If We Win Draft Lottery: Lafreniere or Byfield?

[Edge]

i'm not a Habs fan by the way, i just like to talk about the Nhl in general.
like what the Canucks did with their group. And even more what the Avalanche have done with their team. The Huricanes, i like too but less than these other two team.

The points i try to drive home and talked about are reality too. You cant project a young group of defensman will do without at least full seasons in the bank and espacialy young goaltenders and the series are somewhat kind of a next level. The flyers were aware of that when they got Niskanen And Braun.

This is horse shit to pretend that Staal, De Angelo and Smith will get this team to higher levels. So if you put this ''famous'' experience with young talents that have yet to prove. How do you get all this together working to get things done? Pure talent win games against so much elite competition.

The Rangers will achieve the same goals, im pretty shure, We'll see in the next years

I don't know if many here would disagree with you. I don't think anyone figures Smith or Staal into our long-term plans. They're here now because our LD isn't as advanced as our RD.

I feel like the debate isn't whether the entire meal is ready to be served to the family for Christmas dinner, so much as whether we are closer to having a great meal based on what's in the oven, and the ingriedients we have. And to that end, we have a lot of good stuff to work with.

 

[Killer Orcas]

Congrats on the lottery win and you take Lafreniere. You can always trade him if you like a package better after picking him. He's the BPA without a doubt nobody is good as him one for one in this draft.

 

[broadwayblue]

I don't know if many here would disagree with you. I don't think anyone figures Smith or Staal into our long-term plans. They're here now because our LD isn't as advanced as our RD.

I feel like the debate isn't whether the entire meal is ready to be served to the family for Christmas dinner, so much as whether we are closer to having a great meal based on what's in the oven, and the ingriedients we have. And to that end, we have a lot of good stuff to work with.

Yeah, our window doesn't really begin until a year from now when Staal and Smith will be off the team. I see these posts about Quinn being on the hot seat next season and I don’t really get it. Sure, we should see general improvement...but we're still a year away imo.

 

[Omark]

Weak "question". Obviously Rangers will take Lafreniere. Any other scenario is much less than 1%. Taking Byfield as 1.st Overall is basically 0%.

Also trading the first pick is almost impossible. I don't think people realize how valuable player like Lafreniere is in his first 3 years during a rookie contract. He is most likely a superstar right away. I think his fair value is at least 7m cap hit in his first year and 10+m cap hit during his second and third year. He is playing these years under a rookie cap hit contract. There is simply no other player in the league who is as valuable. Superstars we know are under a fair value contract with few exceptions like Kucherov and Zibanejad.

Rangers must win the Stanley Cup during Lafreniere's rookie contract. This is the biggest opportunity we are getting.

 

[Edge]

Yeah, our window doesn't really begin until a year from now when Staal and Smith will be off the team. I see these posts about Quinn being on the hot seat next season and I don’t really get it. Sure, we should see general improvement...but we're still a year away imo.

I think Quinn will be judged on the progress of his young talent. If Chytil flatlines, if ADA or Fox take steps back, if Lindgren doesn't progress, and Kakko and Lafreniere struggle, his seat will get hot.

I don't think the Rangers have a playoffs or bust mindset heading into next year, but I do think they want to see more players make the kind of jumps we saw from Shesterkin, Fox, ADA and Lindgren this season.

If guys regress, and Lafreniere comes in way under expectations, it will be on Quinn.

 

[Rangers394]

Weak "question". Obviously Rangers will take Lafreniere. Any other scenario is much less than 1%. Taking Byfield as 1.st Overall is basically 0%.

Also trading the first pick is almost impossible. I don't think people realize how valuable player like Lafreniere is in his first 3 years during a rookie contract. He is most likely a superstar right away. I think his fair value is at least 7m cap hit in his first year and 10+m cap hit during his second and third year. He is playing these years under a rookie cap hit contract. There is simply no other player in the league who is as valuable. Superstars we know are under a fair value contract with few exceptions like Kucherov and Zibanejad.

Rangers must win the Stanley Cup during Lafreniere's rookie contract. This is the biggest opportunity we are getting.

If the Rangers don't win a cup on Lafreniere's rookie deal, it's perfectly fine. People really need to settle down

 

[Math the wild rose]

Well if Lafreniere get this team to another level i think like MCkinon did. But one thing, if they cant get high end talent on defense by attrackting free agents or by trades, This team could be special more close to what you see. yes opening window for the next 3 years is a good statment.

 

[Rangers394]

Well if Lafreniere get this team to another level i think like MCkinon did. But one thing, if they cant get high end talent on defense by attrackting free agents or by trades, This team could be special more close to what you see. yes opening window for the next 3 years is a good statment.

