Seravalli: Horvat Contract Discussion

[jfhabs]

Bare minimum is starting with 6 ... realistically something in the 7.5M range. He plays the tough minute and still in his prime.

 

[Luck 6]

And Boeser is a significantly worse player than Horvat.

Horvat will start with an $8 is my guess. Upper $7s maybe.

I don't see how he can ask for this when Miller just signed for 8mil x 7 years. Miller has been our best forward for the majority of his time in Vancouver, Horvat has definitely been a full tier below.. Miller's 7 year deal kicks in at age 30, where as Horvat's deal kicks in at age 28. As such, I could see him getting an extra year, and maybe a bit more than he would otherwise be worth, but I can't see how he gets the same as Miller.

I'm thinking low 7s to high 6s.

 

[jfhabs]

Well, I mean, I'm kind of thinking they will end at a number that starts with a 6, so using 5 as a starting point isn't crazy...

He'll be 28 to start next season, and I would think an 8 year deal is not out of the question.

Age 28: 8mil
Age 29: 8mil
Age 30: 8mil
Age 31: 6mil
Age 32: 5mil
Age 33: 4.5mil
Age 34: 4mil
Age 35: 4mil

8 years at 5.94mil, as a starting point.

They're probably settle on something like this:

Age 28: 8mil
Age 29: 8mil
Age 30: 8mil
Age 31: 8mil
Age 32: 7mil
Age 33: 5mil
Age 34: 5mil
Age 35: 5mil

8 years at 6.75mil

Miller set the bar for the Canucks by taking an 8mil cap hit over 7 years. Horvat isn't worth the same, he's more of a 50-60 point guy. So 7mil x 6 years, or 6.75mil at 8 years, or something in that range is what I expect him to get.

I don't think it's crazy, but it's risky to piss off one of your good player. It's one of the things I don't understand with some GM, they'll give big contracts to UFA and play hardball with 'star' players who bled for the team. Realistically there's no way he's going at 5. something even 5.99 on the market, why bother?

I don't see how he can ask for this when Miller just signed for 8mil x 7 years. Miller has been our best forward for the majority of his time in Vancouver, Horvat has definitely been a full tier below.. Miller's 7 year deal kicks in at age 30, where as Horvat's deal kicks in at age 28. As such, I could see him getting an extra year, and maybe a bit more than he would otherwise be worth, but I can't see how he gets the same as Miller.

I'm thinking low 7s to high 6s.

8 years at 7M, same dollar amount to Miller, but an extra year would make sense.

 

[McJedi]

I don't see how he can ask for this when Miller just signed for 8mil x 7 years. Miller has been our best forward for the majority of his time in Vancouver, Horvat has definitely been a full tier below.. Miller's 7 year deal kicks in at age 30, where as Horvat's deal kicks in at age 28. As such, I could see him getting an extra year, and maybe a bit more than he would otherwise be worth, but I can't see how he gets the same as Miller.

I'm thinking low 7s to high 6s.

If Boeser got $6.65mm, Horvat is going to get quite a bit more. He can also bounce as a UFA and find plenty of suitors as a top six C. He’d do better than Kadri did given the age difference. He’ll start with an $8 on the market.

 

[biturbo19]

I mean, it's a negotiation. It's kind of adversarial by nature, with two parties trying to get the better deal for themselves.

Starting with a "5" might be insulting, but who knows the context of that, if it's even true. Maybe they started at his current cap number as an entry point. Is he really a much better player than he was when he signed that last deal? Obviously he's going to get much, much more than that in the end. But you've gotta come in with an opening bid, and there's no sense coming in with a really high opening bid that gives you no room to move. Just like i'm sure on the other end of things, Horvat's agent's initial ask would probably be "insulting" in the other direction.

 

[JoemAvs]

If he's available then Newhook + 1st would be a decent base for Horvat extended.

Vancouver would probably prefer to target a young RHD though unless Horvat doesn't want to extend with teams who can offer a RHD with value comparable to Newhook.

The Avs in no way shape or form can afford to add another giant longterm deal for a forward unless they really want to kill themselves capwise (yeah you might be able to wiggle yourself by a hair under the cap for a year or so if you bridge all of your young guys but it completely kills you going forward).
Atleast not unless Nuke (or atleast Lehkonen) is going the other way which is very unlikely. Completely gutting our D could work as well but would be even dumber.
Its Mikko, Newhook, Compher, Meyers or a rental at center for the foreseeable future.

