The Champs got knocked out because they were a much weaker team than they had been. And that probably continues next year with McKinnon's big deal kicking in.
Boston is very likely to take a major step back next year. They probably loose both Bergeron and Krejci and they will have $4.5M in carry-overs on the cap. At $86.5M they will have $9M in cap space with 14 spots filled. Orlov alone probably gets 2/3 of that or more and Swayman might get the rest. So all of sudden their very deep team has lost its top 2 centers, is at the cap with a 16 man roster. I expect Toronto and Tampa to both be weaker.
Looking forward to next year I think it is reasonable to assume that LA might be about the same. Vegas and Colorado are possibly worse. Dallas about the same. Seattle is hard to say. They don't have space to add to what they have and they could easily take a step back.
The one team that may get better that is a serious contender is Carolina.
I still think the Oilers biggest opponent is themselves. Not sure there are personal changes that make any difference. It's the attitude of the team that's the issue. They need to grow up and learn some real gamesmanship. Learn when to provoke another team and when to shut up and go to work. They're terrible at this.. absolutely awful.
This year they came out of the gates like a horse conserving its energy in a race. They didn't pay attention to the details of the game.. especially defensively. Made their goalies (who aren't innocent by any means either) job much harder. They then went super sonic in the second half of the season and burnt themselves out come second round of the playoffs. When things got hard those details disappeared and the first half team came back. They didn't have those instincts to fall back on.
I guess the defensive game just doesn't come naturally to them. So when it's needed they can do it. But not when there's pressure to do it. Game 66 of the year.. no pressure.. lock it down. Game 5 of a playoff series when the other team gets some momentum. They can't do it under pressure.