Is it time to rebuild?

[Thallis]

We can’t compete with Dallas and Nashville? Dallas didn’t even make the playoffs and Nashville is about to re-tool, they already moved Arvidsson and may lose a guy like Duchene to Seattle.

I know you may just be using them as examples but our situation really isn’t that dire. Many other teams have just as many holes as us, and once free agency is complete, I bet our lineup will look pretty solid again. If Montreal’s roster can make it to the Cup, the Blues theoretically could as well. We still have plenty of talent.

The central was a much better division and Dallas is about to get Seguin back. That's the company we would have found ourselves in last year had we not moved out West, and there's a decent chance of us getting worse in the offseason. It depends on how players see us and who's looking for wingers with us, but if we struck out or had to settle on Saad or a similar caliber player we could find ourselves in a pretty deep hole.

 

[Halak Ness Monster]

The Blues need to retool more than they need to rebuild. However, they need to get very lucky very quickly.

We went from #1 center being our painfully obvious missing piece for years to that now being a #1 defenseman being our painfully obvious missing piece. Yes, of course, Army messed up big time not bringing back Pietrangelo. We had our clear missing piece already in uniform. But that’s done. No use in crying about it.

Now the Blues have to scramble and they have to do it relatively quickly because:
Ryan O’Reilly: 30 years old
David Perron: 33 years old
Torey Krug: 30 years old
Brayden Schenn: 30 years old
Justin Faulk: 29 years old

This isn’t an old core. Most guys are still in their primes. However, time is starting to run out on a big chunk of very high paid players.

I think you’re looking at 2 more truly good years with the core above(mix in Binner and Parayko). Maaaybe 3 if we get the right pieces to plug major weaknesses.

Army has to act quickly this summer to get a #1 dman and 30 goal scorer so we don’t waste 1 of the 2-3 prime years remaining.

 

[TruBlu]

My personal opinion is that it's time to start stocking up on draft picks. If there's a market after the expansion draft to trade Tank for futures and prospects then that's the route we should go. For all we know that could be the plan.

 

[Vektor]

The central was a much better division and Dallas is about to get Seguin back. That's the company we would have found ourselves in last year had we not moved out West, and there's a decent chance of us getting worse in the offseason. It depends on how players see us and who's looking for wingers with us, but if we struck out or had to settle on Saad or a similar caliber player we could find ourselves in a pretty deep hole.

Dallas sucks. They wouldn't have made the SCF if not for the covid season and bubble. Not sure how you figure the Blues are going to get worse this offseason?

 

[Thallis]

So you would feel better watching a worse team? I really don't get this line of thinking from a fan perspective. This team has invested a lot of time, money and energy to build this team yet fans want them to tear it down just two years after winning a Cup because they are so eager to start a rebuild? That's a head scratcher for me. Being a fan of any team requires having a bit of faith, and it seems like a portion of this fan base has none whatsoever.

Because a sizable amount of us think we just closed our own window and have had the benefit of a year to confim that. We may have won 2 years ago but without Pietrangelo and Tarasenko this is a completely different and much worse hockey team. The possibility of Schwartz leaving only solidifies that. It's like saying the Sharks should still try to build for a championship around Burns, Hertl, and Couture because they were in the conference final 3 years ago. Waiting only serves to put us in limbo and make what assets we do have lose value as they age.

I don't think teams need to always follow the "tear it down and rebuild" approach. And if you haven't noticed, it's far from a guarantee of success. If the team keeps trending downward after this year, then we can talk but the Blues aren't going to abandon their long term plan just because of one disappointing, injury-riddled season. You want to alienate ROR, Schenn, Parayko, Binner, and the rest of the team by waving the while flag right now? Not to mention a large portion of the fan base who aren't HF nerds, and aren't always trying to outthink Armstrong and the front office.

They don't, when your best players are entering their prime and have the skill to win, that's when you retool. That's why we retooled years ago and refocused the core around Pietrangelo, Tarasenko, and Schwartz. There comes a time, though, the options to retool around just aren't good enough to carry you. Do we think Kyrou, Thomas, and Parayko are good enough to be the focal point in a cup contending squad? I absolutely don't.

That leaves the option of trying to make it work with what we have, but what we just saw was nowhere close. You point to Montreal, but they've had good 5 on 5 numbers for years and got a highly touted young talent that provided the finishing ability they were missing all that time. We both suck at 5on5 and don't have a Caulfield waiting to join us.

