Freidman: don't expect Campbell to be back Leafs inital offer was 2.75 million per year

[HockeyVirus]

Dubas has stuck with this vision of not expending high draft capital on a goalie prospect and running a 1A/1B tandem for less cap hit.

It never made sense from the jump. You have a top heavy cap allocation which handicaps icing four deep lines. So with a tandem, you have an average at best starter playing half the game behind sub par bottom six talent and the other half behind offensively minded stars in the top six. Not to mention a D-core built around an OFD in Rielly.

The tandem approach works with a balanced cap allocation, a defensively minded blueline built around a horse like Slavin/Pietrangelo/etc., and four competitive two-way forward lines.

It's a fine logic in a vacuum considering the amount of 1st rd goalie selections that bust and the inconsistent nature of the average goalie's career, but this is not the team build for that approach.

Gibson is the best option right now and his term bides you time to draft and develop a future homegrown starter, but you have to start spending top 60 picks to do that. Campbell/Kuemper/Blackwood/etc. caliber starters are only going to get more exposed as Muzzin, Giordano and Brodie age out.

If Dubas traded for Gibson, the same fans crying for it would roast him as an idiot for trading the package required for a goalie with bad stats at the time. It's so predictable it's silly. 99% of leaf fans were ecstatic when he closed on a deal with Tavares. Now they pretend it was a terrible move and they knew all along.

 

[HockeyVirus]

They are young players who only have that many years of service because of how exceptional they all are and how quickly they became nhl players.
Look at colorado or Tampas forward group and see how many more years those key guys have under their belts.

This is what is hilarious. At age 24, MacKinnon hadn't gotten past the first round, and had actually missed the playoffs several years despite being on a playoff team his rookie year. They ignore it though, and say at 24 our players should have won cups.

The history books are filled with teams who didn't figure it out until their mid 20's or even their 30's. People think it's different to lose in round 1 or 2. It's really not when round 1 you face contending teams yearly. This core will figure it out.

The same group crying about Kadri winning it and how bad the trade is will be crying when Nylander / marner / whoever are lifting it elsewhere. Just like they did with Kessel and Bozak after hating on them before Kadri.

 

[All Mod Cons]

I can never keep up with whether we trust the media or not and if we belive the rumours

 

[ITM]

I can never keep up with whether we trust the media or not and if we belive the rumours

Sanity demands that you don't keep up with whether or not you can trust the media or place stock in rumors floated for viewership/ad revenue/profit.

Conclusive information is all you should care to keep up with...for the few seconds it's relevant... and then the practice of sound sanity hygiene begins again.

 

[ACC1224]

If Dubas traded for Gibson, the same fans crying for it would roast him as an idiot for trading the package required for a goalie with bad stats at the time. It's so predictable it's silly. 99% of leaf fans were ecstatic when he closed on a deal with Tavares. Now they pretend it was a terrible move and they knew all along.

This is what is hilarious. At age 24, MacKinnon hadn't gotten past the first round, and had actually missed the playoffs several years despite being on a playoff team his rookie year. They ignore it though, and say at 24 our players should have won cups.

The history books are filled with teams who didn't figure it out until their mid 20's or even their 30's. People think it's different to lose in round 1 or 2. It's really not when round 1 you face contending teams yearly. This core will figure it out.

The same group crying about Kadri winning it and how bad the trade is will be crying when Nylander / marner / whoever are lifting it elsewhere. Just like they did with Kessel and Bozak after hating on them before Kadri.

The most frustrating part of this loss is knowing we have to listen to half our fanbase and other fanbases BS for another year. Then when they do win a round and go on a run, these same fans will pretend they were never doubters.

I predict within 5 years Dubas is seen in the same light as Sakic.

Love how those mythical 'same fans' are constantly trotted out to make some non existent point which is never revisited and corrected when it never comes true.

 

[RoadWarrior]

The leafs are in a desperate situation looking for a goaltender so of course this leads to all sorts of wild speculation.

The bottom line is that they have more of a cap problem than a goalie problem.

Solve the cap issue and you can sign an experienced goaltender not named Mrazek.

How do you solve the cap problem? First you fire the management team responsible for the cap hell in the first place. Secondly you trade or buy out some junk like Kerfoot, Holl and Muzzin. No return is expected but the cap space is the win.

 

[Dekes For Days]

For 11m, I expect more.

Whether or not you expect more, the description you gave of both was completely flip flopped.

 

[socko]

I can never keep up with whether we trust the media or not and if we belive the rumours

You have to determine whether the media person has an agenda or not.
If it's the coming weather, you can trust. They can still be wrong, but it will be an honest wrong.
Sports, that's very iffy, doubtful.
Politics, never.

Lookout for weasel words, that means they're completely bs-ing for clicks or to push agenda.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Whether or not you expect more, the description you gave of both was completely flip flopped.

Whatever I said in both posts is what I saw.

Not impressed.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

Whoa. Dreger was on Overdrive TSN saying that he thinks Campbell will get 6 million per (due to a weak goalie market). Holy Yikes!

 

[rocketman588]

Whoa. Dreger was on Overdrive TSN saying that he thinks Campbell will get 6 million per (due to a weak goalie market). Holy Yikes!

Great time for us to be desperate for a goalie

 

[DarkKnight]

Love how those mythical 'same fans' are constantly trotted out to make some non existent point which is never revisited and corrected when it never comes true.

And the funny part, if you asked this guy actually playing offence if the Leafs hadnt made it out of the first round ao far when Dubas was hired, he’d say he would be long gone by now. Oh the revisionism. Imagine a poster criticizing fans who’ve watched six consecutive exits complaining, what kind of a messed up fan base thinks that’s “crying”.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Kadri drives play, JT is a passenger that looks for his linemates to do the dirty work. Not worth 11m imo.

Maybe now. Tavares spent years on the island playing alongside the likes of Matt Moulson, Parenteau, Okposo and Lee propping up their numbers.

Now he's just starting to regress and also has the benefit of playing alongside Nylander who has tons of speed and is excellent at zone entries, that he doesn't need to carry the play as much. Definitely not worth 11M though.

 

[Nylander88]

If there's anything to the rumours about the Devil's having significant interest in Campbell, it seems almost too perfect an opportunity to pry Blackwood out of there in a deal. Could end up a steal at his age finally getting to play infront of a decent team for once. And worst case, you have a 1B caliber goalie for a year that isn't breaking the bank at 2.8mil.

 

[2 Slick]

Whoa. Dreger was on Overdrive TSN saying that he thinks Campbell will get 6 million per (due to a weak goalie market). Holy Yikes!

.897 in the playoffs, had trash stats for most of the regular season except for the first 4-5 weeks of the regular season. I like him, but he's NOT worth that damn much. HELL no.

 

[ChickenMcNugget]

.897 in the playoffs, had trash stats for most of the regular season except for the first 4-5 weeks of the regular season. I like him, but he's NOT worth that damn much. HELL no.

Well he was an all star caliber then may have been was forced to play through injury.

But if he is worth that much than it is going to be quite interesting how Dubas gets not 1 but 2 goalies.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Well he was an all star caliber then may have been was forced to play through injury.

But if he is worth that much than it is going to be quite interesting how Dubas gets not 1 but 2 goalies.

There’s not a lot of goalies worth that kind of money. $6m would put him on par with markstrom aav wise and $100K shy of Hellebyuck making him tied as the 6th highest paid goalie in the league. That’s a hard pass for me regardless of what the other options are this summer.

 

[LeafEgo]

There’s not a lot of goalies worth that kind of money. $6m would put him on par with markstrom aav wise and $100K shy of Hellebyuck making him tied as the 6th highest paid goalie in the league. That’s a hard pass for me regardless of what the other options are this summer.

Not performance wise but he's worth what the market bears. I agree with your sentiments regarding Campbell but that's pretty tough talk when your alternative, as it stands, is Mrazek.

We'll go down the list of very slim chances: 1. Sorokin 2. Demko 3. Helly 4. Gibber

And likely settle with a stop gap in an overpaid Campbell or if we can a Varly, MAF, Husso, Reimer, Holtby type.

But it's going to be tough going.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Not performance wise but he's worth what the market bears. I agree with your sentiments regarding Campbell but that's pretty tough talk when your alternative, as it stands, is Mrazek.

We'll go down the list of very slim chances: 1. Sorokin 2. Demko 3. Helly 4. Gibber

And likely settle with a stop gap in an overpaid Campbell or if we can a Varly, MAF, Husso, Reimer, Holtby type.

But it's going to be tough going.

Well I mean every team every year is looking to adjust some aspect of their team. Carolina walked away from both their goalies last off season and ended up with a decent duo in Andersen and rantaa. I don’t think any of the “very slim” options are happening. I think Varly makes a good bit of sense and is a short term option and can probably be had
off the island as they have their starter locked in and need money to re-sign other players.
If jacks getting north of 4.5-5 and more term than 3 maybe 4 years then I really hope it’s with some other team. Heck even the high end of both parameters 4 x 5m would have me pause and consider other options.

 

[hockeywiz542]

LeBrun rumblings: How does Anthony Duclair's injury affect the Panthers' offseason?

Also, how is the UFA goalie market shaping up? Will Nazem Kadri and Ondrej Palat remain with their teams? Is Zdeno Chara coming back?

theathletic.com

The UFA goalie market

It’s not that deep, that’s for sure. But there are four quality names at the top.

Ville Husso is the most intriguing name to me as far as taking a long-term bet on a UFA goalie after the season he had in St. Louis. He’s also the youngest of the top UFA goalies at 27.

Future Hockey Hall of Famer Marc-André Fleury, 37, could put a lot of contenders over the top on a one-year deal (Wild GM Bill Guerin reiterated Wednesday he remains interested in trying to get Fleury signed). Jack Campbell, 30, and Darcy Kuemper, 32, round out the top four in whatever order you want to place them.

All indications are that the Cup champs want to bring Kuemper back, and the interest is mutual.

“Darcy loved it there, how could you not?’’ Kuemper’s agent Ben Hankinson said Wednesday. “It doesn’t get any better than the year he had with the Avalanche. So hopefully we can figure out a deal within the next week or so. Otherwise, there are 31 other teams out there that will be talking to him.’’

But to me, Husso is the action guy here because of his age. The Blues are locked in long-term on Jordan Binnington, so all signs point to Husso hitting the UFA market.

“I expect it to be a robust market for him,’’ Husso’s agent Todd Diamond said Wednesday. “He’s put himself in a very good position. Let’s see what happens here coming up.’’

I believe the Edmonton Oilers will be among nearly 10 teams calling on Husso come July 13, which makes obvious sense.

Finally, there’s Campbell, who by all indications loves it in Toronto. But, with each passing day, it sure feels like he’s headed to market.

“We’re having discussions but nothing material to report,’’ Campbell’s agent Kurt Overhardt said Wednesday referring to talks with the Leafs.

Given the number of teams hoping for a goalie upgrade and given how lean the UFA goalie market is, it probably makes sense for Overhardt to at least hear from other teams while keeping the Leafs in the loop.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

If we look at this from the perspective of upside/contract/asset cost for everyone except Hellebuyck:

Campbell
Upside: Could be amazing and be good enough to get it done, could be a total liability like he was this year as well. Has had just as polarizing of a playoff run. Still very unproven, and he is 30+ now.
Contract: Very likely to be overpaid, because he is at best a 4-4.5 mill on a 2 or 3 year deal. If a team wants to give him more term or a 5+ mill contract, the upside is simply not there.
Asset Cost: Zero, which is ideal.

