Player Discussion How overpaid is Tavares

[DitchMarner]

I'm surprised by how much better he's been at Even Strength and five-on-five compared to last year (and also by how poor his PP production has been for that matter).

This year he's shown signs of having the kinds of skills and abilities you expect from a guy making his kind of salary. He's handled the puck skillfully at times and has made some highlight reel quality plays. In the past, he was more of a glorified grinder/net front presence who scored on tap-ins and deflections but looked slow and ineffective with the puck on his stick.

I do wonder why he's not producing more on the PP this year, though. He gets a good amount of first unit time.

 

[ACC1224]

Nylander wasn't signed early, and Matthews was signed in when he could be.
I don't consider either early.
If you want to call Matthews one, superstars are locked up usually when they can be. Draisaitl is another example of a superstar re-signing when they can, before the season while still under contract. MacKinnon signed in September, 2022 while still under his old contract.

So the relationship, I disagree they were signed early.

If Leafs re-sign marner today, I wouldn't consider it early. I'd find it more unusual if they take the Stamkos approach and draw a line in the sand and let him shop himself around the league. Stamkos wanted to stay in Tampa, but talked to the Leafs, before re-signing in Tampa. The scuttlebutt was Leafs offering Stamkos over 10mm, and he took 8.5mm from the Lightning.

Early as in not waiting until the playoffs are over which is what I initially responded to.

 

[ULF_55]

Early as in not waiting until the playoffs are over which is what I initially responded to.

Okay.

IMO waiting until after the playoffs, to me, would be more unusual for a star player(s).

So has marner decided to wait until after the playoffs?
Would be weird to hear he wants to remain on the Leafs but declines to re-sign until after the season is over.

 

[ACC1224]

Okay.

IMO waiting until after the playoffs, to me, would be more unusual for a star player(s).

So has marner decided to wait until after the playoffs?
Would be weird to hear he wants to remain on the Leafs but declines to re-sign until after the season is over.

I doubt either side wants to wait.

 

[BraveCanadian]

The Art Ross winners point totals the 5 years prior to Tavares signing with the Leafs:

108
100
106
87
104

130-150 point seasons are pure myth at the time.

During those 5 years, Tavares was a 2x Hart finalist and runner up for the Art Ross.

Not surprising he got the money he got and maybe should have gotten more. Covid flat cap make his hit look worse than it really is. Without it, a ton more players would be making his money.

This season, Tavares has 17 goals and 36 points in 35 games

Tavares finished up last season with 17 goals and 31 points in 34 games.

Not really unexpected how he's playing this season is it?

I know he was a two time finalist but, again, at no time in his contract was he worth 11. It also doesn’t matter what scoring was then when my point was that players in that range more produce a lot more the past while.

Scoring going up masks his decline (and others) but the fact is that seven years at 11 million should still buy you more than what we got and what we’re getting.

It’s good that he is playing better and we don’t have so much dead cap tied up in him, but if you watched both seasons you know he’s playing much better this year than last. Points don’t tell the whole story. He’s driving a lot more play this year himself.

Again, I hope this little resurgence doesn’t end up in the Leafs overpaying him again. If he wants to win and show some love to his childhood team, now is the time to take a super sweetheart deal after the robbery he committed on the last contract. And no, I don’t care what SJ offered or whatever.

 

[Stephen]

Tavares has shown a lot of resilience in the short term stepping up at C while Matthews has been injured and less effective. Gotta give credit for his ability to hang tough and stay competitive after having the captaincy taken away and facing the last year of his contract.

 

[TopCheeseShotta]

The Art Ross winners point totals the 5 years prior to Tavares signing with the Leafs:

108
100
106
87
104

130-150 point seasons are pure myth at the time.

During those 5 years, Tavares was a 2x Hart finalist and runner up for the Art Ross.

Not surprising he got the money he got and maybe should have gotten more. Covid flat cap make his hit look worse than it really is. Without it, a ton more players would be making his money.

This season, Tavares has 17 goals and 36 points in 35 games

Tavares finished up last season with 17 goals and 31 points in 34 games.

Not really unexpected how he's playing this season is it?

Ahhhhhh... facts and nuance and context. Don't let that get in the way if hating on a guy with the actual sac to come back home.

What kills me the most about these people, is that he's been better as a Leaf than he was as an Islander..!!?? That's insanity..

