TheStatican
Registered User
- Mar 14, 2012
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I think we all have a good understanding of when Orr's and Lemieux's peaks ended but what about Gretzky's? I've seen this topic discussed in various other threads but I haven't seen anything close to a consensus on the matter and perhaps there never will be one but it doesn't hurt to try right?
Personally I used to see him having 5 peak seasons; 1981 through to 1986 the bookend of his 200-point seasons. But I've seen many on the boards argue that it was much longer than that. In terms of raw numbers there was indeed a big drop off from 1985-86 to 86-87(32 points), the first major drop in scoring in his career. I suppose technically there was also that drop from 81-82 to 82-83, but that was only temporary, this one was the start of a trend. I understand those who tout 86-87 and 87-88 as still being part of his peak focus less on the raw numbers and use other metrics like the difference between him and the other top players in the league, his even strength scoring remaining at a high level and a smaller drop in his points when adjusted to scoring levels, for their argument. After taking another look at these and other metrics I agree... partially. I now believe he was still in his peak in 86-87, but not 87-88.
First a look at his adjusted totals. After equalizing scoring levels indeed his decline doesn't look half as bad, decreasing the from 32 points to just 17. Also his goal scoring shoots back up significantly more. These are his point totals adjusted to 8.03 goals per NHL game, the highest scoring level of the 80's (Bolded would be league leading totals)
Now I know what your thinking, why 86-87 but not 87-88? Sure his ppg in both years was almost identical and that applies whether we use adjusted numbers or his real numbers (2.32 vs 2.33). However his goal scoring took a big dip in 87-88. Gretzky famously stated that he would focus more on assists in 85-86 and he held true to his word there so it's understandable why he goal scoring decreased that year. But in 87-88 his assist rate did not increase nearly as much as it did in 85-86 to go along with the goal scoring dip as his actual numbers attest to. Also going by hockey-reference's goals created metric which takes into account the greater value of goals, his production dropped more in 87-88 than it did from 85-86 and he no longer lead the league in that category;
I understand there is also his injury to consider. Prior to that he was indeed scoring at the exact same level as the season before with 30 goals in 38 games. Extrapolated to 79 games that equates to an identical 62 goals. But that's ignoring a very noticeable trend that was happening in Gretzky's game over the previous 4 year and in fact for most of his career; His goal scoring always inevitably trends downward in the latter half of the season. The only exceptions to this were his first two years, where it's understandable if not expected for a young superstar in the making to improve as the season progresses and 82-83 where he bucked the trend(one time in a 8-year stretch) by being a consistent goal scorer all-year round. But otherwise it was pretty much a given that it would drop and not by a little either, the difference was usually quite dramatic;
I honestly believe even hitting 50 would've been a challenge for him in 87-88.
Additionally he was more dependent on powerplay points than at any point in his entire career(to that point);
And lastly the gap between him and the other top players in the league dropped significantly for the first time since his peak started;
Lemieux beat him out for the Ross that year too and while it's true that he likely would have won it again had he not been injured, the gap would have been around a dozen points, by far his smallest victory ever. And considering goals are generally considered more valuable than assists Lemieux would arguably have had the more impressive offensive season. Hockey reference considers this in their goals created metric were Lemieux lead Gretzky on a per-game basis there; 0.85 to 0.80
Projected to 80 games for each;
50-136-186 Gretzky
73-102-175 Lemieux
Surely Lemieux didn't beat a peak Gretzky on a far more inferior team, or did he? You guys tell me.
The only thing to dispute all those downward trending metrics is his playoff performance. Admittedly it was better than his run the previous season and almost certainly one of the best 3 overall of his career. But the entire Oilers team was on fire that year, they along with the '85 Oilers are the only two teams to ever have 5 players with 25 or more points in a single playoff run. Messier was actually even out-pointing Gretz going into the finals! 31 to 30 And don't forget his point totals were augment by a phantom game, hockey reference doesn't even allow you to include that game in his cumulative totals. Honestly to this day I still think it's bizarre that the league choose to maintain the point totals from that game and then restart it from stretch. If your going to keep the points accumulated then for the integrity of the game you should have re-stared the game at 16:37 of second. That would have given Gretzky 11-29-40 with a little over a period to play. Good chance the Oilers win that one with the way they were rolling at the time and 50/50 Gretz gets another point. He was also the most rested he had even been leading into the playoffs curtesy of that 16 game mid-season layoff. Hard to believe that didn't have given him a boost in energy for that years run.
I'm not trying to take anything away from his superlative performance during that run, no matter what factors may have benefited him it doesn't take away from the fact it was one of the best playoff runs in NHL history. But an 19-game stretch is a relatively small sample size compared to the season - just a smidgen over 20% - and it doesn't change what the numbers as a whole were saying over the previous few years ; Gretzky was slowly declining. So the question really comes down to how much of a decline is enough for you to say he's no longer at his very best?
Also if your going to include 87-88 why not 88-89? Yes his ppg dropped from 2.33 to 2.15 where as it hadn't dropped the year before, but that should be completely understandable considering he moved onto a weaker offensive team. The Kings scored 318 goals the previous season and lost a 55 goals scorer. He also compensated for that decrease in ppg by an increase in his goal scoring going from 0.63 to 0.69 and hitting the 50+ goal plateau for the last time in his career. As for the playoffs, sure only reaching the second round is a far cry from winning the cup but was his individual performance really that much worse from the year prior? ppg wise he only dropped from 2.26 to 2.00(in the playoffs) and look what he was working with! He took a team that had won only two playoff rounds in it's entire two-decade history to the second round for just the 3rd time. He went from the Dynastic Oilers to a team that had 68 points the previous year! You cannot possibly fault him for failing to lead that Kings team past the eventual Stanley cup winning powerhouse Flames. Give me a break if you think his playoff performance had anything to do with that failing or that it was even really all that worst in verses 88's.
So with all that considered I'm going with 1986-87 as being the final year of his peak with his prime lasting until 90-91. To be even further specific I believe Gretzky's peak as a player actually began in the second half of the 1980-81 season when he scored '99' points in his final 41 games and the movement when he went from peak to prime being the three quarters mark of the 1986-87 season. At that point he had 54 goals and 149 points (2.48 ppg) in 60 games, he then finished the year with just 8 goals and 34 points in his final 19 (1.79ppg). Some say he was 'saving' or resting himself for the playoffs, but he went on to have his weakest playoff performance since his rookie season and the worst of his 6 runs to the finals. Sure he potted an impressive 15 points in 4 games ni the first round... against the defensively porous Kings that he would soon join. After that he proceed to score just 19 point in 17 games, barely over a point per game with only 3 goals. If that's not a sign of a drop I don't know what is.
Personally I used to see him having 5 peak seasons; 1981 through to 1986 the bookend of his 200-point seasons. But I've seen many on the boards argue that it was much longer than that. In terms of raw numbers there was indeed a big drop off from 1985-86 to 86-87(32 points), the first major drop in scoring in his career. I suppose technically there was also that drop from 81-82 to 82-83, but that was only temporary, this one was the start of a trend. I understand those who tout 86-87 and 87-88 as still being part of his peak focus less on the raw numbers and use other metrics like the difference between him and the other top players in the league, his even strength scoring remaining at a high level and a smaller drop in his points when adjusted to scoring levels, for their argument. After taking another look at these and other metrics I agree... partially. I now believe he was still in his peak in 86-87, but not 87-88.
First a look at his adjusted totals. After equalizing scoring levels indeed his decline doesn't look half as bad, decreasing the from 32 points to just 17. Also his goal scoring shoots back up significantly more. These are his point totals adjusted to 8.03 goals per NHL game, the highest scoring level of the 80's (Bolded would be league leading totals)
Season | GPG | PPG | G | PT |
1979-80 | 0.74 | 1.98 | 58 | 156 |
1980-81 | 0.72 | 2.14 | 57 | 171 |
1981-82 | 1.15 | 2.65 | 92 | 212 |
1982-83 | 0.92 | 2.55 | 74 | 204 |
1983-84 | 1.20 | 2.82 | 89 | 209 |
1984-85 | 0.94 | 2.69 | 75 | 215 |
1985-86 | 0.66 | 2.72 | 53 | 217 |
1986-87 | 0.86 | 2.53 | 68 | 200 |
1987-88 | 0.68 | 2.52 | 43 | 161 |
Now I know what your thinking, why 86-87 but not 87-88? Sure his ppg in both years was almost identical and that applies whether we use adjusted numbers or his real numbers (2.32 vs 2.33). However his goal scoring took a big dip in 87-88. Gretzky famously stated that he would focus more on assists in 85-86 and he held true to his word there so it's understandable why he goal scoring decreased that year. But in 87-88 his assist rate did not increase nearly as much as it did in 85-86 to go along with the goal scoring dip as his actual numbers attest to. Also going by hockey-reference's goals created metric which takes into account the greater value of goals, his production dropped more in 87-88 than it did from 85-86 and he no longer lead the league in that category;
Season | GPG | APG | PPG | Goals Created |
1985-86 | 0.65 | 2.04 | 2.69 | 0.89 |
1986-87 | 0.78 | 1.53 | 2.32 | 0.85 |
1987-88 | 0.63 | 1.70 | 2.33 | 0.80 |
I understand there is also his injury to consider. Prior to that he was indeed scoring at the exact same level as the season before with 30 goals in 38 games. Extrapolated to 79 games that equates to an identical 62 goals. But that's ignoring a very noticeable trend that was happening in Gretzky's game over the previous 4 year and in fact for most of his career; His goal scoring always inevitably trends downward in the latter half of the season. The only exceptions to this were his first two years, where it's understandable if not expected for a young superstar in the making to improve as the season progresses and 82-83 where he bucked the trend(one time in a 8-year stretch) by being a consistent goal scorer all-year round. But otherwise it was pretty much a given that it would drop and not by a little either, the difference was usually quite dramatic;
Season | Hot start | | Cool finish | | Decrease of |
1981-82 | 50 in 39 | 1.28 gpg | 42 in 41 | 1.02 gpg | -20.1% |
1983-84 | 73 in 57 | 1.28 gpg | 14 in 17 | 0.82 gpg | -35.7% |
1984-85 | 40 in 36 | 1.11 gpg | 33 in 44 | 0.75 gpg | -32.5% |
1985-86 | 38 in 49 | 0.78 gpg | 14 in 31 | 0.45 gpg | -41.8% |
1986-87 | 40 in 39 | 1.03 gpg | 22 in 40 | 0.55 gpg | -46.4% |
1987-88 | 30 in 38 | 0.79 gpg | 10 in 26 | 0.38 gpg | -51.3% |
1988-89 | 46 in 59 | 0.78 gpg | 8 in 19 | 0.42 gpg | -46.0% |
I honestly believe even hitting 50 would've been a challenge for him in 87-88.
Additionally he was more dependent on powerplay points than at any point in his entire career(to that point);
Season | EV | PP | SH | EV/PP ratio |
1979-80 | 73.0% | 25.5% | 1.5% | 2.9 |
1980-81 | 63.4% | 32.3% | 4.3% | 2.0 |
1981-82 | 69.3% | 26.9% | 3.8% | 2.6 |
1982-83 | 67.3% | 27.6% | 5.1% | 2.4 |
1983-84 | 65.9% | 22.9% | 11.2% | 2.9 |
1984-85 | 70.2% | 21.2% | 8.7% | 3.3 |
1985-86 | 66.5% | 25.1% | 8.4% | 2.6 |
1986-87 | 67.8% | 25.1% | 7.1% | 2.7 |
1987-88 | 61.1% | 32.9% | 6.0% | 1.9 |
1988-89 | 59.5% | 31.5% | 8.9% | 1.9 |
And lastly the gap between him and the other top players in the league dropped significantly for the first time since his peak started;
| 1981-82 | 1982-83 | 1983-84 | 1984-85 | 1985-86 | 1986-87 | 1987-88 |
#2 | 44.2% | 48.2% | 56.8% | 40.6% | 50.6% | 36.4% | 6.7% |
#3 | 52.5% | 58.0% | 57.3% | 60.0% | 53.9% | 66.7% | 42.1% |
#5 | 64.3% | 69.7% | 70.2% | 68.9% | 67.5% | 76.4% | 53.9% |
#10 | 90.0% | 86.6% | 100.1% | 91.9% | 93.8% | 83.2% | 74.0% |
Lemieux beat him out for the Ross that year too and while it's true that he likely would have won it again had he not been injured, the gap would have been around a dozen points, by far his smallest victory ever. And considering goals are generally considered more valuable than assists Lemieux would arguably have had the more impressive offensive season. Hockey reference considers this in their goals created metric were Lemieux lead Gretzky on a per-game basis there; 0.85 to 0.80
Projected to 80 games for each;
50-136-186 Gretzky
73-102-175 Lemieux
Surely Lemieux didn't beat a peak Gretzky on a far more inferior team, or did he? You guys tell me.
