Speculation: Hoglander Mega Thread: Caps, Pens and CBJ interested

[Johnsie19]

Being completely honest, that's not a very accurate depiction of what Hoglander is. He's worth more than i think a lot of Penguins fans are valuing him at...but he's really not a Top-6 Forward. He's played there, but his best stretches of play have come outside the Top-6. He's actually kind of a boat anchor when he's on one of the top two lines...unless it's a very North-South Center like Horvat as the linchpin. He just can't keep up with real creative East-West puck possessing play.



On the other hand, everyone's gung-ho on Marcus Pettersson, but he's probably a pure rental for Vancouver. He's going to get a stupid contract in the summer. He's going to have $6M+ offers thrown at him, and i'm really not sure he's worth that even with the rising cap. I don't think Vancouver are in a position to be signing him to that sort of deal in any case.

Not sure that Hoglander assessment is accurate. I agree hes not a bonafide top 6 but the beauty of his game especially if he comes out of this current stretch improved defensively is he can easily play bottom 6 because he has a motor and is aggressive. There's no reason why he can't play east-west, edgework and skating at a strength of his game. He was unreal last yr. And yes part of that was due a regression to the mean.

 

[Empoleon8771]

What in the blue heck would the Canucks want with any of Acciari/Nieto/Poolparty? They all suck, very hard. It does absolutely nothing for the Canucks, to swap Hoglander for a much worse player...and a very meh lottery ticket.

Why would any team trade more for Hoglander with his current play this year, though?

He's signed to a 3x3 extension, is currently having a horrid season and the coach very clearly doesn't like him. What incentive is there for any team to pay anything more than table scraps for him?

 

[biturbo19]

If his value was based on the last 16 games alone, he'd have negative value. My point is that he doesn't have close to the value of a 2nd+ when he's playing as badly as he is right now.

I'd be willing to go as high as what Gurgs posted above, a 3rd plus a depth forward. I may even be swayed to include Poulin as that depth forward, another young guy that Vancouver could stash on their AHL team for now and see if he develops into anything. He's also someone that JR drafted and the current regime doesn't seem all that high on. But anything more than that for Hoglander seems silly and the Penguins would be far better off finding another Tomasino for a 4th than bothering with Hoglander.

I could definitely see interest from Ruthervin in Poulin, but this sort of deal just really doesn't make any sense at all for Vancouver. Despite being in the coach's doghouse at the moment, i don't think they're looking to just dump Hoglander. He's going to be used as a trade chip to get a defenceman, because he does still have a lot to offer. There are teams interested.



That said...the focus is always on Pettersson here because he's the obvious "rental" candidate to move. But i still can't help but wonder if there isn't something that makes more sense in trying to take on Graves. Because the contracts and liability of that kind of offsets better. He's also exactly the sort of defenceman that this coaching staff seem to like, and be able to work with.

 

[Ryder71]

I could definitely see interest from Ruthervin in Poulin, but this sort of deal just really doesn't make any sense at all for Vancouver. Despite being in the coach's doghouse at the moment, i don't think they're looking to just dump Hoglander. He's going to be used as a trade chip to get a defenceman, because he does still have a lot to offer. There are teams interested.



That said...the focus is always on Pettersson here because he's the obvious "rental" candidate to move. But i still can't help but wonder if there isn't something that makes more sense in trying to take on Graves. Because the contracts and liability of that kind of offsets better. He's also exactly the sort of defenceman that this coaching staff seem to like, and be able to work with.

If you want Poulin that sounds fantastic! Let's make a deal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[biturbo19]

Not sure that Hoglander assessment is accurate. I agree hes not a bonafide top 6 but the beauty of his game especially if he comes out of this current stretch improved defensively is he can easily play bottom 6 because he has a motor and is aggressive. There's no reason why he can't play east-west, edgework and skating at a strength of his game. He was unreal last yr. And yes part of that was due a regression to the mean.

That's exactly what i'm saying though. He's not a real Top-6 Forward. He's actually just a very good Bottom-6 Winger who can generate a lot of his own offense from lesser minutes and almost exclusively at even strength, and without great linemates. He's actually better in that role. In the Top-6, he's a drag. He can't see the ice well enough to keep up there and ends up being disruptive in a negative way, rather than a positive one when he's just playing a simple opportunistic forechecking bottom-6 role.

