going.

 

[Crede777]

Disagree about Bob being a problem. As long as his SV% is above .900 and his GAA is less than 3, he's doing fine.

You can't rely on your goalie to carry your team like Bob did last season.

Is he great? No, but that doesn't mean he is a problem. To me, problem guys are Tyutin, Gaborik, and Anisimov.

He is getting hung out to dry way too often and the team isn't controlling the puck nearly well enough. When you keep getting outshot and have fewer chances than the other team, you're going to lose. The team needs to figure out how to control the puck against good teams and needs to work on their passing and shooting.

Last night we had 2 shots in the first period. That is the problem, not the goaltending.

 

[Samkow]

Disagree about Bob being a problem. As long as his SV% is above .900 and his GAA is less than 3, he's doing fine.

Those benchmarks haven't even been average in almost a decade.

RE OP: What's wrong with this team?

GF, 2013: 2.5
GF, 2013-14: 2.48

GA, 2013: 2.48
GA, 2013-14: 2.96

The defense (and to a greater extent), the goaltending have taken a huge step back. The offense isn't good enough to compensate. A combination that'll lead to a lot of losses. I'm not sure Horton/Dubinsky/Gaborik's return will be enough if Bob/Tyutin/Johnson keep underachieving.

 

[Dr. Fire]

Those benchmarks haven't even been average in almost a decade.

RE OP: What's wrong with this team?

GF, 2013: 2.5
GF, 2013-14: 2.48

GA, 2013: 2.48
GA, 2013-14: 2.96

The defense (and to a greater extent), the goaltending have taken a huge step back.

That, and inconsistency, and injuries. Those three things need to change.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Disagree about Bob being a problem. As long as his SV% is above .900 and his GAA is less than 3, he's doing fine.

You can't rely on your goalie to carry your team like Bob did last season.

Is he great? No, but that doesn't mean he is a problem. To me, problem guys are Tyutin, Gaborik, and Anisimov.

He is getting hung out to dry way too often and the team isn't controlling the puck nearly well enough. When you keep getting outshot and have fewer chances than the other team, you're going to lose. The team needs to figure out how to control the puck against good teams and needs to work on their passing and shooting.

Last night we had 2 shots in the first period. That is the problem, not the goaltending.

Even a mediocre goalie in the NHL today should be .915 sv % and 2.5 GAA. Those are pretty much the median stats in the the league right now for goalies who met minimum requirements to be counted.

Additionally, last season there was 1 qualifying goalie who had a save percentage lower than .900. Jaroslav Halak had .889 in 16 games. Ilya Bryzgalov had a save % of .900. There were only 5 qualifying goalies last season w/ a GAA over 3.00. None of those teams even sniffed the playoffs.

 

[cbjfaninmo]

This young team has really missed veteran leadership so far.

 

[EspenK]

This young team has really missed veteran leadership so far.

Not singling you out, but I think this argument is a bit overstated. Dubi, JJ, Wiz, Tyutin, Umberger, Foligno, Gabby, Boll, Mackenzie are all veterans and at least some of them should provide leadership. Everyone is entitled to their opinion and mine is that this is a bit of a cop out.

 

[Sore Loser]

Thoughts

It's hard to maintain consistency with an inconsistent lineup. So far, the Jackets have used 18 different forwards; and have been without (arguably) their three best forwards in Dubinsky, Gaborik, and Horton for decent to long stretches of time. Missing Matt Calvert played a bigger impact than people might assume ... add to that playing without Nick Foligno, Boone Jenner, Derek MacKenzie, and Jared Boll for stretches of time, and you really start to see the man games add up. Offense was going to be a huge question for the Jackets this year; so I think it's no surprise that we've struggled with some of the guys we've been without. Consistency breeds success ... it's one thing to sub in a 13th forward or 7th defenseman from time to time; it's another thing to be using guys that have no business in the NHL (Collins) or guys who aren't ready (Chaput).

I'll argue that our forwards haven't been that bad. Johansen has been lights out, really playing up to the capabilities that saw him drafted 4th overall. Dubinsky has been fine; is on pace for a 50ish point season. Umberger's pace puts him around 40 points; as does Foligno. That's not bad, and would give us a viable second line ... the problem is that they've been leaned upon to be the first line guys for too long.

The defense has certainly been a letdown. There's too much money being spent back there for what we're getting. What this team really needs is a leader on defense; someone that can match up against the other team's top lines and provide a steadying presence. Last year, they saw that in tandem with Jack Johnson and Dalton Prout. This year, they haven't gotten it, and we've seen the result. I think the guys we have are fine, but I think several of them are playing out of their element. We all know how hard it is to get that type of defenseman, so maybe we'll just have to wait for the development of Ryan Murray. Of note: out of 8 defensemen to see time with the Jackets, only the youngest three are on the positive side of the +/- scale (Murray, Erixon, Savard) ... that HAS to change.

