Gretzky's Difficulties In Scoring Goals Against Good Defenses, After The Mid-1980s.

[Video Nasty]

It’s never been that mysterious to me.

1. Traditionally, goal scorers are unlikely to pot 60+ goals past the age of 26.

2. He played nearly every game of the regular season and playoffs through the age of 26. 632 regular season games out of 640 and 101 playoffs games. That’s 733 games of NHL hockey through just 8 seasons.

3. Add in the knee injury during his final year in Edmonton and making a 5th Stanley Cup Finals appearance in 6 years, and we have an extreme amount of hockey played in a very short period of time. He played almost 100 games of hockey year in and year out, from the ages of 22-27. That’s going to have an impact.

4. He still proved he was capable of being a 40-50 goal scorer through age 30 (while still handing out 100 assists).

5. The back injuries are well documented, but because he dismantled the league for a dozen years, too many are willing to gloss over them and act like he was supposed to be immune to them and the effects of aging. The same people wax poetic about all the time Mario missed. Adjust a few things for Gretzky in a similar fashion and the gap only swells.

Yet another reason why Gretzky is the greatest is because he was apparently expected to score 60+ goals, 100+ assists, and 160+ points for 20 years in a row, while playing nearly all the games and being healthy the entire way.

 

[overpass]

When comparing Gretzky's stats against other forwards, don't forget to consider that he played more minutes than any other forward in the league.

I ran ice time estimates, based on on-ice goals as a percentage of team goals, for eight top scoring centres for the 1985-86 to 1990-91 time period. Gretzky, Lemieux, Yzerman, Messier, Hawerchuk, Savard, Nicholls, and Lafontaine.

On the power play, Mario played more ice time than any of them, and Gretzky was second. Looking at power play goals per (estimated) 60 minutes, Gretzky was the least effective goal scorer on the power play.

Power play goals per (estimated) 60 minutes, 1985-86 to 1990-91
Pat Lafontaine: 2.2
Mario Lemieux: 2.1
Dale Hawerchuk: 2.0
Bernie Nicholls: 1.8
Denis Savard: 1.7
Steve Yzerman: 1.5
Mark Messier: 1.5
Wayne Gretzky: 1.3

At even strength, Gretzky played more ice time than anyone else, with Lemieux and Yzerman not far behind.

Per estimated 60 minutes, Gretzky was in the middle of the pack as an EV goal scorer, similar to Yzerman, Savard, Nicholls, and Messier, and well behind Lemieux and Lafontaine.

Even strength goals per (estimated) 60 minutes, 1985-86 to 1990-91

Mario Lemieux: 1.7
Pat Lafontaine: 1.5
Steve Yzerman: 1.4
Denis Savard: 1.4
Wayne Gretzky: 1.3
Bernie Nicholls: 1.2
Mark Messier: 1.2
Dale Hawerchuk: 1.1

Overall, Lemieux and Lafontaine were clearly the best goal scoring centres of this era, finishing 1-2 at both EV and PP. I would have to say Yzerman and Savard were both ahead of Gretzky as well, as both led Gretzky in goal scoring efficiency at EV and PP. Nicholls, Messier, and Hawerchuk are debatable, depending on how you want to value EV and PP.

And then consider that Gretzky failed to maintain his goal scoring rate against good teams in a way that none of the others did.

1985-86 to 1990-91, vs teams that were 0.500 or above:

Mario Lemieux: 212 GP, 161 G, 0.76 G/GP
Steve Yzerman: 211 GP, 140 G, 0.66 G/GP
Pat Lafontaine: 251 GP, 141 G, 0.56 G/GP
Bernie Nicholls: 246 GP, 132 G, 0.54 G/GP
Wayne Gretzky: 228 GP, 121 G, 0.53 G/GP
Denis Savard: 202 GP, 101 G, 0.50 G/GP
Dale Hawerchuk: 257 GP, 121 G, 0.47 G/GP
Mark Messier: 205 GP, 92 G, 0.45 G/GP

1985-86 to 1990-91, vs teams that were under 0.500:

Mario Lemieux: 168 GP, 160 G, 0.95 G/GP
Wayne Gretzky: 224 GP, 168 G, 0.75 G/GP
Pat Lafontaine: 193 GP, 116 G, 0.60 G/GP
Steve Yzerman: 223 GP, 133 G, 0.60 G/GP
Denis Savard: 216 GP, 108 G, 0.50 G/GP
Mark Messier: 216 GP, 107 G, 0.50 G/GP
Bernie Nicholls: 208 GP, 103 G, 0.50 G/GP
Dale Hawerchuk: 217 GP, 104 G, 0.48 G/GP

The takeaway from the above splits? Gretzky scored 41% more goals per game against below average teams than he did against average or above average teams. Lemieux scored 25% more. The other six were within +/- 10%. So Gretzky did indeed score less against good defenses in the mid-late 80s,, and by a much larger margin than other top centres.

Overall, from 1985-86 to 1990-91:

Mario Lemieux and Pat Lafontaine were clearly more efficient goal scorers than Gretzky, and maintained their goal scoring better against stronger competition.

Steve Yzerman and Denis Savard were slightly more efficient goal scorers than Gretzky, and maintained their goal scoring better against stronger competition.