Why would any team trade more for Hoglander with his current play this year, though?

He's signed to a 3x3 extension, is currently having a horrid season and the coach very clearly doesn't like him. What incentive is there for any team to pay anything more than table scraps for him?

I'm not sure where his value ultimately falls at the moment, in the midst of one of his cold streaks and being in the coach's doghouse. But there's simply no reason to trade him, if table scraps are all that's being offered. The Canucks don't need table scraps. They don't need to get rid of Hoglander, because he's still a very useful little player. The reason to move him...would be that he's a piece that is expendable at a position of depth, and may be falling out of favour with the coach. It's not about just "dumping" him at all though. They're not going to be trading him just to trade him. They'll be moving him to improve the team, by helping to patch the defence corps that is in absolute shambles right now.

 

[SEALBound]

Hoglander was a 2nd rounder who is 7th in goals and 10th in points in his draft class.

He's an everyday NHLer with top 6 upside. Literally been a top 6 player for stretches and produced decently well. He's 23 yrs old. That is worth a lot more than a 3rd or 4th. His value is a high 2nd. Maybe 2nd plus.

Nieto doesn't offer the Canucks any value.

Resigning Marcus would potentially be good but you aren't paying for that. You're paying for what he is.

Essentially 2 2nds in value for a defensive 2nd pairing dman rental is a good offer. Could someone beat that? maybe, if they do so be it. Much rather offer 1st + Hog + for the likes of Rasmus Andesson or Bo Byram.

So, I would like to point out that you contradict yourself in this post.

The Penguins are supposed to pay for Hoglander's "potential", not what he is right now, and Vancouver should only pay for what Pettersson is now, not the potential of being a long-term Top 4 LD. Did I read that right?

Nieto offers a bit of value in that he's in the mold of what would be useful for Tocchet's bottom 6 style. Nieto isn't nearly as valuable as Hoglander 1:1 obviously but given the role and needs out of a 4LW, I would say Nieto likely fills that better than Hoglander at the moment.

With regard to your last line, I do think 2 2nds is likely fair value for Pettersson. Whether or not Hoglander+2nd is an equivalent is hard to tell right now. I do not think Calgary nor Buffalo would do that for either Andersson or Byram.

 

[Gurglesons]

What in the blue heck would the Canucks want with any of Acciari/Nieto/Poolparty? They all suck, very hard. It does absolutely nothing for the Canucks, to swap Hoglander for a much worse player...and a very meh lottery ticket.

I assume the same thing they wanted with Desharnais / Forbort / etc. Players that "play the game the right way".

 

[CanadasTeam99]

This guy has almost zero value lol

I still remember getting sh** on a few months ago when I talked about him shooting 2x his career shooting% and I did not like his deal.

 

[belair]

That's exactly what i'm saying though. He's not a real Top-6 Forward. He's actually just a very good Bottom-6 Winger who can generate a lot of his own offense from lesser minutes and almost exclusively at even strength, and without great linemates. He's actually better in that role. In the Top-6, he's a drag. He can't see the ice well enough to keep up there and ends up being disruptive in a negative way, rather than a positive one when he's just playing a simple opportunistic forechecking bottom-6 role.




I'm not sure where his value ultimately falls at the moment, in the midst of one of his cold streaks and being in the coach's doghouse. But there's simply no reason to trade him, if table scraps are all that's being offered. The Canucks don't need table scraps. They don't need to get rid of Hoglander, because he's still a very useful little player. The reason to move him...would be that he's a piece that is expendable at a position of depth, and may be falling out of favour with the coach. It's not about just "dumping" him at all though. They're not going to be trading him just to trade him. They'll be moving him to improve the team, by helping to patch the defence corps that is in absolute shambles right now.

The main reason to trade him today would be to offset the salary of a player the Canucks intend to keep beyond this season. It's hard to see any team seeing this player as a positive asset knowing there are three additional years remaining on a contract that has yet to kick in--one that he currently isn't worth.

 

[Johnsie19]

So, I would like to point out that you contradict yourself in this post.