All in all, I don't think we're in bad shape at all. Definitely need to get healthy to get a feel for where we really are in our development. At which point, it will be time to decide if we're going to keep Marian Gaborik for another 2-3 years, or try to get some assets for him at the deadline. Really, that's the only major pressing issue I see at hand for this franchise ... other than that, I think it's just a situation where we have to wait it out and see what the kids bring next year.

 

[Jyrki]

I'm not TOO worried about Bob. Part of the reason why his SV% isn't there is due to a low PK SV%. Other goalies who also seem to be struggling like Smith, Hiller and Ward are down there in that department too. We do have a good PK unit, so his numbers should improve a bit.

What does concern me is that his ESV% is way down from last year - .941 vs .918 - but when you consider last season wasn't a full one, that's not too surprising. Bob's "true" ES save percentage should be somewhere in between, and combining with his PK SV% bouncing back we should hopefully see him clock in .917-.920 in all situations. With the additional help coming off IR, we do have a decent prospect of catching up in the playoffs race.

 

[Crede777]

Even a mediocre goalie in the NHL today should be .915 sv % and 2.5 GAA. Those are pretty much the median stats in the the league right now for goalies who met minimum requirements to be counted.

Additionally, last season there was 1 qualifying goalie who had a save percentage lower than .900. Jaroslav Halak had .889 in 16 games. Ilya Bryzgalov had a save % of .900. There were only 5 qualifying goalies last season w/ a GAA over 3.00. None of those teams even sniffed the playoffs.

Right but like I argued last year with Bobrovsky's stats being in major part due to the play of the team in front of him, the same goes for this season.

I think Bob, in a vacuum, is a young goalie who is average or above average at this point in his NHL career. That's pretty good, but he's not elite yet. That's also evidenced by his contract where he was only given a 2-year extension. He's young and he still has a lot to prove.

That said, behind what has been a decidedly crappy team of skaters, he has been average to below-average. A bad goalie, in my opinion, would look like Mason did his past few years here. He'd be in the .885 SV% and have a GAA above 3.

I'm not going to argue that Bob can't be better. He can be, but I think the problems of this team focus mostly on its skaters, not its goalie. Protect the puck better, carry the puck better, and they have to figure out how to average more than 22 shots a game. In games where the team is in it (every other game apparently), our goaltending has been pretty good. When we're out of it, the goaltending suffers heavily.

 

[jackets4life]

Agree with everything you said in your post. Quite honestly when it comes to the biggest disappointment of the season, it has to be Johnson's -13 rating. I know he's always been a minus player and many of you here think that the +/- stat is overrated, but come on man, JJ is ranked 752 out of 755 listed players on NHL.com in terms of plus minus. He's got only 5 points to boot. At the very least, he's played his way out of any consideration for the Olympics. Makes me mad that he hasn't sat for a game yet. He's just not cutting it.

 

[SuperGenius]

Agree with everything you said in your post. Quite honestly when it comes to the biggest disappointment of the season, it has to be Johnson's -13 rating. I know he's always been a minus player and many of you here think that the +/- stat is overrated, but come on man, JJ is ranked 752 out of 755 listed players on NHL.com in terms of plus minus. He's got only 5 points to boot. At the very least, he's played his way out of any consideration for the Olympics. Makes me mad that he hasn't sat for a game yet. He's just not cutting it.

And who is going to log the same sort of responsible, tough minutes?

Sitting someone like Jack isn't going to help anything. I understand that it's a fan's desire to 'punish' a player like this, but it doesn't really work the way you think it does. If you did a average to poor job at work, or didn't produce over a month, would you benefit from a week off? Would you really 'sit there and think about what you've done?' Doubt it.

Veterans get leeway because they have to turn around their game themselves, and they usually do. Given Johnson's lack of production (12 games without a point), it's no wonder he's -13, and frankly, that's not nearly as bad as I thought it might be given he only has 3 even strength points. Add in going against the other team's best lines and the fact that the CBJ collectively cannot score, it really is more of a testament to him playing at least average over poor. If he was producing at his usual rate, he would be a plus player and no one would be calling for him to sit. JMFJ is the least of the CBJ's problems, IMO.

 

[Sore Loser]

And who is going to log the same sort of responsible, tough minutes?

