Freidman: don't expect Campbell to be back Leafs inital offer was 2.75 million per year

[Ziggdiezan]

The HDA -- high-danger scoring chances against was 496 for the Leafs and the league average was 543. If you look at HDGA -- High-danger scoring chances against that lead to goals, the Leafs had 75 and the league average was 72.

So it's not a Leafs system issue. Campbell just didn't give us the saves that we needed especially when we needed them. He's not a goalie that is going to steal you a game when you're offence dries up, as ours has in key playoff games.

Thanks for the data, what years did those cover? Guessing a few years as I didn't see how the leafs average could be fairly similar yet Campbell's could be so bad.

I would expect the HDA to be low as the leafs dominant play so don't give up a ton of chances against, high danger or otherwise. I wonder how the HDGA per HDA shapes up, I.e. a measure of the percent amount of high danger chances that result in goals. I'm guessing the leafs would rank highly. From your values, league average = 0.1326 while the leafs = 0.1512. That's 13.1% more than the league average, meaning when the leafs do give up a high danger chances its more likely to result in a goal than average. This fits the eye tests as giving up odd man rushes and breakaways are going to result in more goals than other high danger opportunities.

 

[CabanaBoy5]

Thanks for the data, what years did those cover? Guessing a few years as I didn't see how the leafs average could be fairly similar yet Campbell's could be so bad.

I would expect the HDA to be low as the leafs dominant play so don't give up a ton of chances against, high danger or otherwise. I wonder how the HDGA per HDA shapes up, I.e. a measure of the percent amount of high danger chances that result in goals. I'm guessing the leafs would rank highly. From your values, league average = 0.1326 while the leafs = 0.1512. That's 13.1% more than the league average, meaning when the leafs do give up a high danger chances its more likely to result in a goal than average. This fits the eye tests as giving up odd man rushes and breakaways are going to result in more goals than other high danger opportunities.

Hey Zigg, those figures are for 2021-2022. You can find some more info here:

2021-22 Toronto Maple Leafs Roster, Stats, Injuries, Scores, Results, Shootouts | Hockey-Reference.com

Check out the latest Toronto Maple Leafs Roster, Stats, Injuries, Scores, Results, Shootouts and more on Hockey-Reference.com

www.hockey-reference.com

 

[Le Cobra]

I predict the Oilers/insert team name here will acquire Jack and will win the Cup next year. #LeafsLuck

the goaltending isnt broken, its the coaching. Dont fix what aint broke.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I predict the Oilers/insert team name here will acquire Jack and will win the Cup next year. #LeafsLuck

the goaltending isnt broken, its the coaching. Dont fix what aint broke.

Coaching has nothing to do with an 897 save% that's just goaltending being shit

 

[Confucius]

Coaching has nothing to do with an 897 save% that's just goaltending being shit

Yet Vaselesky had the same .897 save% against us and most think he is a star. Can’t please everyone I guess. We have to find someone to tar and feather.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Yet Vaselesky had the same .897 save% against us and most think he is a star. Can’t please everyone I guess. We have to find someone to tar and feather.

yeah not even close to the same you know why?

Vasi is a back to back to champion,

Vasi has a Vezina

Vasi could retire tonight and be a lock for the hall of fame

Vasi won the series

Vasi is in the conference

Vasi wins because he's a winner that's what he does

Jack has had 5 chances over last 2 years to win a series

he is 0-5

Jack loses because Jack is a loser that's what he does he loses

It's time to move on and bring in a REAL #1 not a backup that's going to get paid like a #1 because November is a month that exists

 

[cupcrazyman]

Campbell can't win when it counts.

 

[Confucius]

Campbell can't win when it counts.

Well I did read something about small sample size. So it’s big enough if a guy does poorly but not big enough if he does well.

 

[Sol]

Be careful with John Gibson. He’s been overworked by Anaheim, faced a ton of losing and rubber in the past 3 years and also been hurt at times. He was once a young shining star but you’ll have to see what the downturn in Anaheim has done to him. He’s a terrific athlete and locked in for a while but do your homework on this one or it’s an albatross contract. If it works it’s a home run.

I think Anaheim broke him mentally

 

[Jmo89]

Well I did read something about small sample size. So it’s big enough if a guy does poorly but not big enough if he does well.

I know it's a small sample size but I can't trust a goalie who has been as atrocious as Campbell has been in overtime in the playoffs. You have to give your team a chance to win in OT.

Take away game 5 against Montreal and he's allowed 2 goals on something like 7 shots. Both of which the Leafs were outshooting their opponent. Neither goal was very good either (although the Dermot giveaway should have never happened.)

