Half-Assed GDT: Game #3: Blues in SinCity - 10pm Eastern

[Halak Ness Monster]

I see a guy that still is deferring to his linemates too much. Multiple times he is in the right place to make the play, just trying to make a pass too many instead of shooting. That strikes me as a temporary problem. I see his offensive production to be a less important factor in whether he stays up, and his defensive reliability and work ethic as the bigger issues for the powers that be. From that standpoint, I doubt they send him back to juniors. It will certainly be an interesting decision, and it is coming on fast with 3 games down already.

Yeah I’m not implying he shouldn’t be up here because he doesn’t have the polished offensive skills to be a top 9 forward.

I’m asking: what do we want our 19 year old first round pick to be focusing on? Being a 4th line high energy, defensive forward? A job he is likely ready for intelligence and effort wise but maybe not strength wise.

Or do we want him to focus on polishing his offensive skills, gaining confidence with the puck, and bringing that part of his game closer in line with his play without the puck?

Does this team need to keep Neighbours up right now for his defensive ability? Are we gonna be lacking in that department when Sunny returns?

A lot to consider. I don’t think it’s a forgone conclusion that he can’t grow his game at the junior level. I think he could offensively.

 

[Robb_K]

I do. More than a skill's coach, I think he needs positive reinforcement for making slick plays. If he works his ass off this season and gains 5-10% speed boost. He is still slow by NHL standards. He is not going to see the benefit of that hard work. If he practices for days so he can pick the corners with his shot, an NHL goalie is still gobbling that muffin up no matter where it is. So what's the point of the work if it isn't leading to tangible on-ice benefits. Kid's clearly a hard worker. You can see it. So I am not worried he is going to stop working. I am worried he will continue to work on the things giving him success and keeping him on the roster, while ignoring the things that he really needs to work on to become more than a 4th liner. Putting him down a level (which unfortunately we can't) or two, will allow him to see the benefit from those incremental increases in his offensive game. With enough incremental increases, he may approach something close to NHL top 6 ready in those areas.

Also, when you need to make big changes to something, a lot of times you need to re-work the things from the ground up. I am no expert here, but he may need to make some fundamental changes to his stride or shot. Doing so will make him worse before he is better. There is no incentive to do so when he is fighting for every second of NHL ice time. There is when he is dominating the OHL but knows he needs to be better next year to earn a spot in the NHL.

Ideally, we could send him to The AHL to work on his skating and shooting. I HOPE we have coaches that are good teachers and are good at developing players there. So far, The Blues system hasn't been above average in those areas. But, unfortunately he can only return to his Juniors team. After the 9 games is probably too soon to produce a good effect. Maybe keeping him up the 39 games, and with luck, he'll play for Team Canada in the tournament, and he can work on what Berube and The Blues' coaches will have worked on with him and tell him to improve, when he returns to his Junior team. Spending a half-season training and playing with The Blues will give him a better start than sending him down not very long from now.

 

[Robb_K]

Yeah I’m not implying he shouldn’t be up here because he doesn’t have the polished offensive skills to be a top 9 forward.

I’m asking: what do we want our 19 year old first round pick to be focusing on? Being a 4th line high energy, defensive forward? A job he is likely ready for intelligence and effort wise but maybe not strength wise.

Or do we want him to focus on polishing his offensive skills, gaining confidence with the puck, and bringing that part of his game closer in line with his play without the puck?

Does this team need to keep Neighbours up right now for his defensive ability? Are we gonna be lacking in that department when Sunny returns?

A lot to consider. I don’t think it’s a forgone conclusion that he can’t grow his game at the junior level. I think he could offensively.

A good compromise might be keeping him up for the half-season, (39 games played), so he can get training and work in on NHL-level requirements on both sides of the ice (defensive AND offensive). Then, (with a little luck), and based on his NHL experience, maybe he could play for Team Canada in The World Junior Tournament (or would he become ineligible because of so many Pro games played?), and afterwards, spend the rest of the Junior season working mainly on his offensive skills and game.

 

[PocketNines]

Kostin got dinged on a f***ing make up call. Give me a break (not necessarily directed at you Chicago). It was a minute after the penalty on Krebs ended. If Kostin wasn't playing, the next Blue who got close to a Knight would have gotten the penalty. As for Kostin's track record, when players play hard and physical, they get more penalties. Its a trade off you make for what that physical play gives you.

It's funny to see you so angry about "this trait has existed and could improve but is worth tracking." Look at the position the venom is putting you in. Don't you ever think a move or two ahead?

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

A good compromise might be keeping him up for the half-season, (39 games played), so he can get training and work in on NHL-level requirements on both sides of the ice (defensive AND offensive). Then, (with a little luck), and based on his NHL experience, maybe he could play for Team Canada in The World Junior Tournament (or would he become ineligible because of so many Pro games played?), and afterwards, spend the rest of the Junior season working mainly on his offensive skills and game.

