GDT: Game #50: Leafs @ Jackets 7pm ET

[The Podium]

Well.......y'know!

back to back 3 goal losses, two sleepwalk no pushback games, although they were coming off a pretty impressive 10-12 games, but even so there's going to be another tonight I'm afraid

I mean, that’s not even close to what we were talking about….

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Not really, high danger save% means their ability to save a high danger shot. If there’s a high danger shot it reflects a defensive breakdown already.

The leafs are also 18th in HDCA so they actually limit high danger chances more than the majority of the league.

With that said, I don’t know if HDCA are more frequent recently.

The Leafs are 8th since December 1st (across all strengths; 7th at ES specifically) and 13th on the year. It has actually gone down since Campbell has struggled. Campbell is facing fewer high danger shots, etc. since December 1st.

Seems to be a trend for some reason... Our goalies do worse when our defense reduces the number of chances. Maybe it prevents our goalies from getting into the zone or something? They like to be busy, and suck when they are not. IDK, but our goalies better figure that crap out because Keefe is not going to tell his defense to start giving up more chances so his goalie can start making saves he should be making.

 

[The Podium]

The Leafs are 8th since December 1st (across all strengths; 7th at ES specifically) and 13th on the year. It has actually gone down since Campbell has struggled. Campbell is facing fewer high danger shots, etc. since December 1st.

Seems to be a trend for some reason... Our goalies do worse when our defense reduces the number of chances. Maybe it prevents our goalies from getting into the zone or something? They like to be busy, and suck when they are not. IDK, but our goalies better figure that crap out because Keefe is not going to tell his defense to start giving up more chances so his goalie can start making saves he should be making.

I’m confused… they’re 18th in chances against meaning better results. 13th best I guess, but you’d want the chances against to be lower. I feel like we are saying the same thing though.

 

[Mess]

As opposed too people not watching games?

People that rely heavily on analytics to form opinions, are simply looking at the data accumulated in a spreadsheet and never need to watch the game.

That data in those spreadsheets are only as good and accurate as the people using the eye test to compile them.

There are a lot of things that don't appear in the spreadsheet that one could determine only while watching directly however, that would provide more context then simply a number in a column.

The spreadsheet sees all HDSC as equal, but if a goalie is facing Auston Matthews HDSC that would be different then facing Justin Holl HDSC so using a simple accumulated number taken from a designated spot on the ice, tells only a very small part of the overall story. Are those HDSC from top 6 elite scoring forwards or bottom 6 grinders and mucker for example, analytics does not determine that.

What happens if the shot is taken from a HDSA but then is blocked by the opposition player before it even gets to the goalie, is it still a HDSC?

HDSC is simply from a spot on the ice, but a goalie could be down or a rebound could leave a player standing near the net with a wide open net and not be considered a HDSC. etc etc.

Josh Anderson's 1st goal yesterday was a 6 inch tap in goal right in front of the net and Cole Caufield scored from outside the HDSC and even medium danger yesterday, standing below the face-off dots and off to the side of the net.

Point being analytics is very subjective that shouldn't be driven simply by where some shots happen to be taken from.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Sandin has made more than his fair share of gaffes. Having him in the rotation with dermott, liljegren and sometimes Holl made perfect sense. In terms of this back to back, they probably wanted him in against Columbus, which should have been the harder of the two games, so he rests vs Montreal.

not even close. Sandin should 100% be a regular defenseman, as he's been on a different level to Holl and Dermott. Liljegren deserves to be as well, but I can understand that he sometimes gets the short end of the stick due to his waiver situation

 

[Burnie97]

 

[ACC1224]

As opposed too people not watching games?

Sometimes you have to wonder.

 

[ACC1224]

People that rely heavily on analytics to form opinions, are simply looking at the data accumulated in a spreadsheet and never need to watch the game.

That data in those spreadsheets are only as good and accurate as the people using the eye test to compile them.

There are a lot of things that don't appear in the spreadsheet that one could determine only while watching directly however, that would provide more context then simply a number in a column.

The spreadsheet sees all HDSC as equal, but if a goalie is facing Auston Matthews HDSC that would be different then facing Justin Holl HDSC so using a simple accumulated number taken from a designated spot on the ice, tells only a very small part of the overall story. Are those HDSC from top 6 elite scoring forwards or bottom 6 grinders and mucker for example, analytics does not determine that.

What happens if the shot is taken from a HDSA but then is blocked by the opposition player before it even gets to the goalie, is it still a HDSC?

HDSC is simply from a spot on the ice, but a goalie could be down or a rebound could leave a player standing near the net with a wide open net and not be considered a HDSC. etc etc.

Josh Anderson's 1st goal yesterday was a 6 inch tap in goal right in front of the net and Cole Caufield scored from outside the HDSC and even medium danger yesterday, standing below the face-off dots and off to the side of the net.

Point being analytics is very subjective that shouldn't be driven simply by where some shots happen to be taken from.

That's what I always wondered.

 

[Racer88]

So anyone wanna give a recap on what happened last night ? trying to steer clear of the pgt

The Leafs sucked and the goalie sucked and they lost

 

[Apex Predator]

The Leafs sucked and the goalie sucked and they lost

And Muzzin got hurt

 

[Racer88]

And Muzzin got hurt

Ya that’s unfortunate. I hope he is going to be ok

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I’m confused… they’re 18th in chances against meaning better results. 13th best I guess, but you’d want the chances against to be lower. I feel like we are saying the same thing though.

