HFBoards Top 32 Wingers - #20

[Lavar Ball]

Hey guys, appreciate all who voted on the polls and again to LT who started them out. With the season starting on Friday and votes on a steady decline, I'm gonna stop here at #20. If someone wants to pick up for me here as I did for LT feel free.

Rank	Player	Votes	Team	GP	G	A	P
1	Nikita Kucherov	80/97 (93%)		47	25	44	69
2	Kirill Kaprizov	113/225 (50%)		81	47	61	108
3	Mitch Marner	46/226 (20%)		72	35	62	97
4	Artemi Panarin	58/171 (34%)		75	22	74	96
5	Brad Marchand	47/184 (26%)		70	32	48	80
6	Jonathan Huberdeau	41/153 (27%)		80	30	85	115
7	Johnny Gaudreau	75/198 (38%)		82	40	75	115
8	Mikko Rantanen	68/143 (48%)		75	36	56	92
9	Patrick Kane	43/109 (39%)		78	26	66	92
10	Alex Ovechkin	53/112 (47%)		77	50	40	90
11	David Pastrnak	52/78 (67%)		72	40	37	77
12	Matthew Tkachuk	40/91 (44%)		82	42	62	104
13	Kyle Connor	31/99 (31%)		79	47	46	93
14	Mark Stone	30/99 (30%)		37	9	21	30
15	Jason Robertson	25/77 (33%)		74	41	38	79
16	Filip Forsberg	20/70 (29%)		69	42	42	84
17	Jake Guentzel	21/70 (30%)		76	40	44	84
18	Andrei Svechnikov	12/64 (19%)		78	30	39	69
19	Gabriel Landeskog	10/47 (21%)		51	30	29	59
20

To Add:
Clayton Keller - ARI
Timo Meier - SJS
Claude Giroux - OTT
Matt Duchene - NSH
Bryan Rust - PIT
Blake Wheeler - WPG
Drake Batherson - OTT
David Perron - DET
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - EDM
Cole Caufield - MTL
Conor Garland - VAN
Andrew Mangiapane - CGY

Click to read more...

 

[stl76]

I'm pretty surprised at the result so far. What is the argument for Ehlers over DeBrincat/Nylander/Buchnevich/Tarasenko/Kyrou/Fiala/Kreider? Seriously, what am I missing here?

 

[RapidKnight]

I'm pretty surprised at the result so far. What is the argument for Ehlers over DeBrincat/Nylander/Buchnevich/Tarasenko/Kyrou/Fiala/Kreider? Seriously, what am I missing here?

He receives almost no PP time. Top 10 winger in even strength PPG playing with underwhelming linemates. Draws lots of penalties. Leads Winnipeg forwards in CF and CA. He’s the complete package. (over last 3 season)

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

I would add Meier or Mangiapane, and add Hall to the potentials list.

 

[banks]

DeBrincat, Ehlers, and Nylander are all pretty close here.

Tarasenko, Bratt, and Kyrou should be pretty close behind.

Add Keller, Girouz, Wheeler.

 

[Buck Naked]

I'm pretty surprised at the result so far. What is the argument for Ehlers over DeBrincat/Nylander/Buchnevich/Tarasenko/Kyrou/Fiala/Kreider? Seriously, what am I missing here?

What's the argument for Landeskog over any of those?

 

[Voight]

Ehlers getting more votes than Nylander seems weird.

 

[amnesiac]

DeBrincat, Ehlers, and Nylander are all pretty close here.

Tarasenko, Bratt, and Kyrou should be pretty close behind.

seconded... I would say E.Kane is also close behind. Much more physical than Kyrou and Bratt who never hit.

add: Duchene, Meier

to add: Bertuzzi, Wilson

 

[um]

Man what a bargain contract the Avs got with Landeskog.

I'll go DeBrincat here.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

Kreider scored 52 goals and doesn't crack the top 20

Damn there's a lot of really good wingers in the league

 

[bobholly39]

Kreider scored 52 goals and doesn't crack the top 20

Damn there's a lot of really good wingers in the league

Yeah....no question he was top 20 and then some last year, but that production came totally out of left field. I think everyone is just assuming he gets nowhere near that again. If he does score 50 again, or even close, he'll certainly jump a lot of ranks.

I voted Laine here. I think he's going to explode this year

 

[pegcity]

A reminder to non-Jets fans. Ehlers is better than Connor.

Connor is clueless defensively, Ehlers is not. Ehlers production has been negatively impacted by Paul Maurice's deployment. Connor has been playing with Wheeler and Scheif for most of his career; Top line minutes and PP1.

 

[amnesiac]

Kreider scored 52 goals and doesn't crack the top 20

Damn there's a lot of really good wingers in the league

him and Kadri had career years, its not like they do it on a consistent basis.... at all.

