Growing to be a Playoff Performer

[conFABulator]

To date I have primarily resided on the Leafs board, but more and more I find myself coming here and being very impressed with the topics and quality of discussion.

My topic spawned from a pretty obvious Leaf origin, however it is not my intent to have this become a Leaf or Marner thread. To the mods, if it goes that way, feel free to shut this down.

My question for the group: Is there any precedent case and evidence for the statement that "players can develop to be playoff performers"?

To me, this is not as simple as looking only at an improvement in personal playoff performance (call this the Hyman) or at leading a team to greater playoff success (call this the Yzerman). I think context is critically important in this analysis.

YZERMAN
In this case Stevie Y he always produced points at a high level in the playoffs. Even though it was greater than a PPG, it was not at nearly the same rate as he produced in the regular season. Perhaps of greater relevance is that the drop in his scoring was much greater than the league-wide drop from regular season to playoffs.

However, as we all know. The Yzerman-led (captained) Red Wings went on to win three cups and his legacy is one of clutch performance and big stage leadership. This was pre-salary cap and the Wings ultimately augmented, supported and surrounded Yzerman with Shanahan, Lidstrom, Larionov, Fedorov, Fetisov, Konstantinos, Vernon, Kozlov, Holmstrom, Murphy, Datsyuk, Hull, Robitaille, Chelios, and Hasek over the years.

The obvious question is did Yzerman improve or did the cast around him get better through acquisition and retention of homegrown talent? This is not a knock on Yzerman, but he is touted as the poster child for playoff performance and the need for patience in waiting for that performance to emerge.

HYMAN
Another, more recent case study might be Zack Hyman. Not a cup winner yet, but there is obviously some playoff success to point to. Hyman has become another Mr. Clutch leading the playoffs in goals this past year and scoring some big ones.

In Hyman's Leaf years, he scored five goals in 32 games. That's a 13-goal pace across 82 games. That seems pretty abysmal, but we have to point out that he scored at a 20-goal regular season pace during his Leaf tenure. That's about a 30% drop and much greater than the league wide percentage (zero to single digit) decrease at that time.

As an Oiler Hyman has scored at a 46 goal pace in the playoffs and a 41-goal regular season pace. Once again, this is against low single digit drop in league wide scoring differential from regular season to playoffs. We have to consider the McDavid effect here as well of course.

So, what do we think? Knowing that players have to up their games come playoffs, is this a developable skill? Are there examples of players that used to have regular season success, but no playoff success that eventually (or quickly) learned how to up their playoff game to match or exceed their regular season game. Can a player improve their ability to deliver in the playoffs? In big games? Is there any evidence to support the position?

Hyman and Yzerman are examples of two players that are described as clutch and playoff performers even though they were not described that way early on in their careers, in fact they were described as the opposite. However, I am not sure that Yzerman or Hyman provide the supporting data for this actually happening.

Are there other examples? Thoughts?

Click to read more...

 

[DearDiary]

Players who conserve themselves over the season have much more room to show better increases in play when they go at 100%.

It's 100% attitude in not just effort, but showing less respect for your opponent, especially around the net. Because something important is on the line than just standings.

So yes, players can grow to be playoff performers by changing their mindset in how they approach being competitive.

 

[conFABulator]

Players who conserve themselves over the season have much more room to show better increases in play when they go at 100%.

It's 100% attitude in not just effort, but showing less respect for your opponent, especially around the net. Because something important is on the line than just standings.

So yes, players can grow to be playoff performers by changing their mindset in how they approach being competitive.

Perhaps I should clarify, I will update original post also.

I think we all know that players have to "up their game" to be effective in the post season. You have articulated ways in which and reasons why "games are upped".

My actual question was: knowing that player a have to up their games come playoffs, is this a developable skill? Are there examples of players that used to have regular season success, but no playoff success that eventually (or quickly) learned how to up their playoff game to match or exceed their regular season game.

Hyman and Yzerman are examples of two players that are described as clutch and playoff performers even though they were not described that way early on in their careers, in fact they were described as the opposite.

