International Hockey Trending
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Conspiracy Theorist
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- Jan 30, 2016
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Canada - I guess stagnant
- There's really no place to go but down. Not that I think anyone is going to be challenging Canada in the foreseeable future. Obviously anything can happen in a short tournament, but all things considered Canada should remain the strongest country.
USA - Clearly up - Given the number of registered players, infrastructure and wealth at its disposal, not to mention the NHL to drive interest, the US should continue to improve. Really, when it comes to producing talent you could argue up until recently the US was punching (well?) below its weight.
Sweden - Stagnant is probably fair - What Sweden has produced over the past ~decade is impressive, but given what they have to work with (population, registered players, etc) it's hard to imagine things getting much better. Should remain a contender.
Russia - Probably up - If they can produce a few defencemen they should be fine.
Finland - Things are looking up - Fairly recently things looked sort of grim, but now they could be looking at their strongest generation of players ever.
Czech Rep. - Stagnant at worst/Starting to tick up - Not too long ago things seemed to be in steady decline, but I think they have started to turn the corner. I doubt will ever see ~80 Czechs in the NHL again, or the national team being arguably the 2nd strongest on paper, but I think there's probably enough talent coming up to remain relevant. Like Russia, a few defencemen would be helpful.
Switzerland - Continue to slowly tick up - It's a wealthy country with a strong local league that is very popular, so if they don't eventually join the top tier of nations it should be considered a disappointment.
Slovakia - Stagnant at best - At one point it looked like they were sliding towards oblivion, but I think things have improved a bit. The days of 30+ NHLers and being able to consistently hang with the "big 6" are probably gone forever, but I think they can still settle in at the top end of the 2nd tier, perhaps at a level where Switzerland currently sits.
Denmark - Up, but how much higher? - Given that they probably don't have a whole lot to work with the rise from irrelevancy is pretty remarkable. The folks involved in the sport seem to be pretty good at getting a lot out of a little. Other "minnows" should probably be taking notes.
Germany - Stagnant at worst - I think any perceived decline is relative. I don't think Germany is getting worse, it's just the 2nd tier has grown in quantity and improved in quality. Countries like Switzerland, Denmark, Norway, France are stronger than they were a decade ago.
- There's really no place to go but down. Not that I think anyone is going to be challenging Canada in the foreseeable future. Obviously anything can happen in a short tournament, but all things considered Canada should remain the strongest country.USA - Clearly up - Given the number of registered players, infrastructure and wealth at its disposal, not to mention the NHL to drive interest, the US should continue to improve. Really, when it comes to producing talent you could argue up until recently the US was punching (well?) below its weight.
Sweden - Stagnant is probably fair - What Sweden has produced over the past ~decade is impressive, but given what they have to work with (population, registered players, etc) it's hard to imagine things getting much better. Should remain a contender.
Russia - Probably up - If they can produce a few defencemen they should be fine.
Finland - Things are looking up - Fairly recently things looked sort of grim, but now they could be looking at their strongest generation of players ever.
Czech Rep. - Stagnant at worst/Starting to tick up - Not too long ago things seemed to be in steady decline, but I think they have started to turn the corner. I doubt will ever see ~80 Czechs in the NHL again, or the national team being arguably the 2nd strongest on paper, but I think there's probably enough talent coming up to remain relevant. Like Russia, a few defencemen would be helpful.
Switzerland - Continue to slowly tick up - It's a wealthy country with a strong local league that is very popular, so if they don't eventually join the top tier of nations it should be considered a disappointment.
Slovakia - Stagnant at best - At one point it looked like they were sliding towards oblivion, but I think things have improved a bit. The days of 30+ NHLers and being able to consistently hang with the "big 6" are probably gone forever, but I think they can still settle in at the top end of the 2nd tier, perhaps at a level where Switzerland currently sits.
Denmark - Up, but how much higher?
- Given that they probably don't have a whole lot to work with the rise from irrelevancy is pretty remarkable. The folks involved in the sport seem to be pretty good at getting a lot out of a little. Other "minnows" should probably be taking notes.Germany - Stagnant at worst - I think any perceived decline is relative. I don't think Germany is getting worse, it's just the 2nd tier has grown in quantity and improved in quality. Countries like Switzerland, Denmark, Norway, France are stronger than they were a decade ago.
