In light of FishManSam's series of poll's [find the latest one here] I noticed that based on leaf fan's self analysis, which is for obvious reasons biased to some degree, the leaf seem to have the degree of ability to ice a very good blue-line, but not the right combination of personal. Which has lead to years of looking good on paper but not on the ice.
Using the definitions used the poll's
What the poll said?
A strong playoff team will be able to ice...
1A - 1A
2A - 2A
3A - 3A
With a few spots able to move up or down 1 ranking.
According to the general leafs fan base, our team's defensive core is composed of...
- Cody Franson 2B
- Mark Fraser 3A
- Jake Gardiner 1B
- Carl Gunnarsson 2B
- Korbinian Holzer 3A
- Mike Komisarek 3B
- Michael Kostka 3B
- John-Michael Liles 2B
- Dion Phaneuf 1A
If you map these out based PURELY on ranking with no regard to chemistry, who plays what side.
Phaneuf 1A - Gardiner 1B
Franson 2B - Gunnarsson 2B
Liles 2B - Fraser/Holzer 3A
Comparing that to the ideal playoff defence.
PAR = On Par
x UNDER = Number of rankings below par
x OVER = Number of rankings above par
PAR - 1 UNDER
1 UNDER - 1 UNDER
1 OVER - PAR
Which seems to imply our defence actually isn't that far off from being a playoff level defence.
So What?
Looking at the leafs options going forward on the blue-line a few safe assumptions can be made
- Phaneuf will play the 1st pairing, and for the last few years has been playing Left.
- Our two best D this season [Franson and Phaneuf] both need a shut down anchor to play with, so will not play together
- Gardiner will be playing again with the leafs soon, if not this year, then next.
- Gardiner is also an offence first player, who though he could play with Phaneuf or Franson, can use his offensive ability much more freely if also paired with a shut down guy.
Using the above 4 points as strict laws, Phaneuf, Gardiner and Franson will all play on the leafs but will all need to play on different pairings. Ordering them by their value in the poll.
Phaneuf 1A - xxxx
xxxx - Gardiner 1B
Franson 2B - xxxx
With Phaneuf and Franson usually playing left and Gardiner usually playing right, this is how the back bone of our pairs will look.
I propose if we can find a defensive defensemen to match with each of these pairs, then we would have a reasonable playoff level defence.
Luckily we already have 1 of the 3 needed in Fraser. Fraser has shown great chemistry with Franson and plays a very RC brand of hockey. Pairing Fraser with Franson we have...
PAR - xxxx
xxxx - 1 OVER
1 OVER - PAR
Leaving us with the structure of our future blue line. Which has two holes in it.
- 1A-1B Shut Down D
- 2A-2B Shut Down D
Looking at the remaining batch...
- Carl Gunnarsson 2B
- Korbinian Holzer 3A
- Mike Komisarek 3B
- Michael Kostka 3B
- John-Michael Liles 2B
Then filtering out the 3A/B options since we aren't in need of any more third pairing guys....
- Carl Gunnarsson 2B
- John-Michael Liles 2B
We're left with Gunnarsson and JML. Gunnarsson is a fine two-way defensemen and JML is a fine puck mover, but neither are the pieces that we need.
Conclusion
With the additions of a 1st pairing shut down D, 2nd pairing shut down D, sending Holzer to the minors as an emergency call up, letting Kostka go through waivers, Komisarek bought out at the end of the year, and Liles and Gunnarsson traded. We have a high level playoff calibre defence.
Last edited:
