German Prospects for the NHL Draft

[pgfan66]

Sorry to say, but it will take me a little bit longer. I hurt my back over the weekend and am currently unable to sit up.
And typing this or anything while lying down is annoying, actually painful and surprisingly taxing.

I can share my top 5 for 2022 as they are the only ones I can realitstically see getting drafted. Not that I expect them all to get drafted.

1. Julian Lutz - The only guy I am pretty sure will get drafted, despite missing most of the season.
2a. Luca Hauf
2b. Roman Kechter - I think both Hauf and Kechter could be drafted, many lesser prospects have been drafted in the past, but it is far from a sure thing.
4. Rayan Bettahar - He seems like the kind of dman that teams like to take with a late round pick. Good size, hard shot, a bit of a mean streak, but I don't really expect him to get picked.
5. Simon Wolf - I suck at goalie evaluation and Wolf mostly moved up the ranking because many of the players I had previously ranked ahead of him disappointed me since the last ranking. (On here I had always ranked goalies separately, but in my combined rankings I had him around 10 or 11 before)
But Wolf's track record is not bad, he played well for the most part at the U18 and I see a small chance that a team might take a flyer on him.

I really want to finish the rest of the rankings soon, since this is not just about the guys with a shot at being drafted, but I fiugred the guys at the top were the most interesting ones.
The doctor said a few days bed rest and a couple of physical therapy sessions should be enough so I can at least sit again normally for a few hours every day, but I'll have to wait and see.

Typing this took me well over an hour, so I won't post much in the coming days.

Get well soon!

 

[pgfan66]

Sorry to say, but it will take me a little bit longer. I hurt my back over the weekend and am currently unable to sit up.
And typing this or anything while lying down is annoying, actually painful and surprisingly taxing.

I can share my top 5 for 2022 as they are the only ones I can realitstically see getting drafted. Not that I expect them all to get drafted.

1. Julian Lutz - The only guy I am pretty sure will get drafted, despite missing most of the season.
2a. Luca Hauf
2b. Roman Kechter - I think both Hauf and Kechter could be drafted, many lesser prospects have been drafted in the past, but it is far from a sure thing.
4. Rayan Bettahar - He seems like the kind of dman that teams like to take with a late round pick. Good size, hard shot, a bit of a mean streak, but I don't really expect him to get picked.
5. Simon Wolf - I suck at goalie evaluation and Wolf mostly moved up the ranking because many of the players I had previously ranked ahead of him disappointed me since the last ranking. (On here I had always ranked goalies separately, but in my combined rankings I had him around 10 or 11 before)
But Wolf's track record is not bad, he played well for the most part at the U18 and I see a small chance that a team might take a flyer on him.

I really want to finish the rest of the rankings soon, since this is not just about the guys with a shot at being drafted, but I fiugred the guys at the top were the most interesting ones.
The doctor said a few days bed rest and a couple of physical therapy sessions should be enough so I can at least sit again normally for a few hours every day, but I'll have to wait and see.

Typing this took me well over an hour, so I won't post much in the coming days.

What is it that you see in Hauf? Every time I watch him, I’m baffled by the fact that he’s at all talked about as a draft prospect. He has shown absolutely nothing that I thought made him draft-worthy. I know there isn’t much to choose from in Germany this year but I’d rather have Hübner or Oswald or anyone else, really, than drafting Hauf.

 

[Maverick41]

Get well soon!

Thanks, it has been a painful and stressful almost 2 weeks. It went from bad back to bad leg (short stint in the hospital) to short notice business trip. And the last couple of days I was just exhausted. But now I'm well (apart from struggling with the heat), and will get back to finishing my lists. I will also answer your question about what I like about Luca Hauf.
The only thing that might distract me from getting everything done is that I finally got my Xbox Series X, but even with that distraction I should be all caught up here by the end of next week.

 

[Maverick41]

I just updated the rankings for this year. And I hope that I will be able to add another one every few days, though the later ones may take a little longer, yet.

 

[GermanSpitfire]

I just updated the rankings for this year. And I hope that I will be able to add another one every few days, though the later ones may take a little longer, yet.

Glad you showed some love to Mahkovec even though he is from Slovenia.