The Penguins are supposed to pay for Hoglander's "potential", not what he is right now, and Vancouver should only pay for what Pettersson is now, not the potential of being a long-term Top 4 LD. Did I read that right?

Nieto offers a bit of value in that he's in the mold of what would be useful for Tocchet's bottom 6 style. Nieto isn't nearly as valuable as Hoglander 1:1 obviously but given the role and needs out of a 4LW, I would say Nieto likely fills that better than Hoglander at the moment.

With regard to your last line, I do think 2 2nds is likely fair value for Pettersson. Whether or not Hoglander+2nd is an equivalent is hard to tell right now. I do not think Calgary nor Buffalo would do that for either Andersson or Byram.

I don't see the contradiction.

Hoglander is a 23 yr old developing fwd. He's also signed at 3 x 3 starting next yr.

Pettersson isn't potentially a no. 1 dman he is what he is which is a really good shutdown dman. He's also a FA at the end of the yr. Likely he signs a long term deal. Is he worth more now or when under contract? Probably similar. The way a player can be worth more is if they're signed for more yrs on a team friendly deal. For instance if Pettersson had a yr or two more on his current deal he'd be worth more.

Ya I mean Nieto could fit I don't know 4th liners that well but it's not a big need I don't think but could work.

I agree on Byram or Andersson I was saying if Pettersson costs more than 2 2nds I'd rather pay 1st+ Hog + prospect for one of them. They have term or team protection so trading assets for that makes more sense.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Hoglander for Zadorov

 

[biturbo19]

I assume the same thing they wanted with Desharnais / Forbort / etc. Players that "play the game the right way".

Acciari i could almost sort of see...if he wasn't on such a bloated stupid contract. The other two though, don't even really fit that "plays the game the right way" mold. Nieto is filler at best and Puljujarvi is a scrub who has always been kind of crap defensively because he skates in big enormous loops like the Ever Given without a hint of vision of the ice or hockey IQ. He can move at speed...but his change of direction ability and awareness on the ice are practically nil.

 

[biturbo19]

The main reason to trade him today would be to offset the salary of a player the Canucks intend to keep beyond this season. It's hard to see any team seeing this player as a positive asset knowing there are three additional years remaining on a contract that has yet to kick in--one that he currently isn't worth.

I mean, yeah...part of moving him would obviously be to offset a reallocation of cap toward the defence because they've got plenty of cheaper options coming at Forward who are ready right now. Along with other guys who are continuing to step up.

But it's not really one of those cases where they need to unload his salary. It's not some massive onerous salary either. That new deal pays him pretty commensurate with what he is as a player. A Bottom-6 energy player who can pot you 15G+ and ~35ish points from the Bottom-6, entirely at even strength. He's not doing it right now, but the type of scorer he is, tends to be very streaky and he could very easily go on a run where he nets 5G in the next dozen games and be right back on track.

 

[Viking10]

Be a shame to move Hoglander but Tocchet has little patience… how about we just wait till the team is healthy, then play with the lines a bit, then make wait for TDL before making any rash decisions and not overpay or giveaway anyone…see where the team is, they playing like shit at home always behind in shots, team has a long way to go to contend hold onto assets in 2025 imo!

Learn from last season GM Alvin, you gave up a shit ton of assets for 2 players you let walk in FA…don’t do that again!

get someone under team controlled or signed with term or agreed to an extension if acquired!

 

[BCNate]

Be a shame to move Hoglander but Tocchet has little patience… how about we just wait till the team is healthy, then play with the lines a bit, then make wait for TDL before making any rash decisions and not overpay or giveaway anyone…see where the team is, they playing like shit at home always behind in shots, team has a long way to go to contend hold onto assets in 2025 imo!

Learn from last season GM Alvin, you gave up a shit ton of assets for 2 players you let walk in FA…don’t do that again!

get someone under team controlled or signed with term or agreed to an extension if acquired!

We gave up the 28th pick, a player we didn't want a B and a C prospect for Lindholm. 3rd in 2026 and a 5th for Zadorov. Hardly a shit ton to give up for a playoff run.

 

[2014nyr]

this is exactly the type of player the rangers should have at the top of their list - at least as far as more marginal moves to infuse the current roster composition with skillsets that would amplify what's largely in place. i'd hope drury would have a ton of interest here, though it's not a deal i'd be willing to part with any high end assets, and this is a market i could see drawing a very surprising return - in either direction. at a reasonable cost though, i'd be a buyer.