 

[njdevils1982]

To date I have primarily resided on the Leafs board, but more and more I find myself coming here and being very impressed with the topics and quality of discussion.

My topic spawned from a pretty obvious Leaf origin, however it is not my intent to have this become a Leaf or Marner thread. To the mods, if it goes that way, feel free to shut this down.

My question for the group: Is there any precedent case and evidence for the statement that "players can develop to be playoff performers"?

To me, this is not as simple as looking only at an improvement in personal playoff performance (call this the Hyman) or at leading a team to greater playoff success (call this the Yzerman). I think context is critically important in this analysis.

YZERMAN
In this case Stevie Y he always produced points at a high level in the playoffs. Even though it was greater than a PPG, it was not at nearly the same rate as he produced in the regular season. Perhaps of greater relevance is that the drop in his scoring was much greater than the league-wide drop from regular season to playoffs.

However, as we all know. The Yzerman-led (captained) Red Wings went on to win three cups and his legacy is one of clutch performance and big stage leadership. This was pre-salary cap and the Wings ultimately augmented, supported and surrounded Yzerman with Shanahan, Lidstrom, Larionov, Fedorov, Fetisov, Konstantinos, Vernon, Kozlov, Holmstrom, Murphy, Datsyuk, Hull, Robitaille, Chelios, and Hasek over the years.

The obvious question is did Yzerman improve or did the cast around him get better through acquisition and retention of homegrown talent? This is not a knock on Yzerman, but he is touted as the poster child for playoff performance and the need for patience in waiting for that performance to emerge.

HYMAN
Another, more recent case study might be Zack Hyman. Not a cup winner yet, but there is obviously some playoff success to point to. Hyman has become another Mr. Clutch leading the playoffs in goals this past year and scoring some big ones.

In Hyman's Leaf years, he scored five goals in 32 games. That's a 13-goal pace across 82 games. That seems pretty abysmal, but we have to point out that he scored at a 20-goal regular season pace during his Leaf tenure. That's about a 30% drop and much greater than the league wide percentage (zero to single digit) decrease at that time.

As an Oiler Hyman has scored at a 46 goal pace in the playoffs and a 41-goal regular season pace. Once again, this is against low single digit drop in league wide scoring differential from regular season to playoffs. We have to consider the McDavid effect here as well of course.

So, what do we think? Knowing that players have to up their games come playoffs, is this a developable skill? Are there examples of players that used to have regular season success, but no playoff success that eventually (or quickly) learned how to up their playoff game to match or exceed their regular season game. Can a player improve their ability to deliver in the playoffs? In big games? Is there any evidence to support the position?

Hyman and Yzerman are examples of two players that are described as clutch and playoff performers even though they were not described that way early on in their careers, in fact they were described as the opposite. However, I am not sure that Yzerman or Hyman provide the supporting data for this actually happening.

Are there other examples? Thoughts?

"We have to consider the McDavid effect here as well of course."

///

you could have left it at that. there is no other reason.

 

[Stive Morgan]

Artturi Lehkonen had 9 pts in his first 33 playoff games, and now has 31 in his last 38, although that's probably more due to playing on Colorado as opposed to Montreal than anything else. He's definitely found his "clutch" gear since 2020 though. He has like 3 series winning goals in the last 3 years.

 

[Letsdothis]

McDavid actually struggled in his first playoff run during his sophomore MVP season, you could tell he was visibly rattled by playoff physicality. He spent half of that Anaheim series on his ass and only had 9 points in 13 games.

He has 108 points in his next 61 playoff games so he clearly figured it out.

 

[conFABulator]

Artturi Lehkonen had 9 pts in his first 33 playoff games, and now has 31 in his last 38, although that's probably more due to playing on Colorado as opposed to Montreal than anything else. He's definitely found his "clutch" gear since 2020 though. He has like 3 series winning goals in the last 3 years.

I suspect your Colorado angle might be the answer. His regular season PPG doubled from Montreal to Colorado, his playoff performance did have a bit of a relative bounce. This might be more a case of how a player can grow their game when given the opportunity to play on a better, deeper team or in a better situation, linemates-wise.

Clutch goals is an interesting wrinkle. It's hard to compare that to regular season because the definition clutch differs greatly I would imagine and OT is a different beast in regular season, so we can't use that as a reliable point of comparison.

 

[Our Lady Peace]

Chris Kreider has played on numerous contending Rangers squads

From 2012 to 2020, his statline as shows in the playoffs:

GP - 80
G - 24
A - 15
P - 39
P/PG = 0.49

From 2022 to 2024, with the same goal total in nearly half the games:

GP - 43
G - 24
A - 13
P - 37
P/PG = 0.86

I understand the NHL scoring has increased as well as the offensive talent the Rangers boast now. He seems to be more of an offensive threat now just watching him and refining his finishing touch around the net. Much like Zach Hyman

I believe Kreider had some wild playoff SHG stat which I heard not too long ago. Can't recall

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I attribute all of these to coaching changes.

I could go indepth with a ton of detail, but I don't think anyone is interested.


There are some coaches who are fine in the regular season because they coach a rigid system that they never deviate from. And then there are other coaches who FEAST on that by devising counters to that system, and get their star players more time and space, and open looks.

Most of the historical "playoff choke artists" played with those rigid systems coaches. And when a player "broke out", they were with a more adaptive coach.

McDavid actually struggled in his first playoff run during his sophomore MVP season, you could tell he was visibly rattled by playoff physicality. He spent half of that Anaheim series on his ass and only had 9 points in 13 games.

He has 108 points in his next 61 playoff games so he clearly figured it out.

Yes, McDavid struggled in the playoffs when coached by TMac because he let the other teams absolutely smother him.

 

[conFABulator]

Chris Kreider has played on numerous contending Rangers squads

From 2012 to 2020, his statline as shows in the playoffs:

GP - 80
G - 24
A - 15
P - 39
P/PG = 0.49

From 2022 to 2024, with the same goal total in nearly half the games:

GP - 43
G - 24
A - 13
P - 37
P/PG = 0.86

I understand the NHL scoring has increased as well as the offensive talent the Rangers boast now. He seems to be more of an offensive threat now just watching him and refining his finishing touch around the net. Much like Zach Hyman

I believe Kreider had some wild playoff SHG stat which I heard not too long ago. Can't recall

Thanks for the add, but is this more a case of a player's all around game improving. You cite his regular season stats form his first eight years and then his playoff stats from his three most recent seasons, which have been his best seasons.

Is this just a guy getting better and/or having a better team around him and seeing a bump in both regular season and playoff?

 

[conFABulator]

I attribute all of these to coaching changes.

I could go indepth with a ton of detail, but I don't think anyone is interested.


There are some coaches who are fine in the regular season because they coach a rigid system that they never deviate from. And then there are other coaches who FEAST on that by devising counters to that system, and get their star players more time and space, and open looks.

Most of the historical "playoff choke artists" played with those rigid systems coaches. And when a player "broke out", they were with a more adaptive coach.




Yes, McDavid struggled in the playoffs when coached by TMac because he let the other teams absolutely smother him.

This is an interesting perspective and, if I understand you correctly suggests that players CAN become better playoff performers even if they were at one point considered not be strong in the post season. Your theory is that these players did it because they had coaches that allowed or encouraged it through their systems and approach.

 

[Our Lady Peace]

Thanks for the add, but is this more a case of a player's all around game improving. You cite his regular season stats form his first eight years and then his playoff stats from his three most recent seasons, which have been his best seasons.

Is this just a guy getting better and/or having a better team around him and seeing a bump in both regular season and playoff?

I'd say a bit of both having a better supporting cast but also how he's legitimately become a much better finisher. Regular season and playoffs. Defensively I can't accurately comment, apologies there haha

Fox and Panarin both have been around since 2019. Buchnevich also departed in 2021 before Kreider went off in the regular season and playoffs during the 2021-22 season. Opened up prime real estate at LW for Kreider himself. Could be a case of a player getting an opportunity and running with it

 

[conFABulator]

I'd say a bit of both having a better supporting cast but also how he's legitimately become a much better finisher. Regular season and playoffs. Defensively I can't accurately comment, apologies there haha

Fox and Panarin both have been around since 2019. Buchnevich also departed in 2021 before Kreider went off in the regular season and playoffs during the 2021-22 season. Opened up prime real estate at LW for Kreider himself. Could be a case of a player getting an opportunity and running with it

Interesting. I will run the numbers and see if his playoff game has improved more than his regular season game by the stated timeframes.

