I lived in Florida from '96 until '06. During that time, I saw an exciting playoff-caliber team featuring Pavel Bure and Ray Whitney in 2000, as well as perpetual rebuilding thereafter. Still, despite the team's pathetic performances (you know there's a problem when Brad Ference and Lance Pitlick constitute an NHL team's second defensive pairing), many fans were excited about having high draft picks. As far as we knew, Nathan Horton, Jay Bouwmeester and Michael Frolik made for a great core -- especially with Stephen Weiss coming into his own.
But here's the thing: none of those players (except perhaps J-Bo) lived up to expectations. So, while Florida now has three or four promising names, it also took a decade to assemble a viable core. Consider the first rounders that the Panthers selected in 2001 and 2002 alone:
- 2001: The Panthers selected Stephen Weiss fourth overall. Instead of Weiss, the Cats could have instead selected any of: Mikko Koivu (sixth overall), Dan Hamhuis (12th overall) or Ales Hemsky (13th overall). In fact, Anaheim could have just as easily selected any of those three players (assuming Florida stuck to Weiss), instead of Stanislav Chistov (fifth overall).
- 2002: The Panthers selected Jay Bouwmeester third overall -- a great selection; no complaints. But then the team selected Petr Taticek ninth overall. Who could the Panthers have picked instead? Keith Ballard (11th overall), Alex Semin (13th overall), Chris Higgins (14th overall), Sean Bergenheim (22nd overall), Alexander Steen (24th overall) or even Cam Ward (25th overall).
My point, ultimately, is that the draft is a crapshoot. We should be thankful that, though some of our first rounders have not worked out the way we had hoped, we have still drafted well enough to have the squad we do today. We can't assume that further selections will turn out as well as prior ones have.*
Draft sequence sources:
2001:
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2001e.html
2002:
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2002e.html
* For the sake of brevity, I stopped my analysis at 2002, though I invite the reader to view other drafts for further instances of poor / unfortunate drafting.