Is Bedard more McDavid or Drai/Matthews/Mackinnon level talent?

[Video Nasty]

The people who always insist on bringing Daigle into it make me chuckle. He has nothing to do with Bedard; completely irrelevant to use as a cautionary tale.

One only has to look at their obsession with the game to spot the difference between the two…though I will add that Daigle got dealt an all-time worst hand. He had a fairly solid rookie campaign, considering he was drafted to a team that months prior had completed a season where they won 10 games and were outscored by nearly 200 goals, a feat they would essentially match during his first year, but that’s another topic entirely.

When one is basing their own reaction on the hype level of others who probably also haven’t seen even a clip of his play, I can see why Daigle might be a popular go to.

 

[Toby91ca]

Patrick Kane draft year in the OHL:
58gp 62g 145p

Connor Bedard draft year in the WHL:
57gp 71g 143p

Stats look comparable until you consider the rest of the league....Kane's stats were not nearly as dominant as Bedard's. Kane led the league in scoring by 11pts, Bedard led by 36pts + due to Kane's late bday, he was a lot older than Bedard as well. Bedard ppg 2.51 vs. #2 at somewhere between 1.5-1.7....too lazy to look it up again.....Kane at 2.5 vs. #2 at 2.22 and several others with high stats too....simply not comparable.

Jack Hughes had generational production too. Not generational. Alexis Lafreniere had generational production too. Certainly not generational. I can keep going, but I think you get the point.

What generational production did Hughes have?

 

[TLEH]

How did Laf have generational production? Dominant WJC?

Laf went 4-6-10. Thought he was clearly good in the tournament, its been a minute but I remember him being a physically dominant player in most games.

Bedard goes 9-14-23 and they have similarly dominant WJCs? He is also a July birthday and 6-8 months younger than players like Laf and Kane were at the same time.

He is getting undersold at this point

 

[Soundwave]

Stats look comparable until you consider the rest of the league....Kane's stats were not nearly as dominant as Bedard's. Kane led the league in scoring by 11pts, Bedard led by 36pts + due to Kane's late bday, he was a lot older than Bedard as well. Bedard ppg 2.51 vs. #2 at somewhere between 1.5-1.7....too lazy to look it up again.....Kane at 2.5 vs. #2 at 2.22 and several others with high stats too....simply not comparable.


What generational production did Hughes have?

I don't think Bedard would lead by 36 points though if Tavares was in the WHL at the same time (as he was no.2 to Patrick Kane). Tavares was megahyped too.

 

[TLEH]

I don't think Bedard would lead by 36 points though if Tavares was in the WHL at the same time (as he was no.2 to Patrick Kane). Tavares was megahyped too.

I think that is more than fair.

 

[CupofOil]

As a prospect, McDavid and Bedard are clearly above Matthews and MacKinnon who were pretty similar tier and way ahead of Draisaitl. He's closer to McDavid as a prospect than the other guys but I don't think he'll be a better NHLer than the 2nd tier guys which is no insult to him but you're talking about perennial MVP level players, Drai and MacKinnon in particular.

 

[Toby91ca]

The people who always insist on bringing Daigle into it make me chuckle. He has nothing to do with Bedard; completely irrelevant to use as a cautionary tale.

One only has to look at their obsession with the game to spot the difference between the two…though I will add that Daigle got dealt an all-time worst hand. He had a fairly solid rookie campaign, considering he was drafted to a team that months prior had completed a season where they won 10 games and were outscored by nearly 200 goals, a feat they would essentially match during his first year, but that’s another topic entirely.

When one is basing their own reaction on the hype level of others who probably also haven’t seen even a clip of his play, I can see why Daigle might be a popular go to.

Looking back....Daigle also got more hype than he really should have. He put up huge numbers, but we aren't talking Crosby dominance or Bedard dominance. He didn't even lead the league in scoring, he had 137pts and the leader had 148pts. He was younger and played less games, so he stats were still very good, just nowhere near the dominance we've seen from some others.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Stats look comparable until you consider the rest of the league....Kane's stats were not nearly as dominant as Bedard's. Kane led the league in scoring by 11pts, Bedard led by 36pts + due to Kane's late bday, he was a lot older than Bedard as well. Bedard ppg 2.51 vs. #2 at somewhere between 1.5-1.7....too lazy to look it up again.....Kane at 2.5 vs. #2 at 2.22 and several others with high stats too....simply not comparable.


