If Mario Lemieux plays every game in the 1992-93 season what are his point totals?

[LeafsNation75]

Let's say in the 1992-93 season Mario Lemieux is not diagnosed with cancer and was able to play every game in the regular season, what would his point totals have been? In the 60 games he was able to play he had 69 goals, 91 assists and 160 points. So would he have broken any records like Gretzky's 92 goals?

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

could he have taken a run at gretzky's records? well he would have had four extra games, because it was an 84 game season, so that would have helped.

if we look at what mario had done up to when he left the lineup, he had played 40 out of 41 games, so exactly the halfway mark, 39 goals, 104 points. so double his pace and it would have been 82 out of 84 games, 78 goals, 208 points.

 

[Stephen]

160 games in 60 games is a 2.66 PPG. Even if you scaled that down to a 2.00 PPG average, that gets you 48 points in the remaining 24 games, to a total of 208 points. At 1.15 GPG, that would have given him 28 goals for 97 goals on the year.

 

[MadLuke]

A very gross way to look at it Lemieux after is first 42 games that year:

42	40	66	106

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Doubling that for the 84 games season
80 G, 132 A, 212 pts

 

[bobholly39]

I know in juniors Lemieux really wanted to beat Lafleurs records. My guess is if he gets into the vicinity of it with ~15-20 games left he'd go all out to surpass 215 and 92. I say he does it

84 games and such a strong supporting cast in Pitt

 

[The Panther]

Certainly possible with the four extra games. What really pushed Mario over the top that season (or, over Lafontaine, anyway) was the Pens' 17-game winning streak right at the end of the season. In that 17-game span, Lemieux scored 51 points -- in fact, he scored 50 points in just 15 games in a row!

But, if Lemieux doesn't go down to injury, and if the team doesn't get that lift when he returned with everybody firing on all cylinders, do the Pens reel off 17 wins in a row late in the season? Does Mario have the energy needed to complete the 84-game season at peak level?

I do think it's unlikely he'd have broken the 215, but I think it actually might have helped the Pens' playoff chances because they'd already have been in 'grind' mode before the playoffs started, instead of throwing their sticks on the ice and winning, as they were down the stretch.

(A similarly interesting question is: What does Gretzky get in 1983-84 if he hadn't missed six games? Probably around 94 goals and 220+ points.)

 

[bobholly39]

Certainly possible with the four extra games. What really pushed Mario over the top that season (or, over Lafontaine, anyway) was the Pens' 17-game winning streak right at the end of the season. In that 17-game span, Lemieux scored 51 points -- in fact, he scored 50 points in just 15 games in a row!

But, if Lemieux doesn't go down to injury, and if the team doesn't get that lift when he returned with everybody firing on all cylinders, do the Pens reel off 17 wins in a row late in the season? Does Mario have the energy needed to complete the 84-game season at peak level?

I do think it's unlikely he'd have broken the 215, but I think it actually might have helped the Pens' playoff chances because they'd already have been in 'grind' mode before the playoffs started, instead of throwing their sticks on the ice and winning, as they were down the stretch.

(A similarly interesting question is: What does Gretzky get in 1983-84 if he hadn't missed six games? Probably around 94 goals and 220+ points.)

I agree that Pittsburgh very possibly wins the cup if Mario hadn't left due to illness that year. I know he was on such a high when he came back, but you have to think it caught up to him by playoffs, and team too. They likely enter playoffs with a better pace and win under normal circumstances, based on how good a team it was.

I also agree with you that without his return and all of the excitement and motivation associated to it - maybe Pitt doesn't go on that 17 win streak and Lemieux doesn't finish as strong. No question he was motivated.

That's why I said what I said above. It really comes down to how far from Gretzky's records he'd be with ~15-20 games to go. If he was within striking distance of one or both records (and his pace before illness suggests he likely would be) - I say he goes all out and beats both. If he's a bit too far, he probably paces himself a bit and probably surpasses 200 points and 85 goals again - but maybe falls a bit shy of 215 or 92.

