How Many 40 Year Olds...?

[Flyerfan808]

Recent Jagr signing and what I consider to be unrealistic expectations that he will score at nearly a PPG pace have led me to question the effectiveness of 40 year olds in the NHL.

The question and challenge is to create a list of all NHL players who scored at a PPG pace (or VERY close to it) who were at least 40 years old by the time that season finished.

If someone knows of a website where it is easy to find this information please point me in the right direction also.

I'll start:

Teemu Selanne
Gordie Howe

Feel free to add.

Adam Oates :: 80g 78p age 39
Jean Beliveau :: 70g 76p age 39
John Bucyk :: 77g 83p age 40

HM's:

Brett Hull :: 81g 68p age 39

Click to read more...

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

Johnny Bucyk had some of his best seasons after 35.
Adam Oates score 78 points in 80 games as a 39 year old.

 

[tjcurrie]

Brett Hull scored 25 goals and 68 points in 81 games with the Wings as a 39 year old and 37 goals and 76 points in 82 games the previous season.

 

[Unaffiliated]

Sakic goes from 100 points at 37 to retirement due to injuries. Pretty sure he's on the list if not for the back injury.

 

[seventieslord]

Based on what past players have done at the age of 38-40 in the NHL, I anticipate 0.9 PPG from Jagr this season.

 

[Hardyvan123]

Here is a list of players aged 39-46 (based on Feb 1 of a season) who scored at more than .8 clip during a season.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=goals

A .9 rate would be in the low 70's, not sure if Jagr has enough left in the tank to get more than 65 but he will sure get the playing time.

My guess is that he ends up with 60-65 points but I also wouldn't be surprised if he gets in the mid 70's. a good start is important fro him though as the season progresses his production will drop a bit IMO if ever so slightly.

 

[Hardyvan123]

Just for fun I ran the PPG at .7 or greater which works out to 57.4 points or better in 82 games by players aged 38 and up post lockout

http://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=points

Jagr is in for a tough challenge, it will be very interesting to see how he does.

 

[Flyerfan808]

Thanks for finding this. I was having trouble looking up stats from memory player by player.

I agree it will be interesting to see if Jagr can join this list. I am cautiously optimistic. A lot of different scenarios could happen.

 

[BSHH]

(...) My guess is that he ends up with 60-65 points but I also wouldn't be surprised if he gets in the mid 70's. a good start is important fro him though as the season progresses his production will drop a bit IMO if ever so slightly.

Lidström scored 62 points after a very good start last season. Jagr should try to match this production, overtaking Selänne's 2010/2011 season seems unlikely to me, as well.

Gruß,
BSHH

 

[tjcurrie]

Dino Ciccarelli at age 37 was a 35 goal man for the Lightning.

 

[gifted88]

Dino Ciccarelli at age 37 was a 35 goal man for the Lightning.

Was Gretzky 37 when he had his last 90 point season with the rangers?

Different situations as well, the Flyers minus Jagr are probably considered cup contenders.

 

[Hammer Time]

Here's a piece from Hockey Prospectus on Jagr. Based on his KHL stats, and historical data from players whose career curve is similar to Jagr's (e.g. Marcel Dionne), it projects around 70 points from Jagr, assuming no injuries that shorten his season.

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1008

 

[tjcurrie]

Was Gretzky 37 when he had his last 90 point season with the rangers?

Different situations as well, the Flyers minus Jagr are probably considered cup contenders.

Yes he was.

 

[jepjepjoo]

Here's a piece from Hockey Prospectus on Jagr. Based on his KHL stats, and historical data from players whose career curve is similar to Jagr's (e.g. Marcel Dionne), it projects around 70 points from Jagr, assuming no injuries that shorten his season.

http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1008

"We can answer this question by applying KHL-to-NHL league translations, a concept first explained in great detail in Hockey Prospectus 2010-11. Using players who have previously made the jump, like Alexander Semin, Evgeni Malkin and, more recently, Nikolay Zherdev and Jiri Hudler, we can calculate how much of a player's scoring is statistically likely to drop off due to the increased competition and potentially reduced ice time in the NHL. "

They are comparing developing players to a players who's regressing...

 

[seventieslord]

"We can answer this question by applying KHL-to-NHL league translations, a concept first explained in great detail in Hockey Prospectus 2010-11. Using players who have previously made the jump, like Alexander Semin, Evgeni Malkin and, more recently, Nikolay Zherdev and Jiri Hudler, we can calculate how much of a player's scoring is statistically likely to drop off due to the increased competition and potentially reduced ice time in the NHL. "

They are comparing developing players to a players who's regressing...

I am pretty sure the study goes both ways, as in, players who went from the NHL to the KHL (most of them would be players in decline or in their primes... which, at this case, I'd argue Zherdev and Hudler are too)

 

[Bear of Bad News]

I am pretty sure the study goes both ways, as in, players who went from the NHL to the KHL (most of them would be players in decline or in their primes... which, at this case, I'd argue Zherdev and Hudler are too)

Exactly - I can assure everyone that the VUKOTA developers have taken that into consideration. Iain will likely see this and elaborate at some point.

 

[livewell68]

What's not taken into consideration here is that certain players are more built for the KHL and some for the NHL.

The KHL is a larger ice surface and Jagr's game is more suited for the smaller ice due to his impressive puck protection and cycling skills.

 

[tjcurrie]

What's not taken into consideration here is that certain players are more built for the KHL and some for the NHL.

The KHL is a larger ice surface and Jagr's game is more suited for the smaller ice due to his impressive puck protection and cycling skills.

True ^

Just like if you were to try to translate a player's junior or farm team numbers into NHL numbers. It's impossible, since you cannot come up with an equation to figure out how any player will adjust to a different game.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Just like if you were to try to translate a player's junior or farm team numbers into NHL numbers. It's impossible, since you cannot come up with an equation to figure out how any player will adjust to a different game.

Actually, people have had very good success doing exactly this.

 

[tjcurrie]

Actually, people have had very good success doing exactly this.

But I'm sure there are hundreds of cases where a player coming from one league who's numbers are higher then the next guy's numbers goes in the opposite direction once they hit the bigs. Whether it be coming from juniors, Europe, or the farm.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

But I'm sure there are hundreds of cases where a player coming from one league who's numbers are higher then the next guy's numbers goes in the opposite direction once they hit the bigs. Whether it be coming from juniors, Europe, or the farm.

And there's hundreds of cases where a player's statistics jump up (or down) in year two over year one even though they were in the same league both seasons.

No one's saying that this stuff is easy.