HF Habs: If there is an expansion in 2026: do you go 4-4-1 or 7-3-1?

[Le Barron de HF]

Hello all,

With all the discussion of yet another expansion happening in the NHL in the near future, it got me thinking of how much the timing could hurt what the team has been building towards with this rebuild.

Let's say in a hypothetical scenario, there is an expansion happening in the 2026 off season (it was confirmed the NHL would be welcoming the Kraken in Dec 2018; so it took 2 full seasons for them to join the league in the middle of a pandemic) and that the rules are the same as the last time:

* All players who have currently effective and continuing “No Movement” clauses at the time of the Expansion Draft (and who to decline to waive such clauses) must be protected (and will be counted toward their club’s applicable protection limits).


* All first- and second-year professionals, as well as all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward their club’s applicable protection limits).

Player Exposure Requirements

* All clubs must meet the following minimum requirements regarding players exposed for selection in the Expansion Draft:

1. One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played in 27 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 54 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.
   
2. Two forwards who are a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played in 27 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 54 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.
   
3. One goaltender who is under contract in 2021-22 or will be a restricted free agent at the expiration of his current contract immediately prior to 2021-22. If the club elects to make a restricted free agent goaltender available in order to meet this requirement, that goaltender must have received his qualifying offer prior to the submission of the club’s protected list.

We obviously can't tell the future and the names of the players to be protected BUT with the current make up of the team and the surplus of D in the pipeline, is it a no brainer that the team would go with a 4 forward, 4 defenseman and 1 goalie approach rather than a 7 forward, 3 defenseman and 1 goalie approach?

Historically since the Vegas expansion and Sealttle expansions only 10 teams (2017; 7 teams: ARI, FLA, LAK, NSH, NJD, NYI, PIT) (2021; 3 teams: NSH, TB, TOR) have gone that route. Obviously trades can be made that expansion team would take X player and in return of picks, with the surplus of picks, this is an option too.

It's fairly early I know, but there has only been 1 Habs game in the last two weeks so bear with me, figured it'd make for fun discussion.

Click to read more...

 

[FLHabs]

Suzuki - Caufield - Slaf - Dach - Guhle - Reinbacher - Hutson - Mailloux/Xhekaj - Monty

or

Suzuki - Caufield - Slaf - Dach - 2024 1st - Newhook? - Roy? - Guhle - Reinbacher - Hutson/Mailloux/Xhekaj - Monty

I think it might be too early to make that decision.

 

[Treb]

Suzuki - Caufield - Slaf - Dach - Guhle - Reinbacher - Hutson - Mailloux/Xhekaj - Monty

or

Suzuki - Caufield - Slaf - Dach - 2024 1st - Newhook? - Roy? - Guhle - Reinbacher - Hutson/Mailloux/Xhekaj - Monty

I think it might be too early to make that decision.

1st/2nd year pro are exempt.

 

[FLHabs]

1st/2nd year pro are exempt.

Oooh yea, 4 - 4 - 1 is pretty much the best option then. HuGo would probably have a stress free expansion draft hehe

 

[Goalfield13]

1st/2nd year pro are exempt.

If we assume an expansion happens for the 25/26 season, Roy, Reinbacher, Hutson, Mailloux would be exempt. I would then go 7-3-1:

F: Suzuki, Caufield, Dach, Slaf, Newhook, (two extra spots can give us leverage for trades with other teams that will lose players for nothing)

D: Guhle, Struble, Wifi (This leaves Matheson's last year exposed, if he is still here, unfortunately)

G: Monty

 

[vokiel]

They'll be forced to protect NMC & NTC? 7-3-1 is going to be necessary if so:

F: Slafkovsky, Caufield, Suzuki, Dach, Newhook, Anderson (NTC), Gallagher (NMC)
D: Matheson (NTC), Guhle, Struble
G: Monty

So we lose Arber probably.

 

[Habs13]

This would be an absolute disaster for us... so it will probably happen. Also, 4-4-1 is probably the safest route

 

[Miller Time]

This would be an absolute disaster for us... sonic will probably happen. Also, 4-4-1 is probably the safest route

Seriously...

Why can't that happen today, when we've got so many unwanted contracts on the books.

With how well KH has been managing the cap & contract extensions, by 2026 Gally & Anderson will be the only unwanted vet contracts left.

