Generic Tank Thread - The end is nigh...

[David71]

4 more games after tmr and the season comes to an end. FINALLY>

 

[Havre]

The difference between having a Top 3 pick or not this year could he the difference of having a franchise player or not. We need to lose.

I love how this happens every year. It all seems so predictable before the draft which players will be top players and who will end up being just good. Now it has become a "truth" that you got to pick top 3 and that the 4th pick is far less valuable then the 3rd.

Sure I would rather pick 3rd, but the idea that the difference in value is "that special" this year I don't believe for a second.

 

[valkynax]

Atrocious tank night, one of the worst.

But consider how satanically lucky we've been for the past month in terms of tanking, one bad night won't be of any major concerns.

Repair the tank here and there and we march on.

 

[Serac]

I love how this happens every year. It all seems so predictable before the draft which players will be top players and who will end up being just good. Now it has become a "truth" that you got to pick top 3 and that the 4th pick is far less valuable then the 3rd.

Sure I would rather pick 3rd, but the idea that the difference in value is "that special" this year I don't believe for a second.

It is true this year
Matthews, Laine, and Jesse are in a tier by themselves

In previous years it's not always the case
Take the Mackinnon year
That had a really good top 4

And each year is usually different
It just so happens that this year happens to be a year where the top 3 look to be mega stars

 

[me2]

It is true this year
Matthews, Laine, and Jesse are in a tier by themselves

In previous years it's not always the case
Take the Mackinnon year
That had a really good top 4

And each year is usually different
It just so happens that this year happens to be a year where the top 3 look to be mega stars

Or McEichel had two. While there is no guarantee that McDavid or Eichel end up the best player, but you want to be grabbing one of the two if you can to maximize your chances.

 

[Zombotron]

Atrocious tank night, one of the worst.

But consider how satanically lucky we've been for the past month in terms of tanking, one bad night won't be of any major concerns.

Repair the tank here and there and we march on.

It's true. Someone must have sold their soul or dabbled in the dark arts. Was it one of you?

 

[Breakers]

THANK GOD Anaheim and LA are in a dog fight for positioning so they won't be resting their players yet.


------

Our "ROW" is still amazing in case of a tie in points, suck it Calgary and Winnipeg.

 

[Havre]

It is true this year
Matthews, Laine, and Jesse are in a tier by themselves

In previous years it's not always the case
Take the Mackinnon year
That had a really good top 4

And each year is usually different
It just so happens that this year happens to be a year where the top 3 look to be mega stars

Let's see. It is true every year. Top 2, top 3, top 4 whatever. Always top something. And the more it is repeated by the media and on forums the "truer" it becomes.

Early days for the class of 2013 still, but I don't understand how that is a good example. If anything it just proves my point in my opinion. If it was "top 4" or "nothing" that year how does that work with Monahan? Maybe Drouin becomes a better player than Monahan in the end, but I could just as easily see the opposite being true. Even Ristolainen might become a better player than Jones.

 

[me2]

THANK GOD Anaheim and LA are in a dog fight for positioning so they won't be resting their players yet.


------

Our "ROW" is still amazing in case of a tie in points, suck it Calgary and Winnipeg.

4th place odds 9.50% 9.6835% 9.8159% 3.1486% 27.3077% 33.1858% 7.3584% 0.0000%

40% chance of being 6/7 . not to mention some weak top 3 odds.

 

[a Fool]

It's true. Someone must have sold their soul or dabbled in the dark arts. Was it one of you?

Pros: I will walk the Earth for all time, and we will draft Patrik Laine in the 2016 draft.

Cons: I cannot be exposed to sunlight and must drink the blood of men to survive.

 

[Verviticus]

When I also failed to make the pros my family practically disowned me. We still hardly talk. Hockey blood may run in the veins of my family but I suppose empathy is a scarce commodity.

wtf? this is absurd

 

[dwarf]

Pros: I will walk the Earth for all time, and we will draft Patrik Laine in the 2016 draft.

Cons: I cannot be exposed to sunlight and must drink the blood of men to survive.

If we draft in the top three, you can feast on dwarf.

This management team will find a way to miss the cut off of top end talent and end up picking 6th.