The only thing to dispute all those downward trending metrics is his playoff performance. Admittedly it was better than his run the previous season and almost certainly one of the best 3 overall of his career. But the entire Oilers team was on fire that year, they along with the '85 Oilers are the only two teams to ever have 5 players with 25 or more points in a single playoff run. Messier was actually even out-pointing Gretz going into the finals! 31 to 30 And don't forget his point totals were augment by a phantom game, hockey reference doesn't even allow you to include that game in his cumulative totals. Honestly to this day I still think it's bizarre that the league choose to maintain the point totals from that game and then restart it from stretch. If your going to keep the points accumulated then for the integrity of the game you should have re-stared the game at 16:37 of second. That would have given Gretzky 11-29-40 with a little over a period to play. Good chance the Oilers win that one with the way they were rolling at the time and 50/50 Gretz gets another point. He was also the most rested he had even been leading into the playoffs curtesy of that 16 game mid-season layoff. Hard to believe that didn't have given him a boost in energy for that years run.
I'm not trying to take anything away from his superlative performance during that run, no matter what factors may have benefited him it doesn't take away from the fact it was one of the best playoff runs in NHL history. But an 19-game stretch is a relatively small sample size compared to the season - just a smidgen over 20% - and it doesn't change what the numbers as a whole were saying over the previous few years ; Gretzky was slowly declining. So the question really comes down to how much of a decline is enough for you to say he's no longer at his very best?
Also if your going to include 87-88 why not 88-89? Yes his ppg dropped from 2.33 to 2.15 where as it hadn't dropped the year before, but that should be completely understandable considering he moved onto a weaker offensive team. The Kings scored 318 goals the previous season and lost a 55 goals scorer. He also compensated for that decrease in ppg by an increase in his goal scoring going from 0.63 to 0.69 and hitting the 50+ goal plateau for the last time in his career. As for the playoffs, sure only reaching the second round is a far cry from winning the cup but was his individual performance really that much worse from the year prior? ppg wise he only dropped from 2.26 to 2.00(in the playoffs) and look what he was working with! He took a team that had won only two playoff rounds in it's entire two-decade history to the second round for just the 3rd time. He went from the Dynastic Oilers to a team that had 68 points the previous year! You cannot possibly fault him for failing to lead that Kings team past the eventual Stanley cup winning powerhouse Flames. Give me a break if you think his playoff performance had anything to do with that failing or that it was even really all that worst in verses 88's.
So with all that considered I'm going with 1986-87 as being the final year of his peak with his prime lasting until 90-91. To be even further specific I believe Gretzky's peak as a player actually began in the second half of the 1980-81 season when he scored '99' points in his final 41 games and the movement when he went from peak to prime being the three quarters mark of the 1986-87 season. At that point he had 54 goals and 149 points (2.48 ppg) in 60 games, he then finished the year with just 8 goals and 34 points in his final 19 (1.79ppg). Some say he was 'saving' or resting himself for the playoffs, but he went on to have his weakest playoff performance since his rookie season and the worst of his 6 runs to the finals. Sure he potted an impressive 15 points in 4 games ni the first round... against the defensively porous Kings that he would soon join. After that he proceed to score just 19 point in 17 games, barely over a point per game with only 3 goals. If that's not a sign of a drop I don't know what is.
