How much did Joe Nieuwendyk's absence affect the 1998 Western Conference Finals?

[Jim MacDonald]

Good Afternoon Everyone!

I hope everyone is doing well. It's been a minute since I've posted!

Would love to hear takes from neutral observers, Wings fans and Stars fans---if the Stars have a healthy Joe Nieuwendyk in the 98 Western Conference Finals, in what ways do you feel this changes the series' outcome? To kinda "shoot from the hip" here as conversation pieces:

1. I don't know/can't remember now with the passage of time what kind of regular season and playoff Nieuwendyk was having prior to the injury against the Sharks....was he really kicking ass?

2. Stars with the home ice advantage this series.

3. Wings obviously playing with the "emotional intangible" of playing for Konstantinov and Mnatsakonov.

Boy the series went six games even with Nieuwendyk being out and both Yzerman and Fedorov were on top of their games. The "what-ifs" on a healthy Nieuwendyk both is fascinating and scary at the time time!-Jim

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

IMO, it didn’t.

Even with Joe in, Detroit was just better line for line. Osgood let in a couple of stinkers that series but the wings won anyway.

 

[Crosby2010]

Good Afternoon Everyone!

I hope everyone is doing well. It's been a minute since I've posted!

Would love to hear takes from neutral observers, Wings fans and Stars fans---if the Stars have a healthy Joe Nieuwendyk in the 98 Western Conference Finals, in what ways do you feel this changes the series' outcome? To kinda "shoot from the hip" here as conversation pieces:

1. I don't know/can't remember now with the passage of time what kind of regular season and playoff Nieuwendyk was having prior to the injury against the Sharks....was he really kicking ass?

2. Stars with the home ice advantage this series.

3. Wings obviously playing with the "emotional intangible" of playing for Konstantinov and Mnatsakonov.

Boy the series went six games even with Nieuwendyk being out and both Yzerman and Fedorov were on top of their games. The "what-ifs" on a healthy Nieuwendyk both is fascinating and scary at the time time!-Jim

Nieuwendyk believe it or not was having a heck of a year. 39 goals, that was the most by a Canadian in the NHL that year. Not a strong year for Canadian goal scorers, but still. Nieuwendyk was on the Olympic team and he was definitely playing well at this time. Got his knee taken out by Bryan Marchment in the opening round. Does that change anything vs. the Wings? I don't know. I'll say no. Because that Wings team was so deep, they were motivated to win one for Vladdy and to be honest with Osgood letting that woeful overtime goal in back in Game 5 it made the series go longer than expected. The Stars were a better team in 1999 and it showed. Detroit was still king in 1998.

 

[MadLuke]

This is next year Smythe winner, wings had won a game by a single goal.

Peak playoff Belfour, who knows how it goes with Nieuwendyk.

Dallas had the best record in the league for a reason, Dallas power play scored a single goal in those 6 games, they did not had their best power play scorer in there.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

This is next year Smythe winner, wings had won a game by a single goal.

Peak playoff Belfour, who knows how it goes with Nieuwendyk.

Dallas had the best record in the league for a reason, Dallas power play scored a single goal in those 6 games, they did not had their best power play scorer in there.

The Wings had Belfour’s number from 1993 onward.

Edit: from 91-92 onward with a winning record against them 3 times. (Twice in Dallas, once with Toronto)
23-32-7 with an .899 save percentage and 2.95 gaa against the wings. 10% of his losses against were the wings with less than 5% of his wins coming against them.

The dude was one of my favorite players to hate in his heyday but I’ve got a tremendous amount of respect for him. The wings figured him out and almost always found a way to throw him off his game.

 

[RocketCityRocker]

I always thought that Nieuwendyk being out kept that series from being a coin flip. The Wings defense could pretty much focus on the Modano line (remember, this was a year before the Stars got Brett Hull).

Fedorov had kind of disappeared offensively during the Stars series. He did have 20 points that year, but about half of those were racked up during the Phoenix series, where he single-handedly rescued the Wings from what was shaping up to be a first round upset.

Osgood’s goaltending was very strange that playoffs because each of the first three series, he’d let in a goal from center ice and then have a shutout the next game. I think with Nieuwendyk, the Stars probably take it and I’m a Wings fan.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

I wonder how well the Stars did with face-offs. In the late 1990's, Nieuwendyk was arguably the 2nd best player in the league on the draw. (The only player who was better was Yanic Perreault. He played his best hockey in the face-off circle. He played his second-best hockey on the bench).

Granted, hockey "analytics" have showed that the impact of face-off wins are overrated. But in a close series, it's conceivable it could have made a difference, especially if the Stars were already doing poorly in that area.

 

[VanIslander]

Look.
I was there.
On the couch.
When ESPN informed me Joe was out.
I IMMEDIATELY phone called (we used to do pre-texting): DALLAS IS COOKED. SEE THEM NEXT YEAR.
TV media agreed, citing several saddened guys, of course ending with "but we can".

 

[VanIslander]

I wonder how well the Stars did with face-offs. In the late 1990's, Nieuwendyk was arguably the 2nd best player in the league on the draw. (The only player who was better was Yanic Perreault. He played his best hockey in the face-off circle. He played his second-best hockey on the bench).

Granted, hockey "analytics" have showed that the impact of face-off wins are overrated. But in a close series, it's conceivable it could have made a difference, especially if the Stars were already doing poorly in that area.

HO, Joe's face-off stats are just a symptom of the virus he was... against inside defenses; to put otherly, he had elite hand-eye coordination, fight in a phone booth...

Forsbergness but less, basically Marleau with more heart, less legs

His absence put Dallas clearly out to many of us. I recall his teammates looking aghast, glum, almost defeated in the locker room after that game.

 

[MadLuke]

I wonder how well the Stars did with face-offs. In the late 1990's, Nieuwendyk was arguably the 2nd best player in the league on the draw.

50.6% FO, instead of a more expected 55% if he is there

Carbo-Nieuwendyk-Modano-Srukdland should put you around that 55% mark (like it did the year after of in the regular season in 1998 leading the league). Red Wings were a strong faceoff team as well too.