Implications of a flat cap for immediate future

[Bloomberg]

Sportsnet mentioned that there won't be much movement for the NHL's salary cap over the coming seasons (Link below)
Bettman: NHL salary cap will remain flat or near flat for 'immediate future'

Just wanted to get people's takes on what a flat cap over immediate future would mean for the Leafs and how the Leafs should navigate this. It's really unlucky for the Leafs because right after they signed Matthews and Marner to the big contracts, the cap goes flat. I remember people saying the Leafs signed the big deals because they anticipated the cap will go up by a lot (TV deal with ESPN) and in a few years, Matthew's/Marner's contracts won't look as expensive.

Now the cap is flat, how do the Leafs stay competitive? Important contract coming up end of this season are Anderson, Hyman and Dermott. End of next season is Rielly and Mikheyev.

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[Wiseguys]

With 11 open roster spots next season and only 12.5 million in cap space, Dubas has his work cut out.
It finally has caught upto him with 3 players signed in the 11 million cap range. It will be a revolving door of league minimum players and veterans passed their prime. Although Simmonds has been a pleasant surprise.

 

[Faltorvo]

Sportsnet mentioned that there won't be much movement for the NHL's salary cap over the coming seasons (Link below)
Bettman: NHL salary cap will remain flat or near flat for 'immediate future'

Just wanted to get people's takes on what a flat cap over immediate future would mean for the Leafs and how the Leafs should navigate this. It's really unlucky for the Leafs because right after they signed Matthews and Marner to the big contracts, the cap goes flat. I remember people saying the Leafs signed the big deals because they anticipated the cap will go up by a lot (TV deal with ESPN) and in a few years, Matthew's/Marner's contracts won't look as expensive.

Now the cap is flat, how do the Leafs stay competitive? Important contract coming up end of this season are Anderson, Hyman and Dermott. End of next season is Rielly and Mikheyev.

believe it or not we are in a pretty good spot

one of holl/kerf/derm are off the books and onto Seattle

let say it's not kerf ,,but we send a sweetener to a team like LA/OTT to take him(kerf)

and we let Fred walk

fred=5 m
Kerf=3.5 m
holl= 2 m

thats 10.5 m to add robertson ,Sandin,Lilly =2.5m

so our departed winger and defense has been filled out,Rob takes Kerfs role

rielly/Brod
Muzz/Bogo,Derm
Sandin/lilly

that leaves 8 million to get a starter and add to what hyman(+ 2.5m)?4.5m/4.8m ish

and of course fill out the rest like we have now,,with 700k/1m type

the year after that,, Kessels 1.2m is off ,,that can all go to Rielly(putting him at 6.2m before we have to start to scrape for more,,maybe another 1m is needed) and along with more 700k instead of 1m depth guys we can have enough for MR

soup,,well,he prolly gone

 

[Leafs87]

The NHL has to do something about possibly lower cap hits if we have a flat cap. Pretty much half the teams(could be more, too lazy to research) are at the cap. Entertainment value will suck and veterans will lose spots.

 

[Faltorvo]

With 11 open roster spots next season and only 12.5 million in cap space, Dubas has his work cut out.
It finally has caught upto him with 3 players signed in the 11 million cap range. It will be a revolving door of league minimum players and veterans passed their prime. Although Simmonds has been a pleasant surprise.

oh IDK if it will be a revolving door,,i don't see more turn over compared to normal teams

our top 6 are all young enough

miky/eng/roberts/vesey/boyd are either young or in prime age,,thats 5 bottom 6 right there

maybe toss in a Alex Galchenyuk and a couple of vets and we GTG

 

[Buds17]

Seattle's selection in the expansion draft will "alleviate" Toronto's cap situation somewhat (that player will then need to be replaced). Andersen doesn't appear likely to be re-upped. Dermott seems slated to receive only so much of a raise due to his current role. Re-signing Hyman figures to be the toughest task of this offseason. Mikheyev might be allowed to walk if Robertson is ready and Hyman is still on the team by that point. Retaining Rielly will be next offseason's most pressing matter. The cap remaining flat can be tough for players just as it is for teams though in terms of signing new contracts.