WJC eligibility is determined by DOB. NHL games played are irrelevant to eligibility (although Team Canada is likely to look favorably on anyone with more than a handful of NHL games at that point).

 

[mw2noobbuster]

Obviously there are some points of criticism for this team so far, they're not perfect. But one thing that can't be denied is that this team is fun as hell to watch. We all remember the Hitchcock days. While we may be giving up more odd-man chances, we're scoring goals, and we got a goalie that can keep us in the game. I love it.

 

[Chet Manly]

Ole Stone hands looked pretty sharp last night. Hopefully he keeps it up.

Binny looks incredible so far.

Kids look great too.

After starting the season with 3 road games... coming home with 6 points.... No complaints from this guy.

 

[Mike Liut]

I kept hearing how injured Vegas is. Do they not realize we were missing Buchnevich and Sunqvist? If Vegas offered Stone and Patches to us for Buch and Sunny, I’d easily say no.

 

[rumrokh]

I kept hearing how injured Vegas is. Do they not realize we were missing Buchnevich and Sunqvist? If Vegas offered Stone and Patches to us for Buch and Sunny, I’d easily say no.

I was going to argue this, but Stone's shot-rate plummeted last year. He played all but one game - was he nursing an injury all damn year (or covid)? He still produced, but his shooting percentage was through the roof. Unless there's a good explanation for that, that's actually really concerning for how Stone will age - not just in the distant future, but pretty much immediately. O'Reilly had a similar down year in shots a couple seasons ago and bounced back, so maybe it's an anomaly for Stone and he'll bounce back, but that's something to keep an eye on.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Yeah I’m not implying he shouldn’t be up here because he doesn’t have the polished offensive skills to be a top 9 forward.

I’m asking: what do we want our 19 year old first round pick to be focusing on? Being a 4th line high energy, defensive forward? A job he is likely ready for intelligence and effort wise but maybe not strength wise.

Or do we want him to focus on polishing his offensive skills, gaining confidence with the puck, and bringing that part of his game closer in line with his play without the puck?

Does this team need to keep Neighbours up right now for his defensive ability? Are we gonna be lacking in that department when Sunny returns?

A lot to consider. I don’t think it’s a forgone conclusion that he can’t grow his game at the junior level. I think he could offensively.

I'm reminded of Schwartz' early usage in the NHL. If the AHL were an option for Neighbors, its a lot easier question to answer. I'm not sure what the best thing would be, but my impression is that the team is planning to keep him up.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

I was going to argue this, but Stone's shot-rate plummeted last year. He played all but one game - was he nursing an injury all damn year (or covid)? He still produced, but his shooting percentage was through the roof. Unless there's a good explanation for that, that's actually really concerning for how Stone will age - not just in the distant future, but pretty much immediately. O'Reilly had a similar down year in shots a couple seasons ago and bounced back, so maybe it's an anomaly for Stone and he'll bounce back, but that's something to keep an eye on.

Yes, maybe you don’t want to take the Stone contract long term out of these concerns, but for 2021 I take the Vegas players easily.

 

[Joshuar56]

I kept hearing how injured Vegas is. Do they not realize we were missing Buchnevich and Sunqvist? If Vegas offered Stone and Patches to us for Buch and Sunny, I’d easily say no.

I'd say no only because it would put us over the cap. If the cap wasn't an issue? There's no way you pass up that trade. Stone is worth more than Sundqvist and Buch alone.

 

[rumrokh]

Yes, maybe you don’t want to take the Stone contract long term out of these concerns, but for 2021 I take the Vegas players easily.

Yea, if you could magically make that flip only for the current season and without considering contracts, obviously. But when examining it a little deeper, I saw Stone had that sudden shot-rate fall-off and was kinda surprised. I expected it to be a slam-dunk in general, but it's a lot less of one than my initial gut feeling was. Not just long-term, but there are more immediate concerns there than I would have guessed.

 

[Mike Liut]

I'd say no only because it would put us over the cap. If the cap wasn't an issue? There's no way you pass up that trade. Stone is worth more than Sundqvist and Buch alone.

I still wouldn’t do it. Buch is an ascending player who could easily be a 30g player. Good size and plays a great 2-way game. Fast too (can’t believe we got him for Blais. That was a heist). And Sunny is one of key cogs to this team.

 

[Brian39]

I still wouldn’t do it. Buch is an ascending player who could easily be a 30g player. Good size and plays a great 2-way game. Fast too (can’t believe we got him for Blais. That was a heist). And Sunny is one of key cogs to this team.

