Speculation: How does the '22-'23 season end for St. Louis?

[Stealth JD]

It's the annual prognostication time.

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[STL fan in MN]

The season will end by losing a playoff game. This place will be sad.

 

[The Note]

Lose in the second round.

Edited for clarity

 

[PocketNines]

Beat Nashville round 1, lose to Colorado round 2

 

[Xerloris]

I believe in the talent of this team. Gotta have faith right? We did it every year for 50 years so why not now?

 

[Thallis]

Gonna be spicy and say out Round 1 to Vegas

 

[Blueline2757]

Make playoffs, lose in round 1

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Big parade. I’m convinced could have happened last year if Binny hadn’t gotten hurt. With some luck can happen this year.

 

[Allens Five Hole]

I chose win a round and out because I think it's probably deja vu, losing to Colorado in round 2. But, to me it really just depends on when/if we face Colorado. To me, us and COL are the two clear Western favorites. We will see how the season unfolds but I would bet the Pacific will be relatively down again and that second round Central matchup will for all intents and purposes be the WCF.

 

[Stealth JD]

Same as last year, one round and out, likely to the Avs.

But last year they beat the Mild before bowing in the 2nd. "One round and out" indicates they'll lose in round one. 'One round then out' would be just like last year...a 2nd round loss.

I see them as a wild card and getting dispatched by the higher seed in round 1.

I think we've got the 5th best defense in the division, 2nd best offense, and 4th or 5th best goaltending situation. Special teams will come back down to earth with the losses on the PP (Perron) and PK (Scandella), not to mention Montgomery being swapped with MacTavish. Adds up to a 4th or 5th best club in the wild-card hunt but in need of a shake-up.

 

[Robb_K]

The Blues will have a strong year, finishing 2nd in The Central, to Colorado, and win 2 playoff series, but lose to The Avs in The 2nd Round, unless Binnington plays as well as he did in last season's playoffs, AND The Blues are perfectly healthy at playoff time, AND both Kyrou and Thomas have another breakthrough leap in their games, AND The Blues have added a solid reasonably high-quality defenceman during the season. If all goes right, The Blues should beat The Avs and play in The SCF, and possibly win that series if all goes right. Otherwise, The Finals vs. The Lightning, would be a toss-up, with Binnington hot, and possibly a toss-up with Carolina, but I'd pick The Blues over The Rangers or Florida (IF Binngton is hot). If Binnington is not hot, and The Blues haven't added a high-level D-man, I'd guess that the Eastern Conference team would be favoured. Basically, a lot hinges upon whether Binnington is playing very well, their defence has become more solid, and how much their young players improve.

 

[The Note]

But last year they beat the Mild before bowing in the 2nd. "One round and out" indicates they'll lose in round one. 'One round then out' would be just like last year...a 2nd round loss.

I see them as a wild card and getting dispatched by the higher seed in round 1.

I think we've got the 5th best defense in the division, 2nd best offense, and 4th or 5th best goaltending situation. Special teams will come back down to earth with the losses on the PP (Perron) and PK (Scandella), not to mention Montgomery being swapped with MacTavish. Adds up to a 4th or 5th best club in the wild-card hunt but in need of a shake-up.

Ok fair enough. I think they will win one round then lose the next.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Same as last year, one round and out, likely to the Avs.

They played 2 rounds last year.

The Blues will have a strong year, finishing 2nd in The Central, to Colorado, and win 2 playoff series, but lose to The Avs in The 2nd Round, unless Binnington plays as well as he did in last season's playoffs, AND The Blues are perfectly healthy at playoff time, AND both Kyrou and Thomas have another breakthrough leap in their games, AND The Blues have added a solid reasonably high-quality defenceman during the season. If all goes right, The Blues should beat The Avs and play in The SCF, and possibly win that series if all goes right. Otherwise, The Finals vs. The Lightning, would be a toss-up, with Binnington hot, and possibly a toss-up with Carolina, but I'd pick The Blues over The Rangers or Florida (IF Binngton is hot). If Binnington is not hot, and The Blues haven't added a high-level D-man, I'd guess that the Eastern Conference team would be favoured. Basically, a lot hinges upon whether Binnington is playing very well, their defence has become more solid, and how much their young players improve.

Robb, your post says win 2 rounds and lose in the 2nd round. I think you mean win 1 round and lose in the 2nd, since facing Colorado in the WCF is an improbable scenario.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

Everyone who voted needs to change their vote to win the Cup.

Manifest what we want.

If enough players on the team believe that they will bow out early in the playoffs, then they will bow out early.

Focus on the Cup and it shall be ours again.

 

[TheDizee]

lose in 1st round

 

[Xerloris]

lose in 1st round

If only we would have had Chucky Sideburns! f***ing Armstrong always ruining shit.

 

[Brian39]

I won't be surprised with any outcome between (and including) 'win the Cup' and 'miss the playoffs by 7 points.'

I'm very confident that we will have a top 10 offense in the league and fairly confident that it will be in or around the top 5 in goals scored. Last year Florida scored 25 more goals than the 2nd place team, but 2-5 were separated by only 5 goals. Then there was another 17 goal drop off to 6th place. Ultimately, we finished 4th and were 36 goals ahead of 10th place. If we miss the top 5, I expect us to be just a few goals back of the 5thplace team and 1-2 dozen goals ahead of 10th.

But I have absolutely no clue where we will finish in goals against. We were 11th last year, but Husso was an absolute stud and many of the underlying numbers suggest that we bled chances. Goaltending is a huge question mark and that was unavoidable. There wasn't a single goalie available this summer (Husso included) that would have changed that. The PK was elite, but Scandella was a large part of it. If Binner returns to form as a guy who can provide slightly-above-average starting goaltending then I think this team is top 3 in the West. If he's the goalie of last year, we could finish 6th in the division.