Varlamov
Upside: He is older, but he knows how to be a starter, and has had playoff success with iffy Islander teams. Will probably need a strong backup to split the net with him just so he doesn't get worn down, but the combination of risk vs. upside is probably no worse than anyone not named Hellebuyck.
Contract: Only one year left at 5 mill. We could swing it, but we'd need to move Mrazek (possibly to the Islanders themselves).
Asset Cost: That along with his NTC may be the most prohibitive part. He should not cost premium assets, even if money like Mrazek goes the other way.

Kuemper
Upside: He got it done, but he is 32. Can he do it again? He has been very up-and-down in Colorado. He wasn't exactly a guy who dominated.
Contract: Probably more than we can afford and more than he is worth.
Asset Cost: Nothing.

Gibson
Upside: Who knows. Is he going to continue to be subpar. Is he going to return to top form. Somewhere in between?
Contract: 4th highest paid goalie in the league with 5 years left. It is not a matter of 'if' but how much money Anaheim has to take back, because nobody who wants him can afford the contract and he is a negative asset at the full price. Even then, for the amount of risk involved, it will give a lot of teams pause.
Asset Cost: Depends on how much money Anaheim is taking back, but even then, I don't see teams throwing huge assets at a guy who has struggled like he has.

Fleury
Upside: He is old, but he is Fleury. Does he have enough in the tank for another run? Will we need a strong backup?
Contract: Given his age, he shouldn't be demanding huge money. He is likely looking for "fit" more than money anyways. That fit is likely the biggest thing that could prevent us from getting him.
Asset Cost: Zero.

Husso
Upside: He is unproven, but has a recent history for success and is still fairly young. He is the kind of guy who could get things done.
Contract: Should be reasonable, but who knows if someone will overpay for him.
Asset Cost: Zero.

Blackwood/Samsonov
Upside: Young and prestigious with that upside, but both have hit rough patches. Will be important for a strong goalie department, but Mrazek could be a good partner for either.
Contract: Lowest out of the bunch by far. We can probably afford to keep Mrazek around at their cap hits.
Asset Cost: Probably nothing much. Maybe a B-prospect and something small.

Out of all of those risks, a young guy like Husso/Blackwood/Samsonov could form a strong tandem with Mrazek next year (or someone else if the right deal is there). With a strong team and a hopefully high caliber goalie coach working with them, maybe that is the type of swing which connects for a Cup?

Then you have guys who are more proven, but higher cap hit and greater risk of getting worn down.

I think it is pretty clear that Gibson should be at the bottom of the list right now though. Terrible contract. Possibly the highest asset cost. And even the upside is iffy.

 

[FlareKnight]

If we look at this from the perspective of upside/contract/asset cost for everyone except Hellebuyck:

Campbell
Upside: Could be amazing and be good enough to get it done, could be a total liability like he was this year as well. Has had just as polarizing of a playoff run. Still very unproven, and he is 30+ now.
Contract: Very likely to be overpaid, because he is at best a 4-4.5 mill on a 2 or 3 year deal. If a team wants to give him more term or a 5+ mill contract, the upside is simply not there.
Asset Cost: Zero, which is ideal.

Varlamov
Upside: He is older, but he knows how to be a starter, and has had playoff success with iffy Islander teams. Will probably need a strong backup to split the net with him just so he doesn't get worn down, but the combination of risk vs. upside is probably no worse than anyone not named Hellebuyck.
Contract: Only one year left at 5 mill. We could swing it, but we'd need to move Mrazek (possibly to the Islanders themselves).
Asset Cost: That along with his NTC may be the most prohibitive part. He should not cost premium assets, even if money like Mrazek goes the other way.

Kuemper
Upside: He got it done, but he is 32. Can he do it again? He has been very up-and-down in Colorado. He wasn't exactly a guy who dominated.
Contract: Probably more than we can afford and more than he is worth.
Asset Cost: Nothing.

