Hurricanes Pro Scouting

[Discipline Daddy]

I thought this merits its own thread. I'm still coming off the high of the OT win against Washington and am hockey obsessed so here goes. The Hurricanes front office has done an admirable job of finding pro scouting gems the past few years. Seemed not long ago that we were disappointing every year by losing Cole and gaining Ponikarovsky. Step forward, step back. This year, the players we lose are almost entirely for cap reasons, and we get back generally the same effectiveness for cheaper.

I'm going to focus the list on AHL/tweener players or greatly distressed asset players. Guys who came to us as questionable NHL roster talents and who walk away as bona fide NHL talent, often compensated by other front offices as such. I'll also focus on pro scouting finds, not amateur scouting finds through the draft. I'll put in bold the players who really went from NHL-doubtful to NHL players, and the distressed asset -> asset in nonbold.

First year of Rod's tenure: 2018-19

• Jordan Martinook
• Nino Neiderreiter
• Greg McKegg
• Saku Maenalanen

Not much here. Martinook hardly counts. He was a 4th line player from Arizona when we got him, but clearly an NHL player and a 2nd round draft choice. All the credit goes to Martinook for being ridiculously hard working every shift, and working his way up to being too good for the 4th so he plays on the 3rd. Nino was great but was also clearly an NHL player before we acquired him. McKegg and Maenalanen had some decent spot duty for us.

19-20

• Vincent Trocheck
• James Reimer
• David Ayres

Trocheck was a great soldier for us. We got him as a distressed asset for cheap, but he is a borderline candidate as he was a bonafide NHLer. James Reimer, I think, qualifies, as he was very likely going to get bought out by the Panthers as they signed Bob. We got him for Scott Freaking Darling and Reims gave us 1B goaltending. We also found this 42 year old zamboni driver who leads the league in win percentage amongst all goalies of all time.

20-21

• Max McCormick

Yup.

21-22

• Tony DeAngelo
• Derek Stepan
• Alex Lyon

Tony DeAngelo is the big success here. His 21-22 year was awesome and on a cheap contract. Our asset management here moving on from Hamilton and then getting assets for Tony was excellent.

Stepan was a good find. He was coming off a big contract and we gave him a 4th line home. Even though his footspeed was terrible, he played our system pretty well and was always good positionally.

Lyon only played 2 games here, but that's a small success. He's worked his way into being a good backup / occasional starter, and he did his part here.

22-23

• Jalen Chatfield
• Stefan Noesen
• Paul Stastny
• Mackenzie MacEachern

Chatfield actually started in 21-22, but he only played 16 games then, and played 78 this year. One of our biggest pro scouting finds to get a top 4 D that didn't require drafting or trade assets.

Noesen was another. He had 1st round draft pedigree but was bouncing around and played 21-22 in the A.

MacEachern wasn't much, but he played hard in the playoffs.

23-24

Nothing much here. Couple of guys with 1 GP.

24-25

• Eric Robinson
• Tyson Jost
• Juha Jaaska
• Dustin Tokarski
• Taylor Hall

This was a prime year for pro scouting finds, and it is what prompted my list. Robinson was a great find. I thought he was 13F material, but he has actually played well as a "3rd liner" type. Tons of energy and hustle and plays that Brind'Amour identity. Jost hasn't scored a lot but has done admirably well as an injury fill-in. Tokarski helped through the lean goalie days of the season. Taylor Hall was a distressed asset that I put on the list as he probably was seen as negative value league-wide with his caphit. He's been the one of the most impactful forward addition this year, a step up from Roslovic or Robinson (though probably less than Blake or Stankoven).


I'm curious - how does this stack up against other teams? Is it really just a couple of great years' finds, or is this a trend that will continue? Who will be the next Eric Robinson or Jalen Chatfield?

 

[bleedgreen]

Would pro scouting not be a factor with Stankoven? Both Hall and Stank are pro scouting choices imo. Stank fell out of favor a bit this year.

I think Jost and Robinson were both solid choices, though obviously Robinson more so.

 

[Borsig]

I must be crazy because I am not impressed with either Jost or Robinson.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Just a nitpick but Nino was traded for in '18-19.