 

[biturbo19]

Yeah....no question he was top 20 and then some last year, but that production came totally out of left field. I think everyone is just assuming he gets nowhere near that again. If he does score 50 again, or even close, he'll certainly jump a lot of ranks.

I voted Laine here. I think he's going to explode this year

Yeah. I think that's what holds Kreider back here. Obviously if he can post another season that somewhat replicates that, he'll skyrocket up the rankings in fan perception. But it's one of those seasons that's a bit hard to trust as his "typical" results. I wouldn't say it's completely out of left field, as he's shown he's entirely capable of hovering around that 30G mark, and we all know he has one of the most dominant physical skillsets in the league. But 30G doesn't get you on this list just yet, so if that's more his "normal", he'll have to wait a minute.

Takes time and some repeatability for perceptions to really adjust. The other guys in contention at this point, have multiple huge seasons under their belts for the most part, and a pretty high degree of confidence that it's their typical sort of productivity and results.

 

[jonlin]

DeBrincat, Ehlers, and Nylander are all pretty close here.

Tarasenko, Bratt, and Kyrou should be pretty close behind.

Add Keller, Girouz, Wheeler.

I`d put Laine up there too. Last season he was PPG in Columbus, with no 1C to play with. Now he has Gaudreau and looks much stronger and faster.

I voted Laine here. I think he's going to explode this year

Same. Ppl seem to forget he had PPG last year, without any real help. Now with Gaudreau I expect he will be PPG+ and score 40+ if healthy. Columbus will have a good PP with Laine, Voracek, Gaudreau, Jenner and Werenski.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

Yeah....no question he was top 20 and then some last year, but that production came totally out of left field. I think everyone is just assuming he gets nowhere near that again. If he does score 50 again, or even close, he'll certainly jump a lot of ranks.

I voted Laine here. I think he's going to explode this year

him and Kadri had career years, its not like they do it on a consistent basis.... at all.

Well yeah, I wasnt being sarcastic or anything. Just an observation.

5 years ago no one in the league even scored 50 goals in a 82 game season.

 

[biturbo19]

By the way, is there like...a different Tarasenko here that i'm not aware of? Or are people just like, not voting for a borderline Top-10 Winger @ #20 still?

 

[stl76]

He receives almost no PP time. Top 10 winger in even strength PPG playing with underwhelming linemates. Draws lots of penalties. Leads Winnipeg forwards in CF and CA. He’s the complete package. (over last 3 season)

Yeah, extremely unconvincing argument IMO. Tarasenko, Fiala, Bratt, Kyrou, and Buchnevich all score a hell of a lot more 5v5. Frankly, all of them are in a completely different tier offensively than Ehlers, but Tarasenko and Fiala especially so. If you want to focus on defense, Buchnevich is an entire tier above Ehlers, while still being as good or better offensively. I believe Ehlers most common linemates were Scheifele, Copp, Stastny, Dubois, and Connor...it's not like he was stuck with a bunch of scrubs.

I really don't think there is a reasonable argument for Ehlers over Tarasenko, Buchnevich, or Fiala.

By the way, is there like...a different Tarasenko here that i'm not aware of? Or are people just like, not voting for a borderline Top-10 Winger @ #20 still?

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. People bring up even strength scoring as if Tarasenko didn't just finish 10th in 5v5 points and 18th in even strength points among all forwards last season.

 

[biturbo19]

Yeah, extremely unconvincing argument IMO. Tarasenko, Fiala, Bratt, Kyrou, and Buchnevich all score a hell of a lot more 5v5. Frankly, all of them are in a completely different tier offensively than Ehlers, but Tarasenko and Fiala especially so. If you want to focus on defense, Buchnevich is an entire tier above Ehlers, while still being as good or better offensively. I believe Ehlers most common linemates were Scheifele, Copp, Stastny, Dubois, and Connor...it's not like he was stuck with a bunch of scrubs.

I really don't think there is a reasonable argument for Ehlers over Tarasenko, Buchnevich, or Fiala.


I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. People bring up even strength scoring as if Tarasenko didn't just finish 10th in 5v5 points and 18th in even strength points among all forwards last season.

Like, did people not realize that Tank came back healthy with a vengeance last year? I'd kinda get it going into the previous season where his health was a concern. But i think he put all that to bed pretty emphatically.

 

[stl76]

Like, did people not realize that Tank came back healthy with a vengeance last year? I'd kinda get it going into the previous season where his health was a concern. But i think he put all that to bed pretty emphatically.