Sitting someone like Jack isn't going to help anything. I understand that it's a fan's desire to 'punish' a player like this, but it doesn't really work the way you think it does. If you did a average to poor job at work, or didn't produce over a month, would you benefit from a week off? Would you really 'sit there and think about what you've done?' Doubt it.

Veterans get leeway because they have to turn around their game themselves, and they usually do. Given Johnson's lack of production (12 games without a point), it's no wonder he's -13, and frankly, that's not nearly as bad as I thought it might be given he only has 3 even strength points. Add in going against the other team's best lines and the fact that the CBJ collectively cannot score, it really is more of a testament to him playing at least average over poor. If he was producing at his usual rate, he would be a plus player and no one would be calling for him to sit. JMFJ is the least of the CBJ's problems, IMO.

I agree.

 

[EspenK]

And who is going to log the same sort of responsible, tough minutes?

Sitting someone like Jack isn't going to help anything. I understand that it's a fan's desire to 'punish' a player like this, but it doesn't really work the way you think it does. If you did a average to poor job at work, or didn't produce over a month, would you benefit from a week off? Would you really 'sit there and think about what you've done?' Doubt it.

Veterans get leeway because they have to turn around their game themselves, and they usually do. Given Johnson's lack of production (12 games without a point), it's no wonder he's -13, and frankly, that's not nearly as bad as I thought it might be given he only has 3 even strength points. Add in going against the other team's best lines and the fact that the CBJ collectively cannot score, it really is more of a testament to him playing at least average over poor. If he was producing at his usual rate, he would be a plus player and no one would be calling for him to sit. JMFJ is the least of the CBJ's problems, IMO.

No kidding. But he isn't so we complain.

 

[major major]

No kidding. But he isn't so we complain.

I'm also puzzled by the phrasing which seems to look like "If he were a good player, he wouldn't be so bad, so why are you complaining?" Granted, most of you think JJ is good. I seem to be the main one wanting to try different roles for him.

I've long felt that JJ is not our best bet for the shutdown pair. Prout and Tyutin are both better suited for it. And we have several better options for producing offence, though it might look different if JJ is given easier minutes (this has to be contingent on some mental adjustment of some sort, though, hard minutes can't explain just how bad his drought is.) So then his role is really called into question.

 

[SuperGenius]

No kidding. But he isn't so we complain.

I'm also puzzled by the phrasing which seems to look like "If he were a good player, he wouldn't be so bad, so why are you complaining?" Granted, most of you think JJ is good. I seem to be the main one wanting to try different roles for him.

Let me explain this for you. The poster I was responding to mentioned plus/minus and believed JJ should have been sat by now. The implication being that he isn't playing well and that somehow being sat for some unnamed player is a good idea.

The implication in that post, and others, is that JJ sucks at defense (as well as the idea that plus/minus is a valid stat by which you can easily judge performance). I don't really think that's the case with either. With him, his plus/minus it's more of an offensive issue. I would imagine the lack of offense comes at the expense of a number of things: lack of forecheck against top lines, puck possession and a need for him to play a more defensive role than he may usually have been asked to do. Throw in a little slump and it can pile up on you a little.

There may be a day when Prout is capable of the kind of role that Johnson is being asked to play, but I don't think that time is now. Richards will most usually go with the more responsible player or the veteran for specific roles, and I think that's what is happening here. I'm not sure Prout is ready for top line minutes against the opponent's best forwards. IMO, Of all the options the CBJ have, none are really great for a "shutdown" pair. JJ is the best of the poor options for half that pair, IMO.

I'm not saying Johnson couldn't be better - they all can, but I don't believe for one second that he should have been "sat". Factor in the injuries and the idea becomes even worse.

 

[major major]

Looking at the season thus far I tend to think of it in four stages. Our problems, and our strengths, have been different in each stage.

Stage 1: October 4th through 19th
We went 2-5-0.

Discombobulation and defensive miscues. Bob managed to disappoint us after last years play, but statistically he was still very good in this stretch, with a .929 save percentage. And Gaborik was on a tear. I personally feel like we improved gradually through this period, slowly re-finding that effort-heavy game from last year. Though most didn't feel that way if you read the GDT's.

Stage 2: Oct. 20th through Nov. 1st
3-2-0.

This was our best stretch. We had found our game, and the team efforts were strong. The physical presence here was notable, lots of hitting and a strong forecheck. Wiz was suddenly a very good defenceman. We outplayed the Penguins in every way except the goaltending, and lost.

Stage 3: Nov. 2nd through 15th.
1-3-3.