I think we're a solid top 5-10 team in terms of pro scouting, though it can be tough to tell whether it's the system making players look better or if we find talent where other team's don't see it. Also our player development factors in too, which isn't exactly pro scouting but related. I think we're easily a top 5 development team, but I may also just be being a homer as I haven't done any type of extensive analysis league wide.

Chatty was an incredible find. Some on your list I don't really agree with as being big "pro scouting finds." Like Jost -- I know dude was in the AHL for a chunk of last season but he also played 450 NHL games before coming here and has had several seasons with much better production than he's had here this year. He's just a journeyman veteran plug IMO.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

I must be crazy because I am not impressed with either Jost or Robinson.

Agree on Jost but Robinson has definitely been great for a guy on a 1 year deal for under $1m. 14G, 32P and +14 in 12 minutes per game. He's slowed down a bit since the start of the year and despite having similar production he hasn't impressed me as much as Noesen did, but still objectively a great find for the bottom 6.

 

[SvechneJerk]

Jankowski??

 

[DaveG]

Agree on Jost but Robinson has definitely been great for a guy on a 1 year deal for under $1m. 14G, 32P and +14 in 12 minutes per game. He's slowed down a bit since the start of the year and despite having similar production he hasn't impressed me as much as Noesen did, but still objectively a great find for the bottom 6.

that's about where I am

if anything Robinson early in the season was super impressive as a find, mostly because it feels like we had been looking for a decade to find someone that gels with Necas and we finally find that guy for a frigin dime when the consensus on him league-wide was "good dude but probably AHL fodder"

 

[Borsig]

that's about where I am

if anything Robinson early in the season was super impressive as a find, mostly because it feels like we had been looking for a decade to find someone that gels with Necas and we finally find that guy for a frigin dime when the consensus on him league-wide was "good dude but probably AHL fodder"

Is it just that getting rid of Necas as a line mate has sent him back down to earth?

 

[Discipline Daddy]

Jankowski??

Thought about Jank. My point was to make a list mostly of us turning coal into diamonds, finding NHL players from the pile of AHL/NHL tweeners or Europe. Jankowski I elected not to put down because he has a two year NHL deal. He went from being a 4th liner on another team to being a 4th liner on our team.

It was hard to draw the line. A player like Jost probably doesn't fit, but most recently he had played a lot of AHL time, so I put him in.



In the Brind'Amour coaching era, the only candidates to clearly meet the criteria as "unearthed NHL gems" are

Jalen Chatfield
Stefan Noesen

...and that's it. Those guys clearly were in the minors for significant time and have each earned three year NHL deals.

There's a few more guys whose career we have aided:

Tony DeAngelo
Alex Lyon
Nino Neiderreiter
James Reimer
Eric Robinson
Vinny Trocheck


I'm curious how that compares. I'd imagine it's a little better than NHL average. The Florida Panthers, for example, might have the best track record, helping the careers of:

Sam Bennett
Anthony Duclair
Gustav Forsling
Ryan Lomberg
Brandon Montour
Sam Reinhart
Carter Verhaeghe

Clearly it's a more impactful list. From this list they've found 4 hugely important core pieces: Bennett (probably gone this summer), Forsling, Reinhart, and Verhaeghe.

But aside from Forsling, these guys were all clearly NHL players just finding a lot of growth under the Panthers organization.

I'd nominate the Panthers as being perhaps #1 in the league for this growth and for pro scouting kudos. I'd imagine the Canes, with some nice but not earth shattering finds, are around #8. And on the other end, Buffalo is probably #32 in terms of losing tons of value due to all these great pieces growing into who they are under the watch of other organizations.

 

[DaveG]

Is it just that getting rid of Necas as a line mate has sent him back down to earth?

yep (IMO)

 

[bleedgreen]

yep (IMO)

In terms of numbers of course, it he’s big and fast. At the point of his career where he’ll do whatever the coach asks to stay on the game, and do it obsessively. You can find guys willing to do this every off season of course, but having his speed and the size to not get knocked around? He’s a solid add that isn’t easy to find. He played for Cbus and Buffalo….thats the reason no one thought he was worth anything. We identified him as someone who could do well in ours systems, we surrounded him with solid players to do his role and it’s paid off. Especially when you take in how cheap he is.