Canada - I guess stagnant
USA - Clearly up - Given the number of registered players, infrastructure and wealth at its disposal, not to mention the NHL to drive interest, the US should continue to improve. Really, when it comes to producing talent you could argue up until recently the US was punching (well?) below its weight.
Sweden - Stagnant is probably fair - What Sweden has produced over the past ~decade is impressive, but given what they have to work with (population, registered players, etc) it's hard to imagine things getting much better. Should remain a contender.
Russia - Probably up - If they can produce a few defencemen they should be fine.
Finland - Things are looking up - Fairly recently things looked sort of grim, but now they could be looking at their strongest generation of players ever.
Czech Rep. - Stagnant at worst/Starting to tick up - Not too long ago things seemed to be in steady decline, but I think they have started to turn the corner. I doubt will ever see ~80 Czechs in the NHL again, or the national team being arguably the 2nd strongest on paper, but I think there's probably enough talent coming up to remain relevant. Like Russia, a few defencemen would be helpful.
Switzerland - Continue to slowly tick up - It's a wealthy country with a strong local league that is very popular, so if they don't eventually join the top tier of nations it should be considered a disappointment.
Slovakia - Stagnant at best - At one point it looked like they were sliding towards oblivion, but I think things have improved a bit. The days of 30+ NHLers and being able to consistently hang with the "big 6" are probably gone forever, but I think they can still settle in at the top end of the 2nd tier, perhaps at a level where Switzerland currently sits.
Denmark - Up, but how much higher?
Germany - Stagnant at worst - I think any perceived decline is relative. I don't think Germany is getting worse, it's just the 2nd tier has grown in quantity and improved in quality. Countries like Switzerland, Denmark, Norway, France are stronger than they were a decade ago.
Slovakia is still probably a solid eight. They produce enough AHL/KHL quality players to ice a full team that's okay. Definitely better than Germany but not enough to be considered a 1st rate program.
Problem with all these lists and every time a person tries to make such lists is that rises are not matched with falls. Look at yalls lists literally everyone is rising. All teams can't rise that's ridiculous, just caught up in the moment and excitement over an individual or even a few prospects you put "rise" when the comparative scale shows no major improvement against either other nations or even the past. Here's my shot:
Canada - push
USA - falling
Sweden - push
Finland - rising
Russia - rising
Czech Republic - falling
Slovakia - falling
Switzerland - push
Latvia - rising
Germany - rising
Denmark - rising
Belarus - falling
France - falling
Norway - falling
Austria - push
Italy - rising
Kazakhstan - falling
Now I did that in two minutes it's not thorough and quite debatable but the principle remains, if everybody is "rising", yet the number of players drafted is not changing (drastically) the number of players in top leagues is also not changing (relatively) then every country cannot be trending "Up". Sports progress, they become more competitive over time, it's natural that today's athletes given better training environments and instruction are more promising than it seems yesterday's were but even if everyone simultaneously rises then the level of play inevitably rises with it and teams that fail to rise enough are considered fallers.
Canada - push
USA - falling
Sweden - push
Finland - rising
Russia - rising
Czech Republic - falling
Slovakia - falling
Switzerland - push
Latvia - rising
Germany - rising
Denmark - rising
Belarus - falling
France - falling
Norway - falling
Austria - push
Italy - rising
Kazakhstan - falling
Now I did that in two minutes it's not thorough and quite debatable but the principle remains, if everybody is "rising", yet the number of players drafted is not changing (drastically) the number of players in top leagues is also not changing (relatively) then every country cannot be trending "Up". Sports progress, they become more competitive over time, it's natural that today's athletes given better training environments and instruction are more promising than it seems yesterday's were but even if everyone simultaneously rises then the level of play inevitably rises with it and teams that fail to rise enough are considered fallers.