Its ridiculous that Avs fans still think the Avs can or should make moves like that.
Once Mac is under contract, the forward group (atleast the top6) is set when it comes to bigger names until Mikko is up for a contract atleast.
If you wanted to make a move like that, you would have to let Nuke walk for it to make sense.

We might not even be able to afford Newhook if he pans out and he probably will not cost half of what Horvat will cost.

 

[Leafs87]

Always sign the player you want to pay less first. After the Canucks paid Miller, the negotiations with Horvat will be harder

 

[Cogburn]

To this whole thread:

No.

 

[EP to Kuzmenko]

Realistically, Miller probably should be a wing if they re-sign Horvat long term, but they need to find a competent 3C in that instance, and it’s been a problem for awhile.

Honestly we have the depth at wing now to roll with EP - Miller - Horvat down the middle and give more ice time to the line playing better each game. our 4th line is heavy and defensively responsible. They are a roll playing line now.

Bruce was rolling his lines last season based on who was playing better. Players having good games got more ice time than players having bad ones. For that to work, having 2 first line centres and a high end 2nd line centre(who nearly produced at a first line rate) is ideal.

 

[Buresflyingelbow]

6.75 should be the number that gets it done

 

[SurferBroChad]

there is no drama, this is from the canucks twitter crowd that constantly whines about everything.

there are zero canucks insiders right now outside of maybe iain macIntyre(long time team shill) and because of this the rumors coming out since the new regime took over are mostly false

miller was 100% gone according to friedman, same with boeser.

now that they are signed, horvat is mad and leaving.

everyones disgruntled and divided! then boom, contract

stop supporting tabloid clickbait

 

[Regal]

Honestly we have the depth at wing now to roll with EP - Miller - Horvat down the middle and give more ice time to the line playing better each game. our 4th line is heavy and defensively responsible. They are a roll playing line now.

Bruce was rolling his lines last season based on who was playing better. Players having good games got more ice time than players having bad ones. For that to work, having 2 first line centres and a high end 2nd line centre(who nearly produced at a first line rate) is ideal.

The depth is decent, assuming Kuzmenko works out, Podkolzin can continue to progress, Mikheyev can keep producing like last year, and/or Hoglander can get over his sophomore slump. I still think there’s question marks about spreading it too thin with the three line set-up to get the most out of the three centers. But even if it works out this year, Miller’s cap goes up next year, Kuzmenko will have to be paid next summer, Hoglander will need a new deal, and the year after, so will Podz. The defense still needs addressing as well, then Pettersson will get a raise in two years. With the cap, I’m not sure if it’s feasible long term to spend on three centers making that much.

 

[Three On Zero]

Boeser isn’t good and he’s getting $6.65mm per.

Horvat isn’t worth less than Boeser.

256 points in 324 games played isn’t good now? Horvat should only be paid marginally more than Boeser

 

[StickShift]

No other media/twitter fan base among the NHL creates as much chatter and speculation than the Vancouver Canucks twitterverse.

It’s wholly unsurprising that they are spinning up this sort of narrative. They need a pearl of a story to get clicks and attention. Damned be the truth.

 

[LBCANUCK]

And Boeser is a significantly worse player than Horvat.

Horvat will start with an $8 is my guess. Upper $7s maybe.

Horvat is my favourite Canuck but if it starts with an 8 then management had a stroke. If they can get it in high 6s they did a good job but it will probably be something like 7 mill x 8 years

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

Horvat is a great but inconsistent player. He can go stretches with little impact and then puts up 17 goals in his last 24 games.

 

[EP to Kuzmenko]

The depth is decent, assuming Kuzmenko works out, Podkolzin can continue to progress, Mikheyev can keep producing like last year, and/or Hoglander can get over his sophomore slump. I still think there’s question marks about spreading it too thin with the three line set-up to get the most out of the three centers. But even if it works out this year, Miller’s cap goes up next year, Kuzmenko will have to be paid next summer, Hoglander will need a new deal, and the year after, so will Podz. The defense still needs addressing as well, then Pettersson will get a raise in two years. With the cap, I’m not sure if it’s feasible long term to spend on three centers making that much.