 

[palefire]

Oof:

Draft odds based on Monte Carlo model at http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html

Likelihood of overall finish:

23: 0.3%
24: 2.2%
25: 21.4%
26: 21.0%
27: 19.9%
28: 15.9%
29: 11.3%
30: 8.0%

Likelihood of draft pick:

1: 10.4%
2: 10.3%
3: 10.2%
4: 10.7%
5: 16.3%
6: 20.0%
7: 15.8%
8: 5.6%
9: 0.7%

Odds of top three pick: 30.9%
Median draft position: 5
Likeliest draft position: 6

 

[palefire]

Odds of top 3 pick based on Monte Carlo model at http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHLlottery.html

Edmonton: 43.2%
Toronto: 38.0%
Columbus: 34.5%
Vancouver: 30.9%
Winnipeg: 29.7%
Calgary: 27.7%
Buffalo: 19.7%
Arizona: 19.1%
Montreal: 16.2%
Ottawa: 11.6%
New Jersey: 9.1%
Colorado: 8.4%
Carolina: 7.6%
Detroit: 2.4%
Boston: 1.0%
Philadelphia: 0.4%
Minnesota: 0.3%

 

[CaptainChef]

Not sure about a lottery system that provides for the 30th place team only having a 20 percent chance of winning the draft lottery....but whatever happens in the last five games, Canucks will get a good player, hopefully an impact d-man.

Just be thankful its only 20% because good chance it could be Edmonton in last place

 

[Cocoa Crisp]

All this angst over the consensus top 3 this draft. Is it justified? Are all 3 more or less equivalent? Are any of them franchise players in the making or more like a bluechip, good chance to be a top 6 forward?

I'm lazy and haven't done my homework wading through the Prospects board. Hoping for an executive summary to see whether the tanking is really worth it this year.

 

[J Canuck]

I'll cheer for a win every game and take satisfaction in a loss as it helps for drafting. Win-win for me.

I'd feel dirty cheering for the Canucks to lose and since I'm not at the rink, cheering has zero effect on the outcome anyway. I do feel a tiny bit dirty about cheering Alberta teams these days, but have no problem cheering for them to play in 3 point games.

 

[Haagen Dazs]

All this angst over the consensus top 3 this draft. Is it justified? Are all 3 more or less equivalent? Are any of them franchise players in the making or more like a bluechip, good chance to be a top 6 forward?

I'm lazy and haven't done my homework wading through the Prospects board. Hoping for an executive summary to see whether the tanking is really worth it this year.

The general consensus seems to be the following:

Tier 1
Matthews
Laine

Tier 2
Puljujarvi

Tier 3
Dubois
Chychyrn
Tkachuk

There is very little separation between Matthews and Laine

I thought going into this season, Puljujarvi would be competing with Matthews for top spot, however he had a horrific first half and still only ended up scoring something like 2 even strength goals in Liiga. So that's definitely a red flag, however he has all the tools needed to become a special player, hes just the least likely out of the top 3 to do it. I wouldn't be shocked if Dubois ended up the better player though.

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

Our odds just dropped 6% overnight

 

[Nucker101]

Yeah, at this point I'd suggest for everyone to expect pick 5 or 6. Anyone hoping for a top 3 pick will likely be devastated.

 

[PM]

Our odds just dropped 6% overnight

Blah. This is why I don't cheer for wins. No one will remember last night's game a few months from now.

 

[CanaFan]

Blah. This is why I don't cheer for wins. No one will remember last night's game a few months from now.

Agree. I'd prefer to cheer for 15 years of an elite talent and maybe even being the key piece to a Stanley Cup over a single regular season game in a season that's already a dumpster fire.

Last night was bad for this franchise and nothing but. Still bewilders me that people can take any positive out of it.

 

[Jarko2004]

You know, the Canucks are a team in recent decline (big time), but the Flames? What's their excuse? They've muddled for years and have already assembled their young talent. They just plain stink of being an Alberta NHL team.

 

[PM]

The Flames have only been rebuilding for a few years and they still managed to beat us last year and are currently better than us this year. What really hurt them was wasting the three years before their rebuild spinning their tires. Sounds awfully familiar...

 

[Jimson Hogarth*]

The Flames have only been rebuilding for a few years and they still managed to beat us last year and are currently better than us this year. What really hurt them was wasting the three years before their rebuild spinning their tires. Sounds awfully familiar...

A few years? Bro that teams been baaaaad for a while now!