We didn't show up for game 2 versus the Penguins. Outside of Dubinsky the offence is cold. Gaborik and Anisimov are ice cold. We claw back to take three straight to extra time and lose all of them.

Stage 4: Nov. 17th through present.
4-4-0.

Injuries and lopsided games. Only one of these games, the OT win against Calgary, was even close. The rest have been very one-sided. Generally though, the ice has been tilting against the Jackets, with too much of the play in our end. The forecheck hasn't been very strong, and opposition hasn't had much trouble gaining the zone on us. Bob has been poor (save percentage close to .900). Johansen has been beasting and Calvert has returned with a vengeance, but we're without arguably three of our four top scorers, and it shows.

 

[major major]

Let me explain this for you. The poster I was responding to mentioned plus/minus and believed JJ should have been sat by now. The implication being that he isn't playing well and that somehow being sat for some unnamed player is a good idea.

The implication in that post, and others, is that JJ sucks at defense (as well as the idea that plus/minus is a valid stat by which you can easily judge performance). I don't really think that's the case with either. With him, his plus/minus it's more of an offensive issue. I would imagine the lack of offense comes at the expense of a number of things: lack of forecheck against top lines, puck possession and a need for him to play a more defensive role than he may usually have been asked to do. Throw in a little slump and it can pile up on you a little.

There may be a day when Prout is capable of the kind of role that Johnson is being asked to play, but I don't think that time is now. Richards will most usually go with the more responsible player or the veteran for specific roles, and I think that's what is happening here. I'm not sure Prout is ready for top line minutes against the opponent's best forwards. IMO, Of all the options the CBJ have, none are really great for a "shutdown" pair. JJ is the best of the poor options for half that pair, IMO.

I'm not saying Johnson couldn't be better - they all can, but I don't believe for one second that he should have been "sat". Factor in the injuries and the idea becomes even worse.

1) I'm not discounting other factors in JJ's stats, I'm saying it all has to go wrong to get numbers that bad, including his own contribution and other factors.

2) Plus/Minus is informative when you can control for the type of ice-time, or when one player is far ahead or behind everyone else.

3) And I have to wonder if there is an age bias at work when comparing JJ and Prout. I just can't look at those two and think that one is "more responsible" than the other. I've felt that way about our team generally for a while now, actually. Savard, Murray, Erixon, Prout — don't seem to be less responsible than JJ, Wiz, Nikitin and Tyutin.. Ordinarily young defenceman make you scared to watch them, but I rarely feel that way with these guys.

4) We don't have an injury problem on defence as long as Erixon is in the minors.

 

[blahblah]

Under 3 GAA and above .900 save pct? Can someone say ultra low bar? Why don't we just pay 2 million for a couple of backups? They can give us that. We are paying for a Vezina goalie, not some bottom third goal tender. Bob signed that damn contract, which reduced our flexibility. That ******* better start performing. He didn't earn that contract.

I see another "the problem". There are a lot of problems with this team right now. Injuries can excuse some of it, but certainly not all.

I don't have much to say about the opening post. Kind of random "facts" with some thoughts mixed in. Sort of a review, sort of not.

As I said before, I figured we would tread water. This win one/lose one is kind of fitting that. I thought we would be closer to .500 now, but if the other team does this strange thing called "checking" we are kind of done.

We seem to have a lot of offensive zone time that doesn't generate a chance. That is partly on the players, but the coaching staff needs to adjust.

Grades

Top six forwards - C- (Johansen and Dubinsky keep it above a D along with Foligno, for now)
Bottom Six forwards - B-
Top pairing D
Murray - B+
Rest - C-
Penalty kill - D+ (Not much to like here other than some shorties)
PP - B (Tempted to go A because they are exceeding expectations, but 5-3 is aweful)
Bob - F (Simply terrible for a Vezina winner)
Coaching staff - D
Front office - C- (They are still feeling out this team, so that saves them for now.)

Team +3/-3

+3 - Johansen, Murray, Foligno
-3 - Bob, JJ, Atkinson

Last thought(s). This team is not hungry right now. Sure they play hard, but there is little desperation. Too many correctable mistakes and/or mental mistakes. Injuries to key players, on top of of the above, combined with bottom quarter goal tending, along with average coaching at best? I'm actually amazed we have as won as often as we have.

 

[blahblah]

The implication in that post, and others, is that JJ sucks at defense (as well as the idea that plus/minus is a valid stat by which you can easily judge performance). I don't really think that's the case with either.