Mark Messier, Bernie Nicholls, and Dale Hawerchuk were slightly less efficient goal scorers than Gretzky, and maintained their goal scoring better against stronger competition.

If all eight played equal minutes in a season and played against good defenses only, I think Gretzky would have the best odds to finish with the fewest goals.

Although Gretzky was unable to sustain his goal scoring against better competition during the mid-late 80s, he remained the best playmaker, and was able to play the most minutes. He was likely the best offensive player overall for the time period as a whole, certainly for the first few years before Mario Lemieux hit his prime.

 

[MadLuke]

And then consider that Gretzky failed to maintain his goal scoring rate against good teams in a way that none of the others did.

I wonder if the first vs second half goalscoring decline could be in those line, in the playoff race even bad teams (back in those days almost all team were in the playoff race till the end) giving good effort on defense.

 

[Crosby2010]

Five years younger he would have had fewer time than Bossy to pile them up.

So he's born in 1986 then and enters the NHL in 1984. Would have been a heck of a race to see who the #1 overall draft pick is that year, but alas. It isn't as if goal scoring wasn't still very high. But has anyone thought that Gretzky and the Oilers in the early 1980s drove the league the direction it went? This is a guy who dismantled the record book in his 2nd season in the NHL and then obliterated it in his 3rd season. There is no doubt teams copied this offensive style of game. The Islanders may have still been winning, but 92 goals and 212 points in a season definitely had an impact. Esposito put up gaudy totals in the 1970s and not even a decade later his records are gone. And by a long shot too. That had an impact, let's not kid ourselves. So basically what I am saying is that Gretzky definitely helped change the game the way it was being played. And since you mentioned Bossy, as great as a goal scorer as we all know he was, no one ever answers why he was left in the dust from a goal scoring standpoint against Gretzky. This is Mike Bossy we are talking about.

 

[MadLuke]

But has anyone thought that Gretzky and the Oilers in the early 1980s drove the league the direction it went?

Depend what we mean the highest scoring season post ww2 was 1982.

81 and 82 saw big jump (oilers or the expension in general or something else ? power play jump a lot in 1981), maintain after that, go down starting 1987 a little bit

 

[Crosby2010]

Depend what we mean the highest scoring season post ww2 was 1982.

81 and 82 saw big jump (oilers or the expension in general or something else ? power play jump a lot in 1981), maintain after that, go down starting 1987 a little bit

So shouldn't we contribute some of that to the Oilers? They certainly influenced things. And the one we give the most credit to is Gretzky. And even so, look at those 1980 and 1981 teams. There isn't a lot on there. The other Oilers didn't get their big numbers until starting in 1982 and Gretzky had double the points of his next teammate. And yet he still scored 51 and 55 goals as a teenager. I'll ask what I've asked before, a couple of questions, if Gretzky was just a product of the league at the time why didn't other great goal scorers do things similar? And how long was it sufficient to put up high goal totals and why wasn't the 8 straight years of at least 50 goals good enough?

 

[MadLuke]

So shouldn't we contribute some of that to the Oilers? They certainly influenced things.

Scoring maintainged/went down after 1982 not up and the Oilers had yet to win, league scoring was almost already at his maximum in 1981 when the oilers were a regular top 10 offense 29 wins team.

 

[Crosby2010]

Scoring maintainged/went down after 1982 not up and the Oilers had yet to win, league scoring was almost already at his maximum in 1981 when the oilers were a regular top 10 offense 29 wins team.

It stayed right around that until 1986. Even in 1986 it was 7.9 GPG "down" from 8.0 in 1982. The drop was 7.4 or 7.5 or so until 1990. 1991 it was 6.9. Then above 7 again for two seasons. I mean, you can argue that the Oilers set the standard. That is a debate for another day and people can figure that out on their own and decide but like I was saying why didn't others do what Gretzky did in the early to mid 1980s? You had some great goal scorers and they couldn't match him. I also think people need to watch old footage of Gretzky. I get the feeling people look at the 1990s version of him and assume that he wasn't quicker when he was younger. And he was. He was just so smart out there that he could win scoring titles well into his 30s and lead the NHL in assists well into his 2nd to last season. But his goal scoring was legit. How much of it was hockey sense? Lots of it. But I think it was his quickness in those earlier days that separates him as well.

 

[MadLuke]

Yes really an hard debate, at least the numbers do not show any increase in league wide scoring after the Oilers won the cup. Or something special that would need an explanation relative to how high scoring was by 1981 before any sign of success from them.

And it would make sense if it did not really influence the competition, league can be a copycat but it need to be something realistic to do, small horror movie or Reservoir dogs make giant money, everyone try to make them, Titanic make giant money, very few attempts by others at doing that, you cannot rise $200 millions to do an non-franchise movie and if you can you are not James Cameron to pull it off, you end up doing Pearl Harbor and not one else follow after that.

Trying to outscore the Oilers using your better high flyng offense or basing your strategy on what the team with Wayne Gretzky do seem like a terrible idea, following the Panthers way to reach the finals is much more realistic.

And then consider that Gretzky failed to maintain his goal scoring rate against good teams in a way that none of the others did.

It is hard to imagine a more compelling "evidence" to back the notion that better defense did hurt Gretzky goalscoring more than others in the second half of the 80s than this.

 

[The Panther]

When comparing Gretzky's stats against other forwards, don't forget to consider that he played more minutes than any other forward in the league.

I ran ice time estimates, based on on-ice goals as a percentage of team goals, for eight top scoring centres for the 1985-86 to 1990-91 time period. Gretzky, Lemieux, Yzerman, Messier, Hawerchuk, Savard, Nicholls, and Lafontaine.

Are these 'estimates' taking into account that Gretzky was a regular PK forward, and thus the PK night be 2 or 3 minutes a game of ice-time when the player is not trying to score? This would contrast a lot with Hawerchuk, Savard, and Lafontaine.

Also, what is this estimate based on, exactly? Are you simply assuming that each top-scoring forward was on the ice for the same percentage (of team goals) that he didn't get a point on?

1985-86 to 1990-91, vs teams that were 0.500 or above:

Mario Lemieux: 212 GP, 161 G, 0.76 G/GP
Steve Yzerman: 211 GP, 140 G, 0.66 G/GP
Pat Lafontaine: 251 GP, 141 G, 0.56 G/GP
Bernie Nicholls: 246 GP, 132 G, 0.54 G/GP
Wayne Gretzky: 228 GP, 121 G, 0.53 G/GP
Denis Savard: 202 GP, 101 G, 0.50 G/GP
Dale Hawerchuk: 257 GP, 121 G, 0.47 G/GP
Mark Messier: 205 GP, 92 G, 0.45 G/GP

What is your criteria for each team here? Is it based on the record for each individual season, or based on the top teams of the whole time period?

Also, since we're talking about League defense here, shouldn't the criteria be top defensive clubs, not top records? For example, Calgary in this era was a top club but wasn't overly hard to score against.

 

[Staniowski]

When comparing Gretzky's stats against other forwards, don't forget to consider that he played more minutes than any other forward in the league.

I ran ice time estimates, based on on-ice goals as a percentage of team goals, for eight top scoring centres for the 1985-86 to 1990-91 time period. Gretzky, Lemieux, Yzerman, Messier, Hawerchuk, Savard, Nicholls, and Lafontaine.

On the power play, Mario played more ice time than any of them, and Gretzky was second. Looking at power play goals per (estimated) 60 minutes, Gretzky was the least effective goal scorer on the power play.

Power play goals per (estimated) 60 minutes, 1985-86 to 1990-91
Pat Lafontaine: 2.2
Mario Lemieux: 2.1
Dale Hawerchuk: 2.0
Bernie Nicholls: 1.8
Denis Savard: 1.7
Steve Yzerman: 1.5
Mark Messier: 1.5
Wayne Gretzky: 1.3

At even strength, Gretzky played more ice time than anyone else, with Lemieux and Yzerman not far behind.

Per estimated 60 minutes, Gretzky was in the middle of the pack as an EV goal scorer, similar to Yzerman, Savard, Nicholls, and Messier, and well behind Lemieux and Lafontaine.

Even strength goals per (estimated) 60 minutes, 1985-86 to 1990-91

Mario Lemieux: 1.7
Pat Lafontaine: 1.5
Steve Yzerman: 1.4
Denis Savard: 1.4
Wayne Gretzky: 1.3
Bernie Nicholls: 1.2
Mark Messier: 1.2
Dale Hawerchuk: 1.1

Overall, Lemieux and Lafontaine were clearly the best goal scoring centres of this era, finishing 1-2 at both EV and PP. I would have to say Yzerman and Savard were both ahead of Gretzky as well, as both led Gretzky in goal scoring efficiency at EV and PP. Nicholls, Messier, and Hawerchuk are debatable, depending on how you want to value EV and PP.

And then consider that Gretzky failed to maintain his goal scoring rate against good teams in a way that none of the others did.

1985-86 to 1990-91, vs teams that were 0.500 or above:

Mario Lemieux: 212 GP, 161 G, 0.76 G/GP
Steve Yzerman: 211 GP, 140 G, 0.66 G/GP
Pat Lafontaine: 251 GP, 141 G, 0.56 G/GP
Bernie Nicholls: 246 GP, 132 G, 0.54 G/GP
Wayne Gretzky: 228 GP, 121 G, 0.53 G/GP
Denis Savard: 202 GP, 101 G, 0.50 G/GP
Dale Hawerchuk: 257 GP, 121 G, 0.47 G/GP
Mark Messier: 205 GP, 92 G, 0.45 G/GP

1985-86 to 1990-91, vs teams that were under 0.500:

Mario Lemieux: 168 GP, 160 G, 0.95 G/GP
Wayne Gretzky: 224 GP, 168 G, 0.75 G/GP
Pat Lafontaine: 193 GP, 116 G, 0.60 G/GP
Steve Yzerman: 223 GP, 133 G, 0.60 G/GP
Denis Savard: 216 GP, 108 G, 0.50 G/GP
Mark Messier: 216 GP, 107 G, 0.50 G/GP
Bernie Nicholls: 208 GP, 103 G, 0.50 G/GP
Dale Hawerchuk: 217 GP, 104 G, 0.48 G/GP

The takeaway from the above splits? Gretzky scored 41% more goals per game against below average teams than he did against average or above average teams. Lemieux scored 25% more. The other six were within +/- 10%. So Gretzky did indeed score less against good defenses in the mid-late 80s,, and by a much larger margin than other top centres.

Overall, from 1985-86 to 1990-91:

Mario Lemieux and Pat Lafontaine were clearly more efficient goal scorers than Gretzky, and maintained their goal scoring better against stronger competition.

Steve Yzerman and Denis Savard were slightly more efficient goal scorers than Gretzky, and maintained their goal scoring better against stronger competition.

Mark Messier, Bernie Nicholls, and Dale Hawerchuk were slightly less efficient goal scorers than Gretzky, and maintained their goal scoring better against stronger competition.

If all eight played equal minutes in a season and played against good defenses only, I think Gretzky would have the best odds to finish with the fewest goals.

Although Gretzky was unable to sustain his goal scoring against better competition during the mid-late 80s, he remained the best playmaker, and was able to play the most minutes. He was likely the best offensive player overall for the time period as a whole, certainly for the first few years before Mario Lemieux hit his prime.

Happy that you brought up LaFontaine as a goal-scorer, because he was excellent, and his numbers and reputation don't always reflect what a good goal-scorer he was.

He was really good around the net, hungry, feisty, smart, and had great hands...Great dekes, and could really find holes with his shot.

 

[Staniowski]

I don't see why this is so controversial.

Gretzky was a player who was ahead of his time both as a goal scorer and a playmaker. As the league changed significantly in the late 1980s (better goalies, shorter shifts, better defense/systems) his playmaking skill proved that it could stand the test of time across eras while his goal scoring did not, and his goal numbers fell pretty consistently from their peak in 83-84 right through the end of his career.

In 1983, you could be an elite goal scorer by being a clever player with quick hands who could fake a goalie or pick holes. By 1990 or 1993, elite goal scorers were pretty exclusively guys with explosive physical skills - size, skating, shot - that Gretzky simply didn't have.

It's actually not even slightly controversial. When i started the thread, I wasn't asking why Gretzky's goal-scoring went way up, then way down. I - and most people who watched Gretzky's career - already know the reasons. The Gretzky fans are trying their best to make it sound controversial. But it's certainly not.

Gretzky didn't have the attributes and skills to continue scoring goals at a high level (like he did early in his career) when the league became better (because of better talent and better coaching).

It's as simple as that, as you've said.

Gretzky's goal-scoring didn't change much from the early '80s to the mid '80s to the late '80s to the early '90s. What (mostly) changed were the conditions of the league. The conditions changed for everybody, not just Gretzky, and it affected every player in different ways.

 

[overpass]

@The Panther

Here's how I calculated those estimates. I went season by season for each player. Each player had six seasons from 1985-86 to 1990-91.

Estimate team ice time
1. Estimate the ice time the player's team spent on the power play and the penalty kill. I used (power play opportunities times 2, minus power play goals, all divided by 1.1).
2. Estimate the even strength ice time for the player's team by subtracting power play and penalty kill TOI from total TOI.

Estimate the player's percentage in his team's ice time
1. For even strength ice time, I estimated the on-ice goals for and against for each player using plus-minus component data, and estimating on-ice shorthanded goals for and against. (Estimated) EVGF = TGF - PGF - (estimated SHGF), and similarly for estimated EVGA.
2. I calculated the percentage of team even strength goals for and against for which the player was on the ice, using the above estimate and actual team EVGF/EVGA.
3. I also calculated the percentage of team power play goals for which the player was on the ice, using player PGF divided by team power play goals.
4. And I did the same for team power play goals against (i.e. shorthanded play).

Estimate the player's ice time from the above two numbers
1. For even strength ice time, I divided the player's even strength goals against by team even strength goals against, and multiplied that number by the estimated team EV ice time.

The key assumption here is that forwards from this era were on the ice for goals against at a roughly equal rate, but their goals for rate varied based on offensive skill, so goals against are the best way to estimate ice time.

2. For power play ice time, I took the percentage of team power play goals for which the player was on the ice and multiplied it by the team's estimated power play ice time.

Here's what I got as the estimated ice time results for the 8 centres in question from 1985-86 to 1990-91. All numbers are minutes per game.

Wayne Gretzky: 20.6 EV, 6.2 PP, 3.1 SH, 29.8 total
Mario Lemieux: 17.5 EV, 8.3 PP, 2.5 SH, 28.3 total
Steve Yzerman: 17.9 EV, 6.0 PP, 3.2 SH, 27.2 total
Mark Messier: 14.6 EV, 4.8 PP, 3.9 SH, 23.4 total
Dale Hawerchuk: 16.4 EV, 5.3 PP, 1.1 SH, 22.8 total
Bernie Nicholls: 15.5 EV, 5.4 PP, 1.7 SH, 22.6 total
Pat Lafontaine: 15.6 EV, 4.7 PP, 0.7 SH, 21.0 total
Denis Savard: 13.7 EV, 5.1 PP, 1.6 SH, 20.4 total

I did not use the SH TOI estimates in my calculations, only the EV TOI and PP TOI estimates, because I was estimating their goal scoring rates in those two situations..

Regarding the strength of opposition numbers, I measured for each individual season. So the Winnipeg Jets were considered below average opponents for Gretzky in 85-86, 87-88, 88-89, and 90-91. and above average opponents in 86-87 and 89-90.

Would it make sense to use goals against instead of team record? Sure, that could be another way to look at it. You're welcome to run those numbers if you want.

 

[JackSlater]

So this topic has come up in one form or another in a few threads over the last few years, and I do not think it is all that controversial. The style of the league can chance, and it can impact certain players more than others. Likewise players change leagues and don't necessarily have the same change in results as other players who made the same change. In Gretzky's case, it is true that there were plenty of people, though certainly not everyone, who thought that Bossy was a better goal scorer than Gretzky was even in the years when Gretzky repeatedly led the NHL in goals. These people did not lack the ability to look in the newspaper and see yearly goal totals.

As for Gretzky, I do think that his goal scoring peak happened in a particularly friendly environment for his type of goal scoring. Most goal scorers throughout history relied on an elite shot to score goals, it's the most consistent, era-proof weapon that exists. Gretzky had a good shot but it was not one of the very best in the world, and in particular his slap shot goals have largely been phased out. Probably the second most valuable skill is the ability to get to the net, which often requires strength and then coordination to score goals. Gretzky had the coordination but wasn't a notably strong player. That said, Gretzky was the smartest player ever and it elevated every other skill he did have. He would peak as an elite goal scorer in any era because of his intelligence and skill. I just don't think he would always peak as the best goal scorer in the NHL because of the way he did score goals.

If a 32 team league existed with all of the best players in history at their peaks playing in it, I'd expect Gretzky to lead the league in scoring and almost certainly in assists, but I see him more as a top 20 in goals kind of player.

 

[The Panther]

The above stats about Gretzky vs. top-teams seem a little weird to me, and when a poster is using ice-time ice-time “estimations” to conclude that late-80s’ Gretzky was inferior at ES goal-scoring to Denis Savard (WTF?), I start to feel the stats are a little sus.

So, I’m going to try to break it down a little more.

Time period
I will focus on Wayne’s last season in Edmonton and his first three seasons in L.A. (as usual, this ends with 1990-91, the last season of his prime).

Strength-of-Opponents
Because I’m focusing on only a 4-season period, I’m going to break down the teams Gretzky faces for the entire 4-season period into three categories: Top teams, Middle teams, Bottom teams. That is, I’ll simply divide it evenly into seven clubs per category. (I don’t really like the idea of dividing teams into .600 and .500 and so-on. For one thing, there are so few .600 clubs that the sample size is really small.)

Top Teams: Calgary, Montreal, Boston, Buffalo, St. Louis, Edmonton (1989-1991), Washington
Middle Teams: NYR, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Hartford, Philly, New Jersey
Bottom Teams: Winnipeg, NY Isles, Los Angeles (1988), Minnesota, Vancouver, Toronto, Quebec

Defensive Opponents
Again, I’ll use the entire 4-season period in one chunk, and divide the teams into thirds (top, middle, bottom).

Top Teams: Montreal, Boston, Washington, Calgary, Hartford, St. Louis, NYR
Middle Teams: Buffalo, Philly, Edmonton (1989-1991), Chicago, NY Isles, New Jersey, Minnesota
Bottom Teams: Vancouver, Detroit, Winnipeg, Pittsburgh, Toronto, Quebec, Los Angeles (1988)

I’m not going to get into the ice-time thing at all because… how can we? We don’t know. This is speculation, and also I think ice-time isn’t some eternally equal thing in terms of chances to produce points. Like, score-effects and team strength and so on are going to hugely influence how much ice-time is given to top players. And it’s not like the top players are desperately trying to score when the team is up 5-1 with ten minutes left. There are too many factors coming into it for me to see it as a valid factor to make estimates from (and certainly not to produce evaluative “statistics” from). I will stick with the actual stats we can be sure of.

Anyway, to the best of my ability, here’s how it all breaks down:

1987-88 through 1990-91

Goals per Game
0.92 Lemieux
0.77 Hull
0.75 Yzerman
0.64 Neely
0.62 Robitaille
0.62 Nieuwendyk
0.62 Lafontaine
0.60 Gretzky
0.46 Savard
0.45 Hawerchuk

ES Goals per Game
0.51 Hull
0.50 Yzerman
0.50 Lemieux
0.44 Robitaille
0.42 Gretzky
0.42 Lafontaine
0.39 Neely
0.30 Nieuwendyk
0.26 Hawerchuk
0.25 Savard

Above 10 players sorted for shooting percentage
21.9% Robitaille
21.9% Nieuwendyk
21.7% Lemieux
19.0% Neely
18.2% Gretzky
18.0% Lafontaine
17.9% Hull
17.7% Yzerman
15.2% Hawerchuk
14.9% Savard

Gretzky-goals-per-game by Strength-of-Opponents

vs. Top Teams = 0.52 GPG
(55G / 106GP: Calgary 12/29, Montreal 2/11, Boston 7/11, Buffalo 10/12, St. Louis 4/10, Edmonton 14/23, Washington 6/10)

vs. Middle Teams = 0.64 GPG
(50G / 78GP: NYR 8/12, Chicago 10/11, Pittsburgh 5/10, Detroit 10/12, Hartford 6/11, Philly 3/10, New Jersey 8/12)

vs. Bottom Teams = 0.66 GPG
(72G / GP: Winnipeg 13/27, NY Isles 9/10, Los Angeles 6/8, Minnesota 13/11, Vancouver 17/30, Toronto 6/12, Quebec 8/11

NOTE: This follows the normal range I would expect – Gretzky scores substantially (a 42-goal pace) but lower vs. the top teams, scores at his overall average rate (a 51-goal pace) vs. the middle teams, and scores at only a marginally higher rate (a 53-goal pace) vs. the weakest teams.