Finally, rebuilds and teardowns don't guarantee success, sure. Nothing guaruntees it. But since the Red Wings the only team to win the stanley cup who didn't rebuild around or after the lockout is Boston. You basically have to get extremely lucky with your drafting and/or free agent signings to make it work. We have been selling our picks for a while now, and we knew that we would pay for it in the future, but it was worth it. If the cost of the cup was rebuilding, I'd pay it again and again. I'd have like to have more runs at it, but the drop off from the roster has been fairly drastic and I'd rather accept the truth instead of whimper into that goodnight.

Feel free to disagree with some moves he's made, but it's silly when fans act like Armstrong doesn't know what he's doing as if he somehow lucked into his current position. The team is still a business and they have to make smart business moves, and I fail to see how starting a rebuild right now is good for business.

Pretty much everyone has to have some luck to win the Stanley Cup, it's a hard trophy to win. Armstrong lucked out when O'Reilly was made available. Now he's gotten unlucky with the Tarasenko situation. It happens. Maybe it is better business to get more data until the fanbase at large is convinced that a rebuild is the best path moving forward, but as fans, we don't really have to consider what Billy in Chesterfield who watches 4 games a year thinks. I'm looking at the roster and not really seeing a good path forward otherwise, so I'd prefer to rip off the band-aid.

 

[Celtic Note]

We need Kyrou, Thomas and Kostin to take big steps and be forces. If we let Schwartz, Hoffman and Bozak walk, trade Tarasenko and if Seattle takes Krug or Scandella, we’ll have tons of cap space. We are only a couple players away from being legit again. 1st line LW and top pairing LHD


We have a solid core and Sunny is coming back.

If we have all or most of those players leave, we are more than couple players away. That’s a lot of signings to make and if you are a FA and see a team on the decline and losing players, then the question is do you want to sign with them? We may have to get some players signed before FA opens to show UFAs that we are still trying to compete.

I also worry that the right players won’t be available to us. Similar to how we were left settling on Krug when Petro left. We took what was available, but not what we needed.

 

[Thallis]

Dallas sucks. They wouldn't have made the SCF if not for the covid season and bubble. Not sure how you figure the Blues are going to get worse this offseason?

Dallas is a much better team than we are, that's the problem. We can get worse by: Schwartz and Dunn leaving, Tarasenko being traded for a different aging, expensive player without the possibility of them becoming a play driver like Tarasenko could, and top Free Agents not being interested in playing in St. Louis. Schwartz is a question mark, Dunn is all be guaranteed to be taken in the expansion draft, that's the most likely outcome of the Tarasenko situation, and the last scenario is how it was before we were a top team in the league for multiple years. Free Agents ignored us, players had us on their no trade list. We basically had to get better via draft and development.

 

[Celtic Note]

We won 2 years ago without any elite players but lots of really good ones.

RoR and Petro were right at that elite category. Maybe they weren’t apex elites but they were pretty darn good. Parayko also played like an elite shutdown D. Maybe that is too liberal an application of the word, but it doesn’t change the fact that he was playing on another level. Schwartz also played really well then and hasn’t really seemed to reach that level since.

 

[Louie the Blue]

Dallas is a much better team than we are, that's the problem. We can get worse by: Schwartz and Dunn leaving, Tarasenko being traded for a different aging, expensive player without the possibility of them becoming a play driver like Tarasenko could, and top Free Agents not being interested in playing in St. Louis. Schwartz is a question mark, Dunn is all be guaranteed to be taken in the expansion draft, that's the most likely outcome of the Tarasenko situation, and the last scenario is how it was before we were a top team in the league for multiple years. Free Agents ignored us, players had us on their no trade list. We basically had to get better via draft and development.

How is Dallas better than the Blues when they missed the POs? At best, they’re comparable to the Blues.

And what FAs ignored the Blues? I can really only think of Tavares. Previous ownership had thin pockets and was committed to rebuilding via the draft. I’ll credit Checketts for being a better owner than Laurie, but dude didn’t have the $ to run a team and put the Blues in a really bad situation $ wise for about a season or 2 leading up to Stillman becoming majority owner.

That hasn’t been an issue under Stillman for the most part with regards to St. Louis being a target destination.

