How Kopitar and Doughty's Cap Hits Could Help Us in the Future

[BringTheReign]

I believe it's fair to say that we all would have preferred Kopitar and Doughty had signed contracts with either:

• A lower cap hit (AAV) over 8 years
• A shorter term (perhaps 5 or 6 years) at a similar AAV

Unfortunately, we don't live in a perfect world, and honestly, when you've won Cups, Norris/Selke, and Gold Medals, you dictate rather than negotiate your contract.

I know that many of us are a bit worried about the contracts on the team, especially when our hands are tied instead of being able to take on short-term, bad contracts in exchange for valuable assets for the rebuild. Given the shift we've seen in RFA contracts as well, Kopitar and Doughty's deals could provide a headache moving forward when we have a younger team of up and coming talent.

However, I wanted to throw out there the possibility that Kopitar and Doughty's contracts could actually help us in navigating the hellscape of signing relatively unproven but impactful RFA talent. A team like Toronto had no grizzled, long-tenured, multiple Cup and/or trophy-winning veteran to act as a cap hit ceiling for Marner and Matthews, whereas I'd argue that Boston (McAvoy), Calgary (Tkachuk), and Tampa Bay (Point) did have internal ceilings in the forms of Bergeron, Giordano, and Kucherov/Stamkos. Sure, Tavares was there, but he had just arrived and didn't have the history with the franchise that the guys listed and Kopitar/Doughty do with their teams.

Given that the cap ceiling is going to be going up significantly when the new TV deal kicks in and Seattle joins the league, Kopitar and Doughty's AAVs will still be high, but might actually provide at least a short-term barrier from ballooning post-RFA cap hits for players like Turcotte, Kaliyev, this year's 1st round pick, and dare I dream, Vilardi. Young players are already pushing near $10M AAVs, and it may turn out in our GM's advantage to point at Kopitar at $10m/yr and Doughty at $11M/yr and say, "You can have that cap hit when you go out and win 2 Cups, a couple of Selke's, and a Norris."

Thoughts?

Click to read more...

 

[bouncesonly]

I believe it's fair to say that we all would have preferred Kopitar and Doughty had signed contracts with either:

• A lower cap hit (AAV) over 8 years
• A shorter term (perhaps 5 or 6 years) at a similar AAV

Unfortunately, we don't live in a perfect world, and honestly, when you've won Cups, Norris/Selke, and Gold Medals, you dictate rather than negotiate your contract.

I know that many of us are a bit worried about the contracts on the team, especially when our hands are tied instead of being able to take on short-term, bad contracts in exchange for valuable assets for the rebuild. Given the shift we've seen in RFA contracts as well, Kopitar and Doughty's deals could provide a headache moving forward when we have a younger team of up and coming talent.

However, I wanted to throw out there the possibility that Kopitar and Doughty's contracts could actually help us in navigating the hellscape of signing relatively unproven but impactful RFA talent. A team like Toronto had no grizzled, long-tenured, multiple Cup and/or trophy-winning veteran to act as a cap hit ceiling for Marner and Matthews, whereas I'd argue that Boston (McAvoy), Calgary (Tkachuk), and Tampa Bay (Point) did have internal ceilings in the forms of Bergeron, Giordano, and Kucherov/Stamkos. Sure, Tavares was there, but he had just arrived and didn't have the history with the franchise that the guys listed and Kopitar/Doughty do with their teams.

Given that the cap ceiling is going to be going up significantly when the new TV deal kicks in and Seattle joins the league, Kopitar and Doughty's AAVs will still be high, but might actually provide at least a short-term barrier from ballooning post-RFA cap hits for players like Turcotte, Kaliyev, this year's 1st round pick, and dare I dream, Vilardi. Young players are already pushing near $10M AAVs, and it may turn out in our GM's advantage to point at Kopitar at $10m/yr and Doughty at $11M/yr and say, "You can have that cap hit when you go out and win 2 Cups, a couple of Selke's, and a Norris."

Thoughts?

Sure, and they'll walk to a different team.

 

[BringTheReign]

Sure, and they'll walk to a different team.

I take your point if we're talking about guys moving into UFA, but I'm more getting at RFA years coming out of their ELC.

 

[bouncesonly]

I take your point if we're talking about guys moving into UFA, but I'm more getting at RFA years coming out of their ELC.

Don't you still have to worry about offer sheets? Either way, sentimentality isn't going to keep these kids from being paid.

 

[BringTheReign]

Don't you still have to worry about offer sheets? Either way, sentimentality isn't going to keep these kids from being paid.

Absolutely, but that's at the AAV range where they'd be bumping into Kopitar and Doughty's level, and where the compensation would 4 1st round picks. All I'm hoping for is that their contracts provide an extra incentive for us to get them to sign cheaper bridge deals like Point and Tkachuk rather than deals like Marner or Matthews. At the AAV of Point and Tkachuk, we match any offer sheet happily.

Granted, we'd still be vulnerable to an Aho situation where the term walks them right to free agency (if the player is willing to sign it), but I just thought I saw a pattern overall in Boston, Calgary, and Tampa that might be true for us in a few years. I could be just totally wishing for something that won't happen here haha.