 

[ChickenMcNugget]

yeah not even close to the same you know why?

Vasi is a back to back to champion,

Vasi has a Vezina

Vasi could retire tonight and be a lock for the hall of fame

Vasi won the series

Vasi is in the conference

Vasi wins because he's a winner that's what he does

Jack has had 5 chances over last 2 years to win a series

he is 0-5

Jack loses because Jack is a loser that's what he does he loses

It's time to move on and bring in a REAL #1 not a backup that's going to get paid like a #1 because November is a month that exists

Doesn't that prove his point lol. If the best #1 goalie can win THAT series with a sv% similar to Campbell. How can you shift all of the blame on Campbell?

Look I am not a superfan of Campbell either but Dubas got rid of Andersen (with 0 return value). So Campbell is all we got. Hoping for a miracle in FA or through trade is not a good strategy.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Doesn't that prove his point lol. If the best #1 goalie can win THAT series with a sv% similar to Campbell. How can you shift all of the blame on Campbell?

Look I am not a superfan of Campbell either but Dubas got rid of Andersen (with 0 return value). So Campbell is all we got. Hoping for a miracle in FA or through trade is not a good strategy.

You know what it says to me? If Jack Campbell can't win THAT series when the best goalie in the game is playing the worst hockey of career then he can't do it and it's time to move on.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Jack has had his chance 5 games past 2 years to get team to round 2 .. 5 failures .. bottom line time to move on

 

[ChickenMcNugget]

You know what it says to me? If Jack Campbell can't win THAT series when the best goalie in the game is playing the worst hockey of career then he can't do it and it's time to move on.

Jack has had his chance 5 games past 2 years to get team to round 2 .. 5 failures .. bottom line time to move on

Odd that this sentiment doesn't apply to the forward group who have been doing this far longer.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Odd that this sentiment doesn't apply to the forward group who have been doing this far longer.

Because the forward group actually performed at least the big boys did. Matthews had 9 points, Marner had 8, Nylander had 7, Tavares had 6, would have been 7 if not for Holl.

The depth didn't perform but the big boys did.

Jack Campbell didn't

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Doesn't that prove his point lol. If the best #1 goalie can win THAT series with a sv% similar to Campbell. How can you shift all of the blame on Campbell?

Look I am not a superfan of Campbell either but Dubas got rid of Andersen (with 0 return value). So Campbell is all we got. Hoping for a miracle in FA or through trade is not a good strategy.

Because in the moments when it really mattered, like Game 6 OT and Game 7, the best goalie stood on his head and played well above his save percentage that was due to weaker performances in non-elimination games.

Problem with Campbell is he isn’t a big game goalie just like some of our core guys. Vasi is the most clutch goalie we may ever see despite his .897 that series.

Game 6 OT last year vs Montreal, Leafs were all over the Habs and Price was a wall while Campbell let’s in a crappy wrister from far out. Game 7 against the Habs, garbage goal by Gallagher. Game 6 OT this year, Vasilevskiy made save after save, Campbell let’s in the first decent chance they get.

He’s not good and needs to be replaced with something better. Period.

 

[ChickenMcNugget]

Because in the moments when it really mattered, like Game 6 OT and Game 7, the best goalie stood on his head and played well above his save percentage that was due to weaker performances in non-elimination games.

Problem with Campbell is he isn’t a big game goalie just like some of our core guys. Vasi is the most clutch goalie we may ever see despite his .897 that series.

Game 6 OT last year vs Montreal, Leafs were all over the Habs and Price was a wall while Campbell let’s in a crappy wrister from far out. Game 7 against the Habs, garbage goal by Gallagher. Game 6 OT this year, Vasilevskiy made save after save, Campbell let’s in the first decent chance they get.

He’s not good and needs to be replaced with something better. Period.

Sure let's just not talk about how our 40M core cannot score more than 1 goal in game 7 scenarios but instead blame the 5M goalie because he cant get a shutout.

 

[BrannigansLaw]

Sure let's just not talk about how our 40M core cannot score more than 1 goal in game 7 scenarios but instead blame the 5M goalie because he cant get a shutout.

How about just being the better goalie in Game 6 and not even letting it get to Game 7 last year and this year? Is that too much to ask?

 

[Racer88]

Because the forward group actually performed at least the big boys did. Matthews had 9 points, Marner had 8, Nylander had 7, Tavares had 6, would have been 7 if not for Holl.

The depth didn't perform but the big boys did.