So what you're saying is, our window is only open for Lafreniere's 3 year ELC? I guess if we don't sell off every single prospect and pick we have to try to win a cup in 3 years, it's a failure? Wow.Rangers winning the lottery really got people out of the woodwork

 

[Math the wild rose]

these discutions are fun!

 

[Math the wild rose]

Lol! Well lets say the window is 3 to 5 , 3 years from now on and the next 2 years after .loll) ar 3,,4,5 are the hightest window. after that good luck paying all that good people. Your Gm need to fulfill his promises with the salary cap or youll get a defense like the leafs.

 

[Rangers394]

Lol! Well lets say the window is 3 to 5 , 3 years from now on and the next 2 years after .loll) ar 3,,4,5 are the hightest window. after that good luck paying all that good people. Your Gm need to fulfill his promises with the salary cap or youll get a defense like the leafs.

Just because the Leafs have horrible management doesn't mean we do

 

[FIRE DRURY]

Well if Lafreniere get this team to another level i think like MCkinon did. But one thing, if they cant get high end talent on defense by attrackting free agents or by trades, This team could be special more close to what you see. yes opening window for the next 3 years is a good statment.

these discutions are fun!

Lol! Well lets say the window is 3 to 5 , 3 years from now on and the next 2 years after .loll) ar 3,,4,5 are the hightest window. after that good luck paying all that good people. Your Gm need to fulfill his promises with the salary cap or youll get a defense like the leafs.

Nobody has the mental capacity of understanding what you’re even trying to saying anymore.

 

[Edge]

The lottery isn’t even 12 hours old and we’re talking about what we need to do in 2023.

Time will be our friend.

 

[Rangers394]

Nobody has the mental capacity of understanding what you’re even trying to saying anymore.

I didn't want to laugh because maybe the person has an english problem or some other issue so i tried not to.



but then i failed.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

I didn't want to laugh because maybe the person has an english problem or some other issue so i tried not to.



but then i failed.

I wasn’t trying to be mean. I kinda understood what he was saying at first.

It’s turned into a bad acid trip since and I’m just confused what other points he’s trying to drive home.

So far I got MCkinon and our GM fulfilling promises..(?)

And defense like the Leafs. Yeahhh, I got that part too. Lol.

 

[Rangers394]

I wasn’t trying to be mean. I kinda understood what he was saying at first.

It’s turned into a bad acid trip since and I’m just confused what other points he’s trying to drive home.

So far I got MCkinon and our GM fulfilling promises..(?)

And defense like the Leafs. Yeahhh, I got that part too. Lol.

Lmao same here

 

[Boxscore]

This is actually much closer than the votes indicate. Lafreniere is going to be a stud--no doubt--but so will Byfield. Looking at this objectively...

LAFRENIERE: An explosive, pass-first, LW with good scoring hands. If all pans out, you're looking at a WING version of Jack Eichel (80-95 points in most prime years).

BYFIELD: A mammoth, versatile Center who will end up 6-5, 235 beast with incredible hands. If all pans out, you're looking at a cornerstone player in the Mats Sundin mold (75-85 points in most prime years).

Here's the thing though--there's risk in not take the "unanimous #1 pick" in Lafreniere. If you don't take him and he ends up a 100 point player and Byfield scores 70-75, there will be egg on face. However, if Lafreniere turns out to be Huberdeau and Byfield ends up Sundin, Kopitar or Barkov, the Rangers will likely be thinking, "what if?"

Personally, I would take Byfield with all the Rangers young, dynamic forwards. Kakko, Kravtsov, Chytil, Panarin, Buchnevich, etc. are all high-skilled players. Byfield gives the Rangers and beast up the middle for the next 12 years. Hard to pass up.

 

[Edge]

So there’s an assumption that Byfield is second on the Rangers list and that he’s the alternative to Lafreniere.

Something to keep in mind is that the Rangers could be one of the teams that has Stutzle second. Because there are more teams that have Stutzle ahead of Byfield than there are teams that have Byfield ahead of Lafreniere.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

Because there are more teams that have Stutzle ahead of Byfield than there are teams that have Byfield ahead of Lafreniere.

At the end of the day, Stutzle may in fact be the superior offensive player In this draft..

And Byfield may become that 2-way Kopitar-esque clone that does everything right..

But do they have that magic? Laf seems to possess that 1 thing a lot of high end draft picks don’t have. And it is indeed something special. I could smell it all the way here in Stamford CT.

 

[Edge]

At the end of the day, Stutzle may in fact be the superior offensive player In this draft..

And Byfield may become that 2-way Kopitar-esque clone that does everything right..

But do they have that magic? Laf seems to possess that 1 thing a lot of high end draft picks don’t have. And it is indeed something special. I could smell it all the way here in Stamford CT.

That’s why I don't think there’s a ton of debate as to who the Rangers would take first overall. I really don’t.

I don’t think they’re going to get cute and take Byfield or Stutzle as alternatives for that pick.

