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How many points will it take to make the playoffs - 2013-14 edition

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HansH

HansH

Unwelcome Spectre
Feb 2, 2005
5,294
482
San Diego
Um, duh, I know this is too early, but I'm considering this MY training camp for when the data actually mean something :) I'll be updating this thread after most games, and sometimes day-to-day once we start getting to crunch time in the season.

After the games of 10/3:

Currently, the projected cutoff for the playoffs in the West is 82 points, with Minnesota and Calgary sharing the bubble (one would be in, one would be out) - so 83 points is the target for the Kings to make the playoffs clear.

This translates to a record of 40-40-1 in the remaining 81 games, or a points ("winning") percentage of .500.
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Glue this, please! These are most useful, and it would be wonderful if they were all in one easy-to-find spot.
 
Legionnaire said:
It is so hard to tell with the new divisions.
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The way I'm doing it is to eliminate the top three in each division (the automatic qualifiers) and see how many points the 2nd "wild card" would have -- therefore, if the Kings get more than that, they would clinch a playoff spot.

Alternately, they can qualify just by finishing top three in the Pacific -- as it happens, that would also, at this moment, be 83 points :)
 
Thanks HansH

How accurate did this form of statistical analysis work out to be last year? I know that there are several variables but am always curious about these things.
 
Since there is only one game played by each team in the west these numbers will go up. Where they are probably accurate with the one game played I would guess the number will be closer to 90-94 in the end. Will be interesting to see how close that estimate really is.
 
tsanuri said:
Since there is only one game played by each team in the west these numbers will go up. Where they are probably accurate with the one game played I would guess the number will be closer to 90-94 in the end. Will be interesting to see how close that estimate really is.
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I agree. I think it'll be 92-96
 
After the games of 10/4:

Currently, the projected cutoff for the playoffs in the West is 82 points, with the Kings and Minnesota sharing the bubble (one would be in, one would be out) - so 83 points remains the target for the Kings to make the playoffs in the clear.

This translates to a record of 40-39-1 in the remaining 80 games, or a points ("winning") percentage of .506.
 
Tonellisghost said:
Thanks HansH

How accurate did this form of statistical analysis work out to be last year? I know that there are several variables but am always curious about these things.
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As with anything, it got better the closer we got to the close of the season, as each individual game had less weight in the overall data set. I don't mean to present this as an actual predictor - just a quick "rule of thumb" estimation as of the current snapshot -- a kind of extension to the time-honored "if the season were to end today..." hypothetical.
 
After the games of 10/6:

These numbers will swing WILDLY in the first few weeks of the season, of course, given the small data sample to start with.

The projected cutoff for the playoffs in the West has risen to 109 points, - so 110 points becomes the target for the Kings to make the playoffs in the clear.

This translates to a record of 55-25 in the remaining 80 games, or a points ("winning") percentage of .688.

Again, this will swing WILDLY for a while.
 
HansH said:
After the games of 10/6:

These numbers will swing WILDLY in the first few weeks of the season, of course, given the small data sample to start with.

The projected cutoff for the playoffs in the West has risen to 109 points, - so 110 points becomes the target for the Kings to make the playoffs in the clear.

This translates to a record of 55-25 in the remaining 80 games, or a points ("winning") percentage of .688.

Again, this will swing WILDLY for a while.
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Thanks again Hans!

It is early and will swing wildly as you have said but a record 50 and 30 the rest of the way should be doable by us or close to it.

I say we end up with 101pts based on my gut and "experience" :lightning:sarcasm:.
 
(For reference, the Kings made the playoffs as the #8 seed with 95 points in the 2011-12 season -- but would have qualified with anything 91 points or over. 92 points is what the #8 team in the East had that same season. I wouldn't be surprised to see the cutoff end somewhere in that range, myself.)
 
After games of 10/7:

Target remains 110 points.

To achieve that, the Kings need a record of 54-25 in the remaining 79 games (a percentage of .684)
 
Can't we wait until at least half the season is over to start this conversation? Otherwise, it's kind of depressing.
 
After games of 10/9/13:

The target has unsurprisingly fallen, in keeping with the wild swings. As of this moment, three teams are projected to be tied for the final wild-card spot - the Kings, the Stars, and the Blackhawks - with a projected 82 points each. So, the target to make the playoffs in the clear is back to 83 points.

This translates to a record of 39-38-1 in the remaining 78 games, a percentage of .506.
 
I love this thread. Even though it will vacillate wildly from the start to the end of the season I like seeing the changes and how the numbers move around. The season starts and the totals swing wildly and then they settle down a bit and then they move around until the end. I think it is an interesting thread and am happy it is here but, I can understand how some people might not enjoy it so much.

I agree with the ignore it idea but would suggest to those who don't like it that they simply keep checking in and maybe they will in time find something that they find interesting about it.
 
I'm going to say 94 points, but alternately I'm going to guess 1 more point than the 9th place team.

Of course I could be wrong, maybe it will be just 1 more ROW than the 9th place team.
 
After games of 10/11/13:

At this pace, 98 points would give a three-way tie for the two wild-card spots (Los Angeles, Vancouver, and Phoenix), so the target to make the playoffs in the clear is currently 99 points.

This translates to a record of 46-30-1 in the remaining 77 games, a percentage of .604.
 
After games of 10/14/13:

As of now, 109 points is projected to be a three-way tie for the two wild card spots (Los Angeles, Phoenix, and Minnesota), so the target to make the playoffs in the clear is now 110 points.

This translates to a record of 51-24 in the remaining 76 games, a percentage of .671.

For the Easterners who whined that realignment made it unfairly easy to make the playoffs in the West -- the corresponding numbers are 99 points in the Atlantic, and 83 points in the Metropolitan.
 
After games of 10/16/13:

There is now projected to be a three-way tie for the lower of the two wild-card spots, at 94 points (Vancouver, Los Angeles, Minnesota), so 95 points is the target to make the playoffs in the clear.

That translates to a record needed of 43-31-1 in the remaining 75 games, a percentage of .580.
 
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After games of 10/17/13:

The current pace has Vancouver and Los Angeles tying for the final playoff spot with 103 points each, so the target to make the playoffs in the clear is 104.

This translates to a record of 47-27 in the remaining 74 games, a percentage of .635 (the Kings' current percentage is .625)
 
After games of 10/19/13:

It's simpled up some. Short answer, 95 points is now the target to make the playoffs (Calgary is projected as just outside the 2nd wildcard with 94 points).

That translates to a record of 41-31-1 in the remaining 73 games, a percentage of .568 (the team's current percentage is .667).
 
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