At quick glance it looks like as he improved his performance is happened fairly equally in both playoffs and regular season.

I am looking for guys, like Marner, that have under delivered in the playoffs based on the regular season bar they had set and then at some point raised their playoff performance to the point where there was no drop off or even an increase.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

Soft, weak, fragile and heartless is exposed even more so during the playoffs.

 

[conFABulator]

Soft, weak, fragile and heartless is exposed even more so during the playoffs.

Well, this is the point really. Can players change THOSE attributes? Is there any example of a guy we thought was all those things, someone who produced in the regular season and never brought it in the post season because they were too soft and then one year they toughened up? They learned what it took?

 

[Pablo El Perro]

Well, this is the point really. Can players change THOSE attributes? Is there any example of a guy we thought was all those things, someone who produced in the regular season and never brought it in the post season because they were too soft and then one year they toughened up? They learned what it took?

For current players, Barkov might be a good example. But, as said before, it might be the result of a different coach, system, and players around him.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

I think Auston and Mitch are just scared of taking contact or any sort of confrontation with other grown men. They gotta be some of the softest most heartless playoff performers in recent history , which is fine , the guys make like 12 million , winning a little bit more is the least of their worries they are good and don't need to change for anybody , be yourself boys , don't let people force you to be what you aren't!

 

[conFABulator]

I think Auston and Mitch are just scared of taking contact or any sort of confrontation with other grown men. They gotta be some of the softest most heartless playoff performers in recent history , which is fine , the guys make like 12 million , winning a little bit more is the least of their worries they are good and don't need to change for anybody , be yourself boys , don't let people force you to be what you aren't!

I think Auston and Mitch are two completely different players and the broad categorization you make above is not at all an informed one.

In the regular season Matthews was 93rd in the league for hits by a forward and ahead of many guys I am sure you would not describe as scared. He was ahead of all of top goal scorers including Hyman and Reinhart and well ahead of guys like Kadri and Gallagher, are they scared too? In the playoffs, we know he played hurt, but he was 5th in hits per game among forwards. He was also the third highest forward in blocked shots in the regular season. I am not sure what you are basing your position on, be it doesn't appear to be fact-based or informed.

As I said, I don't want this to turn into a Leafs thread, so maybe leave your thinly-veiled Leaf bashing to the thousands of other threads where that happens on here.

As for Marner, he is softer that Matthews and he appears to be softer in the playoffs than he is in the regular season or at least the same while others get tougher and stronger.

My question remains is can that change in a player? Can they learn to sacrifice? What it takes to win the big games? Or do you either have this or not by the time you get to the NHL. Barkov came up as an example, was he ever considered too soft for the playoffs or did he just not produce points in the early years?

 

[Pablo El Perro]

I think Auston and Mitch are two complete different players and the broad categorization you make above is not at all an informed one.

Matthews was 93rd in the league for hits by forward and ahead of many guys I am sure you would not describe as scared. He was ahead of all of top goal scorers including Hyman and Reinhart and well ahead of guys like Kadri and Gallagher, are they scared too? He was also third among forwards in blocked shorts. I am not sure what you are basing your position on, be it doesn't appear to be fact-based or informed.

As I said, I don't want this to turn into a Leafs thread, so maybe leave your veiled bashing to the thousands of other threads where that happens on here.

As for Marner, he is softer that Matthews and he appears to be softer in the playoffs than he is in the regular season or at least the same while others get tougher and stronger.

My question remains is can that change in a player? Can they learn to sacrifice? What it takes to win the big games? Or do you either have this or not by the time you get to the NHL. Barkov came up as an example, was he ever considered too soft for the playoffs or did he just not produce points in the early years?