4-4-1
Suzuki CC Slaf Dach ... Leaves Newhook & any other top 6 additions (internal or traded/signed) exposed

 

[Whalers Fan]

They'll be forced to protect NMC & NTC? 7-3-1 is going to be necessary if so:

F: Slafkovsky, Caufield, Suzuki, Dach, Newhook, Anderson (NTC), Gallagher (NMC)
D: Matheson (NTC), Guhle, Struble
G: Monty

So we lose Arber probably.

Could probably get Gallagher to waive his NMC, similar to Price last time. No team would select him.

 

[Captain97]

Assuming 2025/2026

7-3-1

Suzuki - Caufield - Slaf - Dach - Newhook - Gallagher (NMC) - UFA we sign/guy we trade for

Guhle - Xhekaj - Struble

Exempt(Reinbacher, Hutson, Beck, Mailloux)

We either give up Matheson or trade him before the expansion draft as he would be in his last season.

 

[The Great Weal]

I would tell Bettman to go f*** himself, 32 teams is already too much as it is.

 

[calder candidate]

I would assume 7-3-1 because we have Gallagher NMC
but than again we probably don't have 7FW hat are worth protecting and we might have 4-5D that are worth more than Newhook, so 4-4-1 if we get Gallagher to waive (no one will pick him anyway)

Suzuki, CC, Dach, Slaf,

Matheson, Guhle, Xhekaj, Barron or Struble

I think MTL will be in position to make a trade to protect a guy like Newhook or Struble.

 

[Habs13]

Seriously...

Why can't that happen today, when we've got so many unwanted contracts on the books.

With how well KH has been managing the cap & contract extensions, by 2026 Gally & Anderson will be the only unwanted vet contracts left.

4-4-1
Suzuki CC Slaf Dach ... Leaves Newhook & any other top 6 additions (internal or traded/signed) exposed

Exactly what I was thinking. Oh, you want a goalie? Here! Have Jake f***ing Allen! Defense, yeah we've got a bunch you can have but, listen, forwards! How would you like to walk away with heart and soul (and no brains or gas left n the tank) Brendan f***ing Gallagher! Go ahead! He's yours!

Edit: Does an expansion team HAVE to take a player from each team?? Serious question! Like, could the team get to us and see our offerings of Armia, Dvorak and shit and go YIKES! No thank you!

 

[Habs13]

I would tell Bettman to go f*** himself, 32 teams is already too much as it is.

For YEARS I've wanted an NHL tier 2 but NooOOooOOooOOooo... nobody wants to listen.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Hello all,

With all the discussion of yet another expansion happening in the NHL in the near future, it got me thinking of how much the timing could hurt what the team has been building towards with this rebuild.

Let's say in a hypothetical scenario, there is an expansion happening in the 2026 off season (it was confirmed the NHL would be welcoming the Kraken in Dec 2018; so it took 2 full seasons for them to join the league in the middle of a pandemic) and that the rules are the same as the last time:

* All players who have currently effective and continuing “No Movement” clauses at the time of the Expansion Draft (and who to decline to waive such clauses) must be protected (and will be counted toward their club’s applicable protection limits).


* All first- and second-year professionals, as well as all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward their club’s applicable protection limits).

Player Exposure Requirements

* All clubs must meet the following minimum requirements regarding players exposed for selection in the Expansion Draft:

1. One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played in 27 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 54 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.
2. Two forwards who are a) under contract in 2021-22 and b) played in 27 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 54 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.
3. One goaltender who is under contract in 2021-22 or will be a restricted free agent at the expiration of his current contract immediately prior to 2021-22. If the club elects to make a restricted free agent goaltender available in order to meet this requirement, that goaltender must have received his qualifying offer prior to the submission of the club’s protected list.

We obviously can't tell the future and the names of the players to be protected BUT with the current make up of the team and the surplus of D in the pipeline, is it a no brainer that the team would go with a 4 forward, 4 defenseman and 1 goalie approach rather than a 7 forward, 3 defenseman and 1 goalie approach?

Historically since the Vegas expansion and Sealttle expansions only 10 teams (2017; 7 teams: ARI, FLA, LAK, NSH, NJD, NYI, PIT) (2021; 3 teams: NSH, TB, TOR) have gone that route. Obviously trades can be made that expansion team would take X player and in return of picks, with the surplus of picks, this is an option too.