 

[Johnsie19]

That's exactly what i'm saying though. He's not a real Top-6 Forward. He's actually just a very good Bottom-6 Winger who can generate a lot of his own offense from lesser minutes and almost exclusively at even strength, and without great linemates. He's actually better in that role. In the Top-6, he's a drag. He can't see the ice well enough to keep up there and ends up being disruptive in a negative way, rather than a positive one when he's just playing a simple opportunistic forechecking bottom-6 role.

If he was a bonafide 23 yr old top 6 winger he wouldn't be available for a rental. He's a lottery ticket. He has a decent chance to be a top 6 fwd, the beauty of his profile is he can be a really effective bottom 6 player too. Every team wants offense from the bottom of their lineup.

 

[Shark Finn]

Höglander.. Mega Thread? Damn. Things sure are quiet on the trade rumor front.

 

[biturbo19]

If he was a bonafide 23 yr old top 6 winger he wouldn't be available for a rental. He's a lottery ticket. He has a decent chance to be a top 6 fwd, the beauty of his profile is he can be a really effective bottom 6 player too. Every team wants offense from the bottom of their lineup.

I mean, he's played in the Top-6, but he's never really been particularly more productive there, than he is on the 4th line. He also just visibly doesn't mesh well with most other Top-6 players. Like...Bo Horvat is really the only true Top-6 Center i've seen Hoglander have any semblance of chemistry with. Probably largely because he also plays a fairly opportunistic, quick-strike game that thrives off the rush and disruption.


There's value in that skillset for sure. It's desirable to have guys in the Bottom-6 who can produce offense there at even strength, from lesser minutes, and without great linemates. But it puts a pretty hard cap on his "upside".

With his age and experience level, he's much closer to a "known quantity" than a lottery ticket at this point. Particularly when it comes to the shortcomings that hold down his "ceiling" offensively. At his age, he's not suddenly going to start seeing the ice massively better, for example. Or get appreciably faster in large areas. It's extremely likely that "he is what he is" and will continue to be a bit of an awkward "offensive Bottom-6 player" who doesn't add anything on Special Teams.

 

[dbaz]

Hopefully the canucks dont go for something stupid like karlsson at 50%

 

[DeltaSwede]

Hopefully the canucks dont go for something stupid like karlsson at 50%

I just got the chills.. I can hear Jim Benning whispering in the wind.

 

[Johnsie19]

I mean, he's played in the Top-6, but he's never really been particularly more productive there, than he is on the 4th line. He also just visibly doesn't mesh well with most other Top-6 players. Like...Bo Horvat is really the only true Top-6 Center i've seen Hoglander have any semblance of chemistry with. Probably largely because he also plays a fairly opportunistic, quick-strike game that thrives off the rush and disruption.


There's value in that skillset for sure. It's desirable to have guys in the Bottom-6 who can produce offense there at even strength, from lesser minutes, and without great linemates. But it puts a pretty hard cap on his "upside".

With his age and experience level, he's much closer to a "known quantity" than a lottery ticket at this point. Particularly when it comes to the shortcomings that hold down his "ceiling" offensively. At his age, he's not suddenly going to start seeing the ice massively better, for example. Or get appreciably faster in large areas. It's extremely likely that "he is what he is" and will continue to be a bit of an awkward "offensive Bottom-6 player" who doesn't add anything on Special Teams.

I think you might be onto something with the idea that he did well with Horvat because they created off the rush. Tocchet is a coach who doesn't like to create off the rush. And that goes back to my point about opportunity and fit. There is no doubt the guy is supremely skilled, very silky, excellent edgework and quickness, also aggressive and willing to go in the corners.

When you consider that he has had success under a few different coaches and that his development was initially rushed and he was put back in the AHL for a time and came back vastly improved, together with the tools mentioned above, I don't think he's done improving.

If you are saying his ceiling is 24 even strength goals ya sure. And again if this is what he is he's still a very valuable player especially I think in a team where the coach shows him some love and trust. It's not like he's a lost cause defensively he's much improved in fact.