What generational production did Hughes have?

Stankoven was over 2 points per game last year... The only guy close to Kane in PPG were his linemates. After that it was Tavares at 2 points per game.

At the end of the day it doesn't matter, Kane absolutely put up generational numbers in the best junior league in the world, but he was a smaller player who wasn't the fastest guy, which probably contributed to him "only" becoming a franchise player.

 

[Toby91ca]

I think that is more than fair.

True, but Sergei Kostitsyn wasn't too far behind at 131pts (2.22 ppg....better than Tavares) and then you have Tyler Donati at 129pts....never drafted, never played a game in the NHL.

I'm in no way trying to predict how Bedard will do in the NHL as I really have no clue, it's so hard to predict.....but just comparing level of dominance, Bedard is right up there close to Crosby and beyond what McDavid did.....sure there is no way to compare competition, etc.....but do the best you can with the raw stats.

 

[Soundwave]

McDavid's dominance as the best player in the league is pretty wild though, he's won 5 of the last 7 scoring titles, and of the two he didn't win he had his fingerprints all over 1/2 too (Draisaitl's win), so he's been in on 6 of the last 7 scoring titles.

McDavid is simply handicapped by Edmonton having poor management in terms of team success to date, but even that is possibly coming.

If Bedard can do that, hey that's great for the league.

 

[Toby91ca]

Stankoven was over 2 points per game last year... The only guy close to Kane in PPG were his linemates. After that it was Tavares at 2 points per game.

At the end of the day it doesn't matter, Kane absolutely put up generational numbers in the best junior league in the world, but he was a smaller player who wasn't the fastest guy, which probably contributed to him "only" becoming a franchise player.

Stankoven was also 2.5yrs older than Bedard....HUGE difference. As I just noted, I don't have a prediction on what Bedard will do in the NHL. If you could guarantee he'd turn out to be a carbon copy of Kane....everyone takes him #1 though.

 

[GrizzGreen]

McDavid wouldn't be McDavid without his otherworldly skating. Bedard is smaller and doesn't have that transcendant element to his game.

McDavid has also continued to work on his skills that weren't exemplary (scoring, shot) during his career. Crosby had the same drive.

Bedard seems cut from the same cloth but natural ability aside, McDavid has also shown he's an extremely hard worker when it comes to additional development.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Stankoven was also 2.5yrs older than Bedard....HUGE difference. As I just noted, I don't have a prediction on what Bedard will do in the NHL. If you could guarantee he'd turn out to be a carbon copy of Kane....everyone takes him #1 though.

No disagreements here. I think he'll have an excellent career. But if he fails to become Crosby or McDavid, it won't be unprecedented.

 

[TLEH]

Obviously part of how you translate to the NHL is your size and skating. He just doesn't have those physically dominant tools. Still aren't a lot of comparables to what he did vs his peers. WHL, WJC. Being a July birthday. Exciting.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

What generational production did Hughes have?

Probably the best career we've seen at the NTDP since it started.

There's been 3 (maybe 4 if you count Malkin's great career) generational players since the year 2000 with Crosby, Ovechkin, and McDavid. Despite that, every draft or two there's a player people suggest is generational. Obviously most of them aren't, and I think I have this discussion like every year when someone gets excited about a draft-eligible prospect telling them the player probably isn't generational.

You are telling me that of all the years there's been a NTDP and all the great American players there have been since then that there are no American players who belonged in the discussion based off their junior resumes?

And I guess the real interesting point out of all of this is that Hughes isn't even the best NTDP prospect ever. It's probably Matthews, but he didn't have the same junior resume as Hughes did. It kind of proves the point that it's not always about your junior resume, and more about how you project to the NHL. Bedard does not project as a generational NHL talent. You and I can debate whether he had the best junior career ever. It's basically irrelevant. He's done amazing in junior hockey and that tells us he's very likely to be a great NHL player, but junior hockey is not the same as NHL hockey. You can't take a junior career and transplant that success into what it will be in the NHL. It's not the same game. There are significant differences, and the types of differences don't tend to favor Bedard having the type of success he had in junior in the best league in the world.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

How did Laf have generational production? Dominant WJC?