I've heard a lot of stories about Gretzky wanting to beat records. I've heard a lot of stories about Lemieux wanting to beat Lafleur's records in the Quebec junior league. I've not heard many stories about Lemieux gunning for Gretzky's records though, surprisingly. Not sure if he cared less about those, or felt they were out of reach, or maybe it's simply because he never came close outside of 1989 to make a real story out of it.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

it's inexact but if you look at mario's month-by-month, in all but one month he hovers around 3 points/game.

Month	GP	G	A	PTS
October	11	16	20	36
November	15	13	16	29
December	12	8	28	36
January	2	2	1	3
March	13	18	19	37
April	7	12	7	19

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

so other than november, when he "only" scored two points/game, he's 3 p/g +3 in october, exactly 3 p/g in december, 3 p/g -2 in march, and 3 p/g -2 in april.

if we give him that same three points/game over the 23 games he missed, that's 69 points. grand total, 83 games, 229 points, record.

so i think we would take 229 as the absolute ceiling of mario's '93 season without the cancer. in his very best months in '89, '93, and '96, he maxes out at about three points/game, with the single exception of october 1989, which was aided by an eight point game. if that had been a four point game, he's a single point above 3 p/g.

so 229 is the number we'd whittle down a reasonable 1993 bizarro healthy mario total from. given that this was peak back pain mario, how many games do we surmise he'd miss anyway? he was coming off seasons of 59, 26, and 64 games, plus two cup runs. is 70 a good number? maybe with the extra games in the 84 game schedule we could be generous and say 75? give him the same three points/game in games missed but up to 75 instead of 83 and that's 205 points.

the goals record, though, was more in play. even if you give him "just" one goal/game in those 23 games he lost to treatment, that's 92, tying gretzky's record. that might be as conservative an estimate as three points/game over the 23 is generous though. (he averaged exactly 1.5 goals/game after coming back.)

but i guess the other thing to consider is if you took gretzky's best per game season (1984) and extrapolated his points/game ratio to 83 games, he scores... 230 points.

 

[Nathaniel]

Somewhere between 210-220

 

[Nathaniel]

I agree that Pittsburgh very possibly wins the cup if Mario hadn't left due to illness that year. I know he was on such a high when he came back, but you have to think it caught up to him by playoffs, and team too. They likely enter playoffs with a better pace and win under normal circumstances, based on how good a team it was.

I also agree with you that without his return and all of the excitement and motivation associated to it - maybe Pitt doesn't go on that 17 win streak and Lemieux doesn't finish as strong. No question he was motivated.

That's why I said what I said above. It really comes down to how far from Gretzky's records he'd be with ~15-20 games to go. If he was within striking distance of one or both records (and his pace before illness suggests he likely would be) - I say he goes all out and beats both. If he's a bit too far, he probably paces himself a bit and probably surpasses 200 points and 85 goals again - but maybe falls a bit shy of 215 or 92.

I've heard a lot of stories about Gretzky wanting to beat records. I've heard a lot of stories about Lemieux wanting to beat Lafleur's records in the Quebec junior league. I've not heard many stories about Lemieux gunning for Gretzky's records though, surprisingly. Not sure if he cared less about those, or felt they were out of reach, or maybe it's simply because he never came close outside of 1989 to make a real story out of it.

Lemieux was gunning for it in 89 no question, I’ve seen an interview in 1993 of Lemieux saying his motivation is too break records and win championships

 

[Cursed Lemon]

I’ve seen an interview in 1993 of Lemieux saying his motivation is too break records and win championships

Wow what a weirdo, right?

 

[Iapyi]

It's possible he wouldn't have gotten any points in the games he missed.

 

[Son Goku]

It's possible he wouldn't have gotten any points in the games he missed.