It is. Having 3 top 50 centres in the league gives us options going forwards. Miller can bounce between wing and centre. Our 3rd line doesnt need to have the depth at wing, but it does at centre. Hogger won't get a huge raise, Podk is 2 seasons from one. we have some solid potential coming up in the wings for cheap ELC's as well. Not matter what, we are fine on wingers in our top 6 with Boeser, Podk, Mikheyev, Garland, maybe we find a way to drop pearson and dickinson and keep Kuzmenko. Hogger is fine in a 3rd line role. We have at least a few seasons where we can run Miller, Horvat, EP down the middle.

 

[Canuck86]

Horvat is my favourite Canuck but if it starts with an 8 then management had a stroke. If they can get it in high 6s they did a good job but it will probably be something like 7 mill x 8 years

Agreed, Horvat is a good player but for me the abosute max I would like to see him get is 7m...He had 30G last year largely do to his prime spot on the PP, but when I see others like Kevin Hayes or Coutorier get 7m plus it likely means Horvat gets more than just 7m flat.

No way should Horvat get the same as 99pt JT Miller, that would be silly for management and cap strap them going forward in my opinion

 

[BCNate]

This how negotiations work, not sure how this is thread worthy. Canucks offer 8 yrs in the high 5's, Horvat asks for high 7's, they agree in the 6.75-7 on an 8 year deal.

 

[krutovsdonut]

interesting to see horvat go to the media so early. he's obviously more engaged than i would have expected and this seems like a warning shot.

 

[kanucks25]

I think 6.5M is fair but he'll probably get 7M 'cause captain and whatnot.

 

[BCNate]

If Boeser got $6.65mm, Horvat is going to get quite a bit more. He can also bounce as a UFA and find plenty of suitors as a top six C. He’d do better than Kadri did given the age difference. He’ll start with an $8 on the market.

Boeser's deal, and Horvat's are not really comparable assuming Horvat's is long term.

Boeser got 6.7 for 25,26,27 YO seasons. I think its fair to expect that he is the same or better throughout.

If the Canucks are looking at Horvat on an 8 year deal, that take him to 36 YO.

Horvat on an 8ry/56(ish) million deal probably makes a lot of sense.

I don't think Horvat's ceiling is anywhere near what Kadri just put up last year.

I agree that someone would pay 7 yrs 8 mill for Horvat as a UFA, he is a good 1B/2C.

 

[Connor McConnor]

Boeser's deal, and Horvat's are not really comparable assuming Horvat's is long term.

Boeser got 6.7 for 25,26,27 YO seasons. I think its fair to expect that he is the same or better throughout.

If the Canucks are looking at Horvat on an 8 year deal, that take him to 36 YO.

Horvat on an 8ry/56(ish) million deal probably makes a lot of sense.

I don't think Horvat's ceiling is anywhere near what Kadri just put up last year.

I agree that someone would pay 7 yrs 8 mill for Horvat as a UFA, he is a good 1B/2C.

Horvat and 1 don't fit. He's never been/never will be a 1C. He's a 2C. His closest comp would be someone like RNH who also plays "the tough minutes" and is used as a swiss army knife for the team. Both guys regularly play down the lineup with lesser talent and have similar production. I get that Bo is a few years younger and needs a raise but for comparison sake RNH got $5.125 x 8 years.

Canucks would regret signing him to a $7+ x 8 year deal but it seems like the NHL is back to handing out massive contracts with term so he probably can get it somewhere.

 

[PajamaBoy]

Horvat and 1 don't fit. He's never been/never will be a 1C. He's a 2C. His closest comp would be someone like RNH who also plays "the tough minutes" and is used as a swiss army knife for the team. Both guys regularly play down the lineup with lesser talent and have similar production. I get that Bo is a few years younger and needs a raise but for comparison sake RNH got $5.125 x 8 years.

Canucks would regret signing him to a $7+ x 8 year deal but it seems like the NHL is back to handing out massive contracts with term so he probably can get it somewhere.

RNH? Lol hahaha

 

[mattydamon]

I love Bo but don't think he's worth much/any more than $7m a year. I'd be stoked on 6.5 but have a feeling it's going to be higher.