Ultimately, I think he is good enough to get us into the playoffs and I see us winning a round or two.

 

[PocketNines]

As a data point, the entire league is dropping its average save percentage. Last year it was .907 which is the lowest in 15 years. There were only five guys who were .920 or better and only two were better than .922. If Binnington puts up a .915 on the season that would've finished 13th/14th last year which is top quartile. Only a few years ago that would have been league average.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

While it's a small chance of happening, I always root for the parade.

 

[Brian39]

As a data point, the entire league is dropping its average save percentage. Last year it was .907 which is the lowest in 15 years. There were only five guys who were .920 or better and only two were better than .922. If Binnington puts up a .915 on the season that would've finished 13th/14th last year which is top quartile. Only a few years ago that would have been league average.

Only 26 goalies in the NHL started 41+ games last season. Looking at that sample as 'starters' you are left with just 10 starters who put up a .915 or better. 17 of the 26 were at .910 or better. And again, this is if you set the bar low enough to include guys in a clear tandem situation. I don't think most people consider a guy a starter simply because he starts in half of his team's games. What happens if you set the bar to 50 starts? Only 11 guys managed to post a .910 or better over 50+ starts. If you bump that filter up to 55+ starts, you are left with just 7 guys who hit the .910+ mark.

Barring injury, Binner is going to play in 50+ games if he is providing .910+ goaltending. I'd wager that he tops 55 games if he's looking like his old self. He played 50 of 71 in 2019/20 even while Allen played at a .927 in the backup role. That's a 57.7 start pace. He played 41 of 56 in 2020/21 when Husso struggled as a rookie backup. That's a 60 start pace. If Binner is playing at a .910+ then I don't see how Greiss could play well enough to keep a healthy Binner under 55 starts.

I think a lot of people's expectations in goaltending has lagged behind the reality. A 50-60 start guy at .910 or better is a genuine top 10 starter in the league in today's NHL.

On a related note, Shesterkin putting up a .935 over 52 starts last season was ludicrous in the context of the league's other goalies. Especially when you see that his backup was at .898 through 28 starts. Even crazier that the backup who was so badly outperformed was given a 3 year deal to be a starter or 1A behind the defending Cup champs.

 

[Xerloris]

Only 26 goalies in the NHL started 41+ games last season. Looking at that sample as 'starters' you are left with just 10 starters who put up a .915 or better. 17 of the 26 were at .910 or better. And again, this is if you set the bar low enough to include guys in a clear tandem situation. I don't think most people consider a guy a starter simply because he starts in half of his team's games. What happens if you set the bar to 50 starts? Only 11 guys managed to post a .910 or better over 50+ starts. If you bump that filter up to 55+ starts, you are left with just 7 guys who hit the .910+ mark.

Barring injury, Binner is going to play in 50+ games if he is providing .910+ goaltending. I'd wager that he tops 55 games if he's looking like his old self. He played 50 of 71 in 2019/20 even while Allen played at a .927 in the backup role. That's a 57.7 start pace. He played 41 of 56 in 2020/21 when Husso struggled as a rookie backup. That's a 60 start pace. If Binner is playing at a .910+ then I don't see how Greiss could play well enough to keep a healthy Binner under 55 starts.

I think a lot of people's expectations in goaltending has lagged behind the reality. A 50-60 start guy at .910 or better is a genuine top 10 starter in the league in today's NHL.

On a related note, Shesterkin putting up a .935 over 52 starts last season was ludicrous in the context of the league's other goalies. Especially when you see that his backup was at .898 through 28 starts. Even crazier that the backup who was so badly outperformed was given a 3 year deal to be a starter or 1A behind the defending Cup champs.

Most people assume that if your goalie is not top 1 or 2 in the league then they are not a legit starter. It's sad really.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Blues take the West. Lose to Rod Brind'Amour's 'Canes in the Final and I get a decent haul from Vegas.

 

[Celtic Note]

Only 26 goalies in the NHL started 41+ games last season. Looking at that sample as 'starters' you are left with just 10 starters who put up a .915 or better. 17 of the 26 were at .910 or better. And again, this is if you set the bar low enough to include guys in a clear tandem situation. I don't think most people consider a guy a starter simply because he starts in half of his team's games. What happens if you set the bar to 50 starts? Only 11 guys managed to post a .910 or better over 50+ starts. If you bump that filter up to 55+ starts, you are left with just 7 guys who hit the .910+ mark.

Barring injury, Binner is going to play in 50+ games if he is providing .910+ goaltending. I'd wager that he tops 55 games if he's looking like his old self. He played 50 of 71 in 2019/20 even while Allen played at a .927 in the backup role. That's a 57.7 start pace. He played 41 of 56 in 2020/21 when Husso struggled as a rookie backup. That's a 60 start pace. If Binner is playing at a .910+ then I don't see how Greiss could play well enough to keep a healthy Binner under 55 starts.

I think a lot of people's expectations in goaltending has lagged behind the reality. A 50-60 start guy at .910 or better is a genuine top 10 starter in the league in today's NHL.

On a related note, Shesterkin putting up a .935 over 52 starts last season was ludicrous in the context of the league's other goalies. Especially when you see that his backup was at .898 through 28 starts. Even crazier that the backup who was so badly outperformed was given a 3 year deal to be a starter or 1A behind the defending Cup champs.

I think if you get a guy in the 9”teens”, you should be pretty happy.

 

[Falco Lombardi]

I’ll say out in round 1 as that’s the safest option

 

[AjaxManifesto]

I think we win 2 rounds and then lose in the Conf Final...either to the Avs or VGK...two teams I now despise.