Gretzky-goals-per-game by Defensive-Opponents

vs. Top Teams = 0.48 GPG
(45G / 94GP: Montreal 2/11, Boston 7/11, Washington 6/10, Calgary 12/29, Hartford 6/11, St. Louis 4/10, NYR 8/12)

vs. Middle Teams = 0.75 GPG
(67G / 89GP: Buffalo 10/12, Philly 3/10, Edmonton 14/23, Chicago 10/11, NY Isles 9/10, New Jersey 8/12, Minnesota 13/11)

vs. Bottom Teams = 0.59 GPG
(65G / 110GP: Vancouver 17/30, Detroit 10/12, Winnipeg 13/27, Pittsburgh 5/10, Toronto 6/12, Quebec 8/11, Los Angeles 6/8)

NOTE: Similar to above, but with an expected lower rate (a 38-goal pace) vs. the top teams, a surprisingly high rate (a 60-goal pace) vs. the middle teams, and around his overall average (a 47-goal pace) vs. the weaker teams.

I don’t have time to run the comparative numbers for the other top goal scorers, but I would not expect (doesn’t mean it’s impossible) anyone’s numbers to be massively different relative to his overall scoring, minus minor variations here or there.

In short… there’s nothing to see here, and no support for the idea that Gretzky was unable to score vs. tougher defensive teams. These four seasons, he was scoring at a 60-goal pace vs. League-average defensive teams, and scoring at a 40-goal pace vs. the top teams and the top defensive teams.

(Stats done in good faith, but do let me know if any errors. I arrived off a 7-hour flight from Malaysia this morning, got home at 1:30am, and then spent the whole day at my university grading freshman entrance-exam essays, so my brain is admittedly a bit fried.)

 

[seventieslord]

.....I mean if you think that was a more thorough calculation then overpass did, I don't know what to tell ya...

 

[MadLuke]

no support for the idea that Gretzky was unable to score vs. tougher defensive teams. These four seasons, he was scoring at a 60-goal pace vs. League-average defensive teams, and scoring at a 40-goal pace vs. the top teams and the top defensive teams.

I mean maybe the stats was made in good faith but what is going on here....

What I stronger support for the idea that Gretzky scoring went down quite bit against the better defense/teams (or to turn it around, particularly good at taking advantage of the non good teams weakness...., with that nice +50% scoring jump)

As long as I take the unable to score as a typical Internet hyperbole, you would not engage in that level of strawmen here right.

 

[overpass]

The above stats about Gretzky vs. top-teams seem a little weird to me, and when a poster is using ice-time ice-time “estimations” to conclude that late-80s’ Gretzky was inferior at ES goal-scoring to Denis Savard (WTF?), I start to feel the stats are a little sus.

Gretzky was on the ice for far more EV goals against than his competitors in this time period. It's not exactly a stretch to think he played a lot more ice time than they did.

Let me give you some simple stats that you can easily verify from each player's hockey-reference page.

For 1985-86 to 1990-91, total goals against minus power play goals against for each player.

Player, (TGA-PGA)
Gretzky 632
Hawerchuk 541
Yzerman 510
Nicholls 507
Lemieux 483
Lafontaine 403
Savard 389
Messier 388

Why was Gretzky on the ice for so many more goals against, if not because he played more ice time? His teams were middle of the pack defensively. and better than the teams of the four players following him in the list above.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Hasn't somebody verified this methodology with tape and found it to be generally accurate?

 

[MadLuke]

As usual Lemieux require a bit of per game adjustment.

He was at a 574 goals against pace per 452 games. (would make sense for him to be number 2 in ice time during that time)

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Hasn't somebody verified this methodology with tape and found it to be generally accurate?

Yes. Both Iain Fyffe (former HFBoards member and hockey author/researcher) and I have independently tested that methodology. It's highly accurate (it's not perfect, of course, but it's generally quite close).

 

[The Panther]

For 1985-86 to 1990-91, total goals against minus power play goals against for each player.

Player, (TGA-PGA)
Gretzky 632
Hawerchuk 541
Yzerman 510
Nicholls 507
Lemieux 483
Lafontaine 403
Savard 389
Messier 388

The stats I'm using (above) don't include 1985-86 or 1986-87. Not that I'm on board with the scoring implications of your system (I'm not, for reasons I'll explain below), but just to break this down for my own chosen 1987-88 to 1990-91 period, ES goals-against per-game:
1.43 Gretzky
1.32 Lemieux
1.24 Yzerman

The diff. between Gretzky / Lemieux here is about one ES goal against every ten games, while the diff. between Lemieux and Yzerman is about one every 11 or 12 games. So, they're all pretty close. Gretzky played on one middle-of-the-pack defensive team ('88 Oilers), one pretty good one ('91 Kings), and two trainwreck ones ('89 and '90 Kings). Lemieux played on all bad defensive teams, basically. Yzerman has one year here with a strong defensive team ('88 Wings), and maybe three with a fairly poor one.