I'm curious to see how this turns out:

Better Winger: Ehlers vs Tarasenko

Straight forward question: who is the top winger?

forums.hfboards.com

 

[RapidKnight]

Yeah, extremely unconvincing argument IMO. Tarasenko, Fiala, Bratt, Kyrou, and Buchnevich all score a hell of a lot more 5v5. Frankly, all of them are in a completely different tier offensively than Ehlers, but Tarasenko and Fiala especially so. If you want to focus on defense, Buchnevich is an entire tier above Ehlers, while still being as good or better offensively. I believe Ehlers most common linemates were Scheifele, Copp, Stastny, Dubois, and Connor...it's not like he was stuck with a bunch of scrubs.

I really don't think there is a reasonable argument for Ehlers over Tarasenko, Buchnevich, or Fiala.


I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. People bring up even strength scoring as if Tarasenko didn't just finish 10th in 5v5 points and 18th in even strength points among all forwards last season.

Are you joking? Ehlers is not in different tier offensively. I can see you’re only looking at exclusively last year. The previous 3 years Ehlers was well ahead. The gap has closed since then but it’s not wise to evaluate such a small sample size where shooting percentages can fluctuate significantly. Combining the last 3 total seasons they’re certainly in the same tier.

	P/60	TOI	SF/60	OISH%
Tarasenko	2.76	13:10	29.64	11.14
Fiala	2.66	12:26	32.42	10.32
Ehlers	2.59	14:23	33.91	9.49
Buchnevich	2.38	13:34	32.06	11.02

Ehlers edges them out because he plays additional minutes, generates more chances, had less puck luck (especially this season), has a much larger sample then Tarasenko, played the least games in the highest scoring season, and has a better penalty differential then the other three combined.

 

[stl76]

Are you joking? Ehlers is not in different tier offensively. I can see you’re only looking at exclusively last year. The previous 3 years Ehlers was well ahead. The gap has closed since then but it’s not wise to evaluate such a small sample size where shooting percentages can fluctuate significantly. Combining the last 3 total seasons they’re certainly in the same tier.

	P/60	TOI	SF/60	OISH%
Tarasenko	2.76	13:10	29.64	11.14
Fiala	2.66	12:26	32.42	10.32
Ehlers	2.59	14:23	33.91	9.49
Buchnevich	2.38	13:34	32.06	11.02

Ehlers edges them out because he plays additional minutes, generates more chances, had less puck luck (especially this season), has a much larger sample then Tarasenko, played the least games in the highest scoring season, and has a better penalty differential then the other three combined.

You can't seem to settle on a single reasonable point of why Ehlers is better.

First it was that Ehlers is a top 10 even strength producing winger in terms of raw point totals over your chosen time frame, which is misleading for several reasons. For one, Tarasenko, who scores at a much higher rate 5v5, was injured for a large stretch of those games. Second, Buchnevich didn't break out offensively until two years ago. Third, Fiala scored exactly 4 less 5v5 points over your three year span in 16 less games played (...and if you want to talk about linemates, check out who Fiala has been playing with cause yikes). Then your other reason why Ehlers is better was that he plays with subpar linemates (at the very least a highly questionable assertion, and again, check out who Fiala has been producing with) and corsi (lol). Now you seem to have settled on penalty differential...and you ask if I am joking?

Even over your chosen 3 year sample, Ehlers scores at a lower rate 5v5. However, there is also this sizable chunk of time in the NHL called "NOT 5v5" where a lot of goals and assists happen to be scored. And the two most recent years may be a better indication of future performance than 2019-20. So let's look at some scoring numbers in different situations over different time frames and see if any tiers/trends start to emerge:

	3 year all situation pts/60	3 year 5v5 pts/60	2 year all situation pts/60	2 year 5v5 pts/60
Tarasenko	3.44	2.76	3.42	2.8
Fiala	3.28	2.66	3.27	2.67
Buchnevich	2.92	2.38	3.17	2.57
Ehlers	3.09	2.59	3.17	2.51

Worth stating again, so I am just going to copy paste this from above to be sure you have a chance to read it, "If you want to focus on defense, Buchnevich is an entire tier above Ehlers, while still being as good or better offensively." If you're worried about sample size, you could always compare Ehler's career to Tarasenko...where Tarasenko blows Ehlers out of the f***ing water lol

Am I joking? No, I am very serious that your argument that Ehlers scores at a lesser rate 5v5 but draw penalties and has good corsi numbers is an extremely unconvincing argument. Ehlers is a tier Below Fiala and especially Tarasenko offensively and Buchnevich is as good offensively while being WAY better defensively.

 

[Evergreen]

I went with Tarasenko.

 

[RapidKnight]

You can't seem to settle on a single reasonable point of why Ehlers is better.

