I don't think so, still today.
But it's always hard for me to judge "if he retires now" scenarios, because complete lack of longevity is almost unheard of so not a lot of comparables.
I do think he's definitely on his way to #5 minimum barring some catastrophe. And finishing higher than #5 isn't impossible.
My top 10 is usually something along the lines of:
Gretzky
Orr
Lemieux
Howe
Crosby
Roy
Beliveau
Jagr
Bourque/Hasek/Ovechkin/Hull
Has McDavid already surpassed any of those? I don't think so. But he's well on his way to.
Beliveau, Hull, Jagr, Ovechkin, Roy, Hasek, etc.
The problem with a lot of these discussions is some people resort to trophy counting....as if a season without a trophy is meaningless. Some of these guys have ~15-20 elite seasons, to McDavid's 9.
15 > 9
The thing is that some of these guys have 15 elite seasons some have less and also some of these "elite seasons" aren't as elite as McDavid's so that does matter right?
I agree that it is folly to simply trophy count but do you really think Jagr has 15 "elite seasons"?
Beliveau?
He has seasons that were merely just okay but then again he played on such stacked Hab teams that he could be carried a bit and even have bad playoff runs with multiple HHOFers and people kind of glance over that point.
I mean let's take Jagr, who I rank higher than many in the HOH do.
I see 7 or 8 elite seasons and then a couple of very good ones.
After all he has 11 top 10 scoring finishes but they also break down like this.
1,1,1,1,1,2,2,5,6.8,9
McDavid breaks down like this
1,1,1,1,1,2,2,3
The difference is that Jagr has 3 of them outside the top 5 on really stacked teams where he is the secondary or 3rd best player on the team.
Not all first place or top 10 scoring finishes are equal here are they?
Also many people who are going to cite Jagr will also point to Drai in an all time ranking and say well Drai was kind of the passenger (like Jagr) except Jagr had the luxury of Mario being out quite a bit and also being supported for many years by some extremely skilled linemates at forward in Pittsburg.
Also McDavid's level of scoring dominance is greater in his top 10 scoring seasons than Jagr and McDavid has probably 3 playoff runs better than Jagr's best run.
If you want to compare best 9 seasons, McDavid is at worst #5 already. but the rest matters too. He'll get there eventually, I just think he needs a few more seasons to measure up better to players with full careers.
Sure but many people who put Guy Lafleur up there as an all time great do so for basically a 6 year stretch and McDavid has had a longer stretch of dominance 8-9 years and has that 3 year playoff dominance that is getting really close if not better than Lafleur (minus the usual well Guy won the SC's as if the Habs and Oilers are even in the same ballpark).
I think the biggest case for McDavid clearly in the top 10 is that he has a legitmate case for being in the argument or hands down the best player in the world for 7-8 years straight and some of the guys you listed simply don't have that case.
They might have what I call more icing on their cakes but McDavid has a more solid base to his cake.
Even if one leans more towards your argument than mine McDavid is quickly gaining on those guys with elite all time seasons and playoffs and the weakness in the arguments for guys like Beliveau, Hull, Jagr, Ovechkin, Roy, Hasek become more of the difference IMO.
Goalies I will leave aside as they are generally more team dependant and are hard to compare to forwards who basically have to make their own way to greatness.