Why was Gretzky on the ice for so many more goals against, if not because he played more ice time?

I don't doubt that Gretzky played a lot of ice-time in this period, and possibly more than other forwards (though I'm not convinced that he played more than Lemieux, or Yzerman in 1988-89).

However, the supposition that he played more ice-time (than, say, Denis Savard or whoever) and that ALL of that extra ice-time is equally fair-game to judge his ability to score goals at even-strength is a silly conclusion. Players who play huge amounts of ice-time aren't going all-out 100% every shift on the ice, trying to score with the same intensity all the time. That might be a fair (if still speculatory) conclusion if Gretzky had been playing 19 minutes a game, all at ES and PP. But he was playing 25 minutes or whatever. Imagine a Kings' game in 1990 -- L.A. takes two penalties in a row, and Gretzky helps kills off, say, two minutes of that PK situation. When Robitaille and Gretzky go out for their next regular shifts respectively, Robitaille is fresh as a spring-chicken, having sat on the bench for the past five shifts. But Gretzky (and a few others) are tired, having just killed penalties. If LA is up 5-1, Gretzky isn't going out with the same energy to score as Denis Savard in Montreal is, where he's playing fewer minutes on a 4-line rotation and not killing penalties.

As another (fairly silly, I know) example, look at the Oilers this season in the calendar year 2025. During this period, the guy with the 2nd-best ES scoring results is... Jeff Skinner, who is frequently a healthy scratch. The reason his ES scoring results look good (besides that he's been on a bit of a minor hot streak lately) is that he plays, like, 10 minutes a game and is healthy scratched a lot, meaning we're getting serious "bang for buck" when he's on the ice. His ES scoring so far this year, if based on ice-time alone, is better than Connor McDavid's.

So it's a silly example, but the point is that players who play the most ice-time minutes aren't going to have equal offensive intensity per minute. Every minute isn't equal, if you will.

What I stronger support for the idea that Gretzky scoring went down quite bit against the better defense/teams (or to turn it around, particularly good at taking advantage of the non good teams weakness...., with that nice +50% scoring jump)

You may have missed the part where Gretzky was scoring goals at higher rates vs. average-level defensive teams than against lowest-level defensive teams...

 

[MadLuke]

You may have missed the part where Gretzky was scoring goals at higher rates vs. average-level defensive teams than against lowest-level defensive teams...

But the point than lower against the best (than either mid or lowest) show how strange it is to say there is no support for the idea that Gretzky scoring went down against better defense and maybe more than the average superstars, that directly in line with the idea.

 

[The Panther]

But the point than lower against the best (than either mid or lowest) show how strange it is to say there is no support for the idea that Gretzky scoring went down against better defense and maybe more than the average superstars, that directly in line with the idea.

Okay, I get what you're saying, but my argument here is premised on my doubt that Gretzky's range of scoring vs. said teams changed during this period of the late-80s / early-90s.

So, to remind everyone, I already looked at Gretzky from ’88 to ’91. I’ll show those stats again, but let’s add in Lemieux and Yzerman just for interest’s sake (I don’t have enough time to do this for other players, but if anyone wants to, have at ‘er…). The point, however, is to compare Wayne’s levels of scoring changes, if any, vs. top-, middle-, and bottom-level defense from the 1984-1987 period to the 1988-1991 period.

1983-84 through 1986-87

Goals-per-game by Strength-of-Opponents
Gretzky vs. Top Teams = 0.75 GPG
Gretzky vs. Middle Teams = 0.90 GPG
Gretzky vs. Bottom Teams = 0.94 GPG
(= 25% less from vs. top to vs. bottom)

Yzerman vs. Top Teams = 0.36 GPG
Yzerman vs. Middle Teams = 0.38 GPG
Yzerman vs. Bottom Teams = 0.42 GPG
(= 17% less from vs. top to vs. bottom)

(Lemieux is only from 1984-85, of course, so his is only a 3-season aggregate):
Lemieux vs. Top Teams = 0.51 GPG
Lemieux vs. Middle Teams = 1.00 GPG
Lemieux vs. Bottom Teams = 0.67 GPG
(= 31% less from vs. top to vs. bottom)

Goals-per-game by Defensive-Opponents
Gretzky vs. Top Defences = 0.74 GPG
Gretzky vs. Middle Defences = 0.81 GPG
Gretzky vs. Bottom Defences = 0.99 GPG
(= 34% less from vs. top to vs. bottom)

Yzerman vs. Top Defences = 0.43 GPG
Yzerman vs. Middle Defences = 0.34 GPG
Yzerman vs. Bottom Defences = 0.42 GPG
(= +2% MORE from vs. top to vs. bottom)

Lemieux vs. Top Defences = 0.60 GPG
Lemieux vs. Middle Defences = 0.60 GPG
Lemieux vs. Bottom Defences = 0.81 GPG
(= 35% less from vs. top to vs. bottom)