No we have the 8th fewest HDCA/60 since December 1st, and 13th fewest since the start of the year.

I think you are looking at the inverse from me. So we have the 18th highest HDCA (where 32nd is the lowest and therefore the best), whereas I am looking at #1 being the lowest HDCA and therefore the best; we are 13th.

So yes, we are saying the same thing.

 

[Leaf Rocket]

What happened? You don't want to know what happened

We lost a game, and now the sky is falling and everything and everyone sucks. The usual.

this is why lol, i have very few spoons to spend.

-marazk had a terrible 1st period.
- defense is making terrible decisions.
-Muzzin knocked himself out.
-at points it looked like the whole team was frustrated. Keefe was pissed all game, the forwards were frustrated with the defense, the defense frustrated with the goalie, and overall it wad ugly to watch

ah damn...n than you

 

[Leaf Rocket]

The Leafs sucked and the goalie sucked and they lost

fair rnough lol

 

[The Podium]

People that rely heavily on analytics to form opinions, are simply looking at the data accumulated in a spreadsheet and never need to watch the game.

That data in those spreadsheets are only as good and accurate as the people using the eye test to compile them.

There are a lot of things that don't appear in the spreadsheet that one could determine only while watching directly however, that would provide more context then simply a number in a column.

The spreadsheet sees all HDSC as equal, but if a goalie is facing Auston Matthews HDSC that would be different then facing Justin Holl HDSC so using a simple accumulated number taken from a designated spot on the ice, tells only a very small part of the overall story. Are those HDSC from top 6 elite scoring forwards or bottom 6 grinders and mucker for example, analytics does not determine that.

What happens if the shot is taken from a HDSA but then is blocked by the opposition player before it even gets to the goalie, is it still a HDSC?

HDSC is simply from a spot on the ice, but a goalie could be down or a rebound could leave a player standing near the net with a wide open net and not be considered a HDSC. etc etc.

Josh Anderson's 1st goal yesterday was a 6 inch tap in goal right in front of the net and Cole Caufield scored from outside the HDSC and even medium danger yesterday, standing below the face-off dots and off to the side of the net.

Point being analytics is very subjective that shouldn't be driven simply by where some shots happen to be taken from.

The chances of scoring from a high danger area is almost the same between Matthews and a grinder in the league. That’s why it’s considered a high danger area….

What makes goal scorers/snipers valuable is there ability to beat the goal from a low or medium danger area.

Analytics aren’t meant to replace the eye test, but rather compliment it, despite what the “lawl nerds” crowd seem to think. And most analytics are compiled from a collection tangible evidence, so I don’t know how you consider it subjective.

The fact that you think analytics are more subjective than the eye test is laughable.

 

[CelticDruid]

New guy dressing tonight?

Rumour has it that Harry Styles will be dressing tonight.

 

[Maplebeasts]

People that rely heavily on analytics to form opinions, are simply looking at the data accumulated in a spreadsheet and never need to watch the game.

That data in those spreadsheets are only as good and accurate as the people using the eye test to compile them.

There are a lot of things that don't appear in the spreadsheet that one could determine only while watching directly however, that would provide more context then simply a number in a column.

The spreadsheet sees all HDSC as equal, but if a goalie is facing Auston Matthews HDSC that would be different then facing Justin Holl HDSC so using a simple accumulated number taken from a designated spot on the ice, tells only a very small part of the overall story. Are those HDSC from top 6 elite scoring forwards or bottom 6 grinders and mucker for example, analytics does not determine that.

What happens if the shot is taken from a HDSA but then is blocked by the opposition player before it even gets to the goalie, is it still a HDSC?

HDSC is simply from a spot on the ice, but a goalie could be down or a rebound could leave a player standing near the net with a wide open net and not be considered a HDSC. etc etc.

Josh Anderson's 1st goal yesterday was a 6 inch tap in goal right in front of the net and Cole Caufield scored from outside the HDSC and even medium danger yesterday, standing below the face-off dots and off to the side of the net.

Point being analytics is very subjective that shouldn't be driven simply by where some shots happen to be taken from.

People that take the time to understand and use analytics watch games bro. Any insinuation otherwise is ridiculous. They're not perfect but you're supposed to combine them with the eye test to get the best picture of what's happening on the ice.

 

[al secord]

Bush Man cometh...ineth?

 

[ULF_55]

The chances of scoring from a high danger area is almost the same between Matthews and a grinder in the league. That’s why it’s considered a high danger area….

What makes goal scorers/snipers valuable is there ability to beat the goal from a low or medium danger area.

Analytics aren’t meant to replace the eye test, but rather compliment it, despite what the “lawl nerds” crowd seem to think. And most analytics are compiled from a collection tangible evidence, so I don’t know how you consider it subjective.

The fact that you think analytics are more subjective than the eye test is laughable.

I really haven't spent a great deal of time looking at the new stats.

Do they include shooting percentages? Age? Experience? Strength of shot? Speed of shot? Accuracy of shot? Things that can be quantified.

 

[MSZ]

I have a feeling that Laine is going to score 5 tonight.

 

[TopCheese]

Bush Man cometh...ineth?

no one seems to know

 

[DarkKnight]

I’m expecting a team playing with jam tonight.

 

[Teeder Keon]

I’m expecting a team playing with jam tonight.

Awesome call !

 

[Teeder Keon]

I have a feeling that Laine is going to score 5 tonight.

And be on for 8 against ….

 

[ShaneFalco]

The blue jackets goalie is 30 years old and making his 2nd NHL start in 4 years so we know how this goes