JJ has been a disappointment this season. Having said that, it hasn't risen to the level of a benching. For some odd reason there is some obsession with benching players. I've noticed that fans seems to want to seek retribution when their team is losing. They want to punish someone. Notice I am very upset with Bob but I'm not saying to start going to McBackup?

I've said it before and I'll say it again, if a player isn't performing you start with ice time. Their issue is with Richards(on). Having said that, JJ's ice time is down this season. There is actually little difference between the top two pairings.

If things get bad with JJ, then he would make an interesting shakeup trade. I think it's very premature for that, but he would make quite the candidate. You could actually get something in return.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Sure they play hard, but there is little desperation.

Bingo. I believe I implied that some might be trying too hard. That there's a difference between panic and urgency. That's what this season boils down to, if you want something pithy and serves as an umbrella to all the other detail stuff.

Detail stuff:
1) Inconsistent forecheck
2) Not generating enough chances
3) poor D zone coverage
4) sub-par goaltending

These things are all fixable. For all its inconsistencies, it's not like the team is consistently bad. And you can't discount the injuries. It's time for the coaching staff to get creative (no, benching players is not creative).

 

[cslebn]

Taking a Snap shot of stats for the team from today:

Top 5 Goals:
Joey - 10 G (Projects to 30)
Arty - 7 G (Projects to 21)
Cam - 6 G (Projects to 18)
Foligno - 6 G (Projects to 18)
RJ - 6 G (Projects to 18)

Top 5 Assists:
Wiz - 16 A (Projects to 49)
Dubi - 10 A (Projects to 30)
Joey - 9 A (Projects to 27)
RJ / Tyutin / Letestu - 8 A (Projects to 24)

Top 5 Points
Joey - 19 (Projects to 58)
Wiz - 18 (Projects to 55)
Dubi - 15 (Projects to 46)
RJ - 14 (Projects to 43)
Foligno - 13 (Projects to 39)

This leads me to a couple conclusions:
1. Joey is doing quite well this year with offensive contributions. He is a -5 which means he's no Datsyuk for shutting guys down but he is still a 53.1% FO man.
2. RJ is doing better than the last two years. He's still not breaking 20g but he is improved.
3. Foligno and Dubi are performing consistent to their careers.
4. Overall, those are low numbers for offense; this trends out to 200 GF total at the end of the year. That's really weak, especially in the open East.
5. Notable absences from points stats: Gaborik, Tyutin, and Johnson. These guys are being paid to put points up and for some reason they are not. To a lesser extent there are guys underachieving as well - Arty, Letestu, Nikitin, Calvert (injury impacts), Prout, Jenner (rookie but should do better than 9 pts).

The team is going to struggle so long as they can't gather points. There are times they sustain a good forecheck but they need to cash in on opportunities. If they could it would impact the way the defense is being played and would improve the entire outcome. I'm not saying the boneheaded mistakes are okay, but with improved results on potting chances (projected 2244 shots total at avg 7.6% shot) it would lift the whole team.

Compare our statistics to the St. Louis Blues. Their top 5 goal scorers project to 65, 39, 26, 20 and 20. Top 5 Assists project to 59, 59, 49, 46 and 43. Their 5 Pts project to 100, 82, 72, 62, 59. Our top person doesn't crack their top 5 (yes Steen's numbers are odd this year but the trend is accurate). This team isn't first in their division and is 5th in the west (rather than comparing to Pitt). They have 8 players that project to score more than 50 pts. They project to 2483 shots this year with a 9.5 shooting %. This shows we are NOT a Horton away from competing. A Horton (say 60 pts) and healthy Gabby (say 65 pts) would help a lot to make us a playoff team, but we are not there yet.

We need to fix the system and fix our lines so we do produce at these levels and I believe the rest will fall in line.

On goaltending - bah we'll discuss that later.

 

[Crede777]

Again, judging a goaltender by his GAA and SV% is really weak. It's mostly a result of the team playing in front of him. It's like +/- where it doesn't say much unless it's a huge outlier (like being sub .900 and above 3.00 GAA).

Nobody is going to put up Vezina caliber stats behind a team that can't control the puck and put shots on goal.

By blaming the goaltending, we ignore the real underlying problem which is the fact that our skaters aren't playing near well enough. Fix our defense and forwards and the goaltending will be good. Start by getting Johnson an actual defensive partner who plays on the right side. Tyutin, for all his good, isn't a good compliment to Johnson and forces Johnson to play on his off-side. Late last season they went with Prout but that hasn't been an option this season given how Prout has regressed.

 

[EspenK]

I'll give you part of your argument in Bob's defense but he has let in a bunch of softies too. Any way you look at it Bob ain't worth 5.625 mill this season so far.