Conspiracy Theorist
Registered User
- Jan 30, 2016
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I don't think USA is on the decline. They are one of the few teams that can challenge Canada down the road. I think Sweden is on decline on the other hand.
BruinLVGA
Just got me a Beretta 92XI Squalo!
To be even more precise, of those picks, the worst was a 13th OA. Next one in line should be Nico Hischier. He could develop to be a very special player.
czechcanadian
Registered User
I understand what you're trying to say, and I agree with it. But I will disagree with Czechs falling. Complete opposite actually.
Canada - Holding on in the number one place.. Atleast until, Crosby etc generation is older/retired. I'm not saying there wont be players to replace them, but just that these players are those who won Canada couple JR championships.
Usa - Up, or Down. Up i hope, but depends on, how their prospects develope.
Sweden - Holding their position or falling. Defense is world class, but offense is more of a question mark.. Who's going to replace Sedin's, Zetterberg etc ??
Finland - Falling most likely. Our team is changing generation right now. So it might take couple years for them to be ready.
Russia - Hold or falling. Offense is there, but if they dont come up with defenders i see them falling.
Usa - Up, or Down. Up i hope, but depends on, how their prospects develope.
Sweden - Holding their position or falling. Defense is world class, but offense is more of a question mark.. Who's going to replace Sedin's, Zetterberg etc ??
Finland - Falling most likely. Our team is changing generation right now. So it might take couple years for them to be ready.
Russia - Hold or falling. Offense is there, but if they dont come up with defenders i see them falling.
JackSlater
Registered User
- Apr 27, 2010
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- 15,438
Looking at Canada's recent World Cup roster, which was close to Canada's best, Canada can add Seguin, Benn, Keith, Letang, Subban, Hall, McDavid, Stone, Scheifele, MacKinnon, Brodie, Ekblad, Rielly, Murray, among others. I suspect that you will be hard pressed to find a team that can add better players.
I think that the original list is pretty accurate. Canada should stay the same short term, maybe down a bit long term. The 2003-2010 drafts were ridiculous for Canada. USA and Finland definitely up. Sweden stagnant, maybe down if they can't produce more forwards. Russia stagnant as Datsyuk/Ovechkin/Malkin age out and are replaced by Tarasenko and company. Could be up if some of the defensive prospects pan out. Czechs look stagnant. Slovakia down obviously. It is difficult to consider this without differentiating between short and long term.
To be even more precise, of those picks, the worst was a 13th OA. Next one in line should be Nico Hischier. He could develop to be a very special player.
Yeah very excited by what the Swiss are doing.
It's simple. Canada was producing most of the elite players while many of the best Czechs, Americans, Russians and Finns were aging out. Danes, Swiss, Finns, Czechs weren't being taken in the top 10.
In fact quite a few Czechs have been taken in the top 10 as have Swiss players. Also, if these countries are gaining picks as you think then invariably picks for other countries are being lost...
about 60-70% of first rounds are Canadians. Canada is already the best but is simply reaching a diminishing margin of return because you can only ice 23 players on a team. The margin for improvement is basically zero. On the other hand getting the Swiss getting players drafted at 9, 11, 18, 13 and 5 is going to make them a lot better than they were when they could only ice a few players. The Danes didn't even have an NHLer when Lars Eller was drafted 13, then players at 8, 9 is going push them so much further in improvement. Going from mediocre players to solid to good NHlers is a big jump. In the last ten years the Czechs only have two top 10 picks. Voracek at 7 and Zacha at 6, separated by 9 years. The Czechs didn't have a first round pick fin 2008, 2009, 2010 or 2011. That said if Faksa, Hertl, Pastrnak and Zacha turn into above average to good NHLers, then that'll go a long way to replenishing their forwards ranks.
Yes, so if the Canadian draft rate is not changing, the other nations are interchanging. Similarly as far as TOI, there is a limited amount, scarcity. However, the important point is that International hockey is competitive, not progressive. Not only will more Czechs of the 97-02 group be drafted high than the 82-87 group, even if the Czechs have one or two top picks, international hockey is competitive, how do their classes compare to Finland? We're not talking about quality of hockey, inevitably that is rising, but there is only one gold, one silver, and one bronze. An uncalculated optimist however sees a championship run in every time.