1987-88 through 1990-91

Goals-per-game by Strength-of-Opponents
Gretzky vs. Top Teams = 0.52 GPG
Gretzky vs. Middle Teams = 0.64 GPG
Gretzky vs. Bottom Teams = 0.66 GPG
(= 27% less from vs. top to vs. bottom)

Yzerman vs. Top Teams = 0.82 GPG
Yzerman vs. Middle Teams = 0.78 GPG
Yzerman vs. Bottom Teams = 0.69 GPG
(= 16% MORE from vs. top to vs. bottom)

Lemieux vs. Top Teams = 0.73 GPG
Lemieux vs. Middle Teams = 1.05 GPG
Lemieux vs. Bottom Teams = 0.86 GPG
(= 18% less from vs. top to vs. bottom)

Goals-per-game by Defensive-Opponents
Gretzky vs. Top Defences = 0.48 GPG
Gretzky vs. Middle Defences = 0.75 GPG
Gretzky vs. Bottom Defences = 0.59 GPG
(= 23% less from vs. top to vs. bottom)

Yzerman vs. Top Defences = 0.68 GPG
Yzerman vs. Middle Defences = 0.79 GPG
Yzerman vs. Bottom Defences = 0.78 GPG
(= 15% less from vs. top to vs. bottom)

Lemieux vs. Top Defences = 0.86 GPG
Lemieux vs. Middle Defences = 0.94 GPG
Lemieux vs. Bottom Defences = 0.92 GPG
(= 7% less from vs. top to vs. bottom)


So, a few things are interesting here:

-- GRETZKY: In the latter period, the difference between his goal-scoring vs. top-teams/defenses and bottom teams/defenses is actually less than in the earlier period. That is, when he was still in his goal-scoring peak years (’84 to ’87 being some of that), he scored goals at a more disproportionate rate (in terms of strong opponent vs. weak) than in the later period. (If he were now having more trouble scoring goals because of stronger team defenses, surely this would not be the case? He would instead be scoring more of his goals, per opportunity, vs. the weaker teams than he had been in the past. But he wasn’t.)

-- LEMIEUX had a little more trouble scoring at normal rates vs. top teams in his first three seasons… but that’s his first three seasons, so maybe not unexpected.

-- LEMIEUX and YZERMAN were both right at their goal-scoring peaks in the latter period, so not surprisingly they both look great. Yzerman in particular has fairly astonishing results in terms of goal-scoring vs. harder opposition (relative to his own standard). He scored goals at a higher rate against top teams than against bottom teams in the ’88 to ’91 period. (However, he still scored less vs. top defenses than against bottom ones.)


(NOTE: Although these statistic should be accurate, they also are not that significant by virtue of the somewhat arbitrary three levels I’ve used. For the ‘top’ clubs, I used the top-6 of the period, and for the middle and bottom clubs, I used teams 8-14 and 15-21 respectively (i.e., 7 clubs in each level. The idea is just to give a broad picture.)
_________________________

So, getting back to Gretzky’s goal scoring, this is what I’ve established up to now in terms of the reasons Gretzky’s goal-scoring declined (in ’88 to ’91) from previously superhuman to merely ‘great’:

-- It wasn’t because he could only score vs. weaker defenses (as the stats above show).
-- It wasn’t because less of his shots were beating goalies (his shooting percentage didn’t change the first few years in L.A…. In fact, it was on par with Brett Hull’s).
-- It wasn’t because he couldn’t produce overall points or ES points (as late as 1991, he was having the highest ES points-seasons in NHL history).

-- It was partly because he took fewer shots (from 337 shots/season to 263 shots/season in the latter period).
-- It was partly because he was gradually changing to be more of a ‘perimeter’ player who didn’t drive the net, and thus fewer of his shots were from in close.

The shots on goal is significant. Per his shooting percentage over the latter period, if he had been taking the extra shots that he was getting during the ’84 to ’87 period, he’d likely have scored 13 more goals per season. Thus, his first three years in L.A. change from 47 goals / 80 games to 60 goals / 80 games.

As to why Gretzky shifted to the perimeter more and rarely charged the net from around the late 1980s, I could only speculate. However, we should remember some things that were happening in this period: As late as 1987, Gretzky was still saying that he planned to retire young, and hockey guides (like one I had as a kid) stated that it was “impossible to imagine him playing past his 30th birthday.” The knee-injury in late December 1987 coincided with his engagement to his future wife, and after his marriage he was on his way to L.A. to start a new life in a new city with a baby on the way and suddenly a huge contract. From that point, a longer career spread out in front of him with big money. I would imagine from this point, one of his priorities was self-preservation, which likely resulted in taking fewer and fewer chances with the body.

One thing I can see as a point of dispute on this thread is the REASON Gretzky started taking fewer shots. That is indeed harder to identify. Is it (as some claim) that defenses were better and thus he couldn’t get into position to shoot as much? Or is it (as I would claim) that he wasn’t as willing to get into the shooting lanes as often due to self-preservation? It might be a combination of both of those.

However, I maintain that the notion of Gretzky scoring fewer goals because of better League defenses / goaltender / player-depth in the 1987-88 to 1990-91 period is a nonsense.