I too was impressed from my viewing of him this season and if I was being completely unbiased, I'd say he impressed me more than Hauf.

He is without much doubt in my mind the best Slovenian to be eligible for the draft in 15 years, Jan Mursak is the last notable player.

I hope he gets his name called. I love seeing non-traditional hockey markets producing NHL draft picks.

I also think that Lutz will be selected in the first 3 rounds of the draft, whether he deserves it or not is up for discussion but his results on combine day impressed a lot of NHL people. His combination of size and skating ability leave scouts drooling. I personally would be shocked if he was drafted outside round 3.

 

[Maverick41]

Glad you showed some love to Mahkovec even though he is from Slovenia.

I too was impressed from my viewing of him this season and if I was being completely unbiased, I'd say he impressed me more than Hauf.

He is without much doubt in my mind the best Slovenian to be eligible for the draft in 15 years, Jan Mursak is the last notable player.

I hope he gets his name called. I love seeing non-traditional hockey markets producing NHL draft picks.

I also think that Lutz will be selected in the first 3 rounds of the draft, whether he deserves it or not is up for discussion but his results on combine day impressed a lot of NHL people. His combination of size and skating ability leave scouts drooling. I personally would be shocked if he was drafted outside round 3.

If I had focussed more on him, from the beginning, I could see him even higher in the rankings, but as it is he was really impressive in what I saw, and I am very curious to see where he will play next season. If he had been playing in Germany longer so Krefeld could have given him a "Förderlizenz", he would definitely have played a significant number of games for Frankfurt in DEL 2. But I don't think dominating in the Oberliga with a lot of ice time has hurt his development.

With Lutz I am still a bit hesitant, because he just missed so many games and also practice time that I am just not comfortable to bet on him being an early round pick. If I had to guess I'd say he goes between #90 (very late 3rd round) and #150 (mid 5th round). I definitely could be way off, or a little off, but I usually err on the side of caution, when things get close to the draft.
I am often way more optimistic when the draft is further away.

 

[Maverick41]

Just updated the ranking for 2023.
Feel free to ask any questions you have about rankings of certain players, or point out if you think I missed anybody.

For 2024 I had only posted a tier list / watch list of players of interest so far. Tomorrow I will post my first attempt at a ranking for that class.

After that it will probably take me a bit longer before I am ready to update any of the other lists.

 

[Poda]

Thanks a lot for all your effort. Considering all recent rankings I have seen, have Lutz somewhere between 26 and 55, your B-rating seems quite conservative. Do you feel he is overrated by others or are you just generally reluctant to predict an early draft position for your fellow countrymen?

 

[Maverick41]

Thanks a lot for all your effort. Considering all recent rankings I have seen, have Lutz somewhere between 26 and 55, your B-rating seems quite conservative. Do you feel he is overrated by others or are you just generally reluctant to predict an early draft position for your fellow countrymen?

In general I get more conservative the closer I get to the draft, but with Lutz it's a bit of a special case this year.
Because he missed so much of this season, I have not had a chance to watch enough games of him to confidently put him in the A category. I am just not in a position to know or have a good guess how much missing almost the entire season hurt his development.
That's why I am extra cautious in this case.

 

[Halfdan]

Samuel Dube is no longer a candidate for the draft. His career is over.

 

[Maverick41]

What is it that you see in Hauf? Every time I watch him, I’m baffled by the fact that he’s at all talked about as a draft prospect. He has shown absolutely nothing that I thought made him draft-worthy. I know there isn’t much to choose from in Germany this year but I’d rather have Hübner or Oswald or anyone else, really, than drafting Hauf.

Sorry, I almost forgot that I still owe you an answer on this.

I think Hauf is a bit underrated, because there is not that much flash to his game and his skating could hold him back. But most of the times I have seen him, I saw a player with a high hockey IQ making smart plays especially in the offensive zone and also in transition from defense to offense. He knows where he needs to be on the ice (but he needs to improve his skating to make sure he can get there at the higher levels).
I also like his vision and his passing. They are not necessarily highlight reel cross ice feeds or no look passes, but smart, simple and useful passes creating chances for his teammates. I like his stick/puck-handling and his poise with the puck (will be interesting to see if he can maintain that at higher levels).
His shot is decent, neither a strength or a weakness right now.
His defensive play is suspect at times. Improved skating and coaching should be able to help him there. From interviews he also seems to be very aware of the areas he needs to improve and he appears like a coachable guy.

