While awaiting puck drop and at intermission, some telling statistics.
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Behind the Bruins: 15 stats that help explain the good and the bad of an overall strong start
By
Conor Ryan Boston.com Staff,Updated December 12, 2023, 6:26 p.m.
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Goalies Jeremy Swayman (left) and Linus Ullmark have again been pivotal to Bruins' second straight strong start.BARRY CHIN/GLOBE STAFF
The Bruins are already well past the first-quarter mark of the season, with Boston pacing the Atlantic Division with an 18-5-3 record.
Here are 15 stats and trends that help explain the Bruins’ strong start and map out a few flaws that must be corrected in the months ahead:
▪ The main reason why Boston still sits atop the Atlantic lies in the play of goalies Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark. Among the 52 goalies with at least 500 minutes of ice time this season, Swayman (.858) and Ullmark (.850)
rank fifth and sixth, respectively, in save percentage on high-danger shots.
Per MoneyPuck, Swayman and Ullmark have posted a combined 14.3 goals saved above average.
▪ The Bruins rank third in the NHL at 2.50 goals allowed per game, but the structure in front of Swayman and Ullmark has left a bit to be desired.
Per Natural Stat Trick, Boston has been pedestrian in negating quality chances — ranking 15th in the league in five-on-five high-danger chances against per 60 minutes of play (11.11).
▪ David Pastrnak has diversified his arsenal. Of
his 16 goals this season, 14 have been credited as wrist shots. Pastrnak’s emphasis on playmaking has also yielded impressive returns, with him on pace for a career-high 73 assists and 123 points.
▪
As noted by colleague Kevin Paul Dupont this week, the Bruins haven’t doled out a lot of hits this season. Trent Frederic leads the Bruins with just 48 — with 54 NHLers ahead of him in that category. Boston’s top hitter on the blue line? Brandon Carlo with 29 over 26 games.
▪ A glimpse at the Bruins’ zone time at even strength shows a team settling for far too many one-and-done surges.
As noted by NHL EDGE player and puck-tracking data, the Bruins have spent just 40.7 percent of their even-strength time in the offensive zone, ranking below the 50th percentile of NHL teams.
The Bruins have not adhered to an effective forechecking game that can wear opponents down and extend their own time in the attacking zone. Teams such as the Panthers and Hurricanes have forged long playoff runs in recent years by pinning teams in their end and forcing miscues under duress. It might be time for the Bruins to take a page out of that book.
▪ Jim Montgomery has emphasized quality over quantity with shot selection since taking over as Bruins coach. Boston ranks 11th in five-on-five goals (56) this season, but it’s not for lack of trying. The Bruins are in the 82nd percentile with 243 shots on goal from high-danger areas.
A shot-first mentality from the blue-line corps is needed to help capitalize on instances when Bruins skaters are crowding the opposing crease.
Jim Montgomery has emphasized high-quality shots in his time as head coach of the Bruins.JOHN TLUMACKI/GLOBE STAFF
▪ A six-on-five tally from the Panthers’ Brandon Montour set the stage for the Bruins stunning first-round collapse last April. Those
last-minute woes have carried over. In 34:41 of ice time against an empty net this season, the Bruins have relinquished seven goals, most in the league.
▪ Boston’s power play has been solid (22.9 percent, ranking 11th). But the penalty kill has snuffed out scoring chances at an elite level, ranking first with an 89.9 percent kill rate. The Bruins have spent only 55.3 percent of their time on the PK in the defensive zone, which ranks in the 93rd percentile.
Carlo and Derek Forbort have been defensive anchors on the penalty kill, but they’ve been just as good at five-on-five. Boston has outscored teams, 34-15, in that duo’s combined 695 minutes of five-on-five ice time.
▪ For all the talk surrounding Boston’s pivot pipeline following the retirements of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci, Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha have largely held their own.
Coyle is on pace for a career-high 66 points, and Zacha a career-high 60.
▪ Mason Lohrei has showcased plenty of potential, but it’s evident that he still has some work to do in the defensive zone. During his 12 games, the Bruins have given up 22 five-on-five goals. Lohrei has been on the ice for 13 of those.
▪ It’s to be expected for a youngster such as Lohrei to have growing pains in the D-zone. What has been a surprise is the lackluster returns from the top pairing of Charlie McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk.
In their 144:42 of five-on-five ice time together, the Bruins have been outscored, 5-3. From 2020-23, the Bruins outscored teams, 86-32, in that tandem’s 1,362:17 of five-on-five reps.
▪ With Bergeron, Krejci, and Tomas Nosek in place last season, Boston ranked second in the NHL in faceoff win percentage (54.5). This season has been a bit more of a struggle, as the Bruins rank 13th (51.0). Johnny Beecher (55.0 percent) and Coyle (53.7) have been bright spots, while Matt Poitras (43.7) remains a work in progress.
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Johnny Beecher has won 55 percent of his faceoffs this season.MADDIE MEYER/GETTY
▪ Be it injuries or the sizable overhaul of forward corps, Montgomery has largely put his lines in a blender.
Per Natural Stat Trick, the Bruins have rolled out 14 different lines that have logged at least 20 minutes of five-on-five time together. The strongest returns have come from James van Riemsdyk, Coyle, and Frederic, with the Bruins outscoring teams, 7-2, in their 122:07 of five-on-five time together.
▪ Jake DeBrusk is fifth among Bruins forwards in ice time per game (17:02). But his value will wane unless he starts finding the net. DeBrusk is on pace for just 13 goals — a major dip from his 27 in just 64 games last season. Rough timing for a player set to hit free agency.
▪ The Bruins’ dearth of salary-cap space this past summer forced them to get creative. So far, bargain-bin signings van Riemsdyk (16 points) and Danton Heinen (9) have been home runs. Among standard NHL contracts,
CapFriendly has van Riemsdyk’s as the sixth-best value as far as cost per point ($62,500). Heinen, meanwhile, has more five-on-five points than former Bruin Tyler Bertuzzi (7) — on a deal $4.725 million cheaper than that of the Leafs forward.
Conor Ryan can be reached at
[email protected]