The simple calculation is that the Past decade of Czechs and Finns consisted of a few NHLers. They, along with the Swiss and Danes now have the prospects to be more competitive in international tournaments. The US after a mediocre run that made Derek Stepan a top center option, now has two elite prospects. That's why they are improving. Finland and the Czechs were after thoughts in the World Cup and Sochi Olympics. They won't be pushovers soon.
czechcanadian
Registered User
Finland is definitely a step above the Czechs right now in terms of producing talent. But the Czechs won this years U-18 Ivan Hlinka gold. First time in the country's history. That should be a good sign of things getting better. Their U-16 team is really impressive this year too.
Both look to be producing some very good players in the 16-20 year old range right now which is great for international hockey fans.
tony d
New poll series coming from me in June
Pushovers compared to what? Compared to who? Compared to each other? Again, you simply can't defend this notion that everyone is rising. I could definitely challenge the statistics of it but that would distract from the real issue.
There is one gold. One silver. One bronze. You're basically comparing every team to Canada and saying "oh well they're all slowly climbing up look at these little ants go!" Most of the games these teams play will not be against Canada, but against each other. That's why their movement can't be calculated against Canada, but against the general movement of the mass. You have 6 of the top 7 teams rising, and none falling. That's absurd. FNP has 5 of the top 7 teams rising, still absurd. There's nowhere to go. If you are country x and you are just got your first top 10 draft pick (which is fairly insignificant in hockey, a depth sport), and another team has gotten 2 or 3 top 10 picks in the last year you are not rising, you are falling relative to them. It's debatable whether or not Czech hockey is rising in context of their own history, certainly they are not what they were in the late 90s early part of the century. However, if Finland is getting stronger and a faster rate, and Russia is getting stronger at a faster rate, their competitiveness level is still falling. International sports is competitive, not regressive. That means these teams will actually play each other, that's the point of having this discussion. So they're not up against a theoretical standard of landmarks, they're up against physical human teams. If my team just generated one Luis Suarez, and every other team (including teams that formerly did not generate Messis and Ronaldos) generated one Messi and one Ronaldo, then it doesn't matter that my Suarez is ,my first Suarez, I'm still falling behind competitively.
Bear12Good
Registered User
USA rising
Russia? Russia does not fall but not rise
However, the level of russian defense rises a little bit
Russia? Russia does not fall but not rise
However, the level of russian defense rises a little bit
Let's put it this way. If there's 600 NHL players. And they are all Canadian. The next year there's 50 Americans 50 Russians and 50 swedes. All three just got better even if Canada is the best. If all top 50 NHLers are Canadians one year. Then the next year the top 25 are Canadian but 25-50 is a combination of Americans Russians and swedes. Then all three have gotten better even if Canada is still the best. And if the Swiss and Czechs get 10 top 100 players when they had zero before. Then they've got better.
That's what is happening now. The 2014 and 2016 tournaments were low points for the Americans Russians Finns Czechs etc. that's why Canada waltzed through those tournaments.
You're still just comparing them to Canada, and not to each others..
I do understand your point of view, and other posters also.
But you'r sample really doesnt have real life point of view.. If some team would really improve their NHL players, then i would understand.
But the amounts doesnt vary so much.. What does change is quality of the players.
Etc: Sweden has had elite defense for a long time.. Now, that they havent brought a "elite" forwards.. Do they still rise?
Russia has elite offense, but below avarage defense.. If they get better defenders, before Ovi, Malkin retire. Wouldnt they rise?
It is relative to each other. If five nations all produce good prospects when they were bad before then they are all getting better.
If one nation falls behind like Slovakia then instead of being competitive for medals they will have no chance.
Of course the reason we compare to Canada is Canada is the best. At current they basically have a 99% chance of winning. It's just a question of who gets 2-3-4. If Finland Russia USA all get a bit better it's still Canada as favorite but maybe only like 75%. Or like back in the 90s it was like 40-50%. Obviously I'm making these numbers up as just a visualization of my own estimation.