I don't think he will ever be a line driver at the highest levels, but he could become a very good complimentary player at the DEL level and even for the national team, if he pans out. And so far he has adapted well to every level he has played at.
There is of course a decent chance that he tops out as a DEL / DEL2 tweener, but I like these players with good hockey IQ as a basis, because that is hard to teach later on and Hauf has that in my eyes. As of now I expect only Lutz to be drafted and I think Hauf will end up as good DEL player who may get a chance to play for national team occasionally, though not on a regular basis.

It will be really interesting to see if he can adapt to the WHL and succeed there, when so many of his countrymen have failed to establish themselves there in recent years. And when I say succeed, I don't mean like Draisaitl, I mean like Eisenschmid who did well enough and eventually came back much improved.

Anyway, these are my thoughts. Feel free to disagree, I am more often wrong than right after all.

Cheers.

 

[pgfan66]

Sorry, I almost forgot that I still owe you an answer on this.

I think Hauf is a bit underrated, because there is not that much flash to his game and his skating could hold him back. But most of the times I have seen him, I saw a player with a high hockey IQ making smart plays especially in the offensive zone and also in transition from defense to offense. He knows where he needs to be on the ice (but he needs to improve his skating to make sure he can get there at the higher levels).
I also like his vision and his passing. They are not necessarily highlight reel cross ice feeds or no look passes, but smart, simple and useful passes creating chances for his teammates. I like his stick/puck-handling and his poise with the puck (will be interesting to see if he can maintain that at higher levels).
His shot is decent, neither a strength or a weakness right now.
His defensive play is suspect at times. Improved skating and coaching should be able to help him there. From interviews he also seems to be very aware of the areas he needs to improve and he appears like a coachable guy.

I don't think he will ever be a line driver at the highest levels, but he could become a very good complimentary player at the DEL level and even for the national team, if he pans out. And so far he has adapted well to every level he has played at.
There is of course a decent chance that he tops out as a DEL / DEL2 tweener, but I like these players with good hockey IQ as a basis, because that is hard to teach later on and Hauf has that in my eyes. As of now I expect only Lutz to be drafted and I think Hauf will end up as good DEL player who may get a chance to play for national team occasionally, though not on a regular basis.

It will be really interesting to see if he can adapt to the WHL and succeed there, when so many of his countrymen have failed to establish themselves there in recent years. And when I say succeed, I don't mean like Draisaitl, I mean like Eisenschmid who did well enough and eventually came back much improved.

Anyway, these are my thoughts. Feel free to disagree, I am more often wrong than right after all.

Cheers.

Thanks for the detailed response. That all makes a lot of sense. I guess what I missed in you ranking Hauf as the 2nd best German prospect is that you didn’t say he’d be drafted or ever play in the NHL haha.

I actually agree with most things you said. Except I never thought his stickhandling was above average. And as a player with below-average skating, average stickhandling, and an average-at-best shot, all while measuring 5’11”, I don’t really like his chances. More often than not, players don’t develop skills they didn’t already have at a younger age. So while I agree that hockey IQ is the most important tool and skating can be improved quite a bit, I don’t think he’ll ever develop high-end skill. And that’s what’ll prevent him from being an impact player in the WHL or later the DEL.

 

[Maverick41]

Updated the rest of the posts on the first page, but that is somewhat incomplete work, as I did not get everything done that I had planned in terms of watching video and sifting through stats. But since those kids are still many years away and most of them will likely not be relevant as prospects by the time their draft year or even their draft -1 or -2 comes around, I am not too bothered by it.

I will now move on to the next season and get things set up for that, but also take a little break and focus on my actual job for a while.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

The draft is upon us. For Germany, it's looking like Lutz is the only sure fire selection for this draft and I'm tipping on him going as of the second round and no later than pick 75.

But I'd gander that the players who have the best chance at being taken in the later rounds are Blank, Wolf, and .... Szuber.

As for other players who are native German speakers, obviously Marco Kasper (Round 1) and Lian Bichsel (between 15-45) are surefire selections.