Laf went 4-6-10. Thought he was clearly good in the tournament, its been a minute but I remember him being a physically dominant player in most games.

Bedard goes 9-14-23 and they have similarly dominant WJCs? He is also a July birthday and 6-8 months younger than players like Laf and Kane were at the same time.

He is getting undersold at this point

Lafreniere missed two games. He led the tournament in PPG as a draft-eligible.

This was also pre-war, so the WJC wasn't as watered down as it's become in recent years. WJC stats for all players post-war deserve an asterisk.

And I'm not even arguing whether Bedard had a better WJC in his draft year. He likely did, but this idea that Lafreniere didn't have a dominant WJC is revisionist history.

People were asking on this website post-tournament whether Lafreniere was a better prospect than Crosby, and there were quite a number that believed it.

 

[Connor McConnor]

Never really understood this line of reasoning.

Rarely anyone in hockey history is on McDavid's level of skating but there are a few players near or above his level due to besting him in other skills...

Bedard's strengths may very well be enough to make him as good as McDavid.

I mean.. most people think McDavid is a Lemieux level talent and nobody in history has a skillset as good as Mario. Bedard has 1 thing better than McDavid and that's his shot. AM has an amazing shot too and just lost the rocket to McDavid. Not sure your line of reasoning.

 

[Felidae]

I mean.. most people think McDavid is a Lemieux level talent and nobody in history has a skillset as good as Mario. Bedard has 1 thing better than McDavid and that's his shot. AM has an amazing shot too and just lost the rocket to McDavid. Not sure your line of reasoning.

The point is you don't have to skate well enough to equal McDavid if you have him beat handidly in other areas.

Lemieux had Gretzky beat in most physical aspects of the game, but Gretzky's hockey sense and passing was enough that he equaled and/or bested Lemieux in overall impact.

Even if you don't agree with the exact example above, I'm sure there are still quite a few examples in which it is the case.

Now, not saying that's what will happen with Bedard vs McDavid. As I said, i just didn't agree with the line of reasoning.

As for most people thinking McDavid is a Lemieux level talent.. not so sure about that, but don't wanna derail the discussion too much.

 

[Hippasus]

The people who always insist on bringing Daigle into it make me chuckle. He has nothing to do with Bedard; completely irrelevant to use as a cautionary tale.

One only has to look at their obsession with the game to spot the difference between the two…though I will add that Daigle got dealt an all-time worst hand. He had a fairly solid rookie campaign, considering he was drafted to a team that months prior had completed a season where they won 10 games and were outscored by nearly 200 goals, a feat they would essentially match during his first year, but that’s another topic entirely.

When one is basing their own reaction on the hype level of others who probably also haven’t seen even a clip of his play, I can see why Daigle might be a popular go to.

51pts/84gp. 93-94. This was a high-scoring season. In 96-97 he had the same amount in 82 games, and this was also his career high.

 

[Toby91ca]

Probably the best career we've seen at the NTDP since it started.

There's been 3 (maybe 4 if you count Malkin's great career) generational players since the year 2000 with Crosby, Ovechkin, and McDavid. Despite that, every draft or two there's a player people suggest is generational. Obviously most of them aren't, and I think I have this discussion like every year when someone gets excited about a draft-eligible prospect telling them the player probably isn't generational.

You are telling me that of all the years there's been a NTDP and all the great American players there have been since then that there are no American players who belonged in the discussion based off their junior resumes?

And I guess the real interesting point out of all of this is that Hughes isn't even the best NTDP prospect ever. It's probably Matthews, but he didn't have the same junior resume as Hughes did. It kind of proves the point that it's not always about your junior resume, and more about how you project to the NHL. Bedard does not project as a generational NHL talent. You and I can debate whether he had the best junior career ever. It's basically irrelevant. He's done amazing in junior hockey and that tells us he's very likely to be a great NHL player, but junior hockey is not the same as NHL hockey. You can't take a junior career and transplant that success into what it will be in the NHL. It's not the same game. There are significant differences, and the types of differences don't tend to favor Bedard having the type of success he had in junior in the best league in the world.