First it was that Ehlers is a top 10 even strength producing winger in terms of raw point totals over your chosen time frame, which is misleading for several reasons. For one, Tarasenko, who scores at a much higher rate 5v5, was injured for a large stretch of those games. Second, Buchnevich didn't break out offensively until two years ago. Third, Fiala scored exactly 4 less 5v5 points over your three year span in 16 less games played (...and if you want to talk about linemates, check out who Fiala has been playing with cause yikes). Then your other reason why Ehlers is better was that he plays with subpar linemates (at the very least a highly questionable assertion, and again, check out who Fiala has been producing with) and corsi (lol). Now you seem to have settled on penalty differential...and you ask if I am joking?

Even over your chosen 3 year sample, Ehlers scores at a lower rate 5v5. However, there is also this sizable chunk of time in the NHL called "NOT 5v5" where a lot of goals and assists happen to be scored. And the two most recent years may be a better indication of future performance than 2019-20. So let's look at some scoring numbers in different situations over different time frames and see if any tiers/trends start to emerge:

	3 year all situation pts/60	3 year 5v5 pts/60	2 year all situation pts/60	2 year 5v5 pts/60
Tarasenko	3.44	2.76	3.42	2.8
Fiala	3.28	2.66	3.27	2.67
Buchnevich	2.92	2.38	3.17	2.57
Ehlers	3.09	2.59	3.17	2.51

Worth stating again, so I am just going to copy paste this from above to be sure you have a chance to read it, "If you want to focus on defense, Buchnevich is an entire tier above Ehlers, while still being as good or better offensively." If you're worried about sample size, you could always compare Ehler's career to Tarasenko...where Tarasenko blows Ehlers out of the f***ing water lol

Am I joking? No, I am very serious that your argument that Ehlers scores at a lesser rate 5v5 but draw penalties and has good corsi numbers is an extremely unconvincing argument. Ehlers is a tier Below Fiala and especially Tarasenko offensively and Buchnevich is as good offensively while being WAY better defensively.

Am I supposed to repeat myself over and over? I’ll try to sum it up better.

I’m using a 3 year sample which includes the entirety of your sample because it has a higher predictive validity. Ehlers is close in raw numbers but the following reasons push him over the top: 1) He plays significant 5v5 minutes which hurts his rate (not significantly but notably) 2) He hasn’t had a lot puck luck the past 3 seasons, much less for your sample. These factors are easily enough to make him the best 5v5 player. If you’re not convinced the +17 penalty differential per season which equates to 3-4 powerplay goals would also do it. Also, according to your very own argument Ehlers’ linemates are much worse than Tarasenko and Buchnevich’s. Fiala’s are the worst. Don’t even getting me started with the 2 season all points/60. Despite Ehlers having everything working against: additional minutes, poor on-ice shooting percentage, and especially quite possibly the worse PP to 5v5 ice time ratios in the league. The last fact makes it completely irrelevant. Buchnevich being better offensively can not be backed up with evidence whatsoever.

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

Hey guys, appreciate all who voted on the polls and again to LT who started them out. With the season starting on Friday and votes on a steady decline, I'm gonna stop here at #20. If someone wants to pick up for me here as I did for LT feel free.

Rank	Player	Votes	Team	GP	G	A	P
1	Nikita Kucherov	80/97 (93%)		47	25	44	69
2	Kirill Kaprizov	113/225 (50%)		81	47	61	108
3	Mitch Marner	46/226 (20%)		72	35	62	97
4	Artemi Panarin	58/171 (34%)		75	22	74	96
5	Brad Marchand	47/184 (26%)		70	32	48	80
6	Jonathan Huberdeau	41/153 (27%)		80	30	85	115
7	Johnny Gaudreau	75/198 (38%)		82	40	75	115
8	Mikko Rantanen	68/143 (48%)		75	36	56	92
9	Patrick Kane	43/109 (39%)		78	26	66	92
10	Alex Ovechkin	53/112 (47%)		77	50	40	90
11	David Pastrnak	52/78 (67%)		72	40	37	77
12	Matthew Tkachuk	40/91 (44%)		82	42	62	104
13	Kyle Connor	31/99 (31%)		79	47	46	93
14	Mark Stone	30/99 (30%)		37	9	21	30
15	Jason Robertson	25/77 (33%)		74	41	38	79
16	Filip Forsberg	20/70 (29%)		69	42	42	84
17	Jake Guentzel	21/70 (30%)		76	40	44	84
18	Andrei Svechnikov	12/64 (19%)		78	30	39	69
19	Gabriel Landeskog	10/47 (21%)		51	30	29	59
20

To Add:
Clayton Keller - ARI
Timo Meier - SJS
Claude Giroux - OTT
Matt Duchene - NSH
Bryan Rust - PIT
Blake Wheeler - WPG
Drake Batherson - OTT
David Perron - DET
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - EDM
Cole Caufield - MTL
Conor Garland - VAN
Andrew Mangiapane - CGY

Add Bertuzzi

Past 77 games : 35 goals, 37 assist while being a tremendous pest. Significantly better than Garland