Who have you got?

 

[GermanSpitfire]

Julin Lutz goes at #43.

 

[GermanSpitfire]

Maksymillian Szuber goes #163 to Arizona. Didn’t expect that.

 

[pgfan66]

Maksymillian Szuber goes #163 to Arizona. Didn’t expect that.

I didn’t either. But I like the pick a lot.

 

[Maverick41]

It may have helped Szuber that Arizona had their scout watching Lutz and saw a lot of him as well.

I think even as an overager, he is still a few years away if he ever makes it, but he certainly has the tools that would make him an interesting project for an NHL team.

Overall I am not too thrilled that both Lutz and Szuber were picked by the Yotes. Nothing against the team, but I remember watching a lot of Yotes broadcasts back when Rieder was playing there. And they were often painful to watch and listen to. In general I don't like watching the other teams' feed.

But maybe both bust (as NHLers) and I won't have to worry about it.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

0 surprise that Szuber was taken.

He was already very solid for the RB Juniors and when you join a club like Munich as a 19-year-old and go from a blip on the radar to a regular top six Dman in the DEL, this gets noticed by NHL people.

More importantly however may be that he had a 4 Nations Tournament in Norway in November where he was the topscorer. 6 points in 3 games. Word got out that he needs to be given some attention, even from such a minor sample size.

But it is logical that he was taken by a team that had a LOT of picks. Those teams have more currency to role the dice with.

 

[pgfan66]

I wonder what Szuber’s situation will be like next season. He’s probably going into the year as their 7/8 guy behind Abeltshauser, Blum, Boyle, McKiernan, Redmond, Seidenberg.

 

[Halfdan]

0 surprise that Szuber was taken.

He was already very solid for the RB Juniors and when you join a club like Munich as a 19-year-old and go from a blip on the radar to a regular top six Dman in the DEL, this gets noticed by NHL people.

More importantly however may be that he had a 4 Nations Tournament in Norway in November where he was the topscorer. 6 points in 3 games. Word got out that he needs to be given some attention, even from such a minor sample size.

But it is logical that he was taken by a team that had a LOT of picks. Those teams have more currency to role the dice with.

In that case, the Coyotes' Germany connections kick in: Scout Teal Fowler

 

[GermanSpitfire]

So next year the only real notable name is Julius Sumpf unless Fischer can play the whole season as he did against Switzerland during the u16s last year.

 

[Maverick41]

So next year the only real notable name is Julius Sumpf unless Fischer can play the whole season as he did against Switzerland during the u16s last year.

Pretty much. There are a few kids that may turn into DEL players, but not really anyone with NHL upside, as it stands now.
Maybe a goalie like Willerscheid could get there, but I am not that good with goalies, so even though I liked what I have seen from him, and to a slightly lesser extent from Pertuch as well, I struggle to really assess their potential.

Fischer aside (if he stays in Kaufbeuren) most of the talent seems to once again be concentrated in Mannheim (Brandl, Niehus, Bicker) and Salzburg/Munich (Sumpf, Ruckdäschel, Schreiner, Samanski, Hupach).

I will probably focus more on the 2024 and 2025 draft classes next season than the 2023 one, because 2024 looks much better right now, and 2025 is still a mystery to me, for the most part.

 

[GermanSpitfire]

Pretty much. There are a few kids that may turn into DEL players, but not really anyone with NHL upside, as it stands now.
Maybe a goalie like Willerscheid could get there, but I am not that good with goalies, so even though I liked what I have seen from him, and to a slightly lesser extent from Pertuch as well, I struggle to really assess their potential.

Fischer aside (if he stays in Kaufbeuren) most of the talent seems to once again be concentrated in Mannheim (Brandl, Niehus, Bicker) and Salzburg/Munich (Sumpf, Ruckdäschel, Schreiner, Samanski, Hupach).

I will probably focus more on the 2024 and 2025 draft classes next season than the 2023 one, because 2024 looks much better right now, and 2025 is still a mystery to me, for the most part.

I think it’s also worth noting that the ‘05 age group isn’t weak. It just so happens that the best of the age group are late birthdays so they’re not draft eligible until 2024.

 

[Huusko]

How are the chances of Niklas Hübner next year, if he can improve in Finland?