I have a hard time being overly "reactionary" in this situation and wanting heads to role. Not because I'm a "keep the status quo" type of guy, but because I think Dubas and Shanahan actually had a really good game plan, that was derailed by Covid-19 and salary cap stagnation. They're trying to pivot and adapt to what they have to work with, and, thus far, it's come up short, with a chance to take another step forward on Saturday night.
Like it, or not, when Kyle Dubas signed Matthews, Tavares, Nylander and Marner to the deals, he, Shanny, Pridham and company did so, like all other business people, by projecting out the salary cap moving forward. Absolutely nobody could have predicted multi-year cap stagnation, followed by multi-year minor cap growth, caused by a once in a lifetime pandemic. Did Dubas pay a little bit extra to get deals done with Tavares (who was reportedly offered more), Matthews and Marner? Yep, I'm not trying to deflect from that, or bury that reality. But when you talk about the deficiencies in goal and defensively, the honest reality, all emotion aside, is that Dubas was expecting to have about $90 million to spend right now, rather than $81.5 million. That lost cap space is the difference between this team being really good, and being an absolute monster.
For some context, in the last 4 seasons, despite a new TV deal and an expansion franchise being added to the league, the salary cap has grown only $2 million, due to the pandemic. In 2018-2019, the cap was $79.5 million, where as this year, it's $81.5 million. That's an average of a $500,000 rise in cap per year. For comparison sake, in the previous 4 years to that (2015-2016 to 2018-2019) the cap rose from $71.4 million to $79.5 million, a total of $8.1 million dollars, or $2 million per year (4x the rate it has grown in the last 4 years). $8 million would make an enormous difference to this roster, especially in the goaltending and defensive departments. Dubas was planning on it. The pandemic killed his plan.
Moving forward, the cap is going to continue to increase slowly for the next couple years (unfortunately). As a result, so tough roster moves are going to be neccessary, but that's the reality of the situation we've been left in. That said, I would not panic sell the Big 4, rather, I'd continue to build and tinker around them. Moves I'd make in the case of a first round exit would include...
Traded out / released in FA / money off the cap...
Jake Muzzin ($5.6 million)
Petr Mrazek ($3.8 million)
Alex Kerfoot ($3.5 million)
Justin Holl ($2.0 milliin)
Ilya Mikheyev ($1.7 million)
Phil Kessel ($1.2 million)
- I'd extend Lyubushkin and play him on the third pair with Sandin.
- I'd extend Giordano on team friendly, Spezza type deals, where he can play out the rest of his career at home.
- Liljegren and Sandin should be extended on bridge deals, with the understanding that they will get considerable raises when the cap starts to go up at a regular rate.
- I'd negotiate with Campbell for the sake of extension, however, I'm not paying him like a big time #1. If he wants a lot of money, I let him walk and start over with my goaltending.
Defense core would look like this...
Reilly-Addition
Giordano-Liljegren
Brodie-Lybushkin
Sandin
Forward core would start with...
C: Matthews
C: Tavares
C: Kampft
C: ?
LW: Bunting
LW: Robertson
LW: Blackwell
LW: ?
RW: Marner
RW: Nylander
RW: Engvall
RW?
13th: Simmonds
Essentially, you need 3 forwards from either your system, via trade, or FA, a partner for Rielly and a solution to the goaltending situation. The cap is going up $1.0 million. With a couple raises due (Liljegren, Sandin and Lyubushkin) and Rielly's raise kicking, you're tying up about $4.5-$5.0 million, assuming Giordano starts taking deals near league minimum.
You're going to have some money to add the forwards and goalies you need. Not a ton, but enough to make an impact.