 

[Halak Ness Monster]

RoR and Petro were right at that elite category. Maybe they weren’t apex elites but they were pretty darn good. Parayko also played like an elite shutdown D. Maybe that is too liberal an application of the word, but it doesn’t change the fact that he was playing on another level. Schwartz also played really well then and hasn’t really seemed to reach that level since.

Yeah we absolutely had an elite #1 dman in Pietrangelo. Especially in the playoffs. Elite players are able to take their games to another level and lead a team to a title. Pietrangelo did it here. He nearly did it in Vegas but their forwards weren’t interested in it. Petro has generally been considered one of the game’s top 10 dman for the last 7-8 years. He’s not Victor Hedman but he has clearly been top 10 for being so consistently good to great.

And O’Reilly was definitely an elite two way center. Not a Crosby type but 77 points and a Selke is a pretty rare combo. I think he took the step into elite territory since becoming a Blue.

 

[Halak Ness Monster]

Dallas sucks. They wouldn't have made the SCF if not for the covid season and bubble. Not sure how you figure the Blues are going to get worse this offseason?

Dallas was perhaps the toughest team we faced during the Cup run. If Benn had been able to finish off the wrap around goal in double OT off the Parayko turnover, they would have waltzed past SJ and into the Cup Final.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Yeah we absolutely had an elite #1 dman in Pietrangelo. Especially in the playoffs. Elite players are able to take their games to another level and lead a team to a title. Pietrangelo did it here. He nearly did it in Vegas but their forwards weren’t interested in it. Petro has generally been considered one of the game’s top 10 dman for the last 7-8 years. He’s not Victor Hedman but he has clearly been top 10 for being so consistently good to great.

And O’Reilly was definitely an elite two way center. Not a Crosby type but 77 points and a Selke is a pretty rare combo. I think he took the step into elite territory since becoming a Blue.

Maybe we have different definitions. I don’t think top 10 defenseman means elite. Obviously he is very good (as is ROR), but I generally think of elites as top few in league at position.

 

[Celtic Note]

Maybe we have different definitions. I don’t think top 10 defenseman means elite. Obviously he is very good (as is ROR), but I generally think of elites as top few in league at position.

I guess I would consider those guys closer to generational or superstar level. Elite would be top 10ish in their position.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

I guess I would consider those guys closer to generational or superstar level. Elite would be top 10ish in their position.

By that definition I would agree that we had multiple elite players.

 

[Vektor]

Dallas was perhaps the toughest team we faced during the Cup run. If Benn had been able to finish off the wrap around goal in double OT off the Parayko turnover, they would have waltzed past SJ and into the Cup Final.

Thats not the same team they are today.

 

[Vektor]

Dallas is a much better team than we are, that's the problem. We can get worse by: Schwartz and Dunn leaving, Tarasenko being traded for a different aging, expensive player without the possibility of them becoming a play driver like Tarasenko could, and top Free Agents not being interested in playing in St. Louis. Schwartz is a question mark, Dunn is all be guaranteed to be taken in the expansion draft, that's the most likely outcome of the Tarasenko situation, and the last scenario is how it was before we were a top team in the league for multiple years. Free Agents ignored us, players had us on their no trade list. We basically had to get better via draft and development.

How are they better? Based on what exactly?

 

[Halak Ness Monster]

Thats not the same team they are today.

I was responding to your take about how Dallas only made the Cup Final because of the bubble.

I completely disagree. They were very good in 2018-2019 and that carried over to 2019-2020.

 

[Vektor]

I was responding to your take about how Dallas only made the Cup Final because of the bubble.

I completely disagree. They were very good in 2018-2019 and that carried over to 2019-2020.

Did it carry over? They has 82 pts in 69 games and were on a six game losing streak when the season halted. The Preds were 5th in the central and only 4pts behind. They were not that good at all in 2019-2020 and were on the verge of missing the playoffs.

 

[Thallis]

How are they better? Based on what exactly?

Well they're top 10 in CF% and xGF% for one, and we're the back half of both categories. They have a much better defensemen and defensive forwards, and the generated much better offense while playing in a much better division. They're a lot like Montreal was in that they play well 5on5 but have problems finishing. Seguin missing the entire year was a big factor in that. Swap divisions and we miss last year too.

 

[Vektor]

Well they're top 10 in CF% and xGF% for one, and we're the back half of both categories. They have a much better defensemen and defensive forwards, and the generated much better offense while playing in a much better division. They're a lot like Montreal was in that they play well 5on5 but have problems finishing. Seguin missing the entire year was a big factor in that. Swap divisions and we miss last year too.