Being the best out of the NTDP isn't saying too much.....that doesn't sound good, but what I mean, it hasn't been around all that long relatively speaking. Either way though, I don't think your comment that every draft or two there is someone suggested to be generational. The last I remember may have been McDavid and I don't remember it too well, but don't remember it being anywhere near the hype of Crosby....that said, Crosby's hype may have also been boosted due to circumstances with lockout, etc. But point is, I don't remember hearing about generational players that much....McDavid, Crosby, Lindros is probably the one I remember having more hype than pretty much anyone I've ever heard about.

I remember Tavares hype around going to the OHL, but I don't think it was that much by the time he was being drafted into the NHL.

 

[CupofOil]

The point is you don't have to skate well enough to equal McDavid if you have him beat handidly in other areas.

Lemieux had Gretzky beat in most physical aspects of the game, but Gretzky's hockey sense and passing was enough that he equaled and/or bested Lemieux in overall impact.

Even if you don't agree with the exact example above, I'm sure there are still quite a few examples in which it is the case.

Now, not saying that's what will happen with Bedard vs McDavid. As I said, i just didn't agree with the line of reasoning.

As for most people thinking McDavid is a Lemieux level talent.. not so sure about that, but don't wanna derail the discussion too much.

It's not just McDavid's skating that makes him special though. He thinks the game better than everybody, it's what he can do with the puck along with warp speed that makes him unique and now he has added elite goal scorer to the list by improving his shot tenfold.

McDavid isn't the physical force that Lemeiux was but he's every bit as talented, he just does his generational things in a different way. McDavid in the 80s with how wide open the play was and how poor the goalies were might have put up 250 points in a season, I truly believe that. It's like Gretzky's vision with Bure's speed.

 

[Felidae]

It's not just McDavid's skating that makes him special though. He thinks the game better than everybody, it's what he can do with the puck along with warp speed that makes him unique and now he has added elite goal scorer to the list by improving his shot tenfold.

McDavid isn't the physical force that Lemeiux was but he's every bit as talented, he just does his generational things in a different way. McDavid in the 80s might have put up 250 points in a season, I truly believe that.

It was the poster I had originally responded to that claimed Bedard's skating wasn't good enough to be a McDavid level player which is why I'm saying what I'm saying.

Foe the record I agree it's the combination of hockey IQ and speed that makes him dangerous. But I do think my overarching point still stands.

 

[Video Nasty]

51pts/84gp. 93-94. This was a high-scoring season. In 96-97 he had the same amount in 82 games, and this was also his career high.

I’m not following. Can you clarify what you mean here?

 

[CupofOil]

It was the poster I had originally responded to that claimed Bedard's skating wasn't good enough to be a McDavid level player which is why I'm saying what I'm saying.

Foe the record I agree it's the combination of hockey IQ and speed that makes him dangerous. But I do think my overarching point still stands.

Ah ok. I think skating is just one of the reasons why he won't be as good as McDavid, McDavid's Hockey IQ is just next level, but he will be a better goal scorer than McDavid was early in his career. That shot is certain to translate.

If we're talking about purely how good they were as prospects, I don't think there's much of a gap between the two as Bedard is doing things on all levels that are just insane. I'm just not sure I see him as greatest of all time good (NHL Mt. Rushmore good) which is where McDavid is headed. The MacKinnon/Draisaitl tier is nothing to sneeze at.

 

[daver]

Ah ok. I think skating is just one of the reasons why he won't be as good as McDavid, McDavid's Hockey IQ is just next level, but he will be a better goal scorer than McDavid was early in his career. That shot is certain to translate.

If we're talking about purely how good they were as prospects, I don't think there's much of a gap between the two as Bedard is doing things on all levels that are just insane. I'm just not sure I see him as greatest of all time good (NHL Mt. Rushmore good) which is where McDavid is headed. The MacKinnon/Draisaitl tier is nothing to sneeze at.

Bedard has better hockey IQ.