 

[Stephen]

I don’t think it’s doom and gloom at all because our most important pieces are locked in. So no exposure there. It’s not like we need to re-sign Pettersson, Hughes or Makar.

Other NHL teams are similarly at or near the cap so that means there’s less free agency dollars to throw around which depresses salaries and creates more one year cup pursuit players.

Our big ticket goalie is near the end of his service life as a starter so that money gets freed up and we need to find a replacement in an environment where teams could be shedding goalies ahead of expansion.

Muzzin is worth monitoring if he goes into decline.

Ultimately MLSE will still have more real cash to work with than other franchises.

We also have Sandin, Liljegren and Amirov representing 3 first round prospects to go with Robertson as ELC level replacements which is frankly better than some mid rebuilds.

So yes, some headaches in terms of Hyman and Rielly but also a lot of good things to work with.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

We are in a really good spot as long as we don't overpay Rielly and Hyman.

The main loss will likely be Kerfoot, which sucks, and getting a cheaper replacement for Andersen but if that is all, then we aren't going to lose a whole lot in terms of quality and we will have Robertson, Sandin, and Liljegren who should hopefully be providing us some surplus value for the next few years.

Other teams are a lot more screwed. We have our most of our main guys locked up. Other teams have to figure out how to give raises to core guys and are already in serious cap trouble as it is.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I don’t think it’s doom and gloom at all because our most important pieces are locked in. So no exposure there. It’s not like we need to re-sign Pettersson, Hughes or Makar.

Other NHL teams are similarly at or near the cap so that means there’s less free agency dollars to throw around which depresses salaries and creates more one year cup pursuit players.

Our big ticket goalie is near the end of his service life as a starter so that money gets freed up and we need to find a replacement in an environment where teams could be shedding goalies ahead of expansion.

Muzzin is worth monitoring if he goes into decline.

Ultimately MLSE will still have more real cash to work with than other franchises.

We also have Sandin, Liljegren and Amirov representing 3 first round prospects to go with Robertson as ELC level replacements which is frankly better than some mid rebuilds.

So yes, some headaches in terms of Hyman and Rielly but also a lot of good things to work with.

LOL beat me to it.

And yes, worst case the Leafs likely need to dump Muzzin or Brodie even if they still have something left in the tank. However I think we've planned it out well enough where we won't need to resort to doing that.

 

[Steve776]

 

[The Iceman]

The only guy that i think you would like to resign that we won't have cap space for is Taylor Hall

 

[Dreakmur]

We are in a really good spot as long as we don't overpay Rielly and Hyman.

The main loss will likely be Kerfoot, which sucks, and getting a cheaper replacement for Andersen but if that is all, then we aren't going to lose a whole lot in terms of quality and we will have Robertson, Sandin, and Liljegren who should hopefully be providing us some surplus value for the next few years.

Other teams are a lot more screwed. We have our most of our main guys locked up. Other teams have to figure out how to give raises to core guys and are already in serious cap trouble as it is.

By no means do I think we’re screwed, but the cap is going to be tight. There isn’t much wiggle room, but a good team can still be assembled if we do things right. Guys like Spezza, Thornton, and Bogosian were key this year. Who replaces those guys next year? I’m not sure we find quality players who want to come here for league minimum every year.

Ridding ourselves of Kerfoot is essential. He’s a fine player, but we can get fine players for a lot less than 3.5 million.

 

[Mickey Marner]

The effect is we need to reallocate money from the top of the lineup to the middle/bottom of the lineup. First we need to fix our goaltending though and see how much money we need to open up, as that will determine whether it's 15, 88 or both we need to move. The other teams have too much money committed to drive up the price of our depth pieces, but we need to internally stretch our dollars further. Seattle is a bit of a wild card, they could take draft picks/prospects for bailouts or go after big ticket free agents, perhaps both.

 

[BLONG7]

What kind of money will Reilly be asking?

 

[The Iceman]

What kind of money will Reilly be asking?

$8 large/season