So, contrary to what people say about an overpay, we literally got exactly what we paid for at the time - and then some, based on his before and after stats alone.

Bury this convo - cuz after a small blip in year 6, he's STILL worth it in year 7.. It's probably a top 3 UFA signing by the Leafs, ever at this point.

 

[Goose]

Ahhhhhh... facts and nuance and context. Don't let that get in the way if hating on a guy with the actual sac to come back home.

What kills me the most about these people, is that he's been better as a Leaf than he was as an Islander..!!?? That's insanity..

So, contrary to what people say about an overpay, we literally got exactly what we paid for at the time - and then some, based on his before and after stats alone.

Bury this convo - cuz after a small blip in year 6, he's STILL worth it in year 7.. It's probably a top 3 UFA signing by the Leafs, ever at this point.

Yep, some people don't understand context and the fact that you can't compare the contract for a "testing the market" prime UFA against a RFA contract or a team resigning an existing player.

Part of what JT's salary costs is the assets they didn't have to give up to get him.

 

[Metroid]

Saw this on Reddit. Didn't bother to check it all out, but if true, pretty funny and awesome

 

[Menzinger]

When a guy is making more than Sidney Crosby for 7 years, and paid in the range of guys that are dropping 130-150 point seasons and winning hardware, it’s pretty obvious that no fair market option is needed.

JT has played unexpectedly well this year after heavily relying on the PP (run by better players) for production and looking like he was pretty much cooked. But let’s not pretend the guy was ever worth 11 million.

There's a big difference between market value and on ice value.

Tavares is/was arguably the highest profile free agency of the cap era, and the market was always going drive that number sky high on the aav

 

[frizzer1]

Wait until after the playoffs.
If he looks good then 6 years for 12 mil.
Equals 2 mil per year and the last 3 years probably on LTIR.

Wait until after the playoffs.
If he looks good then 6 years for 12 mil.
Equals 2 mil per year and the last 3 years probably on LTIR.

It would really be 3 years at 4 mil per year.
The last 3 years to bring the aav down to 2 and he probably won’t play the last 3 years anyway.

 

[Taylor Halls Teeth]

I'm surprised by how much better he's been at Even Strength and five-on-five compared to last year (and also by how poor his PP production has been for that matter).

This year he's shown signs of having the kinds of skills and abilities you expect from a guy making his kind of salary. He's handled the puck skillfully at times and has made some highlight reel quality plays. In the past, he was more of a glorified grinder/net front presence who scored on tap-ins and deflections but looked slow and ineffective with the puck on his stick.

I do wonder why he's not producing more on the PP this year, though. He gets a good amount of first unit time.

We'll see if he can sustain this. People have remarked before about how he got "old" as soon as Keefe took over and never got his game back. I hoped this might happen under anew coach but feared it might be too late at 34 to reset things. Even if it doesn't last its nice how the three big guns have stepped up in the absence of real contribution by 34. 6th in the league even with all the warts.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Early Trading: What impact will Frederic's injury have on trade value? | TSN

TSN Hockey Insider Chris Johnston joined Gino Reda to discuss the ramifications of the injury to Bruins forward Trent Frederic in relation to his trade value, the Capitals' plans for defenceman Ethan Bear and where extension talks stand between the Maple Leafs and John Tavares.

www.tsn.ca

NHL general managers have a pretty full plate right now even though they've got guys who are pending unrestricted free agents. John Tavares fits into that category. Brad Treliving is really busy trying to figure out how to tinker with his roster before the deadline but at the same time Tavares is wondering 'What's my future here?' Is there any progress or talks going on right now or is this all being put on hold until after the deadline?

Johnston: We'll have to see what goes on. At this point the sense is that the extension is likely not in the offing in the short term. I do believe there's been a fair amount of dialogue throughout the season in terms of both sides understanding where they're at. The Leafs have a lot of different balls in the air. They're content to let things play out. They're aware that John Tavares wants to be a long-term member of their team. He wants to remain in Toronto. All those things can still be worked out in the future but right now it doesn't appear or sound as though that's a front-burner priority so it wouldn't be surprising to see him remain without a contract for next season, beyond the deadline.

 

[thewave]

He will likely be worth his 7m reported ask next season and then fade hard and fast.