This is like the Family Guy mystery box scene. Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty are who they are, but Buch could turn into anything. He could even turn into a Stone or Pacioretty!

Mark Stone had 33 goals in the last full NHL season, was on pace for 26 goals in 2019/20 and was on pace for 31 goals last year. He's a point per game player, scoring 138 points in his 140 games with Vegas and 262 points in 257 games in his last 4 seasons (plus the start of this year). He is also undoubtedly a top 10 defensive winger in the game and he is bigger than Buch. Buch's absolute ceiling is what Mark Stone currently is and it is very likely that Buch never reaches that ceiling. Stone is the best two-way winger the league has seen since Hossa was in his prime.

Max Pacioretty was on pace for 41 goals last season and 37 the season before. He has six 30 goal seasons in his career which easily would have been 7 if last year wasn't shortened. He's scored at a 70 point pace over his 3+ seasons with Vegas. He's also a good defensive player with a career expected +/- of +103.7 and very strong possession numbers. He's slightly smaller than Buch, but the gap is less than the gap between Buch and Stone. By the time Pacioretty was Buch's current age, he had 107 goals through 319 NHL games and had put home a 33 goal season and a 39 goal season. We will be fairly lucky if Buch ever hits the level that Pacioretty is currently at.

Factoring in contracts and considerations beyond this season, I wouldn't make the trade because it would decimate our ability to fill out the roster. But if we're just talking about who is better right now, Stone and Pacioretty are massively ahead of Buch and Sunny. From 2019/20-today Stone and Pacioretty are 15th and 21st in points league-wide. 41st and 10th in goals. They are +42 and +41 in that stretch. 12th and 13th in even strength scoring. They are genuinely top-end offensive producers who are also very good defensively. Stone and Pacioretty are two thirds of a top 10 first line. The other third of that line is Chandler "technically a 1C Stephenson. This isn't even close. For just this season the on-ice contributions and roles of Stone/Pacioretty are miles ahead of Buch and Sunny. Our equivalent forwards would be ROR and Perron.

In a game this season between the two teams, Vegas missing Stone and Patches is unquestionably a bigger deal than our team missing Buch and Sunny.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

This is like the Family Guy mystery box scene. Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty are who they are, but Buch could turn into anything. He could even turn into a Stone or Pacioretty!

Mark Stone had 33 goals in the last full NHL season, was on pace for 26 goals in 2019/20 and was on pace for 31 goals last year. He's a point per game player, scoring 138 points in his 140 games with Vegas and 262 points in 257 games in his last 4 seasons (plus the start of this year). He is also undoubtedly a top 10 defensive winger in the game and he is bigger than Buch. Buch's absolute ceiling is what Mark Stone currently is and it is very likely that Buch never reaches that ceiling.

Max Pacioretty was on pace for 41 goals last season and 37 the season before. He has six 30 goal seasons in his career which easily would have been 7 if last year wasn't shortened. He's scored at a 70 point pace over his 3+ seasons with Vegas. He's also a good defensive player with a career expected +/- of +103.7 and very strong possession numbers. He's slightly smaller than Buch, but the gap is less than the gap between Buch and Stone. By the time Pacioretty was Buch's current age, he had 107 goals through 319 NHL games and had put home a 33 goal season and a 39 goal season. We will be fairly lucky if Buch ever hits the level that Pacioretty is currently at.

Factoring in contracts and considerations beyond this season, I wouldn't make the trade because it would decimate our ability to fill out the roster. But if we're just talking about who is better right now, Stone and Pacioretty are massively ahead of Buch and Sunny. From 2019/20-today Stone and Pacioretty are 15th and 21st in points league-wide. 41st and 10th in goals. They are +42 and +41 in that stretch. 12th and 13th in even strength scoring. They are genuinely top-end offensive producers who are also very good defensively. Stone and Pacioretty are two thirds of a top 10 first line. The other third of that line is Chandler "technically a 1C Stephenson. This isn't even close. For just this season the on-ice contributions and roles of Stone/Pacioretty are miles ahead of Buch and Sunny. Our equivalent forwards would be ROR and Perron.

In a game this season between the two teams, Vegas missing Stone and Patches is unquestionably a bigger deal than our team missing Buch and Sunny.

But,.....

 

[Sgt Schultz]

Krug said that they are able to play better together now that they are actually allowed to hang out together outside of games. Covid really screwed up their chemistry last year.

That does not surprise me at all. It would have had a greater impact on players transitioning to new teams. Even vets like Krug. That's one reason I was not too alarmed about his slow progress in integrating into the team/system.

The next time they are in Philly they should take him to The Jack's and see if lightning strikes twice. Unfortunately, that is not until late February and the night after an afternoon game in Chicago.