It’s also possible that I get struck by lightning 37 times in a row and survive

 

[Troubadour]

So many players set their personal records that year it's hard to imagine a healthy, 26-year-old Lemieux would have not. 220's look like a possibility.

 

[Nathaniel]

So many players set their personal records that year it's hard to imagine a healthy, 26-year-old Lemieux would have not. 220's look like a possibility.

At least 210 in 84 games and that’s likely on the low side

 

[Video Nasty]

Hard to say with health and the extra overall games.

I kind of just default back to his 199 points in 76 games in 1988-1989 when people pose the idea that he would have kept up the pace for an entire full season. He had 103 points in his first 36 games. 114 in 41. 136 in 47. 37 over his next 20 games. 26 in his final 9 games (including 18 goals lol).

Or Gretzky who was as reliable and healthy as they come and a lock for 200 over and over. 153 points in his first 51 games in 1983-1984 and ended with 52 in his final 23 games for 205 in 74.

These two were more superhuman than anyone at keeping up torrid streaks/paces/projections and at their best, they still had stretches in a season where they were ordinary by their standards. I take less issue with projecting out for them than anyone in the sports history.

Because of that, in some magical world where Lemieux played 5 more games in a season than he ever did in any season during his career and his first ever complete season, I believe anywhere from 90-97 goals and 210-220 points is completely reasonable.

But it also wouldn’t surprise me to see him fall back to a 2.0 ppg clip for the 24 games he didn’t play and end up with 89 goals and 208 points.

Remarkable player. Wish we’ve had someone half as good as Lemieux among all the players that have come into the league since after his debut.

 

[Nathaniel]

We’re looking at 90-100 goals 210-220 points

 

[Super Mario 66]

220 points

 

[Boxscore]

I know in juniors Lemieux really wanted to beat Lafleurs records. My guess is if he gets into the vicinity of it with ~15-20 games left he'd go all out to surpass 215 and 92. I say he does it

84 games and such a strong supporting cast in Pitt

This is a great point. If Mario was close to sniffing the records--his team would be feeding him like crazy. I'd say he would have surpassed both, thanks to the extra games. Let's not forget--before and after being diagnosed--Lemieux was not up to par physically and he was still torching the league.

 

[Kamaya Painters]

1992-12-03: @LAK (1 GP: 1+3)
1993-01-07: MNS (1 GP: 1+2)
1993-01-09: CGY (0 GP)
1993-01-10: @WPG (1 GP: 1+2)
1993-01-14: @BOS (3 GP: 2+2)
1993-01-16: OTT (2 GP: 2+2)
1993-01-19: @Van (1 GP: 1+2)
1993-01-22: @EDM (1 GP: 1+0)
1993-01-23: @cgy (0 GP)
1993-01-26: WSH (4 GP: 8+5)
1993-01-28: NYI (5 GP: 3+7)
1993-01-30: PHI (6 GP: 9+10)
1993-01-31: @Wsh (4 GP: 8+5)
1993-02-08: @BOS (3 GP: 2+2)
1993-02-10: @NYR (6 GP: 10+3)
1993-02-13: CHI (1 GP: 1+1)
1993-02-14: @BUF (3 GP: 2+7)
1993-02-18: EDM (1 GP: 1+0)
1993-02-20: @NYI (5 GP: 3+7)
1993-02-21: @HFD (2 GP: 3+2)
1993-02-23: NJD (8 GP: 6+15)
1993-02-25: @OTT (2 GP: 2+2)
1993-02-27: TBL (1 GP: 2+0)
1993-02-28: @Wsh (4 GP: 8+5)

These are the games Lemeiux missed and his point totals against these teams during the 1992-1993 season.

Insane numbers.

I don't really have time to put together what could've been at the moment but I wouldn't be surprised if he'd surpassed Gretzky's record.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

It's amazing really. The NHL hasn't seen players like Gretzky or Mario in ever. Those 2 are 1A and 1B and I don't think there is any dispute. I think the argument comes at who is 3rd on back.