Jack Campbell didn't

The depth didn’t perform because either, we can’t afford good depth because all the money goes to the “big boys” ……….or…….Dubas has no idea how to evaluate depth.
pick your poison.

 

[ITM]

Informed complaints being what they are, our realistic options past Jack Campbell will be more of the same: Goalies who we hope will win important games but who have no track history of having done so.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

The depth didn’t perform because either, we can’t afford good depth because all the money goes to the “big boys” ……….or…….Dubas has no idea how to evaluate depth.
pick your poison.

I don't know if it's either one

I mean I would have fired Dubas but it's not for his depth signings

Kerfoot had 51 points,
Bunting had 20+ goals and 60+ points for 950K,
Kampf had 12 goals,
Kase was a good signing when he played he scored 14 goals
, Engvall had 15 goals.

The Leafs had good depth players they just didn't show up in the playoffs, particularly Kerfoot, he arguably cost them the series in game 6 he cost them 2 goals

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Odd that this sentiment doesn't apply to the forward group who have been doing this far longer.

I get what you are saying BUT tender is da most important position in hockey .. without a clutch $$ tender no team no matter how good is winning a Cup .. Avs got lucky Kadri ran Binner otherwise Avs would be out of playoffs already .. we need to give 3 kids a chance to see which one of them is da guy .. my bet on Woll from seeing him in elite tournaments over da years .. da kid has da special ability to rise up and play much better when lights are da brightest

 

[TGB]

yeah not even close to the same you know why?

He has a point and it's too difficult for you to counter him?

Because the forward group actually performed at least the big boys did. Matthews had 9 points, Marner had 8, Nylander had 7, Tavares had 6, would have been 7 if not for Holl.

The depth didn't perform but the big boys did.

Jack Campbell didn't

Campbell played the game to a tie, dude, it's just one of those goals was called off. I know it's easy to dismiss that fact because it would make it harder for you to point a finger, but it's the truth. After all, the Leafs played what is looking like the best team in the league to a 2 game lead. They just lost it. Why?

Well, let me put it this way: as soon as I saw that elite forward group you're going on about spend the entire first period shooting pucks at Vasi's chest, like they have ALWAYS done these last few years when their backs are against the wall, I knew the game was lost and turned the game off. So I was able to call a game's result on the actions of the OFFENSE, not the defense.

But you go ahead and keep pointing that finger at the easiest target you can find. Wouldn't be much fun around here if everyone posted reasonably.

He’s not good and needs to be replaced with something better. Period.

Good thing Goalie-mart is having a sale on all-star #1 goalies! We have our pick.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

He has a point and it's too difficult for you to counter him?


Campbell played the game to a tie, dude, it's just one of those goals was called off. I know it's easy to dismiss that fact because it would make it harder for you to point a finger, but it's the truth. After all, the Leafs played what is looking like the best team in the league to a 2 game lead. They just lost it. Why?

Well, let me put it this way: as soon as I saw that elite forward group you're going on about spend the entire first period shooting pucks at Vasi's chest, like they have ALWAYS done these last few years when their backs are against the wall, I knew the game was lost and turned the game off. So I was able to call a game's result on the actions of the OFFENSE, not the defense.

But you go ahead and keep pointing that finger at the easiest target you can find. Wouldn't be much fun around here if everyone posted reasonably.



Good thing Goalie-mart is having a sale on all-star #1 goalies! We have our pick.

Game 7 happened because Jack Campbell shit the bed in games 2, 4, and 6

if he gives them 2 good games in a row at literally ANY point in the series they win the series

he didn't, he can't do it he's faced 8 shots in in 3 OT games, he has made 5 saves.

he simply can't do it.

find a guy who can.

 

[Racer88]

I don't know if it's either one

I mean I would have fired Dubas but it's not for his depth signings

Kerfoot had 51 points,
Bunting had 20+ goals and 60+ points for 950K,
Kampf had 12 goals,
Kase was a good signing when he played he scored 14 goals
, Engvall had 15 goals.

The Leafs had good depth players they just didn't show up in the playoffs, particularly Kerfoot, he arguably cost them the series in game 6 he cost them 2 goals

Your exactly right…….it’s about when you produce that separates the great depth from irrelevant depth. So far Dubas has not been able to identify those types.
because the overall stats look ok we are going to run it all over again on the hopes and wishes from Dubasthat they can rise above what they are.
the same goes for Matthews and Marner. Couldn’t score when we needed them to. Couldn’t put the nail in Tampa’s Coffin when they had a chance