It’s not Lafreniere vs. one other player.

It would be Lafreniere vs. several other players - if it’s anything at all.

 

[Boxscore]

It would be Lafreniere vs. several other players - if it’s anything at all.

This is a very fair point. This is not a Crosby/McDavid/Ovechkin situation here. IMO, Lafreniere is more in the Tavares/Matthews/Hughes level of prospect--superstar but not generational. Say we include Stutzle in the mix--based on skill set at this point and possible comparisons. Again, this is stylistically and projection:

LAFRENIERE:
Best case--Nikita Kucherov (86-100+ / Art Ross candidate / elite Wing)
Safe case--Johnathan Huberdeau (75-90 / High-end 1st line Wing)
Worst case--Alex Tanguay (70-80 / Very good 1st line Wing)

BYFIELD:
Best case--Mats Sundin/Anze Kopitar/Leon Draisaitl (80-100 / elite, massive, franchise cornerstone Centerman)
Safe case--Aleksander Barkov (70-85 / Big, Top-line, Two-way Centerman)
Worst Case--Kevin Hayes (65-75 / Very good, versatile Centerman who could play on top-2 lines / Elite 2c and good 1c)

STUTZLE:
Base case--Mitch Marner/Johnny Gaudreau (80-90 / dynamic, playmaking, top-line W/C who can dazzle)
Safe case--Daniel Briere (70-80 / top-line W/C and key contributor)
Worst case--Johnathan Drouin (65-70 / flashy, talented, top-6 playmaker)

What crazy about this is that the Rangers literally hit the lotto! Considering all the young talent they have in the system--they are going to be an exciting, young, powerhouse in no time. And, in all likelihood, the pick is Lafreniere without question. But, just thinking as a non-emotional, unbiased fan--the Rangers are playing with house money here. And, considering they could use a huge centerman to help them compete for a Cup in the near future--Byfield looks very appealing. This kid can skate like the wind, shoots bullets, and will fill-out to be 6-5 or 6-6. Even in the "safe case" that he ends up Alex Barkov, the Rangers have a franchise horse up the middle for the next decade... and still have tons of scoring from the wing--Kakko, Panarin, Kreider, Kravtsov, etc. Could you imagine if this kid ends up Kopitar or Draisaitl? Some comparisons label him Malkin (which is extreme, out-of-the-park scenario) but even if he ends up Barkov, the Rangers have a weapon to face the best centermen in the division and conference... Matthews, Eichel, Coutuerier, Hughes, Tavares, Malkin, Crosby, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, etc.

Looking at this scenario reminds me of when the Leafs singed Tavares. While Tavares was an exceptional player--I always felt he was a luxury for the Leafs and didn't fill a major need. I mean, I'm not condoning on "passing on Lafreniere" but a 6-5, 80+ point, franchise center with Byfield's skill is hard to pass up when you're loaded with high-end wings in the system. It's a lot easier to acquire a scoring W via trade or free agency than a high-end, #1 center. These guys are nearly impossible to get.

Just my 2 cents.

 

[Apocalypse Dude]

When comparing Lafreniere, Byfield, and Stutzle there's something that stands out to me. Lafreniere has an edge that the Rangers (and all playoff teams) need and that's a willingness to play a little nasty. I'm not saying that those other guys can't develop it but watching them it's clear that Laf is far more willing to use his size to make a difference

 

[pld459666]

There's a strong argument there. No one is going to mention it now, but I can promise you someone will in the scouting meetings that are upcoming.

As well they should.

Someone has to be adamant that they take Byfield

That will force them to dig deeper and eventually take Laf anyway

 

[Boxscore]

When comparing Lafreniere, Byfield, and Stutzle there's something that stands out to me. Lafreniere has an edge that the Rangers (and all playoff teams) need and that's a willingness to play a little nasty. I'm not saying that those other guys can't develop it but watching them it's clear that Laf is far more willing to use his size to make a difference

Oh definitely. Lafreniere is no cream puff. He's like Matthews, where he'll use his size and strength to win battles. And, like Matthews, he's a hound on the puck--very high compete level. That said, so is Byfield. The kid backchecks like a demon and is very aggressive. Even though he's a hulking 6-4 already--he's not overly physical, but he's competitive and uses his size like a Couturier, Kopitar or Barkov.

Stutzle is the pure razzle-dazzle dynamo. You HOPE he ends up a Marner or Gaudreau. To your point, I wouldn't roll the dice on Stutzle at 1--too risky. Byfield is a justifiable reach but you don't even consider passing on Laf for Stutzle, unless you can see into the future and know 100% that Stutzle is the german Patty Kane (100+ and Conn Smythe level compete).

 

[ijuka]

I still don't get why you only include Byfield and not Stützle who's ahead of Byfield for McKenzie.

Out of these two I think it's Lafreniere at this point in time.