Agree to disagree. I see a team poised to continue regressing. Guess we will see next year!

 

[Thallis]

How is Dallas better than the Blues when they missed the POs? At best, they’re comparable to the Blues.

And what FAs ignored the Blues? I can really only think of Tavares. Previous ownership had thin pockets and was committed to rebuilding via the draft. I’ll credit Checketts for being a better owner than Laurie, but dude didn’t have the $ to run a team and put the Blues in a really bad situation $ wise for about a season or 2 leading up to Stillman becoming majority owner.

That hasn’t been an issue under Stillman for the most part with regards to St. Louis being a target destination.

We're getting into ancient history here but off the top of my head we expressed interest in Spezza, Garrison, and Hamphuis before they basically told army to kick rocks. There was a long period in which we were trying to fill in our 1C a LHD position via free agency and struck out for years. That's why we were so excited when Stastny was on the market; the connection to St. Louis meant he wouldn't brush us off immediately.

 

[Louie the Blue]

We're getting into ancient history here but off the top of my head we expressed interest in Spezza, Garrison, and Hamphuis before they basically told army to kick rocks. There was a long period in which we were trying to fill in our 1C a LHD position via free agency and struck out for years. That's why we were so excited when Stastny was on the market; the connection to St. Louis meant he wouldn't brush us off immediately.

All of the players you mentioned were fairly early on in Stillman's tenure. In fact, Garrison was like a month or 2 after Stillman became owner. Hamhuis was before Stillman became majority owner. Spezza was in 2014

I don't think those are great examples given Checketts' presence as owner and the transition to Stillman being in the 2012-2013 offseason.

Also, for the most part, the Blues haven't gone after A-caliber players in FA with Armstrong/Stillman. Krug might be the highest caliber player they've signed, tied with Stastny and followed by Bozak.

You also didn't address my question as to how can Dallas be considered a better team than the Blues when they missed the POs and had less points than the Blues this season? They're close to the Blues talent level, but not much else.

 

[topshelf331]

Haven't posted in years.

But this offseason dictates what direction we go in 2022. Right now I think we are closer to rebuild than not. I dont care what people say, losing Pietrangelo and Tarasenko, possibly hoffman and Schwartz along with toughness is going to make us a bottom dweller. Rebuild , barring a youthful retool, is a 1 maybe 2 years away.

I'm on edge, not going to lie. What moves we make is critical in this window.

 

[Thallis]

All of the players you mentioned were fairly early on in Stillman's tenure. In fact, Garrison was like a month or 2 after Stillman became owner. Hamhuis was before Stillman became majority owner. Spezza was in 2014

I don't think those are great examples given Checketts' presence as owner and the transition to Stillman being in the 2012-2013 offseason.

Also, for the most part, the Blues haven't gone after A-caliber players in FA with Armstrong/Stillman. Krug might be the highest caliber player they've signed, tied with Stastny and followed by Bozak.

You also didn't address my question as to how can Dallas be considered a better team than the Blues when they missed the POs and had less points than the Blues this season? They're close to the Blues talent level, but not much else.

I addressed that in a previous post. Dallas was a much better 5on5 team in a much better division. You surely don't think the Blues were better than the Rangers this year despite them missing. The west was a complete joke and we were still one of the worst 5on5 teams in the league.

Regarding ownership, that's fairly low on the list of what players care about. Armstrong would have checked with ownership before pursuing anyone, and the indications were that they weren't interested in the city first. Having your team be a consistent league leader will go a long way in generating interest from FAs, but without that St. Louis often gets the short end of the stick

 

[BlueDream]

We're getting into ancient history here but off the top of my head we expressed interest in Spezza, Garrison, and Hamphuis before they basically told army to kick rocks. There was a long period in which we were trying to fill in our 1C a LHD position via free agency and struck out for years. That's why we were so excited when Stastny was on the market; the connection to St. Louis meant he wouldn't brush us off immediately.

I believe Spezza only nixed Nashville. He was open to us or Dallas.

Garrison and Hamhuis, well we lucked out there. Especially since I think Berglund would have been included in that deal for Garrison and he was then obviously used in a much better trade.

Regardless, 90% of teams will have certain players that don’t want to go there. But we’re not Buffalo or Columbus, plenty of players are open to STL.