Gibson
Upside: Who knows. Is he going to continue to be subpar. Is he going to return to top form. Somewhere in between?
Contract: 4th highest paid goalie in the league with 5 years left. It is not a matter of 'if' but how much money Anaheim has to take back, because nobody who wants him can afford the contract and he is a negative asset at the full price. Even then, for the amount of risk involved, it will give a lot of teams pause.
Asset Cost: Depends on how much money Anaheim is taking back, but even then, I don't see teams throwing huge assets at a guy who has struggled like he has.

Fleury
Upside: He is old, but he is Fleury. Does he have enough in the tank for another run? Will we need a strong backup?
Contract: Given his age, he shouldn't be demanding huge money. He is likely looking for "fit" more than money anyways. That fit is likely the biggest thing that could prevent us from getting him.
Asset Cost: Zero.

Husso
Upside: He is unproven, but has a recent history for success and is still fairly young. He is the kind of guy who could get things done.
Contract: Should be reasonable, but who knows if someone will overpay for him.
Asset Cost: Zero.

Blackwood/Samsonov
Upside: Young and prestigious with that upside, but both have hit rough patches. Will be important for a strong goalie department, but Mrazek could be a good partner for either.
Contract: Lowest out of the bunch by far. We can probably afford to keep Mrazek around at their cap hits.
Asset Cost: Probably nothing much. Maybe a B-prospect and something small.

Out of all of those risks, a young guy like Husso/Blackwood/Samsonov could form a strong tandem with Mrazek next year (or someone else if the right deal is there). With a strong team and a hopefully high caliber goalie coach working with them, maybe that is the type of swing which connects for a Cup?

Then you have guys who are more proven, but higher cap hit and greater risk of getting worn down.

I think it is pretty clear that Gibson should be at the bottom of the list right now though. Terrible contract. Possibly the highest asset cost. And even the upside is iffy.

A good look at the options. Although I think upside should be a bit more positive for Gibson. If we're just looking at upsides then he's going to only be 29 when the season starts, has mostly been pretty healthy, and if he can get back to a level he's proven capable of being at the NHL level then he'd be good. What pushes him down as an option is the contract without retention, that you have to trade for him, and the risk that he's inexplicably lost "it" before age 30. But I'd see the highest upside if they can get a retention on that deal since he'd be locked into multiple years when the cap eventually starts going up.

I don't know what the Leafs honestly do here. Going to gamble no matter what. Maybe Varlamov makes the most sense? There are definitely options for the Leafs. Wish I knew if any were good enough options to help get us into a deep playoff run. Just kind of sucks that we honestly might have to overhaul both starter and backup in the same offseason without a lot of cap space.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

A good look at the options. Although I think upside should be a bit more positive for Gibson. If we're just looking at upsides then he's going to only be 29 when the season starts, has mostly been pretty healthy, and if he can get back to a level he's proven capable of being at the NHL level then he'd be good. What pushes him down as an option is the contract without retention, that you have to trade for him, and the risk that he's inexplicably lost "it" before age 30. But I'd see the highest upside if they can get a retention on that deal since he'd be locked into multiple years when the cap eventually starts going up.

I don't know what the Leafs honestly do here. Going to gamble no matter what. Maybe Varlamov makes the most sense? There are definitely options for the Leafs. Wish I knew if any were good enough options to help get us into a deep playoff run. Just kind of sucks that we honestly might have to overhaul both starter and backup in the same offseason without a lot of cap space.

He is 29 but has had a fairly hefty workload in his career. Holtby effectively broke down at 29 and now he is a tandem guy at best.

He could very well bounce back, but I am not seeing a top 5 goalie in him anymore and he is getting paid like a top 5 goalie. Even with money retained and the cap going up, he is still going to be expensive and hasn't played to that level for 3 years. Add in that Anaheim probably wants something good for him and I think he is just not attractive as an option vs. pretty much everyone else on that list.

 

[Antropovsky]

He should chase the money for sure.... he's worked his butt off to get to this status. I thought he gave us a chance in both Montreal series and Tampa series. No complaints.

 

[capfit9]