GDT: Game #50: Leafs @ Jackets 7pm ET

[nsleaf]

The chances of scoring from a high danger area is almost the same between Matthews and a grinder in the league. That’s why it’s considered a high danger area….

What makes goal scorers/snipers valuable is there ability to beat the goal from a low or medium danger area.

Analytics aren’t meant to replace the eye test, but rather compliment it, despite what the “lawl nerds” crowd seem to think. And most analytics are compiled from a collection tangible evidence, so I don’t know how you consider it subjective.

The fact that you think analytics are more subjective than the eye test is laughable.

Can analytics be considered tangible eevidence?

 

[2 Slick]

The blue jackets goalie is 30 years old and making his 2nd NHL start in 4 years so we know how this goes

Yep, 67 shot shutout coming up.

 

[Cleetus]

The blue jackets goalie is 30 years old and making his 2nd NHL start in 4 years so we know how this goes

George Vezina incoming

 

[ShaneFalco]

Yep, 67 shot shutout coming up.

But we'll win the expected goals battle

 

[Mess]

I really haven't spent a great deal of time looking at the new stats.

Do they include shooting percentages? Age? Experience? Strength of shot? Speed of shot? Accuracy of shot? Things that can be quantified.

None of those things .. . Matthews has a 16.3 SH% and Justin Holl has a 2.8 SH% and if you give both players the same shot in the same spot then that counts as equal, because a single cell in a spread sheet that says HDSC doesn't distinguish between anything every single player is the same, its all about the spot on the ice where the shot originated from.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

I know it's not this Team's M.O. to play well on the 2nd game of a back to back but they better after that pathetic showing last night.

 

[NinjaKick]

unleash the Lybushkin

 

[MSZ]

Yep, 67 shot shutout coming up.

67...lol

 

[therealkoho]

I mean, that’s not even close to what we were talking about….

The "well...y'know" was in response to what you wrote, the rest was a stand alone thought, ok?

 

[Martin Skoula]

None of those things .. . Matthews has a 16.3 SH% and Justin Holl has a 2.8 SH% and if you give both players the same shot in the same spot then that counts as equal, because a single cell in a spread sheet that says HDSC doesn't distinguish between anything every single player is the same, its all about the spot on the ice where the shot originated from.

We can all agree that there's no reason for your defense to allow Justin Holl to shoot from the slot though regardless of how likely his shot is to go in. Your defense failed at their job, depending on the shooter's lack of skill to prevent a goal is not defense. If your team is constantly allowing a lot of HDSC it doesn't matter who is shooting those chances, someone on your D is not doing their job right. No defense is out there selectively playing aggressive against Ovi but letting their 4th line walk into the slot because they shoot worse.

 

[Havoc]

Fully expect a 6-1 win tonight if we're going by the Leafy way of things

 

[ULF_55]

I’m expecting a team playing with jam tonight.

And tea and scones? Butchart Gardens maybe?

Some will be right at home.

 

[Nooodles]

Fully expect a 6-1 win tonight if we're going by the Leafy way of things

6:1 lead after 2nd and losing it 6:8 to a zamboni driver is the Leafy way of things.

 

[MSZ]

Given how hot CBJ has been in the past 3 weeks, this is actually a huge 4 pt game assuming that the Leafs are dropping to one of the WC spots.

 

[Aashir]

The blue jackets goalie is 30 years old and making his 2nd NHL start in 4 years so we know how this goes

When did hasek become a 30 year old?

 

[The Podium]

We can all agree that there's no reason for your defense to allow Justin Holl to shoot from the slot though regardless of how likely his shot is to go in. Your defense failed at their job, depending on the shooter's lack of skill to prevent a goal is not defense. If your team is constantly allowing a lot of HDSC it doesn't matter who is shooting those chances, someone on your D is not doing their job right. No defense is out there selectively playing aggressive against Ovi but letting their 4th line walk into the slot because they shoot worse.

Also he is conveniently using the shooting % of a defensive D rather than any other forward, knowing the D has to beat a goalie from the lowest percentage spot on the ice.

If Holl is consistently shooting from the high/medium danger positions, like most forwards, his shooting % wouldn’t be 2.8%

In reality, you have to ask if Matthews has a 16.7 sh% because he has a better chance to score than a league average forward at 11% from the high danger area, or if his boost in shooting% is due to his ability to beat a goalie from low danger areas. I’d argue the latter.

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

I hate to say it but another loss is about to happen, and people are going to lose their minds and I don't want to even be on this forum for a while after tonights auto-loss.

Have I mentioned before that I'm always wrong?

It's just weird, felt like we could almost never lose, and now we're losing, and we should be fine and really all that matters is getting out of the first round.

Ok that's my 2 cents. Go Leafs Go!

 

[Diver3368]

Yep, 67 shot shutout coming up.

yeah but does he drive a Zamboni?

 

[MSZ]

yeah but does he drive a Zamboni?

Today is the 2nd anniversary of that zamboni game. Great day.

 

[stickty111]

Ilya makes his debut. Keefe is actually scratching Holl. Pleasently surprised.

 

[Macallan18]

And tea and scones? Butchart Gardens maybe?

Some will be right at home.

they have a fine afternoon tea at Butchart Gardens.
We should be feeding the Leafs some raw meat or something....

 

[Macallan18]

Ilya makes his debut. Keefe is actually scratching Holl. Pleasently surprised.

But what is the lineup? I assume Sandin is in, is Dermott playing on left side and Lilly maybe with Sandin as second pairing?

 

[Martin Skoula]

Also he is conveniently using the shooting % of a defensive D rather than any other forward, knowing the D has to beat a goalie from the lowest percentage spot on the ice.

If Holl is consistently shooting from the high/medium danger positions, like most forwards, his shooting % wouldn’t be 2.8%

In reality, you have to ask if Matthews has a 16.7 sh% because he has a better chance to score than a league average forward at 11% from the high danger area, or if his boost in shooting% is due to his ability to beat a goalie from low danger areas. I’d argue the latter.

It's mostly that Matthews is one of the best players in the league at getting shots from those areas to start with. His shot obviously let's him convert those better, but he gets a lot of looks in close.

 

[Burnie97]

With Holl out

So Mo Brodie,
Derm, Lub
Sandin, Lilly

Something like that

 

[Dough72]

Thanks and I'm guessing not all high danger shots are equal.

and that's the reason the new stats still don't look very accurate to me. Someone can correct this if it's wrong but the popular ones like xgf% all seem to be based around "hot spots" which are simply areas of the ice that a lot of goals are scored from. So if a player takes a few shots from those areas the stats conclude that he must have had a good game since he had some great scoring chances. The problem is that a big part of hockey strategy is to pass the puck across the ice quickly to catch the goalie out of position and shoot at a half open net. But half the time, maybe even the majority of the time, the goalie was not caught out of position in which case it was not a great scoring chance at all. Yet the stats still insist that it was and some fans will still see it as ultimate proofs.