It's fairly early I know, but there has only been 1 Habs game in the last two weeks so bear with me, figured it'd make for fun discussion.

Assuming Hutson and Tuch sign a PTO for Laval for this spring and an NHL contract starting next year, they will not need protection. Assume Reinbacher fiinishes the year in Switzerland and Engstrom in Sweden

Matheson and RHP can be re-signed after the expansion draft if they are not traded in their final contract year.

I imagine Gallagher waives his NMC clause (he does not have a full no-trade clause)

Exempt:
Beck, Mesar, Tuch, Engstrom, Kapanen, all 2023, 2024 and 2025 draft picks

Option 4-4-1:
Montembeault
Guhle - Struble - Mailloux - Xhekaj
Suzuki - Caufield - Dach - Slafkovsky

Expose: Newhook, Roy, Heineman, Anderson, Gallagher, Evans if extended, Ylonen, Farrell, Harris, Barron, Primeau, Dobes

Probably lose Newhook

Option 7-3-1 :
Montembeault
Guhle - Struble - Mailloux
Suzuki - Caufield - Dach - Slafkovsky - Newhook - Roy - Heineman

Expose: Anderson, Gallagher, Evans if extended, Ylonen, Farrell, Xhekaj, Harris, Barron, Primeau, Dobes

Probably lose Xhekaj

 

[CanadienShark]

Assuming Hutson and Tuch sign a PTO for Laval for this spring and an NHL contract starting next year, they will not need protection. Assume Reinbacher fiinishes the year in Switzerland and Engstrom in Sweden

Matheson and RHP can be re-signed after the expansion draft if they are not traded in their final contract year.

I imagine Gallagher waives his NMC clause (he does not have a full no-trade clause)

Exempt:
Beck, Mesar, Tuch, Engstrom, Kapanen, all 2023, 2024 and 2025 draft picks

Option 4-4-1:
Montembeault
Guhle - Struble - Mailloux - Xhekaj
Suzuki - Caufield - Dach - Slafkovsky

Expose: Newhook, Roy, Heineman, Anderson, Gallagher, Evans if extended, Ylonen, Farrell, Harris, Barron, Primeau, Dobes

Probably lose Newhook

Option 7-3-1 :
Montembeault
Guhle - Struble - Mailloux
Suzuki - Caufield - Dach - Slafkovsky - Newhook - Roy - Heineman

Expose: Anderson, Gallagher, Evans if extended, Ylonen, Farrell, Xhekaj, Harris, Barron, Primeau, Dobes

Probably lose Xhekaj

Can we play Xhekaj at forward for like 10-20 games to end the season and count him as a forward?

 

[WeThreeKings]

Expansion would be awful.. the league is watered down enough as is

 

[Rapala]

Seriously f*** EXPANSION.
There are a number of franchises that should be moved long before anymore talk of expansion.

Watered down bullshit.

 

[BargainBinSpecial]

Three unwanred guys' contracts will still be around. That is Price, Gallagher and Anderson. You expose these guys and that's that. Armia, Allen and Savard will walk in free agency a year prior. HuGo is actively shopping them around, but will get nothing of value in return.

Expansion would be awful.. the league is watered down enough as is

I would welcome teams in Houston, Salt Lake, Cincinnati, Omaha, Indianapolis, Atlanta and Kansas City. Quebec will get one in 2100, if ever.

 

[Scriptor]

Assuming 2025/2026

7-3-1

Suzuki - Caufield - Slaf - Dach - Newhook - Gallagher (NMC) - UFA we sign/guy we trade for

Guhle - Xhekaj - Struble

Exempt(Reinbacher, Hutson, Beck, Mailloux)

We either give up Matheson or trade him before the expansion draft as he would be in his last season.

Trade Matheson - keep the three you mentioned. Matheson will have served his role by then.

Expansion would enable Montreal to trade Gallagher for picks or prospects..

 

[ChesterNimitz]

Trade Matheson - keep the three you mentioned. Matheson will have served his role by then.

Expansion would enable Montreal to trade Gallagher for picks or prospects..

The only way we could trade Gallagher at this stage (assuming his NMC is somehow circumvented) is if we are the one giving up ‘picks and prospects’. And a lot of them. Think what the Flames paid to relieve themselves of Monahan’s contract.

 

[StCaufield]

Most of the current roster will be gone so I have no clue