Based on my eye test, soft is the wrong word for Barkov's early playoff career. His points were a bit meh, 20 in 26 games, he has 38 in 45 games the last 2 years. So, not a significant change.The bigger change is he was losing a lot of puck battles that he wins in the regular season, and has won them the last couple years. So, I'd say it's more not getting overwhelmed by the intensity of the playoffs. You can call that soft vs. hard I s'pose.

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

Well, this is the point really. Can players change THOSE attributes? Is there any example of a guy we thought was all those things, someone who produced in the regular season and never brought it in the post season because they were too soft and then one year they toughened up? They learned what it took?

Maybe.

To the extent that those attributes are the standard of the player's team, leaving for a team that is a true contender might spark a player to adapt. Even if it's not a true evolution away from softness, just finding a productive niche might be enough of a contribution.

 

[conFABulator]

Based on my eye test, soft is the wrong word for Barkov's early playoff career. His points were a bit meh, 20 in 26 games, he has 38 in 45 games the last 2 years. So, not a significant change.The bigger change is he was losing a lot of puck battles that he wins in the regular season, and has won them the last couple years. So, I'd say it's more not getting overwhelmed by the intensity of the playoffs. You can call that soft vs. hard I s'pose.

Thanks. This is helpful in unpacking maybe what I am trying to get at. Winning puck battles and raising the intensity are the sorts of things that separate playoff performers from those that go home early.

Not getting overwhelmed is a good explanation also.

 

[conFABulator]

Maybe.

To the extent that those attributes are the standard of the player's team, leaving for a team that is a true contender might spark a player to adapt. Even if it's not a true evolution away from softness, just finding a productive niche might be enough of a contribution.

Yeah, I guess this is why teams trying to get over a hump often bring in vets and coaches with rings; in the hopes that they can raise that bar internally and that players don't have to go elsewhere to discover that next gear they need come playoffs.

O'Rielly, Foligno, Acciari, and Edmundson being some recent Leaf examples. Perry and Henrique (no ring, but lots of experience) in Edmonton. Maybe Berube makes a difference in TO?

 

[Cats2TheCup]

I think their are tiers.

I do think there are some players who naturally thrive in playoff hockey environment because it caters more to a brand of hockey they prefer to play.

Then there’s another type that need to experience playoff hockey in order to adapt. Some of them adapt sooner than others.

Then there’s that other tier where no matter what, they are just spoiled and stubborn, too mentally and physically overwhelmed by playoff hockey that they will always wilt under that pressure no matter what.

 

[BraveCanadian]

I think if you really dig into it you'll find that players growing into playoff performers has much more to do with factors outside then any magical switch they are able to flip individually.

It has much more to do with the opportunities they are given - for example when they are younger or down the roster they may not get the prime minutes or PP opportunities or last minute of the game deployments - the team around them, and their own normal player growth/maturity curve. It's tough to be the game 7 OT hero when you're on the bench.

Second, for many of the players people *think* grew into playoff performers - it is really just winning later making a nice narrative to excuse not winning earlier.

Yzerman is a good example of this.. did he adapt his game and play better defensively as he exited his offensive prime? Sure. Was he a better hockey player? No way. But he won and therefore he "sacrificed" his offense to win and blah blah blah.

Ovechkin is another one. He was a career long choker who couldn't get it done and he was a regular season wonder and blah blah.. wins once and you never hear that again.

Gretzky and the Oilers were beaten by the Isles and saw the kind of grit and determination that was needed to finally get over the top themselves. Or, more likely, the Islanders were gassed after going to 5 straight finals and passing their primes and the Oilers just happened to learn this lesson right when a bunch of them were hitting their real primes.

There are just a lot of variables that have to align for a team to win, but as human beings we like to attach a story to it about working hard and sacrifice and whatever. Not to say the players don't do these things but I think the stories tend to overstate how much a player's mentality really changes year to year.

Hyman is a good example of going from a situation that didn't suit him to a situation where McDavid meshed super well with him and let Hyman take out the garbage. Do I think Hyman magically became 10x the hockey player from one year to the next? No.

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

One can wonder if Detroit would have been able to win without Yzerman. That's how stacked the team looks. Edmonton was capable of winning a cup without Gretzky.