 

[Bunch of Jurcos]

I'd like to give a little extra love towards Martinook. I say this in the most loving way possible: he's easily the most frustrating Hurricane on the roster for me. It's not because he's done anything bad but because he's so smart that it puts him in excellent positions and unfortunately his skill doesn't let him finish as many chances as he should. I think so much of his game that if his hands were better he'd be making some serious money instead of 3rd line money. I appreciate his jump, the emotion he brings to the team, and the effort every night. I've seen plenty of games when the team didn't play it's best, but I can count on one hand the number of times I've seen him give less than 100% and truly that's all you can ask for. Thank you Marty Party!

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

To me, this year was a banner year for Carolina as far as pro scouting is concerned. It was not so much about finding individual pieces as much as it was about recovering from a whole load of important free agency departures through exploiting inefficiencies in the UFA market. Ghost and Walker were prime examples of an inefficiency; Florida won with size, especially on the blueline, and a consequence of this was that teams significantly overpaid for large defensemen even if their analytical data was suspect (as in the case of Edmundson in LAK, though he performed above my expectations this year). Canes managed to pay less on the cap hit of Ghost's and Walker's contracts because the market wasn't as hot for smaller, puck-moving defensemen.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

To me, this year was a banner year for Carolina as far as pro scouting is concerned. It was not so much about finding individual pieces as much as it was about recovering from a whole load of important free agency departures through exploiting inefficiencies in the UFA market. Ghost and Walker were prime examples of an inefficiency; Florida won with size, especially on the blueline, and a consequence of this was that teams significantly overpaid for large defensemen even if their analytical data was suspect (as in the case of Edmundson in LAK, though he performed above my expectations this year). Canes managed to pay less on the cap hit of Ghost's and Walker's contracts because the market wasn't as hot for smaller, puck-moving defensemen.

Agreed. I'll consider it a big win if Walker can prove to be a top 4 defensemen. Most nights by my viewing he seems a step below the top 3 of Slavin, Chatfield, and Orlov. But we may need more from him next year if we move on from Orlov and Burns.

Ghost has been hit or miss as an offensive guy. In a perfect world he's your #2 PP QB, but he has easily been our best option this season. As a #1 option he's been inconsistent. I don't think he was as good as Hamilton or DeAngelo's first year or Burns's first year. It's hard to find those guys. Frankly, if you gauge Ghost by his salary, he's been more than fine.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

To me, this year was a banner year for Carolina as far as pro scouting is concerned. It was not so much about finding individual pieces as much as it was about recovering from a whole load of important free agency departures through exploiting inefficiencies in the UFA market. Ghost and Walker were prime examples of an inefficiency; Florida won with size, especially on the blueline, and a consequence of this was that teams significantly overpaid for large defensemen even if their analytical data was suspect (as in the case of Edmundson in LAK, though he performed above my expectations this year). Canes managed to pay less on the cap hit of Ghost's and Walker's contracts because the market wasn't as hot for smaller, puck-moving defensemen.

We lost Pesce, Skjei, Noesen, Teravainen. Skjei and Pesce were ultimately replaced by Orlov and Chatty which were moves we made in anticipation of losing those 2 guys a couple years ago. Noesen replaced by Robinson which was a great find. Teravainen not really replaced until Hall but I view that as a great alternative to Turbo for cheaper.

Ghost-Walker could be any other random 3rd pair D men at similar cap hits and I think we'd still easily have made the playoffs and beaten the Devils. I don't really view either of them a "market inefficiency." We paid a fair price for them, I'd actually argue they are a bit overpaid if you have them on your 3rd pair like we do. Personally I want to see both moved this offseason to make room on our blueline. Probably not likely but we could see 1 of them moved.

Not everything we do has to be a "market inefficiency." We have moves like that, yes. But I don't think that's much of a factor in why we didn't have much drop off from last year to this year.